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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: Could you explain these reads more? Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for? Yeah i do. But you have to wait until i get home since i am out with friends and i hate posting on phone.[/QUOTE] Now a good time? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 04 2015 23:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also i will get back to your post kitaman, it will take some time though. I read the thread on my phone last night but i i don't remember much of it.  Woke up just a while ago so i need to eat something first. ninja'd. heh k | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 04 2015 23:42 Rels wrote: That is awesome! Thanks for that, that will be useful later. You're probably town for this effort too. Even though the last game he is referring to with this chart was how he tricked people to trust him as mafia? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Heh I'm aware of that. I was waiting to see if anyone was going to hop on it to draw conclusions -_- | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 00:03 Superbia wrote: Kita read your own filter with me please. You make two posts on me basically pushing scum on me and then conclude I'm leaning town in your list post. How the fuck does this happen? I believe it was weak town, not leaning town. I wouldn't want you on an team at the moment. A lot of the stuff that I have posted on you was attacking Xat's town read on you based on his instance that you were engaged with the game. Mostly I think you're inactive. I didn't like the over explanation stuff. I think that the actual exchange with xat wasn't too bad. A xat + sup duo seems a bit unlikely, but perhaps that's a poor way to look at things. I really won't have a strong idea one way or the other until you have time to play considering you haven't talked about nominations at all this game and we are on day three. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 00:52 Superbia wrote: Nvm about being scared on rayn. This fucking line just solidifies him as town: I don't even care that I'm in this list, this echoes my thoughts so much (mostly the second list- I would replace myself with sicklucker). Touching on HTS, SL and myself a bit more would be nice to hear about next when you have a chance. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:29 Xatalos wrote: Overall, would be nice to hear more opinions on the current proposal. From you, from Superbia, and others. I'm leaning towards reject at the moment. I wouldn't feel comfortable passing a team with you still. I think there are better alternatives than sicklucker, though I'm still kinda null on him so he wouldn't totally kill a team. rayn has also owed me a response for a while, so I'm waiting on that. Preferably I'd be looking at something like Kita/artanis/rayn, though I'm obviously aware that you wouldn't do something like that. Maybe one of HTS/Rels in place of myself if need be (?). | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:26 Superbia wrote: Perhaps you are right in this argument. In any case we should probably not pursue it any further now as it will not help me evaluate Rels in any sort of way. Kita is still up in the air at this point, he's not in my town circle. (My PoE scum list is: Rels, Shockey, Kita, Sicklucker, HtS/maybe you) I'm mostly going off the votes here: - There's a general feel that it is obvious most people will vote no- so scum (as having no QT) are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.). - Mafia are very likely to vote yes on a mission with a mafia. Unless the consensus is against it. Consensus takes heavy priority over everything for mafia. - Mafia are somewhat likely to vote no on a mission with only town. They can vote yes to look good, especially early on. This can very easily go against consensus ("see, I told you the mission would pass!"). - Mafia are very likely to vote no on a mission with only town, if the situation is dire. - Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either. So: If the team consisted of town, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, shockey, sicklucker. If the team had a mafia, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, Kita, Shockey/SL. OR Rels, HtS (who would attempt to frame Kita), shockey/SL. I think this makes sense for the most part. There isn't anything that I strictly disagree with in theory. The biggest problem I have is that PoE reads are useful for figuring things out yourself, but kinda less relevant to everyone else because they can't make the assumption that you are town, which is pretty important for this to work. Aside from the PoE analysis, what type of things make you suspicious of Shockey or HTS from their posting history? Does it really matter who HTS frames between you, Xat, and myself? I suppose a spy HTS would be hesitant to nominate a town superbia who hasn't posted for a while, but what's the different from a town xat and a town kita to her? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:46 Rels wrote: I don't understand how you can say "scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.)." and put Shockey in your POE list. You then say "Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either.", which doesn't explain it. Expand please ? [/QUOTE] From what I gathered, he means that ""scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus" to only apply when the team has at least one mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
From what I gathered, he means that ""scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus" to only apply when the team has at least one mafia.[/QUOTE] Hence ignoring general consensus for "town cred" if the nominated team is clean and you know it's going to fail. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:53 Rels wrote: Wait a minute. So your scum team is Superbia / Shockey / SL, since you're townreading everybody else. Can you tell me why would HTS would follow the town sentiment to the point of considering putting herself out of her own team, in the first draft of the first mission ? Especially since, like she said, she didn't have much time to properly think. Xat is missing. I also questioned why she would suggest excluding herself for the sake of passing the group when it initially happened. I don't have a great explanation other than she was willing to toy with the idea of making a sub-optimal play, which sometimes happens as town. I don't think it was very likely that she would have removed herself, though I could be wrong. Right now the good outweighs the bad for me. Something like 70/30. