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On August 21 2015 07:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 07:33 geript wrote:On August 21 2015 07:30 The Shining wrote:On August 21 2015 07:23 geript wrote: There were 5 votes for Chez. 0 for VA. 0 for Yamato. 0 for Kelsier. Like wtf people. Listen to your betters. On the upside, Yamato, judgeJudy, fido and tube sock are now confirmed town. Anyone who tries to lynch them gets lynched period. If they're mafia, it's your fault. Seriously fucking listen to me I'm the best player alive. Then lynch me. I don't understand how Tube is confirmed town. Take a look at the vote count. oh hey please tell me how does the town lynch make anyone anything? There were 4 good lynches yesterday and 5 people who voted for any of those four. At very most, there's on mafia in those 4. That means it's better to look at the main wagon and the straggler votes.
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On August 21 2015 07:36 Fidei86 wrote: Yeah ... I mean, I'm not sure how much the "Chezinu bloc" means if/until Chezinu flips. Obviously if he does ever flip mafia, then we'll have to go back and look carefully at who voted when and what the vote count was at that point. The CheZinU block says nothing about Chez's alignment. It's the fact that 5 people ended the day with a good vote. 7 ended the day on someone who was very likely to flip town and had been explained as such by multiple people multiple times.
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On August 21 2015 07:38 Damdred wrote: Idk why geript thinks I'm scum suddenly when he was pre try convinced I was third party which I am.
Sadly he will probably shoot,me,and,I'll lose If you were 3rd party, you'd be happier to lynch chez and less likely to lynch ruXxar.
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On August 21 2015 07:45 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 07:41 geript wrote:On August 21 2015 07:36 Fidei86 wrote: Yeah ... I mean, I'm not sure how much the "Chezinu bloc" means if/until Chezinu flips. Obviously if he does ever flip mafia, then we'll have to go back and look carefully at who voted when and what the vote count was at that point. The CheZinU block says nothing about Chez's alignment. It's the fact that 5 people ended the day with a good vote. 7 ended the day on someone who was very likely to flip town and had been explained as such by multiple people multiple times. Like... What you're explaining here is the game of mafia. Like I know you're you but it still baffles me sometimes that anyone thinks that an entire game would ever just simply do what one person says without questioning anything and be so arrogant as to assume they are absolutely and infallibly correct even after time and time again this has been false. My D1 reads are very good especially my D1 town reads. Yes, ruXxar wasnt a town read. But there were lots of reasons to think he's not mafia. For example the blue claim. He didn't claim a role. Any role. That just gives people the feel bads about him. But it'd be odd if he were on a team to not end up claiming something.
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Shots should be at Kelsier or chez I think. I'm going to bed early I think so I can watch Koo vs CJ
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On August 21 2015 18:05 Rels wrote: @geript why Breshke isn't in your lurker list when Chez is ? Because I'm pretty sure he's town.
Yamato is maybe town for consolidating on a good lynch. In the least a better lynch. Like you guys can complain about those 4 being off limits, but it'd be exceptionally odd if there were more than 1 mafia on CheZinU. Statistically they're low probability lynches ever worse than RNG and significantly worse than RNG excluding the 5 on chez.
I'm serious about Damdred being mafia. If he were 3P he'd be far more interested in staying on Chez. Not because chez is 100% mafia, but because as a 3P (survivor or not) he'd be more interested in me avoiding looking at him seriously. I do think chez has a higher than normal chance to flip scum though. His play reminds me a bunch of his play in Nuclear where he was mafia with Ace and Dandelion +2. Around enough to say stuff but not really do anything specific. Plus, his approach towards being lynched was nothing like in TSM. He says similar sounding things, but when you look at TSM he had a long series of posts which showed he was sort of lost. He's just waiting to be lynched and trying to delay it. That's the difference. Town chez tries to do stuff and a lynch ends up his way because of how he plays. As mafia, he just tries to wait out the lynch and does nothing.
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Otherwise, I'd need a full reread.
