TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker

On December 14 2015 08:14 LightningStrike wrote:

Miller's aren't aware......... Are you mafia?

On December 14 2015 08:29 LightningStrike wrote:

Good. Now can you tell me who else is mafia with you?

On December 15 2015 06:08 LightningStrike wrote:
Sorry I been conserving my posts a little bit more as I had 1 page of posts already so I trying to limit myself a little bit now. But Koshi pretty much town for me atm. Also Damdred if you are here can you give me your thoughts on TT or other The smurf guy please?

On December 17 2015 07:11 Damdred wrote:
Most of your reasoning is bullshit meta that doesn't make anyone scum obviously.

On December 18 2015 08:37 Shapelog wrote:
Damred have you read the KubRels vs Koshius and Shapanders case with refree guess star TS and Kush-lush-fush yet?
If not your way behind kiddo

On December 18 2015 14:02 Tictock wrote:
Humm, so reading through Rels filter again he's been fairly aggressive this game.

I like some of the pushes and questions he asks early on (several of them were questions I had reading through the game as well). I kinda gave him a pass based on some of this early activity and the fact that he wasn't really trying to buddy anyone or lead the thread like I've seen him do as scum.

His first list post seems odd to me, like it's a pile of unfounded townreads.



LS is his top town based off the meta that LS never uses Caps as scum.

This is the first time Rels mentions Shape and Sukrit(Onegu).

The Koshi read is a bit odd too here, because Rels last post to Koshi was this


After that Rels is more focused on Me and Damdred, and then suddenly Koshi is probably town? I suppose Rels never actually accused Koshi of being scum, just implied he might be, but I can see a tr like this coming from a scum!Rels wanting Koshi to back off.

Rit is probably the read that makes the most sense here since Rels has been agreeing with his case on me and Rels questioned Rit on a few points. It's interesting then that Rit ends up last on this list then.

A post like this is pretty meaningless, since it's just a list of people with no reasons, besides those I can assume. It's also a nice post to make as scum since it makes it look like you are trying to get townreads but unfounded reads like these are really easy to flip later on.

It's also really Ironic that Rels made this post after scumreading Damdred for doing the same thing.

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Overall though I feel like Rels was rather involved with EoD.



This is actually an interesting post because if Rels is scum he knows that Rit is town here, which if Rels is pushing a town!Damdred might be a risky move. Rit and Damdred used to be known for having a strong Soul read on each other, Rit even mentioned it himself. So if scum!Rels were trying to push a ML here he probably wouldn't want to get Rit's input. This probably sounds like a load of WIFOM, but I think it's actually somewhat solid.

I also don't think it makes any sense for Rels and Damdred to both be scum here, there was no reason for Rels to make a case on Damdred after asking this:


Also Rels voted for Kush and it looked very likely that Kush was going to be lynched, if we are going down the road of scum!Damdred voted Vivax to protect Kush then there is absolutly no way that Rels is scum with him.

So 100% Rels and Damdred are never scum together this game

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This gets me to Rel's response to Tube's case.

This post might be huge but for clarity here are the posts I'm reffering too:
Tube's Post#719 with his Rels read + Show Spoiler +
Rel's Response(#724) to the case + Show Spoiler +

The first part is about Rel's LS read, which I agree is a weak read. However, the way Tube talks about Rels backing off from the fight feels wrong. There wasn't a fight at all, LS posted all caps in response to Damdred and Rels used the meta read that LS never does that as mafia to tr him there.

Now I think that's a bad reason to think LS is town, I mean how hard is it to hold the SHIFT key or tap Caps Lock and go "WTF?!? WHY YOU DO THAT!?!?!?"? I think it was Kush who pointed out that scum!Rels prob wouldn't flip LS to town so easly, and give up on mislynching him. While that is a decent line of thinking I can also see Scum!Rels make the meta read on LS, then see the caps and think "Shit now meta points to town" and quickly flip his read.

Humm I think I see what Tube was getting at with this LS read, but I don't think this makes Rels scum.

Tube making the point about Rels catching Onegu smurfing is definitly off though. Even if Tube is sitting there scratching his head about how Rels did that it makes far less sense that Rels would out his partners smurf than Rels took the time to search games.

