[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 133

On October 28 2015 05:57 Vivax wrote:
When I actually read BH's posts I gotta laugh sometimes

but for most people slam is just a pain to play with as a player and as a human being

On October 28 2015 05:51 Blazinghand wrote:


In terms of "maximum chance to get a scummer tomorrow" Onegu is up there

I recall people saying "one of yam+gb must be scum"-- I'll go looking for the reasoning why-- do you remember why people were on about this?

On October 28 2015 05:11 Chromatically wrote:
Yeah keeping his vote on you was an absolutely stupid thing to do as either alignment. It made zero sense. So why is doing that as mafia less likely than doing it as town?

Unless he's in a team with GB (unlikely), there would be no harm in putting his vote on GB instead of you. He certainly had justified a switch enough at that point. Keeping GB as a mislynch for later..? Why not keep yamato as the mislynch? It's a totally nonsensical move as either alignment --> non-alignment indicative. (Maybe even more likely town because it puts attention on him, but that can be WIFOM too).

I think the thing about saying "good night" is a non-point. I've said I'm leaving before and come back to the thread after that, really not more likely as mafia than town.

On October 28 2015 06:06 Vivax wrote:
BH rayn never was an actual scumread of yours right?

On October 28 2015 06:01 gumshoe wrote:


It was my argument. They can both be town, but they cannot both be scum (because Yamato basically went after Gb with MAXIMUM kill aggresion, ie directing marv BACK onto Gb.)

It has no bearing now / : they could both be town. The application of it was that if Yam is scum, gb is town, and vice versa. Therefore you should lynch the one your most certain is scum to protect the townie between them, which if one is scum, then the other is town and needs protecting.

Doesnt do much atm T_T

On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote:
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:


Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).


I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.

On October 28 2015 02:52 Onegu wrote:



I didnt waste my vote. People said they were down to shennanie on to him. BH and ritoky. If some more people wanted to go I wanted them to be able and lynch scum.

I am really kinda feeling Xata is scum with hopeless now. Like he was all ok yeah we can lynch him, then no we have to be safe. He really waffled on it and felt really weird to me.

And yes me and hopeless are both scum, that makes perfect sense...

On October 27 2015 00:26 Onegu wrote:
Ill be back in a bit.

On October 27 2015 05:38 Onegu wrote:
I am here

On October 27 2015 05:54 Onegu wrote:
Bleh to many pages to read if it is just all going to be rayn being crazy...

On October 27 2015 05:56 Onegu wrote:
Getting some medicine I dont feel well. We should lynch hopeless. BH go back. Other people join.

On October 27 2015 05:58 Onegu wrote:
Bleh

On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote:
I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu.

Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere:


Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him.

He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town).


I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense.

Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point.

On October 28 2015 03:31 Chromatically wrote:
Why are you telling GB how to play??? Telling someone "if you're town, then do this" is the complete opposite of helpful because they can just do it and then you have zero idea of their alignment. You have to look at how he plays on his own without saying "hey you should do this".

That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do.

On October 28 2015 06:15 Blazinghand wrote:


I currently have a townread on rayn, based on his interaction with the hosts. He's also been gradually improving since the end of D1. I see no reason to lynch him during D3, and would be hardpressed to imagine an argument that would convince me. Admittedly, his super lackluster performance N1 and D2 are, well, super lackluster: but I know rayn and I know his rage. I'm pretty sure his anger was genuine, given that he directed it at the host and the fact that it was dripping with biting sarcasm. I can go more in-depth on this if you'd like to discuss rayn.

Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu
Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos

yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax,
GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear
Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu

Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu
Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos

yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax,
GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand
raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear
Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu

On October 28 2015 06:21 Vivax wrote:


Cmon man you type up 6 lines and in none of them is an answer to what I wanted to know. Can you please tell me if you ever scumread rayn in this game?

On October 28 2015 06:31 Blazinghand wrote:
Here's highlighted final vote counts from each day



Going with a GB/1Gu/H1 scumteam (the "naive" scumteam, the three most scummy players in the game), things would have looked like:
+ Show Spoiler [sepculation] +


What immediately stands out to me about this theory is that it would mean 2 of 3 votes on rayn were by scum. Perhaps hoping to come out of it smelling like roses (and GB does stay on rayn the next day) after the slam flip. During Day 2, GB and 1Gu are on off-wagons, but both actually have completely the ability to kill yamato over GB. As it stands, they don’t look implicated by the Yamato flip. There’s nothing inherently broken about this possibility. Not saying this makes this scum; but we can’t rule them out based on association alone. The scumteam could work.


I think in general, looking at the first VCA highlighting:


The thing we notice most is how unlikely it is scum was forced to have a hand in the slam wagon. Even if 3 of the 5 votes on slam are scum, they could ave dispersed elsewhere and still avoided a no-lynch during D1.

During D2, you had several close wagons and almost certainly then, by definition, some kind of scum meddling in the wagon outcome. Chosing to disperse rather than consolidate IT hink explains the Onegu vote quite nicely. If GB is really town, scum wouldn’t care at all— they’d all be voting like Onegu (though GB’s vote makes no sense regardless of his alignment) and raynpelikoneet. Actually, rayn’s vote raises my suspicion of him here, just because looking at how close things got, I Can’t help but think rayn on GB (given that he was hard TRing yaamto) could have made the difference!

So, in summary GB’s vote on rayn doesn’t mean anything. I think Rayn and Onegu both deserve more scrutiny (Though Onegu is the only guy I’m scumreading out of the two of them) for what went down at the end of D2. Lastly, VCA does not RULE OUT a GB/H1/1G team— though of course I will not rule in teams as groups. You don’t draw associative tells between unflipped players.