Newbie Student Mafia X

On May 22 2015 17:07 Barakos wrote:
@batsnacks: You said you were able to read stuff into the way people interpret your iching-writing. What do you make of disformations interpretation?
And what do you get out of Tictocks response to your writing?

On May 22 2015 17:23 sicklucker wrote:
Did you guys just plan your list posts in the qt or something

On May 22 2015 17:26 Breshke wrote:


Yes that seems to summaries it well. Being new though I could understand the lack of conclusions thing though.

Also could you explain why my reasoning on SL was bad.

To explain it again. It was told to everyone that QT's were available from 24 hours before the start of day. SL gave a town read on disformation because he said he didnt think he could post so fluently in the thread and would be trying to interact in the scum QT instead. I showed SL he was wrong and scumread him for basically giving away a free town read. He then continued to not give any reads and instead said he was town because of a dumbtell which could EASILY be faked and SL would do it in a newbie game he is disgusting like that.

Yes im not pushing this that hard and did so to push the game forward but i don't see how it is "bad" reasoning. Could you explain this to me please?

On May 22 2015 08:48 Breshke wrote:
It also says the all Qts were active in the like initial start of game post.

I'm not going to read you for a dumbbell SL I'm going to read you on giving nonsensical town reads and not thinking critically about the game

On May 22 2015 17:27 sicklucker wrote:
Like rels townread on barokos is given so easy and he posted like 6 minutes before he posted that huge list post.

So were to believe he wrote that in 6 minutes or was nonstop pressing f5 to see if anyone posts as he made his list post?

Potentially planned their stock as potential teammates went up

On May 22 2015 17:30 Breshke wrote:
SL I think it is safe to assume rels wrote that thing in different parts.

He has a section with multiple people in it called "People I really liked" but then says that disinformation is "The only person I really liked". This is null obviously but I think it like clears up whatever you are trying to get at in this post

On May 22 2015 17:28 sicklucker wrote:
Rels voting a 0 poster is -ev. Better to vote someone you slightly suspect then a 0 poster that might be replaced or modkilled.

Dont be afraid now

On May 22 2015 17:30 boxerfred wrote:

While I understand that, I always thought yolo'ing votes on the first day is a stupid thing to do :/

On May 22 2015 17:58 sicklucker wrote:


below expected value. It just means its not a good lynch based on numbers. If theirs a chance he can be modkilled even if small its a waste of a lynch

On May 22 2015 10:54 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Everyone who is considered a newbie, answer this: What is the most important thing you think has happened in the game so far?

On May 22 2015 19:07 boxerfred wrote:

Well I'm AFK since I am on an EU schedule. However since I dislike people that vote for me, I'm willing to vote for them. However, I feel like voting randomly / for no reason rather means that someone wants to make a destructive impact to the game which strongly speaks for them being an evildoer. Thus I'd strongly recommend Rels to be checked upon.

On May 22 2015 19:17 boxerfred wrote:
I have no idea who I should vote for :/

On May 22 2015 19:34 boxerfred wrote:

Yeah I hate being voted out in first rounds because it just ruins the game for me. I'm a bad loser.

My most scum read is Bill Murray but it's more indications than bullet proof theories.

On May 22 2015 08:33 Tictock wrote:
@Breshke

Humm you have a point. He did post an handful of stuff pretty fast and then bounce. Seems to be have just made a weak townread and then the weak towny post about not confusing us newbies.

Last game when he was town he never gave a shit about confusing us newbies. Now he's making this post defending newbies and town reading Dis, one of the newbies who was also in the last game with us. This does seem like he's scum motivated.

On May 22 2015 13:27 sicklucker wrote:
bill murray is lynch bait.

definition - a guy who always looks scummy and gets lynched

not saying dont lynch him but keep that in mind

On May 22 2015 20:19 Barakos wrote:

The thing in his filter, that looks a bit suspicious is the way he attacked you and me because our posts were 6 minutes apart and yours contained a comment on my post. He just dropped in basically said "you two are mafia together and plan your posts in your qt" and drops out without any form of questions or followup. Didn't like that at all. Especially since he doesn't even directly say "you two are mafia and are making plans together", which would be a valid accusation, someone could track back to him. He does it subtly without commiting to his suspicion and that's kinda putting me of.
He'll have to anser to that, once he returns.

On May 22 2015 20:19 Barakos wrote:
The other thing is, that he soft-defends bm at several occasions, saying bm is a troll and lynchbait and that's something I agree with.. bm is kind of unreadable for me at the moment, so lynching him at this point would be a coinflip.