The rest of Tubes case I can understand. Rels early case on LS was pretty shit, his early reads on me and gig were largely based on other's cases or OMGUS. I also agree that if Kush flips mafia then Rels is town as his vote was too early to be a bus when he could have easily tried to push back to me or onto GB. I'm not so sure that Kush flipping town makes Rels more likely to be mafia. I agree with Rels there that if D1 lynch was Town v Town then mafia are not likely to have been very involved.

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Continueing to look at the exchanges between Tube and Rels here.

Tube's response (#747) to Rels starts off talking about the Caps Lock stuff.


The bolded line I 100% agree with however the first part of this kinda feels like Tube is backtracking a little on his point there. Though if Tube is scum here I'm not sure why he would decide to start a fight with Rels of all players, especially when Tube thinks Rels will not backdown easily.

I disagree that Rels was uninvolved in D1 lynch though and him making a case on Damdred is a decent sign of that. I think Tube is focusing more on Rels vote on Kush:


Which is a pretty flippant vote but it also sounds a little frustrated that nobody will listen. Maybe I just sympathize here kus my push on Gig was just as ineffective.

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Looking at the Stuff between Rels and Koshi (and especially since I've proven to myself that a Damdred/Rels team is never a thing here) I can totally understand Rel's frustration. What Koshi is pushing here really makes no sense.

As for Rels himself... well I actually do see him possibly being scum this game. I pointed out theres some contradictions in his case on Damdred, but I also think it's interesting Rels didn't reffernce Season of the Witch 2 since his case is largely based on meta. SotW2 had Rels and Damdred as scum and Damdred was playing a rather inactive game there, so if Rels thinks Damdred is doing the same thing here I would think he should want to pull up meta from that game on Damdred. The stuff about his reads besides Damdred being based on thread sentiment or OMGUS is true.

I think Damdred pointed out that town!Rels likes to dog people about questions, maybe everyone has just done a good job responding to him this game but I haven't see him doing that here. I'm also used to Rels making more cases based on non-meta stuff, but I have seen him falling into these kinds of reads more and more.

Still I can't seem to let go of a gut feeling that Rels is town here due how he's been interacting with people and not trying to set himself up to look good.

Honestly I think I'd like to give Rels more time to try and Read him a little better.

Having said that I have to admit there are some decent points put against him, if I had to pick between Rels and Damdred I think I would prefer Rels. I'd still rather lynch Vivax or Gig before either of them.

I know Gig says he's busy for a couple more days due to finals but I can't help but feel like it's an excuse since he's basically said he has no reads besides thinking I'm scum for stuff Rit said. Since I seem to be one of the minority concerned about Gig I suppose I'm ok giving him another day. Still if he pulls a Scott here I might get somewhat unbearable later.

Actually I'm getting more flashbacks to last game with people's activity dropping off a little more today, hopefully that's not a trend. I've enjoyed the pace we've had thus far.

Sorry let me wrap up this mega-post by saying I think I need to filter dive Tube next. Based on my last catching up read of the game I like how much he's been putting into the game today and him pushing on Rels as opposed to an afk Vivax or less active Gig or Kush (hell Onegu and to a less extent Damdred actually fall into this category today) seems fairly towny to me. Still a couple of things Rels pointed out clicked with me so I should investigate further.

Right now my gut is telling me Rels vs Tube is town v town, but I could see one of them being mafia here.

On December 19 2015 05:02 GiygaS wrote:
Rels did not OMGUS Dam. He had a case on him before dam even mentioned rels.

On December 21 2015 03:50 Tictock wrote:


Well 1shot tracker isn't the strongest role, I'm not good at balance but I think you'd consider it like half a power role, which means if mafia has a RB then town likely has another .5 role, like Masons or Vet. Or it could be that more candy is present in the game.

I'm not at all convinced you are scum fake claiming like this, but it is def not outside the realm of possibility. Just like it's not totally outside the realm of possibility that I'm a wanderer. If you are scum it would make sense to claim a semi-powerful role but leave room in case there are other claims, especially if you think your claim is good enough that it can close out the game for you.

Honestly if I were scum I would have claimed that I shot Kush, or got a candy, or w/e the fuck I pleased to try and cover myself here. None of that is true though, so for me either you are lying or I am the 2nd wanderer in this game. If you are not scum here it actually means town probably has more roles or candy that might help us in this triple MyLo.