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On August 21 2015 23:14 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 22:58 geript wrote:On August 21 2015 18:05 Rels wrote: @geript why Breshke isn't in your lurker list when Chez is ? Because I'm pretty sure he's town. Yamato is maybe town for consolidating on a good lynch. In the least a better lynch. Like you guys can complain about those 4 being off limits, but it'd be exceptionally odd if there were more than 1 mafia on CheZinU. Statistically they're low probability lynches ever worse than RNG and significantly worse than RNG excluding the 5 on chez. I'm serious about Damdred being mafia. If he were 3P he'd be far more interested in staying on Chez. Not because chez is 100% mafia, but because as a 3P (survivor or not) he'd be more interested in me avoiding looking at him seriously. I do think chez has a higher than normal chance to flip scum though. His play reminds me a bunch of his play in Nuclear where he was mafia with Ace and Dandelion +2. Around enough to say stuff but not really do anything specific. Plus, his approach towards being lynched was nothing like in TSM. He says similar sounding things, but when you look at TSM he had a long series of posts which showed he was sort of lost. He's just waiting to be lynched and trying to delay it. That's the difference. Town chez tries to do stuff and a lynch ends up his way because of how he plays. As mafia, he just tries to wait out the lynch and does nothing. Doesn't it depend which way Chez flips (if he does)? I mean, if he's town as well, it doesn't really matter which way we went, surely? If Chez is town, then there's a slight possibility of 2 mafia on him, but that would be a very odd case. It would essentially mean there's 5 mafia (which imo is way too many for a 20 person setup) or that there was only 1 mafia on ruxxar and 1 mafia on the random votes. Those two things being true would be really really odd in general.
Also, tbh I'm having a hard time believing ritoky's "I must random vote each day" shit. Like his role would have to be pretty goddamn powerful in order to lose the ability to control his own vote. While i don't have a vast opinion for onegu setups, like that shit would be super odd. I think ritoky has a decent shot for being 3p and just making shit up.
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On August 21 2015 23:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: Anyone opposed to this?
##Shoot Yamato77 Yes. Damdred and Chezinu are significantly better shots. Chezinu gives us information whether it was town-town or town-mafia wagons (3p essentially being town-town). Yamato is a lower probability shot than a number of others.
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On August 20 2015 08:20 rsoultin wrote:Day 1 VotecountruXxar (6): Breshke, Half the Sky, Rels, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien Fidei86 (2): ritoky, Tubesock, The Shiningritoky (1): geript, ChezinuDamdred (1): Fecalfeast, Fecalfeast, ruXxar, Chezinu Fecalfeast (1): Damdred yamato77 (1): Fecalfeast Tubesock (1): The Shining Not Voting (8): Fidei86, yamato77, ruXxar, JudgeJudy, VayneAuthority, Tictock, Beneather, KelsierSC Currently, ruxxar is set to be lynched with 6 votes in . Please do not forget to vote. You may vote for yourself, and a vote of "no lynch" is allowed.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/492852-the-new-personality-voting-threadPlease vote in the voting thread if you want your vote to be counted.
On August 21 2015 06:54 rsoultin wrote:Day 1 VotecountChezinu (5): geript, JudgeJudy, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien, Tubesock, Fidei86, yamato77 ruXxar (5): Breshke, Half the Sky, Rels, ObiWanShinobi, WaveofShadow, Lord Tolkien, ObiWanShinobi, Lord Tolkien, Damdred, Half the Sky Tubesock (4): The Shining, Rels, Chezinu, WaveofShadow, Lord TolkienFidei86 (2): ritoky, Tubesock, The Shining, Tictock, RelsDamdred (2): Fecalfeast, Fecalfeast, ruXxar, Chezinu, Fecalfeast, KelsierSC ObiWanShinobi (1): ruXxar Not Voting (2): VayneAuthority, Beneather Currently, Chezinu is set to be lynched with 5 votes in . Please do not forget to vote. You may vote for yourself, and a vote of "no lynch" is allowed.http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/492852-the-new-personality-voting-threadPlease vote in the voting thread if you want your vote to be counted.
On August 21 2015 07:08 rsoultin wrote: FINAL Day 1 Votecount
ruXxar (7): Breshke, ObiWanShinobi, Lord Tolkien, Damdred, Half the Sky, Chezinu, Rels Chezinu (5): geript, JudgeJudy, Tubesock, Fidei86, yamato77 Tubesock (2): The Shining, WaveofShadow Fidei86 (2): ritoky, Tictock ObiWanShinobi (1): ruXxar WaveofShadow (1): Fecalfeast Half the Sky (1): KelsierSC
Not Voting (2): VayneAuthority, Beneather
Ruxxar has been lynched with 7 votes. So a few interesting things from the voting patterns on D1. The initial Ruxxar push was comprised of: Breshke, HtS, Rels, OWS, Wave and LT. When you look at where the votes moved, however, HTS, Rels and Wave ended up moving over to Tubesock before switching back. Whereas LT moved to Chez before moving back. Unfortunately, I dont' think this says anything about LT's alignment. I kinda think Wave is town; if he's not I'm just going to policy lynch him from now on whenever I think he's town. But the series of switches makes me think there's at most 1 mafia between Rels and HTS. The voting together early on, switching together and ending together makes it highly unlikely that both are mafia. So if one of those two flips mafia, the other should be considered confirmed town period. Of those two, I think Rels is pretty obviously mafia for a few reasons. 