On May 22 2015 22:28 Rels wrote:
Nice! Looking forward your reactions when you're finished!

On May 22 2015 22:23 boxerfred wrote:


"WIFOM"?

On May 22 2015 22:39 plotspot wrote:


sh*t, I won't get this conversation unless some friendly soul explains to me what "scum qt" means in this context or in general. qt as in cutie, right? but "scum qt"? also "wonders of scum qt"? wat?

On May 22 2015 22:41 27ninjabunnies wrote:



Okay, so let's look at this post.

First off, I actually like you. I disagree with the pushon you.

Secondly, the vote on SL was due to him first coming into the thread with "Confirmed town".
Troll post=troll vote.

However, I haven't moved my vote on SL because SL hasn't done anything to prove to me he is town. I'll go over this a bit later.

When saying Breshke and SL were partners, in part I was joking. I was trying to get some type of reaction from SL, which if I remember correctly I don't think I ever got. It was Breshke that actually started questioning this, which I really REALLY like of Breshke. As SL said, I shot him as vig in a previous game, he was mafia. I usually have a good read on Breshke, and this questioning makes me think that Breshke is town.

So even if I didn't get information out of SL from this (SL prob still my top lynch, followed by newbie Boxer for that awful first couple of posts), I did get information on Breshke's alignment.

On May 22 2015 22:22 disformation wrote:

When asked about stuff that I also pointed out the reaction is total deflection and trying to laugh it of. Me no like.

On May 22 2015 22:45 Tictock wrote:
Ok BF, I'm more sold that you are just new now.

On May 22 2015 23:04 27ninjabunnies wrote:

This makes me think there is a HIGH connection between Dis and BF, which makes me want to lynch them both.

And makes me think I might be wrong on Dis....

On May 22 2015 23:13 boxerfred wrote:

I even said pre-game that I am somewhat used to mafia games, just not the TL forum version, so you're not finding any secrets there.

On May 22 2015 22:27 boxerfred wrote:

I just read this but, as said above, gotta continue working. I'll ##unvote and read about this later. Thus far, I'm not understanding every point of your argumentation and I surely will require some time to iterate over the given posts and see them in context.

On May 23 2015 00:15 disformation wrote:
@plotspot: You stated that you think that mafia is/was already active in the thread trying to test the waters. Who would you pick out as Mafia?

On May 23 2015 00:43 plotspot wrote:


"@plotspot: You stated that you think that mafia is/was already active in the thread trying to test the waters. Who would you pick out as Mafia?"

To be honest I'm not quite sure.
About Breshke: Initially I thought Breshke was scummy for his quick jumping on SL. But then I figured it was just his way of applying pressure on him to see his (SL's) true color. Breshke appears very townish. Breshke is like the NB VII game I played with him, very collected and professional. Though I have to point out, it didn't help us in the end since town still lost, when he couldn't figured out the real cuprits.

About BM: he is always borderline provocative and scummy. But I think he is intelligent and a keen observer.

These are the two that have given me some scum vibe so far. Last game (NV VIII) I was replaced due to illness. This was a game where I observed that scums are usually REACTIONARY and CAREFUL of some sorts. After having a first impression of the thread by having read it all, I will filter-read everyone now in order to find patterns of reactionary and careful behaviour.
Yeah expect something in less than to 6 hours, I'm actually still at work and totally underestmiated to time it took for all this again. I'm lucky that my work load is rather flexible, but still, it's already out of plan here.

On May 22 2015 17:07 Barakos wrote:
@batsnacks: You said you were able to read stuff into the way people interpret your iching-writing. What do you make of disformations interpretation?
And what do you get out of Tictocks response to your writing?

On May 22 2015 18:03 Rels wrote:

Alright thanks (=

Now since you're there:
What do you think of disformation ?
What do you think of Breshk's pressure ?

On May 22 2015 18:32 Rels wrote:
Second, about BM, see the quotes below (in spoiler so this post is not too long):
+ Show Spoiler +
So @SL @Batsnacks and @Anyone that has every played with BM:
Is there something I don't know ? Cause for me he is the most obvious scum of the thread, but is it normal for him even for town ?

On May 23 2015 01:54 batsnacks wrote:
Wow lots of Europeans in this game. I skimmed the last 5ish pages.

I have items of interest:

Rels you should narrow down your "would lynch" list to at most 2 people, preferably one. Having too many "would lynches" can lead to you being able to pick any optimal target you want as mafia. That said its I don't think you're mafia and it's great that you have found so many different things to be suspicious of. But yeah, moving forward its best to narrow that list down by a lot.

