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On February 19 2016 12:56 rsoultin wrote:
voting scott for info cause voting for info is bad and i sooooo want to be a baddie Since you still seem to be here, I disagree with your analysis that mafia is stupid with regards to the night actions.
I see it more like mafia who is more worried about power roles, thought that Shapelog and sicklucker were both power roles, and were worried about potential medic save on Shapelog (even if sicklucker is the medic).
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On February 19 2016 13:01 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 12:47 Trfel wrote:
Anyway, I believe Tictock had some questions for me regarding my Tumblewood read? I've said all that I have to say about it, I really do think that he is town because that is by far the simplest explanation, and anything else is pure paranoia. Oh, and Tictock, I feel that your vote is suspicious because "I wanted to lynch Palmar because if he is scum, Trfel is scum too" feels like a really horrible reason to me. I guess I can see it coming from town, but it feels so fabricated, and a bit unrefined. I guess I thought it was widely acknowledged that lynching for information is not good, which is largely what this reason came down to, and I struggle a bit to see this come from experienced town.
Back to my voting analysis, yay. Eh I think your stretching what happend if you think I voted Palmar kus I thought it would give info about your alignment. I made that comment more as an afterthought than as a reason why I voted Palmar. Hm, okay. Then, why did you vote for Palmar?
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Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia 
Am I being stupid and wasting my time?
The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated.
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Finished Vote Count Analysis
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2016 08:47 Trfel wrote:
Simplified Vote Count Analysis
Assumptions:
GlowingBear and Shapelog are both town (claimed blues)
scott31337 is mafia
The purpose of this simplified vote count analysis is to see how much sense scott31337 makes as mafia, judging by the events including and after the start of the wagon on him.
30 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (1): Trfel
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (2): The Shining, Breshke
I have an exam soon, so I'm not going to color in all of the names, but the point is that the three leading wagons are all town. So, mafia probably hasn't had to do much at this point.
15 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (2): Trfel, Breshke
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (1): The Shining
Immediately after this, The Shining votes for Tumblewood, and sicklucker switches to Tumblewood as well, but then switches back to Palmar. Tictock switches his vote to Palmar, which seems suspect. Then GlowingBear votes for nooniansoong.
This suggests that if scott31337 is mafia (going to stop stating this assumption from here on out), The Shining is town, and Tictock is likely mafia.
Rsoultin's vote switch changes the vote count from 4 to 2 to 3 each, with five minutes left to go to the deadline. I don't think that this vote makes rsoultin town, even if scott31337 is scum. After rsoultin switches votes, she doesn't seem so confident in Palmar being town, but then criticizes GlowingBear and The Shining for what they ought to be doing with their votes, despite seemingly not having her own opinion? Note, regardless of scott31337's alignment, rsoultin's posts in the last five minutes seem strange.
