EPTNydus, Fidei, Choco
If Damdred is scum, then it is safe to say he would be bussing his partners. So if Damdred is scum then the team is
Nydus, Choco, Damdred
I propose we lynch either Nydus or Choco tomorrow.
[M][N]Holy Guardians Chapter 1 - Page 9
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Nydus, Fidei, Choco If Damdred is scum, then it is safe to say he would be bussing his partners. So if Damdred is scum then the team is Nydus, Choco, Damdred I propose we lynch either Nydus or Choco tomorrow. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
What an evil scumteam to have killed off a replacement after one day phase (basically just enough time for her to get caught-up and get into the game). Anyways, I prob wont be making many big posts tonight kus I have other stuff going on but there was a few things I wanted to respond to. On June 09 2015 07:43 Fidei86 wrote: I also don't know whether to read anything into the fact that after both mis-lynches, TT has come out and said "well, I guess they were just bad town". I've never been mafia, so I don't know what that's like, but as town mislynching feels like the worst shit in the world. This is only true of my reaction to GG flipping town. I said Kick should have claimed sooner since that would have allowed Town to lynch someone else D1 and forced scum to NK Kick. Waiting to claim so close to EoD is fairly poor play in my opinion but it doesn't make Kick bad town or even a bad player, just was a bad call in that situation. I have the day off tomorrow so while I wont be very active tonight you can expect more from me tomorrow. I'm not sure if it's the best lynch but I'm going to do this for now... I'll explain why next post. ##Vote: Chocolate | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Oddly, it relates to this question... On June 09 2015 09:45 scott31337 wrote: If you got rid of the "Unvote" thing, do you still think milo is town? Honest Answer: I'd prob be scumming the hell out of him. I'm not a fan of his posts, I think they are weak and show no intention of pushing on scum. I'm not familiar with Video Mafia so it's possible this is a style he's developed playing that, but I have a hard time seeing town motivations in most of his posts. However, I can't ignore his actions EoD1. I've thought about it time and time again and the most likely scenario is that Milo is simply town, who panicked at seeing Kick claim Jailer and not understanding how plurality works here simply unvotes. Here is my thinking: I imagine 3 possible worlds here. 1) Milo is Scum and Choco is Town. If this were a reality then there is no way that Milo unvotes off a highly likely blue lynch. Vote switching might earn him a bit of towncred here, but it also draws tons of attention to himself. I don't find this very likely. 2) Milo is Scum and Choco is Scum. In this reality, Milo's unvote makes some sense, but it feels like a stretch with the threat of a modkill. Here Milo would be unvoting for towncred, showing he doesn't want to lynch a blue, but unwilling to hammer his partner. I find this scenario quite possible, if a bit strange. You might wonder, "well wouldn't Milo buss Choco here for the double towncred?" and while that would be an option it does seem like weak scum play to hammer your partner D1. 3) Milo is Town (note if Milo is town it doesn't matter what alignment Choco is, since Milo doesn't know himself) This is the reality I find most likely. Here Milo sees Kicks blue claim and in a panic unvotes but isn't sure who he wants to vote especially if he felt Choco was town. It is also very likely that Milo doesn't understand the voting rules here and doesn't realize that by unvoting he is liable to be Modkilled or that simply unvoting isn't enough here, he would have to vote on Choco to save Kick. I definitely find that 3rd reality to be the most likely one that we find ourselves in. 1 is kinda stupid scum play, and thus 2 is the most likely option if Milo is scum. So, I find that Milo's actions EoD1 only make sense from a scum perspective IF Choco is ALSO scum. This makes Choco an even better lynch today IMO. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
We are 6-3 today. We really cant afford any more mislynchs as it would bring us to 4-3 LyLo tomorrow if we don't lynch scum today. Because of this I don't think Milo should even be an option to be lynched today. While his posts have left a lot to be desired his unvote D1 is a very weird move if he were scum this game. It's definitely not impossible, but since the only way I can make sense of it is if Choco is also scum I find Choco is the much better lynch. It also helps that Choco had been largely scumread since D1 and keeps failing to live up to promises. I'm nowhere near done looking at this game. I think I'll check a few filters tomorrow when I have ample time and post more thoughts based on them. I'll make sure to give Shen a fair re-read given her flipping town, and will also reread Milo just in case I'm missing anything on him. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Your still that sure of your rule? Shen broke it as town... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
