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[M][N]Holy Guardians Chapter 1 - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 01:42 GMT
#2161
On June 15 2015 10:11 milo109 wrote:
So I'm not sure who Scott's partner is, but it probably is Onegu. Scott's first three pages of filter are defending Onegu again and again.

On June 04 2015 14:18 scott31337 wrote:

I see this as Onegu's town game. He tries much harder as mafia and likes rolling mafia - but we can agree to disagree for now. He'll show some more when he feels the need.

Scott is the first aside from Onegu to mention the Chezinu rule, and then defends Onegu.

You should look at some of Onegu's previous games - I have mentioned before I read a whole bunch of his town and scum games. He tries harder as scum, gives more effort - throw in lots of confusion, etc.

On June 05 2015 03:09 scott31337 wrote:

Bad post - seems to look like trying to go for an Onegu Mislynch in my opinion, try to start a bandwagon. Is this from a town who doesn't like Onegu or a scum trying a wagon away from GG or Chocolate? I know Onegu isn't playing great, but he will shine his moments when need be or we can worry about him tomorrow. I don't want to lynch him today. Onegu thinks Chocolate and Milo are town though.

The perfect thing to say about your mafia partner to preserve him from the mislynch.

I love how you didn't even quote the nested here to hide the rest of the story.

On June 05 2015 03:09 scott31337 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2015 00:59 Fidei86 wrote:
On June 05 2015 00:36 Chocolate wrote:
It's a really hard choice, honestly since i'm not really sold on anyone being 100% mafia I would just get rid of Onegu/SL as my first choice because
1. it's easy to hide as mafia if you never contribute
2. even if they are town they aren't very helpful

unless someone makes a very good case for someone else or wants to vote one of these people with me I'll probably just leave my vote on VE because it looks like he isn't going to get lynched and (I think) we need to vote for at least somebody


I really agree with what Chocolate said about Onegu, save that the lurking is so obvious (and lurking is such a classic mafia play, as I understand anyway) that he would be mad to play like this if he were actually mafia. Still, I'm leaning towards voting for him just because I don't think there's any totally slam-dunk targets today and if we mislynch on him, at least we won't be losing anyone who is being a useful townie. Obviously I'm not saying that I want a mislynch, just saying that statistically the likelihood is quite high that we will, so we should take town-contribution into account as well when voting.

Some people sort of defended him earlier, saying that this was just his usual play style when he was town. Can we hear from those people again, just to get their read now we're going into the first night?


Bad post - seems to look like trying to go for an Onegu Mislynch in my opinion, try to start a bandwagon. Is this from a town who doesn't like Onegu or a scum trying a wagon away from GG or Chocolate? I know Onegu isn't playing great, but he will shine his moments when need be or we can worry about him tomorrow. I don't want to lynch him today. Onegu thinks Chocolate and Milo are town though.

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2015 01:50 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
I would like Scott's thoughts on my analysis of why the 'Chezinu rule' which he spent a great deal of thought on this game applies and points to 'Tictock' as scum pushing on Ritoky-Chezinu, not myself as scum pushing on Tictock-Chezinu.



I didn't spend a whole lot of thought, I copy/pasted most of what it was about from another thread. Your vote (and you never did really vote) was fairly early and seemed to be of starting a wagon going early. Do you know what I mean?

Show nested quote +
On June 05 2015 02:25 Damdred wrote:
If we policy lynch id rather lynch SL than oneg though because oneg has tl family things


I would agree because I do not see SL being re-motivated, but I'd rather not vote him today either unless you aren't seeing bigger fish.


Fidei didn't know how Onegu played, I have. I had more of a read on Onegu then Fidei at the time - Fidei sounded like he was trying to start a stir on him without calling him out, which was suspicious to me.

On June 11 2015 02:18 scott31337 wrote:
So KS's hard claim post was http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/view.php?post_id=24368838
and Milos unvote with proper BBCode was http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/view.php?post_id=24368841

There were a TOTAL of two Teamliquid posts in between these - and we know BH uses this number for RNG. Is this possible? Did scum!Milo see a soft claim and had this prepared?


He then tries to get rid of the unvote with a conspiracy theory.