On May 23 2015 02:16 batsnacks wrote:
@disinfo No. I don't do the quote/comment on quote thing. What I said about boxerrfred is going to be a take it, leave it, or tell me why it's wrong sort of things.

On May 22 2015 23:00 Rels wrote:

I have the opposite view actually. Before you started pressuring him, I was sure he was a newbie. Now that you made him post more I'm not so sure ... I will quote everytime he said he was newb or something like that in his filter. Everything in the spoiler:

+ Show Spoiler +

That's 5 times for 13 posts.

On May 23 2015 00:00 Rels wrote:


There are other things:

First,
you make a few posts that don't help. They are just noise. Example:
+ Show Spoiler +

Second, this:

You have time to defend yourself, but you don't have time to comment on the post you said you were going to comment.

And finally, 27nb's post about you.
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 23 2015 08:09 disformation wrote:


Which raises two questions:
1) Why is SL's statement that SL is lynch bait this important to him?
2) Where does he get the misslynch from? TMI?

Also no information of who he would vote now or how his reads changed over the day.
In hindsight his behaviour so far also looks like "okay lets do 1-2 town posts and then gtfo out of the fray."

On May 23 2015 08:23 27ninjabunnies wrote:


Why the distance from BF now, it seems?
Like, when I ping you out for a connection you seem now to be so upset.
The Ugh. Reread.... Basically when he is being pinged out for being scum.
This is all just scummy from you

Main dish huh? I've been told I'm pretty delectable

As for the SL read, give me a few hours. Just got off of work, and been working for 8 of those hours between then, I forgot what I was even going to say on SL. Rereading a bit

On May 23 2015 08:25 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Oh, and I think the above post is a great basis for

##Vote:Disformation

On May 23 2015 09:09 disformation wrote:


Hmm... you are right. I should demote you from main dish status and give that to BF.
Think I got to excited about the possible TMI Slip by Sulfurus and the possibility of getting two mafia out of it, if there was a connection to you.

Oh, well this bodes well for tomorrow. At least you people will have something to talk about. xD

On May 23 2015 09:22 disformation wrote:




Possible TMI slip. Basically calls BM a misslynch out of the blue. I want to know his reaction/what he has to say about that.
You did read my case, right?

On May 24 2015 07:25 sicklucker wrote:
you can. mafia wont shoot you because theirs other roles and we have a confirmed town to lead us its really fine.

On May 24 2015 07:34 sicklucker wrote:
If mafia kills the vig tonight thats good.. he still gets off his shot and are that would mean are other role/roles are safe...

On May 24 2015 08:03 disformation wrote:
Well. 1/3 mafia down.

On May 24 2015 07:57 Rels wrote:
Yeah for scum lynched (= happy about that.

I think vig should not claim before shooting.


I would agree if we were sur to have a doc. But we don't know that it is not an open setup.


No it's not good.

Vig should claim day 2 if he shooted:
- if he is not counter claimed, we have a confirmed blue
- if he is counter claimed, we have another scum lynch in day 3 in the worst scenario.

On May 24 2015 08:16 disformation wrote:


Hmmm. I am just assuming that since 3 mafia is the norm for 13 player games here. At least that was the case in all the games I have played in / read. Quickly read over the op, but wasn't able to find any information there. It just says "This game uses a semi-open setup for 13 players; that is, all the possible roles are given but the number of each is not known. Not all of the roles will necessarily be present."

On May 23 2015 22:40 plotspot wrote:
Well, I'm at p15 now, hope to at least catch up to the post I made yesterday with my "analysis". I do realize that it might prove not to be helpful at the end (what if there are no particular patterns?). But I just thought I can be a complimentary part to town by looking at it in a more statistical, factual way. It's there. With enough effort, everyone can do it. We already have a lot of people here standing guard, being pro-active, keeping mafia on their toes with their thread presence. My statistics might prove helpful if you can use it to support your claims.

On May 22 2015 08:33 Tictock wrote:
@Breshke

Humm you have a point. He did post an handful of stuff pretty fast and then bounce. Seems to be have just made a weak townread and then the weak towny post about not confusing us newbies.

Last game when he was town he never gave a shit about confusing us newbies. Now he's making this post defending newbies and town reading Dis, one of the newbies who was also in the last game with us. This does seem like he's scum motivated.

On May 22 2015 13:27 sicklucker wrote:
bill murray is lynch bait.

definition - a guy who always looks scummy and gets lynched

not saying dont lynch him but keep that in mind

On May 24 2015 15:36 sicklucker wrote:
rels was my lynch bro

On May 24 2015 15:43 sicklucker wrote:
im vulnerable tictock have any questions for me?