1. On August 19 2015 18:30 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2015 18:26 ritoky wrote:While awoken by a screaming baby at 2:30 am, I felt the compulsion to refresh everyone on what they should be doing right now. There is nothing in the thread more compelling than this, anyone not voting for fidei should explain why who they are voting for has a greater than 30% chance of being mafia; and why fidei isn't mafia when clearly RNG has shown such. On August 19 2015 10:18 ritoky wrote:We should lynch FideiAfter reviewing the game, I have arrived at the same place. Fidei is the best candidate for lynch both objectively and subjectively. The Objective Case:RNG has selected fidei, he is mafia. If you need an explanation of how he was selected please reference my filter. Outside of that RNG is PARTICULARLY suited for this game. This is a closed setup, and historically in closed setups there is an incredibly strong likelihood that there are more anti-town players than are normally in an open setup. So with that alone our probability of hitting mafia from RNG has already increased by a significant margin. However, there is more. We are playing a game in which people are attempting to act like other people and mask their own play as someone else's. This means that day 1 reads and particularly day 1 meta reads have a diminished rate of accuracy. Meaning RNG is the optimal line of play. A situation with increased odds of hitting mafia and diminished validity of meta reads clearly points to RNG being the objective best line of play. The Subjective Case:Outside of RNG declaring fidei mafia, he is actually mafia. Consider his posting thus far: On August 19 2015 08:33 Fidei86 wrote: Ritoky, I can't get a read on you and usually we soul read each other. I think that basically means you're confirmed mafia, because if I can't read you then it means you're mafia, and usually we can tell each other's read a scarily uncanny amount of the time. Also, pushing scum doesn't make me mafia, it makes me town. Come on people.
[serious]This game started while I was out with friends, and am currently quite toasty. Will read tomorrow and revert.[/serious] There are 3 aspects to this post that I would like to highlight: 1) The most classic mafia play ever: "Notice me senpai -> excuse about activity". His final sentence has no point other than to say hi I am here and fade away. 2) He is drunk or at least partially. This is important because drunk people are more prone to letting slip things or not being careful with their wording. Will be revisited later. 3) His immediate entrance response into the thread is to seek out me and essentially claim a personality to me in a very half-assed manner. First and foremost there is not point to this because he knows who I am and once RNG has declared him mafia, appeals to emotion are pointless only hard logic can deter me. Secondly, it may be coincidence but singling out the only person calling him mafia and appealing to them directly reads as an over-response to pressure. And finally the half-assed imitation. This will require some explanation. I think people who are committing heavily to trying to act the part of the player they got rolled into and are sticking to it for a decent portion of time are very likely to be town. I feel that it is a risky play to play in a manner unlike yourself and in one that could potentially draw lynch attention to you for not playing "serious". Mafia are averse to both risk and lynch pressure on day 1, and thus would be less apt to fully commit to acting the part of someone else. I do not necessarily read legitimate frustration with the game type or completely ignoring who you rolled as scum though, I don't think the converse works. However, the half-ass attempts read as scum to me because it seems as if it is a mere "LOL"/attention grab for a few moments for them or a tool to further their agenda. This is the area fidei falls into in my mind. Continuing on, and credit to Tubesock on the find here: On August 19 2015 08:51 Fidei86 wrote: The person who has Chezinu should be pretty obvious, and they haven't revealed themselves yet. On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote: The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action. On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote: The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action. Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post? Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu... This goes hand in hand with point #2 from above, that fidei is drunk. He made an obvious error that speaks for itself. I can elaborate further, but I feel these consecutive quotes are very self explanatory. Not only did tubesock find it important but so did others: On August 19 2015 09:10 KelsierSC wrote:On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote: The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action. Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post? Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu... super important question On August 19 2015 09:12 ruXxar wrote:On August 19 2015 09:09 Tubesock wrote:On August 19 2015 09:00 Fidei86 wrote: The only Chezinu I have been exposed to is the Onegu version of Chezinu. No hate because I haven't seen the true Chezuinu in action. Then what was the purpose of your Chezinu is obvious and no one's outed yet post? Seems to many in the thread that Damdred is obviously Chezinu... ^ And what was fidei's response to this important question? On August 19 2015 09:18 Fidei86 wrote: Assuming at some point that that will stop and this will revert to a regular mafia game? Ignoring it and complaining. I hate to break it to you, but this is a regular mafia game already, and this is a real accusation; and you really are mafia. Fidei is objectively and subjectively the best lynch in the game, anyone not voting for him is taking a sub-optimal line of play and is bad. Back to bed. The truth is like a warm glass of milk. RNG part is stupid. You RNG formula is not public. The other part is good though. ruxxar asking tons of questions and doing nothing is scummier I think. Would be happy with the both of them. Rels has played with Ruxxar before in a student game. He was able to get a decent townread on him. Part of the reasoning for said town read was Rels was asking "good" questions and lots of them. This post by rels seems exceptionally off of how Rels has previously red ruxxar. 2. New mafia tend to ask more questions to appear active. When you look at Rel's newbie game, he was reasonably active and aggressive. What you see in this game is far more commenting on the game and being an asshole. There's not pressuring anyone. There's not flat out giving reads and posting thoughts. 3. How he's posting is drastically different. Not only is his activity significantly lower ( barely 3 pages as compared to most of 5). His posts in general are significantly shorter. He's not including a quote in almost every post he makes. How he's playing is drastically different. 4. Rayn said so. Rayn's a good player and can recognize scum quite well. Usually when he and I agree on someone, they tend to be mafia.