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 02:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: The difference is i am not calling Xatalos scum and i am calling you scum. Not sure how that applies to the spy HTS scenario being referenced. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes, again, technically you are absolutely correct here. I created a narrative and called you scum for it. Well to be exact i explained to HtS why your play doesn't make you town, but yes, i found out your play to be more likely to come from scum. But in my opinion i have good reasons to think the narrative i was entertaining is the right one. Mmk I don't have much to disprove that the narrative doesn't work because I indeed did find Xatalos and Super suspicious around the time the nomination phase was finalized. Maybe playing a game with 70% Europeans makes it seem as if I'm late to the party on certain things, but on day one I think a lot of that stuff just happened to come out when I had time to look at stuff, rather than a lack of "pro-activeness" or whatever. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: sicklucker and Artanis - i disagree on the null read. I have explained why. Artanis I am feeling more comfortable with so I'd put him into leaning town for what it is worth. I would think about including him in town nominations at the moment. I'd say the "not playing towards anything" explanation that you initially applied to Artanis doesn't apply anymore. Do you think the read holds true? I'm less confident about the explanation towards SL at this point. Are there specific examples of the what you are saying about him that are consistent enough be confident here? On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I kinda understand the read on HtS. What gives me pause on HtS is the fact that he last-second swapped Xatalos to you. Now i don't think you are both mafia with HtS. The problem is why does he swap? On November 02 2015 21:10 Half the Sky wrote: Will almost certainly be leaving Kita off. On November 02 2015 23:44 Half the Sky wrote: and right now I'm not seeing a town Kita. On November 03 2015 00:14 Half the Sky wrote: Kita was more scummy than Rels On November 03 2015 01:26 Half the Sky wrote: there's no way I'm ever putting Kita on at this moment On November 03 2015 01:50 Half the Sky wrote: Going to be blunt, that's not happening, Kita is definitely not happening right now The thing here is that she shares this opinion like seven or eight times and then suddenly swaps at the deadline. I was rather surprised at the time too. I agree the explanation for the swap wasn't very clear. However it somewhat suggest that she is more concerned with selecting the right team rather than worrying about the backlash that might come considering the earlier statements. From a spy HTS position, I think her priority would be to get a team that passes. The suggestion that it would be easier to blame a failed mission on myself than xatalos seems less important than finding a team that passes so you can ensure that there isn't a mission 1-2-3 combo. In my opinion, HTS-Xat-rayn seemed more likely to pass at the time. I guess it would be easier for her to buddy me if she felt that I was going to come out looking pretty townie later on in the game, that she might as well swap earlier on. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am really conflicted with your reads on Rels and Xatalos. The first thing that raises my eyebrows is the fact that you read other people based on motivation, but there is zero analysis of motivation regarding Xatalos. The read on Xatalos is actually based on something you think is scummy in what he has said. The fact is, if you read Rels' posts in this light, there is literally way way way more things that are just plain out fucking scummy. I disagree. There was a bit of stuff that I considered on Xat's motivation. Out of the nine players in the game, I felt he was the most aggressive in ensuring his inclusion for the day one nomination. There were instances where he tried to push himself over super. I felt that his lack of any real mafia reads made it seem like he was trying to avoid conflict for the most part. I felt that the later follow up explanation on super/myself wasn't genuine. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why does he give out a townread on him based on "shit reasons" when he has scumread Superbia before? It doesn't make any sense, especially if the reasoning is -- as you claim -- made up, and he doesn't genuinely think so. I also think the read on you at the time was not scummy at all, because i felt the exact same way about you back then. I'm saying that his read was formulated and that he stuck with it. That is a bit different from something that is "made up". His initial read that superbia was engaged and that I was ignoring things may have been true at the start, but it was no longer true and didn't apply at the point where he was making that argument. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you think his read (reasoning/changes on it) on me throughout the game is not scummy? I find that sudden shifts in opinion typically come from town. There are exceptions, but "player x is definitely y" and then quickly seeing something else that changes their mind is kinda townie, where mafia tend to dwell on stuff. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you think his townread on ShoCkeyy was not scummy? It was literally based on the worst, and the most scummy post in this thread. I shared similar sentiment that ShoCkeyy was playing so odd that it seemed as if he was suicide himself from inclusion at any point. This still is true for the most part, though the other stuff outweighs this at the moment. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:[/B - Why is it impossible that he changes his read on HtS when he does (or rather -- more likely to come from town)? If HtS is town (as you assume) and i am town (as you assume) and i think you assume you are town anyways --> HtS has put on a team that is all town, what choise does he have? He has to call someone scum. I don't find his reasoning to be even good. I'm not quite clear what you are asking here. Maybe you could rephrase it if possible. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: - Why do you read Rels town for his "level of engagement". This is something that I tend to stick to during the first cycles of the game. If you are putting effort in then I'm more willing to trust you than someone who isn't. Enabling players to afk early on rarely works out. As time goes on later into the game, content becomes more important than activity. I'm also watching for things like when the activity occurs and whether or not certain players are more motivated at times that benefit themselves or times that benefit town overall. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't like this post, and the fact that you are not looking behind the words at all. Let's break this into pieces: My reasoning for doing this is the following: 1) town - i believe that you three are scum (in which case it makes this the best play if all of you three agree - it just does, as the town auto-wins after regardless of what team we choose next )2) town - i believe there is a chance that you all three are scum, and i know you will never agree to this as either alignment 3) mafia - idk... you can insert your reasoning here because you seem to think there could be a reason, i can't give one, since i am not mafia and i would never do that when i am ALREADY on the team and (heavily) townread by 7 other players.... I explained why one was not valid earlier on I believe. The better strategy is to exclude those three players from nominations and increase your chances of success by giving you room for error. Two doesn't lead us anywhere. I guess you could argue that you wanted to see how certain players would react, but the reaction that I would expect from both sides would be "lol this is bad" so it's more of a free setup opinion for a spy to give, rather than anything of importance. As for three, I hardly gave a scum read. Mostly a "why is a town rayn pushing a plan so terrible. Is he bold enough to think he could get away with this as a spy" read? I think it would have been a lot easier to simply ask me for opinions on Shockyy and Rels, rather than some random plan to bait it out of me, but meh. On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Your read on Xatalos (and his (and my) read on you) is the biggest issue here, since other people can't agree to anything. The fact is that there is basically no other team than me/you/Xatalos that will EVER go to the first mission based on people's reads and how they differ from other people's reads. I don't think this is true. I'm pretty sure 5/9 town will be willing to compromise at some point or the other to get a nomination to go through. It's tough, but that's how games like this go. I think there would be very few players who reject a mission 3/4 if it meant going to 5. [B]On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like... you have to admit there is a chance you are wrong on Xatalos. I don't find your case good. I admit i COULD be wrong on Xatalos, i am just really fucking sure of my read, more sure than anything else in this game. I also admit i am not sure if you are mafia or town, because historically i am not that good in reading you and i kinda end up thinking you are scum in any game we are in. Sure there is. I don't think I have any reads that stretch outside the 70% confidence level at this point. Right now I find the things that Xatalos has done to point more likely to spy than not, but nothing is set in stone and it's definitely possible for things to change. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: She thinks both you and kita are town but she picks the person that is least likely to get yay-voted in the team. It makes very little sense. What would be the mafia motivation to suggest a team with a less optimal chance of success here? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 03:34 Xatalos wrote: What do you mean that I didn't have any real reads and that my explanation wasn't "genuine"? At the time, I think you just said "I guess we have different views on the word 'engaged' then" or something.... Scum reads, not reads in general. They were all town reads at the time. As for the engaged stuff I think I explained how he hadn't interacted with hardly anyone at all at that point, unless you are asking something different? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 03:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: If HtS is mafia it comes down to this: Yeah I guess it's another one of those "if player x is spy, this explains things" rather than "this happened, therefore player x is probably spy". | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 03:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't have much to say to your big post kita. I just disagree. I suggest you go read Rels' scumgames to see what he is capable of: Season of the Witch II[/ur] Battle of Drams Basically the cases he makes look "good" but they are boring. lol, i can't explain that better. Like here Superbia and to some extent HtS are like furious and spit flames everywhere (like BM in SotW game) when getting into argument with Rels. Rels is just.. boring, and the reasoning is boring. And he makes conclusions that don't make any sense, at all. Okay I'll take a look. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 05:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: No it isnt. It is another instance where i elaborate to "this action has no scum motive" with "here is the scum motive". i dont like when i am asked about something - or been given non-logical arguments - and answer them, people turn them around and say something irrelevant instead of agreeing/disagreeing with what i ACTUALLY say... Already disagreed here. On November 05 2015 03:23 kitaman27 wrote: From a spy HTS position, I think her priority would be to get a team that passes. The suggestion that it would be easier to blame a failed mission on myself than xatalos seems less important than finding a team that passes so you can ensure that there isn't a mission 1-2-3 combo. In my opinion, HTS-Xat-rayn seemed more likely to pass at the time. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On November 05 2015 02:11 ShoCkeyy wrote: I also don't need to place myself on my own team if I'm confident on who is town. Back to work. The problem that I have here is that you said you would pass every combination except the xat + rayn combo. rayn really seems to be the player you were most suspicious of on day one, yet you sent it through. Also, don't get discouraged by everyone scum reading you if you are indeed town. People are going to reject pretty much anything you say if the hive mind is against you. Just keep trucking and maybe it will help sometime down the road | ||
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