Then Eden and Tumblewood and scott31337 come in and vote. And I'm going to be late for my exam so I'll finish this analysis later T.T Sorry about that. To make this a bit simpler for myself, here's the vote count after rsoultin switched. Vote Count ~5 minutes to EoDPalmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, Tictock scott31337 (3): Trfel, Breshke, rsoultin GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Tumblewood (1): The Shining nooniansoong (1): GlowingBear So if we're assuming that scott31337 is mafia, it's him and two others. Scott31337 wasn't there, so he couldn't vote to save himself. This makes it harder for mafia to defend him, and mafia would be extremely worried about him being lynched here. This is in spoilers, so I don't have to make it pretty, if you're reading this, you're asking for it XD I decided to read from 42 minutes before the lynch, where I started considering lynching scott31337 (the earliest possible start of this wagon). Assumptions are that scott31337 is mafia, and both Shapelog and The Shining are town. On February 18 2016 05:22 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2016 05:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Yo why aren't we lynching Shining? My one-point case was pure gas. Can't whiff. eh could lynch him, too, tbh...but the thing is he's a beast to have in the game after d1 if he's town and i can see him just not having the time here. i'm horribad at catching him when he's scum though so -shrugs- And what about Palmar? Nooniansoong was gone the entire time. If nooniansoong is scum with scott31337, that leaves two of the three scum team (at least) not present, and not able to defend scott31337. This means that it's very possible that scott31337 is scum and there was actually minimal-no scum presence to move the lynch. Tumblewood's aggression towards my suggestion to lynch scott31337 seems noteworthy. The way that rsoultin suddenly swings towards being willing to lynch The Shining, coincidentally right after Eden comes in trying to lynch The Shining, feels a bit opportunistic. Reading through the thread, there's a LOT more influence for the push onto scott31337 in the last 30 minutes of the day than it seems like from the voting thread. And rsoultin also makes plenty of sense with scott31337 as mafia. At this point, I can actually see basically anyone being mafia with scott31337. For example, let's imagine mafia is scott31337, GlowingBear, and rsoultin. Rsoultin was looking for lynches other than scott31337 all day, eventually resorting to a bus with five minutes left. GlowingBear said that he's willing to lynch Palmar, ended up pushing nooniansoong, and completely avoided the scott31337 wagon. With scott31337 being afk, I can potentially see this coming from a mafia team. Rsoultin is fairly bus-happy, and she's in a relatively good spot as mafia, and mafia would probably want someone to bus here, just in case. GlowingBear doesn't even vote until 6 minutes before End of Day, at which point he's mostly committed to the nooniansoong push, but as mafia, he always had a chance to switch votes for the reason being that nooniansoong wasn't going to be lynched and he already said he was fine with Palmar. Basically, this makes sense.
Conclusion: Townreading scott31337 due to the voting patterns at End of Day 1 is incorrect. There are many possibilities that result in End of Day playing out as it did with scott31337 being mafia.
This post does not scumread anyone necessarily, this is largely based on vote timing alone.
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On February 19 2016 13:29 Tictock wrote:As for your townread on Tumble I think you are putting way too much emphasis on meta for a player you have one game to look at. You say his dramatic posting style change probably means he's town, but I have to think he might do that as scum as well. Especially given that Shape was a scummate in his last game but is clearly town here. I have issues with the way he pushed Shape yesturday. He basically said what I just told you to shape about trying to read him, then said Shape was playing a lot like he did as scum in the last game and voted him. I also thought his vote onto Palmar was pretty suspect since Palmar had been a "Bad lynch" in an earlier post. When the wagon on Shape fell apart he just settled with Palmar, or more accurately he denounced all the other wagons. Show nested quote +On February 18 2016 05:56 Tumblewood wrote:
I can't sleep easy if I see any of the other wagons getting lynched over Palmar. ##vote: Palmar It doesn't add up. Tictock, I understand what you're saying, and maybe you're right. I've thought about it a lot, and I still feel that Tumblewood is town. He hasn't posted in a while, I'm going to worry about other things now until either he posts more or it's closer to the deadline, because I have nothing new to say.
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On February 19 2016 13:34 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 13:26 Trfel wrote:Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia Am I being stupid and wasting my time? The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated. well seeing as that's impossible, maybe you should tell me what you don't understand You didn't want to lynch The Shining because he's really good later on.
But you were willing to lynch Palmar?
Then as soon as Eden came back in and said he wanted to lynch The Shining, you suddenly produced a reason to be okay with lynching The Shining. And decided that despite wanting to lynch scott31337 earlier, you didn't want to lynch him because he didn't answer your questions (huh?)
Then you switched from Palmar to scott31337, the main reason seeming to be trusting my read on Palmar? Which led you to talk to nooniansoong and GlowingBear in ALL CAPS telling them that wasted voting is stupid. For GlowingBear, you hinted (while using all caps) that he should vote to save Palmar, without actually telling him to save Palmar? And all this time, you don't have your own reason to townread Palmar?
I really don't get it.
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Okay, so it wasn't nooniansoong, it was The Shining.
