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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
Town: n00bKing, Fidei86, Half the Sky, MoosyDoosy Town lean: WonnaPlay Neutral: silentwarrior People to look into: TJHuggins, Grokken, scott31337, Tictock Medic should choose from Townie circle. silentwarrior only really becomes suspicious through associative cases which is why he's neutral. WonnaPlay looks like a solid newbie player. The four I listed are really weird and we have to look into them and they have to post some more. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 16 2015 08:48 MoosyDoosy wrote: So...how do people like active townie Moosy? I'll tell you when I see him. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 13 2015 07:53 n00bKing wrote: In addition to the 4 players who voted out the Godfather, I am also randomly townreading GhandiEAGLE for some reason or other. So that's 5 people I feel pretty good about. Man, if only Ghandi had never made another post after I said this...lol | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On July 16 2015 09:58 n00bKing wrote: Man, if only Ghandi had never made another post after I said this...lol Thoughts about my thoughts? Come on n00bKing I'm trying to be active here. Help me out a little bit buddy. | ||
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Grokken
Sweden245 Posts
On July 16 2015 08:28 MoosyDoosy wrote: Grokken post more. Looking at his filter, I think the latter part of it concerning Ghandi is decent, but the first part concerning me is quite something. Sure. I've been reading the thread, but I haven't posted much because I haven't had much to say. My only scumread day 2 was Ghandi. I've been reading filters and such, but haven't been able to find anything particularly scummy. HtS made a good case against TJH, but I felt my read towards Ghandi was stronger. With Ghandi gone, I think TJH is the most likely to be scum. I don't see any reason to think HtS' case against him is any less relevant now than it was before. I don't understand why TicTock wants a medic to protect him. He is one of the more suspicious townie (if not mafia), and it seems more likely for mafia to target someone like HtS/Fidei/n00b. TicTock has been scumreading TJH, which makes me even more surprised to see him suggest TJH as a medic target. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On July 16 2015 10:12 Grokken wrote: Sure. I've been reading the thread, but I haven't posted much because I haven't had much to say. My only scumread day 2 was Ghandi. I've been reading filters and such, but haven't been able to find anything particularly scummy. HtS made a good case against TJH, but I felt my read towards Ghandi was stronger. With Ghandi gone, I think TJH is the most likely to be scum. I don't see any reason to think HtS' case against him is any less relevant now than it was before. I don't understand why TicTock wants a medic to protect him. He is one of the more suspicious townie (if not mafia), and it seems more likely for mafia to target someone like HtS/Fidei/n00b. TicTock has been scumreading TJH, which makes me even more surprised to see him suggest TJH as a medic target. Give me more of your thoughts on Tictock then. Also please explain your thought process behind your voting and the reason why you did/did not change your mind in each of them. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 16 2015 01:44 Half the Sky wrote: I took your vote in the context of your overall play and it seemed that in addition to what you said you just didn't even consider Sulfurus though Tic (or was it noob? one of them) qualified it might not have been much to work with, then the same could be argued for NHM, sparse yet suspicious. Yeah, I think this is noteworthy. It was me that hypothesized that maybe silentwarrior didn't comment on Sulfurus because there just wasn't much in Sulf's filter to work with. But "not much in the filter to work with" didn't stop silentwarrior from voting against NHM. As silentwarrior mentioned, I hadn't moved off of NHM yet when he casts that vote. So if the tide turns against NHM and he gets lynched and flips green, SW can at least say that his responsibility for NHM's death is not as great as mine. If the scum team were to be Sulfurus/TJHuggins/silentwarrior, then SW's reason to be looking for some random place to toss his vote is fairly straightforward. TJ and Sulf had already voted against Moosy. So maybe SW would want to vote elsewhere, just to keep them from all following the same blueprint. Once the push on Sulfurus gets going, and we have a Sulf vs. Moosy race, which one can silentwarrior reasonably choose in that situation? Again, he doesn't really want to vote against Moosy, when both of his teammates are already there. But he doesn't really want to vote Sulfurus, and get the Godfather lynched on Day 1. So he sits tight and hopes the Moosy lynch will go through (all the more likely, if