EPT[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 8
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Chromatically
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On October 27 2015 06:01 Blazinghand wrote: Ok, I totally get what you're getting at here. there's an argument to be made, and it is a totally reasonable one, that perhaps all lurkers are town and all active players are mafia, and we should lynch into the most suspicious active players. And in a sense, I think that is not 100% wrong. For example; I think rayn needed an extension and some time to sort out his rage and unwillingness to play. But there are what, 4 lurkers here out of 11 players? It's almost certain that there's at least one mafia in the lurk group, and there are ones like Hopeless1 and Yamato who are literally playing just enough to not ge tmodkilled (remember, this game has no activity requirement). If I were scum this game, I'd just never post and it would be easy. In fact, I feel really certain at least one scum, or maybe all scum, are doing this. And why not? There's a vocal contingent of people (including the lurkers themselves) who do not want to lynch into lurkers We have to think smarter. Normally, lurkers are handled by modkills for failure to meet posting requirements, or cops, or vigilantes, or at the very least some blues make it to LYLO and claim and we have a narrow lynch pool. We have none of those tools this game. People are abusing the ability to lurk, and sure, ti sounds like they have reasons, but there's no reason scum can't just fake reasons. As scum, I would. We need to solve this problem ourselves. We obviously can't lynch every lurker, since doing so is the same as guessing all scum are lurkers (if 2-3 of them are town, we'll run out of lynches and lose probably first). But we can lynch the worst lurker or two, the ones we'll never get a read on, and I'm gambling on one of them being scum. Obviously none of these guys are gonna shot if they're town. What will you do in LYLO when it's all lurkers and scum, or all lurking scum we're refusing ot lynch? We can't have that. Gb will always LOOK worse than Yam because there's a filter to look at. He could have eaisly chosen to never post and he'd be just like Yam, protected by "well, we can't just lynch lurkers, or we'd lose". GB CHOSE TO PLAY. He chose to play the damn game, to try to solve things, even if he's super wrong and dumb, and MAKING THAT CHOICE, that's a town thing. If he's scum, he didn't have to post SHIT. He just had to let the thread implode. He stepped up! HE STEPPED UP. Don't punish that. Yeah, fair points. I disagree that GB chose to play, I think that if he did nothing at all today like yamato did, he would be the lynch instead of yamato due to how hard he was being pushed. Ideally, we lynch the obvious/active mafia first and then can use those flips to help us with the lurkers, but that doesn't always work out nicely. So I do agree that at some point we have to bite the bullet and lynch one, and yamato is a good choice because of his meta. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Well I don't think it matters too much since we'd be getting two lynches anyway (same as if we just waited the another day)... But I guess there's the fact that the longer the game goes, the more information we get, and there's always a risk of yamato ninjaing Yeah, but we should lynch separately in that case so we can use the information from yamato's flip to help us with the other lynches. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: I think that logically it's better to make sure we only kill one person today though, because we don't want to rush our lynches and not have the full amount of time/information. So no shennanies I guess. I think my logic here is right? Killing two people today is always worse for town because it's just using one of our later lynches a day early. | ||
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So can we just lynch GB tomorrow please? | ||
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On October 26 2015 09:24 gumshoe wrote: ... So please please please vote Yamato, if he flips green I will sheep whatever lynch you want for the rest of the game. Just houmer me today, will yah? Good news though! Although it sounds like this was just a condition of voting yamato so maybe not...  | ||
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On October 27 2015 08:55 ritoky wrote: that's pretty much my town read on him + he had some similar thoughts to me on day 1. but the constant rage over non-issues and then that post you made about him being all aboard you and suddenly open to a wealth of options without talking about it much plus him not doing shennanies has cast some doubt on him for me. Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong. I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like: ritoky gumshoe Xatalos BH (almost certainly town) rayn Vivax (very likely town) Hopeless Onegu GB (mafia) The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town. Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back. The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town. By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time. So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far). | ||
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On October 27 2015 08:31 ritoky wrote: assuming you're town. i think independently GB is the most mafia and hopeless hasn't given me any reason to believe he is town. assuming i am right on GB i think 1 of gumdrop, vivax, and xata is mafia. of those 3 i think vivax has reasoning to not shennanie cuz of what i did to him in a past game (could be using it to his adv) and gumdrop is the most town of the 3. so that leaves xata. onegu is an engima to me so i have no idea whatsoever. so independent i would say something like GB, hopeless, onegu. if gb is mafia then sub out onegu or hopeless for xata or maybe vivax. Why sub out Onegu/Hopeless if GB is mafia? Do you see an association there? | ||
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