It seems like I'll have to keep working on this. Just, if you're mafia and you push your filter over 15 pages so I can't read it, then you're evil.
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Meh, I'm being too lazy. What good is a super careful analysis if you're too lazy to actually read people's filters? XD
It'll just come out exactly like I go into it thinking. Anyway, I'm pretty confident in Tictock being town, because he genuinely feels like he's trying to solve the game and he's been sharing good thoughts (one example being his vote analysis 21 minutes after EoD, which is an unnatural time for mafia to be providing critical thinking). In addition, his posts have felt quite free; looking through Tictock's mafia games, he feels more structured as mafia than I'm seeing in this game.
I think I remember people being suspicious of Tictock, but I'm lazy, why? I get the Palmar vote being suspicious, I guess, but what else?
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Sorry for the post spam, but I'm going to bed now, so you don't have to deal with me for a while, anyway.
If I'm set with my townreads of Tictock and Breshke, which I think I am (please, please say if you are in doubt about these players! Write it in bold and red if you need to get my attention that way! Say my name, that helps, I'm bad at reading!), then there are three mafia in the following five:
Tumblewood
nooniansoong
scott31337
rsoultin
GlowingBear
And the problem arises in that I'm getting some town feels from four of them (all but scott31337). Okay, hm, maybe not GlowingBear either, actually, though the fake vigilante claim feels a bit weird from mafia, but how strongly....
Currently leaning towards scott31337 and GlowingBear being mafia, but really I'm not sure because both of those reads feel like a stretch already
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I mean, I really liked Tictock's tinfoil! To me that felt very towny.
Eden listed Tictock as obvious town, Shapelog also listed Tictock as confidently town. Were there any other notable EoD list posts I should be paying attention to? And I didn't feel a lack of scumreads from Tictock, he had a push on sicklucker and while he was gone until about an hour before EoD1, he's been systematically figuring things out and developing scum reads since.
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I kind of just want to go with my townread on Tumblewood and the game is solved.
scott31337
nooniansoong
GlowingBear
rsoultin
1 mislynch remaining. Lynch nooniansoong last?
Feels way too easy though.
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1 mislynch left. We missed a vig shot.
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There are only two problems with a scum team of Scott GB and one of rsoultin and nooniansoong.
First, it seems like everyone at this point is scumreading both Scott and GB. I can't see this being right, there's no way it's this easy.
Second, if nooniansoong or rsoultin is mafia, they're playing quite well. I have a difficult time seeing this while their team is being this lazy and inactive.
I don't know
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2 lynches total, not two mislynches. Two mislynches means we lose, and I'm talking about the mislynches SD have and can still win with.
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Yeah I could really do GB over Scott. I'll try and read GBs filter.
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GlowingBear is mafia and I will vote for him when I get back to a computer.
His push on nooniansoong is full of logical inconsistencies and doesn't show a town mindset. His explanation for his behavior at End of Day doesn't quite make sense, and his play fits mafia motivation throughout. Since the lynch, he hasn't actually contributed anything.
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On February 20 2016 04:49 The Shining wrote:
Wait.
Trfel, what happened between your vca implying TT was likely mafia to believing hes town and asking if others believe you? My vote count analyses were not to determine the alignments of people, but rather to try and figure out Scott's alignment. IE does Scott make sense as mafia given the votes. And Tictock does make sense with Scott as mafia.
However, I'm not quite so sure about TT being town or Scott being mafia. But I am getting pretty confident in rsoultin being mafia, so there.
I don't think it's something I'll be able to explain so hopefully rsoultin alignment will become obvious in time one way or another.
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Rsoultin, what the heck?
I mean you can be as random as you like but it won't make me townread you.
I still think that GB is mafia and scott really may not be, idk.
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Not agreeing. It seemed towny, but I didn't agree.
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GlowingBear is mafia because he's not freaking out and he's STILL not doing anything, just reacting.
Glad to finally be back at a computer so I can vote for him.
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EPT