the Scum team was thinking that Moosy's self-vote actually counted). By the time I drop the hammer on Sulfurus, there are only 12 minutes left in the Day. And there were only 4 minutes left in the Day by the time the vote count is clarified by the Mods, making it absolutely clear that my vote on Sulfurus DID drop the hammer on him. Too late for the scum team to get Moosy back in the lead, even if silentwarrior was around (and not legitimately afk). This "association case" against TJ/silentwarrior is not spectacularly strong. But I do think SW choosing to vote against NHM is a point against him, based on what the explanation would be for him to never say anything about Sulfurus, and based on how I can reason out a motivation for him to vote there, if he's Scum. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
Interesting thoughts on silentwarrior, but as I said in my post at the top of the page, silentwarrior only becomes Mafia through associative cases (which you are decent at) so I'd say we hold off on him until later. What I really want are your thoughts on the 4 I listed. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 16 2015 07:47 Tictock wrote: If we have a Vigi they should absolutely shoot tonight. And target whom? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Scott > Grok > SW I suppose I wouldn't be too upset if I get Vigi shot, but I'd be expecting decent reasons as to why post-game. Also I can promise some better stuff next phase since I wont be catching up or traveling. | ||
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Grokken
Sweden245 Posts
On July 16 2015 10:37 MoosyDoosy wrote: Give me more of your thoughts on Tictock then. Also please explain your thought process behind your voting and the reason why you did/did not change your mind in each of them. It just seems contradictory to me that he wants to medic protect TJH after scumreading him. He seems to be an experienced player, and the post doesnt make sense to me. I guess it could be an attempt to redirect the medic from the confirmed townies so that it's easier to target them? I haven't really sensed anything scummy from him so far though. I would like to hear his explanation before I make a judgement. For day 1, my list post was rushed and I didn't put a lot of thought into my reads. I was mostly just throwing out my opinions. People pointed out your clowny posts and I changed my position. I wasn't around for end of day, so I never got a chance to change my vote. For day 2, Ghandi made this post: On July 14 2015 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote: I think Moosy is either playing a really abysmal town, or is scum. I'm still not sold enough to vote (I realize I say that a lot), but honestly constantly deflecting suspicion with sarcasm. Despite that sarcasm, he doesn't do shit for the town. Why did this happen? It made little sense to ask me, other than I was one of the few early proactive people on the thread and it would make sense to get me on his side. He had no real reason to ask me specifically here, and no real reason to believe that my opinions would hold much weight. There it is again. No reason to be prodding me except that he might suspect that I'm scum (unlikely at that point in the thread), or he's trying to deflect conversations, looking like he moves conversation forward, without actually doing so. Then he didn't vote, which I didn't either because I forgot about the separate voting thread. So this is excusable because I suck :/ Also, he constantly uses emoticons, which I distrust by nature and generally indicate self-consciousness (I'm not kidding it often points to mafia). Never trust an emoticon. The rest of his filter is absolute trash, by the way. Nothing helpful at all; all of his posts constantly criticize other people for suspecting him, while offering literally zero content to push the town forward. If he isn't scum, I'd still policy lynch him Day 3 since based_HTS gave us plenty of time. I need meaningful contribution from Moosey or I'm not likely moving off of my vote without heavy evidence on someone else. ##Vote: MoosyDoosy At this point he had yet to make any real contributions, he had only made short posts, as well as an incorrect post about TJH being an "early bird" on the Sulf train. Still he accuses you of having a trashy filter as well as not contributing. I didn't really get a chance to pressure him cause Fidei beat me to it. It quickly turned into a back and forth between Fidei and Ghandi, and I couldn't really get a word in because I was busy reading the thread and trying to comprehend what they were saying. Then he made a list post where I found a lot of very inaccurate things: On July 14 2015 08:45 GhandiEAGLE wrote: 1) Fidei. Town read; pushing me for my admittedly shitty posting when there was no real consideration of it earlier is pretty darn town. 2) WonnaPlay Lurk City, hard to know if spooked or noob, but sketchy either way. Because its a noob game all lurkers basically stay in neutral range, instead of my usual neutral-lurker range. 