My attempt (since both posts have a :59 timestamp) was to possibility determine the number of seconds in between then, since the website does not show that. There were four posts in between on all of TL. You have been acting scummy since the unvote night one and have been attempting to ride it until the wheels fall off. It's not going to work.

And uses it to push another town read on Onegu.

On June 11 2015 15:19 scott31337 wrote:
Milo with this carry fucking unvote sucks
NHM and Onegu are useless but I have to go with Onegu town to make this work


On June 11 2015 16:41 scott31337 wrote:
Tictock who do you want to lynch tomorrow?


He hopes to get Ticktock to help push a mislynch, but fails because Ticktock reads him scum.

Where do you get this from? Please help me understand.

On June 11 2015 17:39 scott31337 wrote:
If Tictock dies -

## Damdred/VE/Fiei86

If I die -

Tictock/Onegu/Milo

if Onegu dies -

Damdred/Milo/VE

If Damdred dies -

NHM/Onegu/Fidei86

If VE dies

Damdred/Milo/Fidei

If Milo dies

Damdred/VE/Onegu (doubtful)

If Fidei dies

Onegu/

If NHM dies

Why do I keep forgetting about NHM?

NHM needs to die.


THIS POST IS SO DUMB. TOWN WOULD NEVER POST THIS.

I had about 12 beers at the time and was upset about how the game was running. I take full responsibility for being a derp with that post.

On June 12 2015 13:48 scott31337 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 12 2015 13:40 Damdred wrote:

Because I'm not completely sold on Ticktock yet, and I'm trying to line up votes to avoid shenanigan plans.

For Onegu? I have to basically go on an instinct that he is town at this moment for the above reason or the games over anyway.


.....


(Responses in bold above)
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 05:22 GMT
#2163
On June 15 2015 14:05 Tictock wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Ok back again for a solid bit of time tonight. Starting to get my house situation sorted out so will have more time to put into this game again. Also I will be around for EoD this time.

So my personal opinion is still that Scott and Onegu are the scumteam here, with an outside chance that Milo is scum and I'm wrong about one of the other two. I'm going to make an attempt tonight to slim down possibilities so that town can focus on the right people.

Right now I just wanted to summarize where I see this game sitting.

At the moment it seems that the two main scum teams being considered is either Milo/TT or Scott/Onegu. I'm not sure thats the end of it, but that seems to be the main teams in discussion.

Thus far we have Scott voting Milo, based on his case. I'll revist this case in a later post. I don't think it's bad, and I may actually be willing to lynch Milo today but I'm not not convinced yet.

[b]So you go from this -


Scott is also scumming me, but I don't see much reasoning for this. Besides what I've mentioned before and argued against. I have to imagine he realizes he doesn't have a real case on me that's why he's pushing Milo today. Also it prob helps that Damdred said Milo should be lynched today and he was the NK.

I honestly don't know where Onegu stands. I asked him last night what his reads are after he suddenly flipped his Damdred read but he didn't have anything to share but more thoughts related to Damdred. The only thing I know for sure about Onegu is that he is hard reading Scott as town (and Scott is doing the same to him).

VE and Milo seem to be considering possibilities right now, and I'm not very sure where they stand on things.

And then there is me...

VE and Milo look like they have to be town to me here, as they are the ones trying to look at the game. Onegu is still a bundle of Null who at this point shared fewer thoughts or reads than Milo. Scott looks like he is scum trying to push his last potential mislynches and is somewhat flailing to explain why his world makes sense.

I'd like to remind Town of the case on Scott brought up by Damdred. My own (partial) read into Scott's filter followed by my conclusions. I also made a counter to Scotts "I'm Town" case...

I'm very tempted to just vote Scott here, but I want to make sure I'm not missing anything before I place my vote.
[/spoiler][/spoiler]

So all in the same post, you are saying my case is not bad, could lynch Milo - to very tempted to vote Scott here? This doesn't make any sense. It just sounds like you are taking note of the case, but blowing it off. You have to.

On your point of -
Scott is also scumming me, but I don't see much reasoning for this. Besides what I've mentioned before and argued against. I have to imagine he realizes he doesn't have a real case on me that's why he's pushing Milo today. Also it prob helps that Damdred said Milo should be lynched today and he was the NK.