And now i know why. There has been like one page of filter since EoD1... this is D3 now right? Most of that is excuses and some other stuff. Here is what I picked out as interesting... His first effort at doing something after disappearing after D1. On June 08 2015 00:25 Chocolate wrote: Though I think GGT may just be trying to exonerate himself if I get lynched today In fact I feel that if I die and flip town a milo/fid/GGT team could be quite possible Which flips pretty quick... On June 08 2015 03:44 Chocolate wrote: Actually after thinking about it I don't think milo is scum, you guys are right in that whatever he did at the end of the day is pretty indicative of alignment (though do recall he didn't actually change his vote) Hopefully I have some time in the next few hours to make a vote, if not sorry Then he takes this stand... On June 08 2015 05:09 Chocolate wrote: I'm voting TT Don't wanna vote GGT because I think he's town. GGT makes a compelling case (I know this is a shitty reason to vote someone but I had no time today) and since I think he's town I'm going TT Really sorry for not being more productive, when I get back home I promise I'll kick the posting up a notch Really? Choco thinks GG has the most compelling case D2? Wasn't he scumming GG? What is Choco thinking himself though? On June 09 2015 01:41 Chocolate wrote: I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes: Both call each other town pretty early on Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie) As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely There he goes back on VE suddenly... He also threw out this weak read on Shen On June 08 2015 05:18 Chocolate wrote: Actually I don't think Shen is mafia for this reason If I were scum I'd never be as inactive as SL was the first day, even if I were about to get replaced Shen being very active today tells me more that he is trying to do town more of a service than dispel the read people were getting on sl He was also pushed moderately day1 before and after I brought it up which I don't have a good reason to feel suspicious but strikes me as fishy (though I do recognize that I was part of that crowd) Sorry it's not much of a case... but that's all there was in his filter. The flip in his reads looks pretty odd to me. It weakens my idea of Milo and Choco being scum partners that Choco would even suggest Milo as scum, but he takes back to read fairly fast so I'm not sure. He also flips really hard on GG while giving no reasons. I also dislike how VE just suddenly pops back up in Choco's scum reads. I find it especially interesting because it looks like he does this AFTER he starts scumming me, then gives some weak association to backup why. Honestly none of it looks good. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm starting to like the idea of a scumteam of Choco, Milo, and Fidei atm... Milo being scum makes a lot more sense if Choco is scum. I could also see Fidei being on the team since he has been supporting Choco a fair bit for very little reason. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 09 2015 20:46 Fidei86 wrote: @TT I agree with the general sentiment that you've played a good game up to this point. If you're mafia and you win, I think you will deserve it for sure. However, your last post makes me think things are starting to come apart at the seams a little bit, because a milo/chocolate team literally makes no sense to me. The situation at the end of EOD1 was that it was 5-4 to KS. Milo, at the last moment, after the role claim, took his vote off KS leaving it 4-4. If milo was scum with Chocolate, there is literally no reason for him to come off the KS wagon. He knew that I was around on the forums, and clearly Ritoky was because he posted just after EOD. So there was a very real risk that the vote would flip to Chocolate. Why would you bus a fellow mafia on day 1 right at the last moment to protect a blue, when you could very easily just AFK through it. That makes no sense to me whatsoever. The fact that you're contorting things to this degree just to try and get some sort of wagon going on milo with Damdred is extremely suspicious to me, ESPECIALLY when we have Onegu who is a confirmed and unabashed troll as a much juicier target, if you're truly a flailing towny. Honestly, the move also doesn't make sense even if milo is scum and Chocolate is town, because milo still would have no incentive to come off the blue for a different towny. This is a little less certain though, because I concede it is possible milo was doing some sort of next level play. But I think the strong likelihood is that he is town. My conclusions on Milo was that he was prob Town given the EoD stuff... Had Milo unvoted AND THEN voted Choco I would agree with you that a Choco Milo team makes no sense. I was thinking that the fact that Milo was unwilling to vote Choco suggested he was trying to protect him. It's a bit WIFOM I agree, I was just trying to make sense of Milo's actions EoD1 especially if they were scum modivated Also I was adding you into that team not because you support Milo, but because you've supported Choco so much in the l past without having great reasons too... Milo has also been doing this. I also have not been unsure of your alingment so you just kinda fell in there. I'll admit I'm only putting you in that team kus it kinda clicked when I thought about it, I've actually been ok with your play recently. So @ Fidei We might well be back in OMGUS spitting on each other here. Besides myself who are thinking is scum? I actually liked your points about Onegu. My issues with voting him early were that he would really just be a coinflip given his play, and there seemed to be better targets each day. Now I'm not sure if he's switching up his meta from what people have suggested, or if he's just useless town. I saw him pick it up on D2, not sure why that stopped... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 03:53 Chocolate wrote: I went back to look at the first day of reads All of TT's scum reads were either quickly withdrawn (KS, ritoky, damdred) confirmed town(SL, GG, arguably milo) and me Now, it's not conclusive evidence at all, but I think this is pretty damning. TT initially was only leveling accusations at people who were town (other than me, damdred, and arguably milo, who we are not sure about). All of our flips so far have been town so this is true of lots of people. However, ALL BUT THREE of these 7 people are confirmed town. Why are you stuck back in D1 man? There has been tons of content since then... Besides D1 is not the most reliable day to look at if you think my reads have been all over the place, everyone's reads D1 change very quickly. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 04:37 milo109 wrote: You do realize that if we lynch Chocolate and he flips town, tommorrow is hell on earth? You do realize, pointing that out while not doing anything helpful to find scum... is very unhelpful. I feel like your trying to scare us away from a Choco lynch... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
very unhelpful and probably scum motivated... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm not sure anymore tbh. The comparison looked good when I made it, but sleeping on it for a few days... eh it's possible but a stretch. Overall I'm liking Fidei more. I think he's been making some good points and arguments. Then there's stuff like this On June 10 2015 02:11 Fidei86 wrote: Can people start posting where their votes are going to fall at the moment? I think it's probably best to get those now, so we can discuss them, since we seem pretty fractured. ##VOTE: Ticktock Which as far as I can tell is because of my suggesting a possibility of a Choco, Milo, Fidei scumteam. OMGUS kus I suggested him as scum, and then moreso because he likes Choco and Milo. @ Fidei Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here as to why you are voting me. Honestly though, even if both Choco and Milo flip red I'm not 100% on Fidei. I just felt like he fit best into that team idea. I definitely still find Choco the best lynch today. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 05:02 Chocolate wrote: I haven't played a lot of mafia but one thing I do know is that scum doesn't like to call out other scum aside from bussing, etc. I'm not sure I buy this, but I get the idea. Scum will tend to ignore each other since they have a QT talk to each other and see where they are at and thus don't need to interact in-thread as much. I can also see why you see VE and myself as scum based on this. I'm wondering if you see the same thing happening elsewhere? You can keep focused on me and VE if you like, I just want to know if you find anyone else scummy... There is 3 mafia left after all. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 05:07 milo109 wrote: I've given my world a thousand times. VE/Damdred + 1. The plus one is the hardest one to find, since there are some many players lurking and playing mildly scummy. Anyway. Let's be productive then. Can Nydus/Ticktock/Scott consider the world where Templar, Choolate and I are all town? Who would be the mafia team then? It's the world I predict we're going to live in tommorrow, and I think it will help. Not sure why you threw GGTemplar in there, but ok I'll bite. If you and Choco (possibly just Choco since I have a hard time thinking you are scum if he isn't) were to flip town right now or w/e... I would probably be looking hard at Nydus and Damdred. I don't think they could be a team though since Damdred did a decent mini-case on Nydus earlier. I mean I could see Damdred bussing a teammate, but his read on Nydus came out N1 when there was no pressure on him before so I can't imagine that's what was happening here. Fidei would be exactly where he is in my reads still. I'd also be relooking at Scott and Onegu. ----------- I'm prob about to head out to run some errands, so will be lurking a bit more then running those. Will do my thing of reading filters and such when I get back later on tonight. Despite Choco scumming me for it, I feel pretty confident in my VE townread. I'll look over his filter later on if I have time though just to be sure I didn't miss anything | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 05:14 Chocolate wrote: I find fidei and milo unlikely to be mafia I think you and VE are mafia I'm unsure about the other people, and to be honest I don't really want to make a judgment just yet, mostly because I don't want people to feel threatened by me and not make the VE/TT vote, which I think we need Are you more certain that either VE or myself are scum? Who would you vote for if neither of us had votes on us yet? On June 10 2015 05:15 Chocolate wrote: I literally did last page twice. First example: I attack TT, VE attacks me Second example: GGT attacks VE, TT attacks GGT My attack on GG was in no way a defense of VE. GG forced D2 to be a day of Him vs Me since he kept pushing his insta-scumread on me. Naturally I pushed back on GG. I actually see VE lashing out at both you and GG as more of a direct reaction to the two of you scumreading him, than anything to do with me. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Sorry I don't think I have time to rehash my read on VE at the moment, tbh it was largely carried off what I saw in D1 and just haven't seen anything off him since that makes me think he could be scum. However between him being absent lately, and those posts by you and scott I think his will be the first filter I look at when i get back later. Also Fidei, I'm more interested in the reasons why people are voting for me or anyone else than simply who they are voting for atm. Since Milo started me thinking about a world where Choco is town (and I might be a little tunneled on him tbh), I'd have to say that in such a world a scumteam with Damdred and VE being scum here would make sense I'm tempted to suggest Scott would fit into a team like that as well, but I'm not sure that works. Eh this whole paragraph is likely just WIFOM thinking kus it's kinda just a floating thought atm. Sorry I need to head out and get stuff done, I'll try and explain my thinking better after I'm back. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 07:54 Fidei86 wrote: I vote laundry list. Seconded! would you rather me come back in here and show you why I'm town, including a laundry list of horrible things to say to the remaining players? Yep, lets light those fires under towns ass. + Show Spoiler + I hear town farts burn Green @ Fidei I recall Damdred saying he was still highly suspect of Choco N1, however he stopped mentioning Choco for the most part after it became clear D2 was about GG. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 08:14 Fidei86 wrote: Another reason why I think Chocolate is probably town is that literally nobody in the thread has spoken up for him at all, except me and milo. Nobody has said anything positive about him. That is even after the Day 1, where the people voting on KS were me, him, ritoky, Damdred and milo. Ritoky is confirmed town, and most people have milo confirmed town too. On the assumption that you believe I'm town, that leaves only Damdred voting on KS (other than Choco himself), and I'm pretty sure Damdred was on the Chocolate "wagon" before it even started. This analysis rings especially true because the vote was so close, one more mafia vote on KS would have swung it. Obviously this whole thing rests on the premise that milo isn't scum. We've all been over several times why we generally think milo is town. Therefore I think the only reasonable conclusion is that either Damdred and Chocolate are both mafia, or neither of them are. Has anyone noticed Damdred deflecting off Chocolate at all? I'm starting to really see Choco and Damdred as a possible team here actually. D2 both Choco and Damdred were much less active and backed off a lot in how much they were pushing their own thoughts in the game. Choco kinda just left the game for a bit and Damdred sheeped VE then later comes up with his own reasons to push on GG. Damdred was also pretty ready to push Choco is seemed like both D1 and N1 until he was interacting with ritoky EoD1. I'm starting to wonder if the discussion between scum!Dam and rit promted scum!Dam to move off his bus on Choco and push into Kick. This might also explain why rit was the N1 NK since rit and Dam seem to know each others playstyles and if Dam is scum here he might have pushed for rit to be killed before he caught on... Sorry that's pretty WIFOM until I can confirm how the discussion between Dam and rit when down, and when the notion of Dam bussing his scummates got brought up this game. Everything seems pretty darned plausible to me though... God, I'm not even sure what to make of today, everything is so up in the air... Choco still seems to be at the center of it all though, or at least close to it. I'm starting to think my vote may just stay on him... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On June 10 2015 09:05 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, so literally nobody has been defending Chocolate at all (except milo and I). I really think that says a lot, because if he were mafia I would have expected someone to at least lightly deflect off him, or to vote to save him. And now this post has me back to thinking that a Choco, Milo, Fidei team is possible again... Starting to think I'm tunneled on Choco and don't even know it really... @ Damdred So where are you right now, who are you thinking is most likely scum? Is scott right that VE's play is starting to look like his scum play? Did you disagree with my look at Milo's EoD vote? Did I miss some possibilities or something? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Not sure that breaks my tinfoil hat theory about Damdred killing Rit N1 but it was mostly just the ramblings of my brain while I did other stuff. Finally about to dive into filters, but right now I'm tempted to vote whoever suggested we start re-evaluate everything today just for the amount of headache I've gotten because of it. | ||
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