3) N00bking. Neutral; dont like his filter but he voted for sulfurus, so the two cancel each other out. 4) Silentwarrior. Shit-tier read list, bandwagonning, lurking. Didn't vote Moosy N1, so neutral or bad scum imo. 5) NHM/Tictoc Awful posting but apparently had an excuse so mleh. Tictoc says he's followed the game, and showed that he was present in the thread, but has yet to give anything meaningful to the game, so he's on my naughty list until something comes up. Most lurkers commit, but he's already poked his head recently. 6) Moosy Shit town, prodding him to post better hopefully he actually does, otherwise lynch for derailing conversation. No more discussion on him because its also just derailing now. C'mon man shape up. 7) TJ Huggins Bandwagonned on Moosy, pointed a lot of fingers, but generally been pretty baseless. This isn't quite a 180 of what I said earlier, because I said in my post that he wasn't scum to me. That hasn't changed; I should have clarified that I didn't think he was that innocent either, he's high up on my neutral list. Just not enough yet to vote on him. 8) Grokken. Seems pretty sketchy to me. Need to chug through filter again, but voting on me even before Fidei did just feels like someone trying to stand out and be opportunistic. He didn't start the attack, so he doesn't assume culpability if I get lynched and I'm town. He also can't hold onto an accusation. That said, he didn't fight Sulfurus being lynched; he voted Moosy but didn't protest Sulfurus' death. That doesn't mean, however, that he's not my scum read. Because he is. 9) HtS Untouchable right now. No fun there :< 10) scottblahblahnumbers The WORST kind of lurker, if he was maf, I'd be willing to bet he'd be more active, especially since he's not on the noob list; who plays mafia multiple times without wanting to actually participate? For that reasoning he's really town to me, but damn I hate how he's basically not in the game. It's frustrating. On July 14 2015 08:56 Grokken wrote: I disagree with your reads. How can you think MD is town, but still list n00bking as neutral? You mean he just casually bussed the GF? Also, what don't you like about his filter? SW didnt vote for MD, which is neutral/scum, and I voted for MD which is also scummy? Also, how can you say scott is "definitely" town after just 1 post? There was no reason for me to change my vote after this. Pretty much everyone was agreeing that Ghandi looked suspicious. | ||
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Grokken
Sweden245 Posts
On July 16 2015 12:25 Tictock wrote: Well I'm currently entertaining some WIFOM thinking. So considering that if I were Vigi I would shoot Scott > Grok > SW I suppose I wouldn't be too upset if I get Vigi shot, but I'd be expecting decent reasons as to why post-game. Also I can promise some better stuff next phase since I wont be catching up or traveling. You have been saying all game that you have a town read on me, and now I'm second on your shoot list. Why? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I had a townlean on you based off your first list post D1. Upon reading your filter I found nothing else supporting that read and there have been some decent points brought up against you. While it is ideal if the Vigi is able to find and shoot scum it is also valid for a Vigi to shoot hard to read players or people who are under suspicion. The idea is to make the game easier for town the following day by either shooting scum or shooting bad town so the rest of Town can focus on the real scum. Basically you've fallen to a null read for me. I considered MD for that list as well, but HtS reminded me that Sulf spewed him town and he's been trying a bit harder tonight. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 16 2015 07:13 Half the Sky wrote: Scott could have tried to distance himself from that vote given that a lot of people were scumreading him. He is experienced enough to know this. But it's realllllyyyy wifomy though and extremely high risk (assuming TJH is scum) given that scum are already down a player and he wouldn't stand a chance if he was the last scummer. I think Scott is actually LESS likely to be scum here from a VCA standpoint. I agree. