EPTOn December 04 2015 22:06 Palmar wrote:
100% town palmar based on damdred dead. You can't argue with science bitch.
100% town palmar based on damdred dead. You can't argue with science bitch.
Almost as convincing as BH's rng theory.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 60
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Almost as convincing as BH's rng theory. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
On December 04 2015 22:05 Fidei86 wrote: Ugh. Meta reading Rels as town for effort is 100% a guaranteed, tried and tested terrible way to read him. His last couple of scum games he has outposted EVERYBODY. I am only vaguely aware of rels' playstyle. In general, the cases, including the one against me, he built during the night felt unforced and genuine. I have no idea how good he is at not just posting, but actually posting decently, as mafia, but I'm going to roll with it for now. We can always lynch him later. Do you think he should be a prime candidate to be lynched today? because if you don't, then why do you have a problem with me giving him a tentative pass? | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
So clearly best player. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 04 2015 22:07 Palmar wrote: I am only vaguely aware of rels' playstyle. In general, the cases, including the one against me, he built during the night felt unforced and genuine. I have no idea how good he is at not just posting, but actually posting decently, as mafia, but I'm going to roll with it for now. We can always lynch him later. Do you think he should be a prime candidate to be lynched today? because if you don't, then why do you have a problem with me giving him a tentative pass? No he is not a prime candidate to get lynched. I'm sorry, I shouldn't have put it so combatively. If you haven't played with Rels then you wouldn't necessarily know this. But I think it's important context for you in reading his posts. He massively try-hards as scum. He has the longest filter of anyone in SOTW 2. Hell, Rayn trusted him with the entire game. In resistance he never gave up even after town leader Dani had him absolutely on toast. I don't know how I might go about catching scum Rels. But an activity-meter is absolutely not a way. Your second point about his posting seeming unforced is probably a much better way of thinking about it. If he makes it much further I will go and re-read our Personalities game, where he carried town for three days after all the other town leaders died. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
A thing I notice when reading HtS is that she has no aggression and no "agenda". I honestly can't remember if I should think she's mafia for this, but I'll try to explain a bit better. She spends a lot of time and effort "talking about things". She weighs in here, and gives an opinion there, but there is very little "this guy is totally mafia, let's murder him". She's more of a passive observer and commentator than an active participant and instigator. Thing is though, I'm not entirely sure that makes her mafia, I think I recall her being a bit timid in general, but meh. I am going to find the case against her and see what those guys who voted her said. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
a) do you believe my perception of her filter is correct b) do you think it's relevant | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 04 2015 10:18 The Shining wrote: Actually your thinking about joining the LS wagon is why I was hesitant and asking so many questions beforehand. I was weighing my suspicions on you vs the case and points on him. As for having a lot of the same reads, if I'm being honest, I'm never too confident in them before first scumflip, as my association cases and late game play is where I excel at. D1/D2, I'm used to being wrong and sometimes scum siding on reads without realizing it. So even with our reads being similar, you're in my suspicious pile until I read your filter and can figure out how you arrived to those reads. As for the Trfel read, he's got 8 pages at the start of D2 and 8 pages total his last scum game. Like I've pointed a few issues I had with some of his reads and posts but he hasn't backed down from me and his willingness to explain and then put in work on his reads, like the stuff on HTS, is giving me trouble on where the scum motivation could come from. He's been under a lot of pressure this game and even though there are some similarities from his last scumgame, one thing that recently stands out to me is the amount of sensible content he's putting out, even under pressure. I don't agree with everything, and had issues with his dropping his NM scumread pretty easily, but its more about the way he's done it and explained it. I could see it coming from town trying to evaluate what's in the thread and I thinking he could be wrong, after being wrong on Damdred. And following onto kush was a risky play that I took because I didn't like his switch. But you being the instigator before me is one of the main reasons I'm still suspicious. Like I do take some responsibility for it but it also surprised me how many more people were willing to follow once I switched, instead of when you did. Like if you're scum, its possible your team waits for a town to switch(like me) and then pin the responsibility on me(like HtS did). *facepalm* TS is your reason for rejecting my argument really because you don't trust your reads because it is early? What makes you think town-Fidei would have necessarily any better or keener insights than you? We're all working off imperfect information here, but the fact that we are responding to everything exactly the same way makes me give you serious town cred. Also, doing yourself down to de-value your reads is a Mafia trait. If you don't have confidence in yourself nobody will follow you. Also, re the lynch, I have openly admitted that I was one of the first to move, and was probably one of the key reasons it happened. Unless I'm scum with LS then I don't see why scum-me would bother. But more than that, isn't it incredibly unlikely that within 3 minutes I'd come up with a plan that relied upon townies following me, in order to achieve something? Like, I don't think that responsibility for a late moving lynch is AI by itself. If LS flips red then I admit I look worse (but otoh I think he probably is Mafia, I just got carried away in the moment, and was wrong). | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 04 2015 22:20 Palmar wrote: I would like your input on a) do you believe my perception of her filter is correct b) do you think it's relevant Hmmmmm. I think your perception is entirely correct. I have played with Dani twice now I think, and GM'd her once. By way of background, she cares a lot about this game and always plays hard and to win. She has played through some tough personal times. When we were town together in Newbie Mafia XII (I think) she found scum EOD1 and then carried town the rest of the way. She said something when she was casing scum reads, "maybe the noose will tell us the truth" or similar. I don't remember much of her Personalities game because she was N1'd, but I remember making a long post saying why I thought she was town. I should probably go and look it up. But what I would say about those games is that she had tonnes of energy. She was scum-hunting relentlessly. Even in Resistance, where I knew her alignment, she fought through a Rayn tunnel and nearly solved at the end. Here, it's not clear she is actually trying to solve at all. I do think there is a reasonable chance that she's playing sub-optimally because she is unwell. But she has actually had decent bouts of activity, and has a decent length filter. So I'm not sure how much water that excuse holds. Also, and this is a point I want to emphasise, THERE IS NO WAY TOWN ALEX COMES INTO THIS GAME AND HARD SCUM READS DANI UNLESS HE IS 1,000% CONVINCED SHE IS MAFIA. I would bet next month's salary on his read either being correct, or alternatively him being Mafia and trying to get Dani killed (either as a bus or because she could out him). | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
There is something off about Alex's play as well. But I am much less experienced with him than I am with Dani. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
HtS is bland and boring Nocturn is aggressive and sexy ergo: we kill hts over him. I don't think it's even a question. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22634 Posts
You said it best yourself, now we kill hts. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
Now I'm catching up the 10 pages I didn't read. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:12 NocturneMage wrote: ##vote Half the Sky I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it. Well, that simplifies the day. One of NM and HTS is mafia; maybe both (but unlikely). Cool stuff (= | ||
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