Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 61

On December 04 2015 08:12 NocturneMage wrote:
##vote Half the Sky

I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it.

On December 04 2015 23:08 Rels wrote:

Well, that simplifies the day. One of NM and HTS is mafia; maybe both (but unlikely). Cool stuff (=

On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.

On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:
Was waiting for someone to ask that.

Was hoping that no one asked that

I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so)

I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all.

Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.

And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred.

I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar.

That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred.

But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.

On December 04 2015 23:21 Rels wrote:

The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.

On December 04 2015 23:21 Rels wrote:

The deadline thing is great. LS is almost confirmed town.