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Spent about an hour writing a lengthy VCA. Bear with me, the wall of text is painful but.... | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Assumptions Sulfurus wagon was a pure wagon given the nature and timing of all the votes. Day 2 final vote corrected - NK on GE Day 1 Sulfurus(4): Half the Sky, Fidei86, Kelsier SC, Noobking MoosyDoosy(3): Grokken, TJHuggins, Sulfurus NydusHerMain (1): silentwarrior Fidei86(1): NydusHerMain Not Voting(4): WonnaPlay, scott31337, GhandiEAGLE. MoosyDoosy From Day 1, it's widely sorted that the Sulfurus wagon is almost certainly town unless either of Fidei or n00bKing yoloed it but there is no such evidence either way to prove that they have either in their reads or votes. On the MD wagon, it is highly unlikely that the entire scumteam hid on the MD wagon. There was reasoning for TJH to be mafia as he voted MD with Sulfurus in second without mentioning the latter and Grokken's post seemed alright (among other things that I hashed in my case). Both silentwarrior and NHM (now Ticktock) solo voted, but they are both unlikely to be scum. I am willing to bet one of them is though - SW has a distancing issue along with potential association issues with Sulfurus (aforementioned) and gave an argument for NHM that he could have for Sulfurus. NHM voted for Fidei very suspiciously before he departed the game. We know GE is confirmed, so he's green. MD is likely green as Sulfurus' vote has made him liable for lynch, prior to n00bking hammering him. More on this later. Scott is a policy lynch for D1 as he's done jack all, and WP is a null read at best largely because of the parroting, though towards the end of D1 he does appear to be slightly more towny. The no vote itself however is NAI. Grokken was pinged out early in the day for changing his read on MD to reflect thread sentiment but remarked it was a mistake. A few people are skeptical of this and another potential issue is that his postcount is low which is generally a scumtell for newbie scum struggling to make reads. His list post otherwise isn't generally terrible though and I had him at null through D1 thinking he'd also AFK voted. Day 2 <4h to EoD GhandiEAGLE(4): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior TJHuggins(4): Ticktock, Noobking, MoosyDoosy, WonnaPlay Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE Not Voting(2): scott31337, TJHuggins Grokken votes GE very early in the day before Fidei gets his vote down and scum often in this situation have to decide whether to ML or bus. We don't know TJH's alignment but if TJH is town then he's in the best position to say where he thinks the suspicious votes are. That said I'm going to fill Grokken in red, given this and the d1 post on flipping MD to red. An additional issue is that if he believed that GE was mafia he would have engaged him more as a townie and tried to sort out the alignment. He was pretty quick to put down the vote irregardless of his read on Fidei. Fidei gets his vote off early starting a second train on someone he finds suspicious, which is a sign of town. He does AFK the second half of the cycle, but for OGI reasons I know that is not alignment indicative. n00bKing who hammered Sulfurus with scant time remaining is almost certainly town. Barring further evidence I will also colour him green. I'm also going to colour MD in as green because although he's not fully out of the woods on behaviour alone, it is also highly improbable that if both he and Sulfurus were scum that Sulfurus would have said anything to expose himself. His strategy was breadcrumbed and had 6 votes on him prior to me starting the train which is more than enough for at least 1 scummer to hide. Additionally he's engaging the people that he's suspicious of through n2 so I'm going to say he's town. Tictock is a bit of an enigma with the votes. He votes TJHuggins right at the daypost or soon after it. If TJH is town, this is somewhat problematic using the scum ML/bus decision tree and the predecessor vote. So we have to look at his voteswitches and potential motivations on them - more on that later. Neutral from the start for now. SW votes GE and is the first hammer on GE. The solo vote on NHM was a problem, so we look at his read on GE. The timing is just after midway through d1, 23h left, so no issues here. The read on GE is alright though I had reservations on the top half of his long post. It would also make sense for him here to NOT vote TJH as he's townreading TJH - the read I felt at that time was wrong but did not in itself make him scummy. Additionally the effort is quite much for a newbie scum, so I am going to say a very tentative townlean. I very well could be wrong here but taking into account SW's responses on the solo voting, it could all just be newb play and not scum play. WonnaPlay brings TJH up to four votes. This can be viewed as two ways - as mafia he makes it hard for town to get a decent lynch off, but the same can be said for SW at this point in time. So we have to look at his read basis and the timing. With about 13h left he joined NK in the pressure vote with the caveat he'd switch back to GE if nothing changed. He follows up on this 2h before EoD. Given his d1 into early d2 posting though, I'm seeing a devil-may-care attitude about getting his thoughts out there which indicates town. He's not terribly concerned about how he'll look and mentioned that he'd vote for pressure despite the TJH read not being top. Also as he scumreads Scott, he switches off the wagon that Scott joined. Most likely town, not