Process of elimination. I've been weird on you still alive for a long time, especially when Day 4 came. You have to get me mislynched today. if Milo gets lynched and flips scum you're fucked and you know this.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 15:15 GMT
#2170
Look over my filter bud, do you see it from a town perspective? Look in the past days. Does it make sense? Have you already? If I was mafia, why would I shoot Damdred who had a lot more open mind, instead of you who seemed more at my head?

I wish I had more that Onegu I could go on, if I could show he's town, it would throw out this magic bus theory you have, right?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 19:17 GMT
#2191
I've rolled scum in the previous games - It's really easy actually (I just didn't do a vote for it, was never needed I posted baby seals)
Just have the votecount window open and a copy/paste of your vote if needed (or have two windows) because there is a vote count countdown in seconds (My machines about 20 seconds off of TL time)
With about 5-10 seconds depending how I feel on my net/PC/etc we both post votes just before :00 and you won't have time to react.

The PM is to let the host know it's a possibility and to re-check the thread and not jump to conclusions.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 21:33 GMT
#2200
I thought about that outside but it's impossible, he's town.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 21:34 GMT
#2201
I was thinking of making some Ritoky pics. I am unsure what else I can bring up to have him at least re-read the game.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 21:58 GMT
#2203
Scum aren't doing shit - I would be doubtful if we see another Milo post.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 22:04 GMT
#2205
Can't wait to read the Obs QT
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 22:14 GMT
#2208
VE said he read the game. We broke his magic bus theory. He's just got too much confirmation bias.

[image loading]

THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 22:50 GMT
#2210
I thought Damdred was scum until he posted his second thoughts post - and that I was on the right track. It's something I need to work on in the future - this is my first town game I didn't get lynched day 1. I had three votes and still had very little idea of who the scum team was. Damdred has this mixed feature play where he does not give off too much as either alignment, and he was a mixed bag. I set that trap for you and you passed, you were my most confident read at the time. I waited for Milo to post his vote, and then I reacted. When I saw Damdred's post there's no reason for him to post this unless he was town. so I had to give him the benefit of the doubt then after I had four votes. I was willing to vote TT but Damdred wasn't, so that idea was out - I changed my vote off of Damdred (since he has to be town now, right?) - You were down for a vote switch- and then after talking to him about NHM or Onegu, we went on NHM. I still wasn't sure he was mafia at this time, but I knew I was town, and have to trust Damdred being town now, so I feel at least better about this lynch.

To be honest, I was thinking the game was going okay at that time, that Damdred was mafia at the time,You're right, I shouldn't have waited for the fourth vote, I should've pushed another lynch earlier and that was my blunder.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 23:16 GMT
#2212
We would've lost the game if people stayed on me or Damdred at the time. There is no reason Damdred decides this is a bad lynch if he's mafia - NONE. If NHM was town, it's over but at least we tried, right? It's why I wrote I'm still worried but at least I feel better, because we at least tried something that wasn't an autoloss.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 15 2015 23:47 GMT
#2216
On June 13 2015 04:43 GlowingBear wrote:
Day 4 Vote Count

Damdred (3): Onegu, Scott, milo109, NydusHerMain
Scott (3): Damdred, VisceraEyes, Tictock

Not Voting (1): milo109

Currently, Damdred is set to be executed. Day 4 ends in at 21:00 GMT (+00:00).
The voting thread is located here.
Posting after the deadline and before the flip will result in a modkill.
Failure to vote once will result in a warning.
Failure to vote twice will result in a modkill.



Because they showed they were town because they changed their mind on my lynch. VE wouldn't switch if he was mafia, Damdred isn't mafia with wanting to change his mind - that leaves you and TT - I mentioned TT and Damdred said he would only vote Onegu or NHM - Our best chance in my opnion at the time was NHM.

I'll be back in a couple hours.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 17:32 GMT
#2294
On June 17 2015 00:57 Tictock wrote:
Holy....

I didn't expect to wake up and see this many pages of back and forth between Milo and Onegu... Funny how both of them are suddenly so active today compared to the rest of the game.

