On December 04 2015 08:12 NocturneMage wrote: ##vote Half the Sky
I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it.
Well, that simplifies the day. One of NM and HTS is mafia; maybe both (but unlikely). Cool stuff (=
Palmar the last time you did a sex analysis it was very hilarious in XXX Night of Debauchery. Keep in mind the scum team in it was Onegu, Rayn, and JAT(Justanothertownie)
On March 11 2015 22:39 Palmar wrote: Sex analysis:
Oh the memories of that game esp this quote by Palmar about me(still true to this day) in a reads post:
On March 10 2015 19:45 Palmar wrote: Rayn I actually thought was town based on his "everyone who has posted is town". While I thought the JAT thing was uncertain I actually really liked the idea that everyone who had posted at that time was town. Then it turned out to be some weird trap play he hasn't pushed at all since so now I'm not so sure. I don't think I want to lynch him yet, but I'm very much conflicted on his alignment.
I liked marv's entrance, it felt unforced. Aside from that he's been a bit shit, but nothing out of the ordinary. No reason to tunnel right now. Slightly leaning town.
Onegu best player. I honestly have no idea what he is.
prplhz has been mega shit. Like he's actually a really good shot at being mafia because he had literally nothing exciting to say when he entered the game. It wasn't even funny, and generally mafia tend to be far less funny than townies.
rsoultin idk. I think I recall some semi-townie posts from early game. But I'm not gonna make a call one way or the other.
JAT. Leaning mafia, but I always lean mafia on him. he's not a hard read though when the game picks up. If prplhz shows up I'm more than ok with lynching JAT.
LS town. I'm pretty sure LS is so transparent that if he ever rolls mafia he'll just straight up admit to it. I loved his entrance and he is probably my strongest townread atm. His reaction to my scumclaim basically confirms him town to me.
ritoky feels actually sort of townie to me. I think this is mostly a tone read, his jokes feel like he really doesn't give a shit I guess.
Koshi. Got mad that he was being voted. Then after getting mad he did what we wanted him to do anyway which either means he's massively submissive or mafia.
Eden I don't know.
Damdred is probably town. I liked him in the early game so I think we should remain friends.
Anys back to game at hand: I finding it cute that only NM and James(Fidei) are the only ones that think I'm scum(at least from reading the thread) It maybe cute but its wrong!
There is not a snowball's chance in hell Daniele is town. Just vote her and be done with it. I'm on page 25 and I'm trying to fully catch up between seminars here.
Trfel is either mafia or insane and I'm leaning towards Mafia. Does a Trfel/HTS team make sense, that is another question.
LS is mafia because his filter is trash and knowing that mafia HTS modconfirmed herself in her first student game (as town) and knowing firsthand the quality of her coaching and knowing how intelligent she is (both in game and in life) it is EXTREMELY LIKELY she coached him to modconfirm himself.
There is a reasonable basis I think in the votes, I know I previously looked at HTS position from town LS but it's just as likely with Mafia LS, she would have been one of the last on LS which indicates a bus.
Like I said she is a weasel as mafia, she motivates her teammates she will absolutely coach LS to pull that shit - she did it herself.
On December 04 2015 23:16 NocturneMage wrote: There is not a snowball's chance in hell Daniele is town. Just vote her and be done with it. I'm on page 25 and I'm trying to fully catch up between seminars here.
Trfel is either mafia or insane and I'm leaning towards Mafia. Does a Trfel/HTS team make sense, that is another question.
LS is mafia because his filter is trash and knowing that mafia HTS modconfirmed herself in her first student game (as town) and knowing firsthand the quality of her coaching and knowing how intelligent she is (both in game and in life) it is EXTREMELY LIKELY she coached him to modconfirm himself.
There is a reasonable basis I think in the votes, I know I previously looked at HTS position from town LS but it's just as likely with Mafia LS, she would have been one of the last on LS which indicates a bus.
Like I said she is a weasel as mafia, she motivates her teammates she will absolutely coach LS to pull that shit - she did it herself.
Alex what do you think about my analysis of your accusing Dani?
phone post: okay, okay I can agree that at least one of the two is town and NM looks better than HtS. But pls dont ignore DYH agsin.
need to double check a few things in his defense compared to his filter. will be at a pc in around a hour to do so, but i would appreciate you guys at lesst giving DYH a quick glance.
On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
LS you are in the same boat as her you are doing dick all this game. Dick all.
I asked you and so did Shining for reads, anything to sort your alignment and the only thing either of us got last night was a bunch of non alignment indicative bullshit that got us nowhere.
On December 04 2015 08:12 NocturneMage wrote: ##vote Half the Sky
I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it.
Well, that simplifies the day. One of NM and HTS is mafia; maybe both (but unlikely). Cool stuff (=
On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
actually: can you explain that to me? i dont understand it?
To be honest she isn't going to post at all today, so for those of you looking at HTS do not eval her on being afk. Earliest she will return to anything TL is probably tomorrow and she's hosting a game in progress I think?
She is getting slightly better but she is putting herself first.
On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
No. I thought this at first but I have a reasonable argument against this. I realise it is pre flip association but this becomes more critical once Dani flips.
James your analysis of me is spot on but you know her and my knowledge of her well enough (based on how much time you two play dota together, sigh fuck dota seriously) that what you are saying can come from either alignment.
On December 04 2015 23:21 NocturneMage wrote: LS you are in the same boat as her you are doing dick all this game. Dick all.
I asked you and so did Shining for reads, anything to sort your alignment and the only thing either of us got last night was a bunch of non alignment indicative bullshit that got us nowhere.
Pardon my french but I did try to answering your guys questions as best I could
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas The Shining disformation Fecalfeast
NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list.
I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever.
I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case.
But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot.
Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads?
Was waiting for someone to ask that.
Was hoping that no one asked that
I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so)
I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all.
Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.
And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred.
I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar.
That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred.
But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too.
The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read.
You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town?
Yes! Yes yes yes.
On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote: Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. [...] The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred.
This is contradictory. Furthermore, this is false:
On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote: I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. [...] Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.
Damdred said:
On December 04 2015 06:04 Damdred wrote: Its pretty obvious no matter what I say that your conclusion I'm mafia gor bad reasons are going to stick.
And you really haven't moosey hasn't done anything this game and is 100% a coin flip, nm will be more readable. But your case is founded on bad meta basically.
On December 04 2015 06:04 Damdred wrote: I'm not saying that slot can't be scum but I don't think its as lock as you portray it.
So on the contrary, scum!NM has no reason to no shoot Damdred. He has no reason to particulary shoot him too; but "f NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here." is false.
On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
actually: can you explain that to me? i dont understand it?
On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote: I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.
No. I thought this at first but I have a reasonable argument against this. I realise it is pre flip association but this becomes more critical once Dani flips.
I think you're both wrong. fidei, there is nothing to explain really; rsoultin and HTS both said that LS has a super hard time lying. Knowing this, it's super unlikely the "mod confirm" thing is WIFOM.