So if there's a vigilante, Rels should the the shot far and away.
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On August 19 2015 16:54 Rels wrote: Summary of the game: - people being stupid - RNG shit with hidden variable not being RNG - people being stupid - HTS not being stupid
agreeing with her on ruxx. ##Vote ruxxar
On August 19 2015 18:22 Rels wrote: I thought that was clear though maybe it's too complex for you. I think ruxxar is scummy. I think HTS' post about ruxxar are good.
Maybe I'll expand on ruxxar if people cannot see the obvious. Not now though, I'm working.
On August 19 2015 18:30 Rels wrote: RNG part is stupid. You RNG formula is not public.
The other part is good though. ruxxar asking tons of questions and doing nothing is scummier I think. Would be happy with the both of them.
On August 21 2015 06:17 Rels wrote: Caught up. Still think tubesock is mafia. Ruxx maybe too. Happy to lynch a lurker if that's the new thing but I prefer tube or ruxx.
On August 21 2015 06:53 Rels wrote: OK with that ruxx switch
I'd also note that this change in tone--going from Ruxxar super scummy to "mabye ruxxar too" and "ok w/ that ruxx switch" is a bit odd. He should be more than happy to lynch Ruxxar. Why does he shy away from it?
Also, fwiw, Rels talked about far more people in his newbie game and for the most part this game has stuck to "hot topic" people including fido, tube and ruxxar.
PLEASE SHOOT RELS!!!!!!!!!!
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On August 22 2015 02:40 WaveofShadow wrote:I do support you being so afraid of me you have to policy lynch me though lol I still think HtS and Rels are town though Reasoning on Rels originally was Show nested quote +On August 20 2015 20:45 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 20 2015 17:39 Rels wrote: fidei + tubesock scumteam only meaningful posts from tubesock comes from discussion with fidei tubesocks does nothing except naming some townreads and defending from fidei, goes to sleep then fidei townreads him Might be wrong but love his thinking. Town pile Tube sock comes off worse looking than fidei imo Genuine on the spot analysis looked really towny here during that argument. I don't agree that Rels should be the shot---it should be someone who is actually not playing/difficult to figure out otherwise. That's a really bad townread Wave. Like really bad. That post is super easy to make as mafia. It's correct, but there's not interesting analysis there. It's literally just a summary of an easy target.
Like, you should look at his Newbie game. It's totally different. Link here
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I'm sort of around and going back over the day to see what I missed. Can you present a better argument for why he's town? I just don't really buy your feels/tone on this.
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That reminds me... @Rayn. A bit ago when we were discussing TSM or Down Under you explained your read on OWS. Can you explain how you read OWS again?
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Also fwiw, I cover him some in the Newbie analysis here
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I also want to say that I have a 95% townread on Shining. You can look at how I've caught him before here. I'm seeing more aspects of what I've seen of and remember from his town play.
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ewbop. by him I'm talking about shining. thought i had posted that but have too many tabs open.
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On August 22 2015 02:58 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 16:41 Rels wrote: rayn what is your read on WOS. I think he's the only person townreading me late in D1 and it's super weird This one stands out a little actually. Don't see scum attempting to turn on me when our reads have been in alignment for almost the entire game. Looks like typical paranoia which he then gets over with an easy-to-follow thought process. Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 17:00 Rels wrote: OK WOS' EOD was good actually stating ruxxar was likely town 'cause mafia shows up and defend themselves at deadline pushing for tubesock hope tubesock is shot actually so we have infos Rels is town. I'm not feeling that reason. It looks more like an excuse to not say anything. Like it's really weird to me that he finds your townreading him weird, but didn't check up on it himself. It's like the same thing why layabout was scum in LX or whatever it was here Layabout won as 3P. He asked lots of people what they thought, opens one filter doesn't find anything interesting and doesn't move on. Here's it's a little different because he's got an idea but doesn't really check into that idea himself.
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anywho, i need a break.
Also, wave is right. End of phase/post flip reactions are really terrible reasons to read anyone as anything. What they do post flip can be alignement indicative but now "how they react".
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I was referring to Shining.
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