I've got somethings to deal with today still but overall I should be around through EoD today. I see that Onegu and Scott still are sticking to the votes last EoD as their argument for being town, which just keeps perfectly in line with the bus on Nydus theory IMO.

I was going to try and make a new case on scott last night, but fell asleep before I got more than a page or two into his filter. Think I'm burnt out on the filter dives anyways this game...

So to quickly recap, Damdred made his Case.

Scott posted a "Town case" for himself, which I responded too.

Then there was the filter dive I did, followed by my conclusions.

I'm certain Scott is mafia here, and since he has been hard defending Onegu and vise-versa I want to conclude that they have to be the scum team...

The fact that this game isn't over (scum hasn't conceded) has me a tad bit worried. When Scott flips red, then it has to be either VE or myself to be the NK. Whoever is left tomorrow, reconsider everything! There is a slim chance that we've overlooked Milo bussing scott before he left on his trip then Nydus gets back and tells his team to bus him instead, or that slime chance about VE.

I'm convinced Scott is the correct lynch today, I just don't want Town to have gotten through 2/3 of this LyLo to get tunneled and loose on the last day.


Why would you be worried that scum has not conceded? Intelligent scum only concede when there is no chance of winning. You two have plenty of chance of winning if VE does not see the light. It's interesting why you would post this or reference this.

I'm here now, had some morning errands to do (I'm in the west US) but I should have all day until deadline.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 17:35 GMT
#2295
On June 16 2015 21:11 milo109 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2015 02:59 scott31337 wrote:
My order would be -
Tictock
Milo
VE
Damdred
Fidei
NHM
Onegu
Chocolate



................................ It's almost as if he takes the town, puts them at the top, and then takes his mafia partners and puts them at the bottom. Show me where he read NHM as scum, not fence or town.


Why are you referencing a six day old list post to fit your agenda? I have many newer ones.

On June 16 2015 21:23 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 12 2015 13:19 scott31337 wrote:
Tictock, so I just checked NYM's filter and he interacts extremely little with you, even though you have one of the biggest filters. What do you think about that and NYM?

VE I think it's off. We just have to keep the votes consistent - all the townies need to vote one person anyway.

I just am seeing Tictock and Damdred going after me now which from a town perspective seems strange - but from mafia they are like "Welp he's the lowest fruit now, let's GG it out!"

## Tictock/Damdred/NHM maybe?

Who do you want to lynch today?



Here he reads NHM scum. Abit before he votes TT then changes to NHM


Thank you - My reads can change you know.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 18:46 GMT
#2298
1. I already had started a case on Milo I started from the night before I went to bed, and finished it in the morning - you never replied to it at all - Damdred saw some decent points in it though,
On June 15 2015 03:27 Damdred wrote:
It's not a bad case, I think a great point is how he has a scum read on tt but only votes me that day.

Could of possibly lynched tt maybe...

Anyway he's been really right all game.


What do you not like about my case?

2. Milo's play has been scummy beyond the unvote, and he's trying to ride it until the engine blows up.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 18:53 GMT
#2300
I mean look at the above post I made - why is he using a Day 3 list post from six days ago to show his agenda, when I have Day 4 ones after I've re-evaluated? That's not scummy to you?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 18:56 GMT
#2302
You were quoted one right afterwards.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 19:03 GMT
#2305
Past days do matter if there's a lack of reasonable analysis and re-evaluating.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 19:51 GMT
#2310
Why would it not matter if you are wrong? Don't you want to win?!?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 16 2015 20:26 GMT
#2317
On June 17 2015 04:56 VisceraEyes wrote:
And it seems like I'm the only one trying to figure anything out - everyone else seems to be sure about the world we're in.

GAH!!!


Just look at it from my point of view and you would understand -

Me and Onegu are tunneled because we are right and town, There's no other team that it could be.
Milo & TT have to defend themselves since scum - they COULD'VE gone after you, which would've been extremely dumb, or could've gone after Onegu, which would've been interesting, but doubtful.

You are the towns hope. You have even re-read the game, which is all I was asking for from yesterday when you seemed tunneled.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
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TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
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