On May 24 2015 15:45 Tictock wrote:
Already asked dude, though I'd also like to know your thoughts on 27nb and BM.

Off to play games, bbl.

On May 24 2015 15:34 sicklucker wrote:


yes its going to always be 3 mafia in 13 player format but if theirs a sk then 2? im not getting many mafia reads so thats possible.

On May 24 2015 15:47 Breshke wrote:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/473002-metal-mini-mafia

You were in this game SL and i kno you remember it because its one of the ones you love to mention so much because its the first one i got vig shot in. It had 3 mafia and an SK in a 13 player setup.

On May 24 2015 14:01 Bill Murray wrote:
i dont mind being shot
i admit ive been a bit inactive
moving into the new house ... i was posting more from the hospital lol

On May 09 2015 01:29 Stutters695 wrote:

Nah, exam week. 2 games going on. I just haven't had the time to play how I really want to. Apologies for that, I miscalculated the time investment to really read two games.

If you guys want to vig me, I completely understand, no hard feelings. I'm running some errands before I have to work. Now that my exams are done I'll have significantly more time but my weekend is pretty booked with mother's day/going to a theme park Saturday (20 dollar tickets ftw).

If you want I can explain whatever questions you have, but I know it looks real bad and it won't get better until Sunday evening.

I'll get some reads out by EoN so you guys have something to go off of when I'm gone.

On May 24 2015 18:08 sicklucker wrote:



this is what a hammer vote looks like newbs. write it in your notepad

I also pressured/encouraged bats into following me

On May 22 2015 11:20 sicklucker wrote:
Sulfurus I got a n0 red check no you what say you?

On May 22 2015 11:39 Sulfurus wrote:
@sicklucker I think you are executing this rxn test very poorly since you just congratulated me on having "the best post in the thread" which you probably wouldn't do to some1 you have a red on.

On May 12 2015 22:46 cakepie wrote:
Questions:
Once the game is underway, all questions to the hosts must be sent as PMs, do not ask in the thread. You are not allowed to say in thread you’re going to ask the hosts something, and you are not allowed to share your answer with the thread. If the question is a clarification all town needs to know, the hosts will post an announcement in the thread.

On June 03 2015 15:56 Tictock wrote:
Wait did SL really send you PM's BF?

That is such an asshole move SL, I didnt think you'd stoop that low...

That really pisses me off

On June 03 2015 16:37 sicklucker wrote:
i mean its a bit meh and i regret it. But its in a sitation where he cced me AND the games mathematically over. I get that hes newer and may have thought he had a chance but like everyone in the game is confirmed town like comeon I feel like it was worse then a slow role

On June 03 2015 22:59 boxerfred wrote:
So here's the masterplan:

I was voting bunnies so fucking often. D2, D3, and it was really risky. Day 2, my vote would've been the decider to get her lynched. Day 3 - I couldn't know that bats would jump on Sulf and Dis would coinflip on Sulf, too. So we figured out that we needed the last scum member to have huge town cred. I wanted to vote on Sicklucker at the end of D4, he'd be lynched, flip town, boom boxerfred goes down, boom bunnies is so fucking confirmed that she can easily get the lynch on Dis, especially with plots playing strange and tictocks going all tinfoil-hatty. Of course there'd always be the possibility of me getting out of the lynch, I think at this point pushing Barakos wouldn't have been too hard, given that bunnies would not have been dead.

However, I misunderstood the lynching rule. I thought that whoever gets voted on most recently, dies. That made the whole plan blow up.

That error, in conjunction with SL's behaviour, really made me feel dumb. So I decided to grab a straw: plots' "yolo block". When I found out that this would not work, it was easy for me to claim that I was blocked, CC'ing SL. By now I think it would've been even better to have claimed that I was not blocked: I would only say that SL lied, even without CC'ing him, thus making Dis still a probable scum member.

If the lynch on SL would've gotten through, the game was still winnable. Even in the situation of CC'ing SL, I had a thing prepared: when he'd be lynched and flip town, I'd just say that he lied about having been blocked for the sake of confirming me scum. I think with tictocks alive as the decider between disinfo and me, this might have actually worked out.

However I'm not wasting another 48hrs + 24hrs + 24/48hrs on someone who's continuesly dragging the game in the mud. I'm here for the funsies, not for the frustrations. Therefore I conceded even before EoD. I think the chances of actually winning this game for scum were somewhere around 20-40%, depending on Dis' behaviour D4.

GG, thanks for the fun and the effort to all