the strongest read, but that's the overall picture I'm getting. Earnest newbie town. Day 2 <40m to EoD GhandiEAGLE(5): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay TJHuggins(4): Noobking, MoosyDoosy, scott31337 Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE scott31337 (1): Tictock Not Voting(1): TJHuggins Here's where things start to get interesting. Tictock starts a wagon on Scott. The idea is a good one, but there's just one problem here - lack of followthrough. He cannot engage an AFK Scott, which is okay, but in his posting he should encourage votes on Scott further than the initial vote. He does switch his vote later on after the train fails to gain traction. It does raise the question though whether he tried to look towny after the fact but at the same time he did insist pressure voting Scott. It's a reasonable concept from a town standpoint. Now WP switches his vote from TJH to GE, thus effectively hammering GE. I explained before that he qualified his vote and that GE was at the top of his list so this vote is in line with his reads. No problem here. Day 2 Final GhandiEAGLE(7): Grokken, Fidei86, Half the Sky, silentwarrior, WonnaPlay ,Tictock, Noobking, TJHuggins(2): scott31337, MoosyDoosy Grokken(1): GhandiEAGLE Not Voting(1): TJHuggins 7-2-1 vote heavily indicates mislynch. So we can draw the conclusions that scum generally vote at the very beginning of the train or sometimes at the very end to hide their intentions. Tictock's vote here as he was late to the party (not his fault) is further compounded by his predecessor's suspcious AFK solo vote on Fidei who is almost certainly town and his scum reads aren't original on either of GE or TJH so exercising caution is the way to go in the event he's sheeping poor reads. If TJH is town, the voting further implicates Tictock. (Hence the name in italics.) The hammer vote is problematic only if it is made too close to EoD. WP's vote was made approximately 2 hours prior to then and it made sense with what he was planning to do. WP placing his vote back on TJH would not only have not made sense but keeping the vote too close would have made scum want to manipulate the vote, though here they did not need to. The following are implicated more heavily through VCA (from most to least) - Grokken, Tictock (if TJH is town), scott31337 (hammer vote on TJH prior to departure), silentwarrior (based on D1 vote). Scott could be mafia but per vote analysis he is actually less likely to be mafia. The thing that irks me is that he AFKed his vote without explanation and he's had no prior read on TJHuggins. Given the number of people willing to vote TJH, this is reckless at best as a townie and horribly scummy at worst, given the timing it's not terribly obvious. One thing is pretty clear though, given where the votes were when Scott afked, it's a decent bet that TJH and Scott aren't on the same team. WP's hammer was not made at a critical timing so if he should be for mafia, this wouldn't be it. Additionally at that time TJH could have been countervoted given the number of people willing to vote either, and the read was not incongruent with his prior stance. TJH as he failed to vote, and was hampered due to RL, his no-vote in d2 is NAI but now he's in the best position to tell us who could be suspicious - if he's town. Nightaction Recommendations Detective: 1) Grokken, 2) SW, 3) Tictock, 4) TJHiggins Caveat: I would NOT check Scott if you think there's a vig in this setup - he should be getting shot, so consider any of Grokken, Tictock, SW or if you are unsure of WP, then him, but I am thinking WP might be green here. A check on Scott should have been done d1 and if you haven't done it now you may want to exercise caution if the vig held his shot, which could happen in a newbie game. Vigilante: Scott, Scott, Scott. Vig a scummy lurker who is least likely to help town (if he's town) By far, this person would be Scott. Shoot Scott. No, you should have done that yesterday  Medic: I would say any of the trio of Fidei, n00bking, or myself. Use your judgement. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 16 2015 14:23 Half the Sky wrote: Detective: 1) Grokken, 2) SW, 3) Tictock, 4) TJHiggins Caveat: I would NOT check Scott if you think there's a vig in this setup - he should be getting shot, so consider any of Grokken, Tictock, SW or if you are unsure of WP, then him, but I am thinking WP might be green here. A check on Scott should have been done d1 and if you haven't done it now you may want to exercise caution if the vig held his shot, which could happen in a newbie game. The bolded line is the only part of your wall of text I do not agree with, but only because it is not possible to have both Cop and Vig. A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon Also I'm voting for HtS for Towny of the Game. She is both the obvious Scum kill and the obvious Medic save.  | ||
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