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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 27 2015 05:43 Eden1892 wrote: Yo I'm at work and my shift starts in 15m. If this is real can I find out before the top of the hr? Tia it's not real. If it's real you can have VEs left ball | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
We got lucky last night because they apparently had to RB the medic to get rid of the cop but why would you claim to have the orb this night... | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 28 2015 00:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Here's how I see it. Mafia already know who's town and who's scum so they don't really come into a sudden insight. Town definitely can, and it feels like as he was reading he came to this realization. That's how the whole exchange felt to me. except that this is a text based forum and not voice mafia. No matter how you look at it that post can not have been sudden and he has done it at least somewhat intentionally. He can come to a sudden insight as town but that that doesn't mean he has to make a post like that because by nature of doing that it's not sudden anymore and he's going through what he's going to type out at. The post is at best slightly townish because it shows willingness to open up his state of mind. The rest about it is just whatever. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 28 2015 00:38 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If you post in a stream of consciousness as I usually do and you type fast, it's pretty much instant. I regularly post things that come up to me without thinking about it. That's how that felt to me too. but I'd say even if the situation is him being town, in that situation he's doing it on purpose for comedic reasons, which is why I meant it's about wether it's that or him trying to look like he's changing reads. It's not like you think a lot about it, but you come to a realization which, given the situation, makes you laugh out because it was a shitty one for him and the change of mind itself would have been somewhat sudden (there probably was a lead-up to it but it felt sudden). And you jokingly deal with it that way mentally. I'd still not call it something sudden unless it's voice or video mafia. At least that's what it's like for me when I make posts like that. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 28 2015 01:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I feel like this is semantics though (regarding the word "sudden"). Sure, the way he delivered it was comedic, but it felt genuine in that I can recognize myself coming to such a realization as well, and that I find it much easier to imagine such a thing as town than as mafia. but that's a difference. If you think it's genuine that's fine and that's what you should have pointed out. The statement itself just isn't alignment indicative by itself. It's the tone and situation that makes you think it's genuine here. I mean I agree with it slightly pointing towards town but we're running out of people that we're willing to lynch at this point and have to take into consideration that some of those small tone-reads can be faked, especially if (I think it was Eden?) doesn't want to lynch ritoky either. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 28 2015 02:13 Eden1892 wrote: Seriously I need to just afk at deadlines once I decide on a lynch. Way too vulnerable to AtE at the end. I'd probably go with Superbia / ritoky / Fecalfeast if I had to pick a team right now. Superbia for aforementioned reasons, ritoky for dropping off the face of the planet once he was given a day to prove himself town, Fecalfeast because I tend to weigh the tone argument across the whole game higher than the tone argument in the one exchange with rsoultin. that's a given and that needs more attention. Townreads, especially based on tone early on, are something that may develope due to a specific reason, but in the end they're a bag of tons and tons of small townreads you should have on someone. There is almost no such thing as "one post that proves someone is town because of the tone of it" and as such it should be treated as an overarching read. They don't work like mafiareads in that a single slip or weird post/attitude can be enough to prove someone mafia. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
if I make it alive you can ask me tomorrow | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 28 2015 02:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote: You can post it in the 20 min that actions can no longer be changed Toad. I can give you an update of my sheet, I'm still working by PoE and feel fairly confident that there's at most 5 people that can be mafia. Last 20 minutes havn't really been working for me the last couple days ever since I changed my sleep schedule to get used to waking up earlier again, thus waking up at 5am and not usually staying up until 24:00. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 22 2015 10:41 Toadesstern wrote: is tomorrow early afternoon already today? My sleep schedule is really fucked up right now  But I have a final on the 30th and will probably have to tone down a little like 27th up to 30th so yeah the sooner the better. As a heads up, I'm probably going to try and stay up on the 29th as that's deadline day and the final itself isn't thaaat early but don't count on me being there until the last hour... | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Anyways: On March 28 2015 07:56 Eden1892 wrote: Legacy post Lynch out of Superbia, FF, ritoky, Breshke. Be skeptical of the orb user. Question them extensively on their choice rationale and result That's where I'm at as well. Maybe damdred if shit goes down south badly. Breshke I don't really want to lynch today, FF I could myself getting onto but I'd prefere the lynch between Superbia and ritoky for today. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Looking back at d1/n1 with the info we now have, writing this down as if I'm looking down on me from someone else position: The wagons where on LS at some point but mostly between BM, Vivax and Toad. We also "know" that Vivax shot Alakaslam and got roleblocked We also "know" that Toad shot VE We also "know" that mafia probably wanted BM dead over Vivax and Toad by virtue of Palmar switching over last second when he had all the reasons he needed to tell us he keeps on tunneling me resulting in a Vivax-lynch. What we get from that is that mafia probably felt pretty safe to at least get that d2 lynch, why else would Palmar risk that voteswitch? Most likely explanation is that they rb'ed Vivax on purpose for confusion. Both to not lose a possible as well as easy mislynch in Alakaslam (as we've seen last day) as well as getting the "wait, how do we know Vivax isn't just lying?" reaction when only 3 people flip starting d2. People getting mad that HFs plan did not give any information about the vigs alignment and all. They probably either shot into protection (Onegu) or were stopped from killing someone (Onegu). That specific issue isn't something for this post but just for completeness sake. As such I think that mafia really did feel good. While Rayn/ritoky are an option for today it's a little hard to believe for me that him being mafia leads to mafia thinking they're good to get the ML on d2 no matter what, when a lynch on Toad or Vivax should have made them think that'd give a lot more traction for another ML in whoever did not get lynched that day. Just think about people shouting "Aaaah, Vivax flipped town, lynch Toad!" or "Aaaah, 'Toad flipped town, lynch Vivax!". That seems like the easier ML to get to me. Rayn was scumread by HF, who flipped that night and people went back to read HF that night because of it. Maybe they thought the lynch was so set in stone between Vivax and Toad that they can take that risk and go for the confusion RB to keep Alakaslam alive as a mislynch but the more plausible answer should be that none of the mafias was in serious danger of getting lynched d1 imo. I'm fairly confident that had we not gotten that track result on LightningStrike we probably would have lynched Rayn that day after Vivax and I calmed down. At the VERY least he was a serious contender for some lynching comming his way. Thus I'd say we lynch superbia over ritoky. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If anything Eden being shot should make you think they want him dead because his reads over Trfel if you really think Trfel should have died instead. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
About the "clouding the discussion", could be, especially if they already knew they're going to shoot HF and get him (?). He made the lynch switch to BM and could have been they were scared he'd be able to get that done on d2 as well (assuming he survives / they don't shoot him). I mean my entire point is that getting BM was apparently valued higher than Vivax or Toad so I don't disagree with that. I just think that if Mafia was desperate and scared to lose someone d2 going for either of the two vigs on the d1 lynch would have been the safer play for them? And as I say that I realized that all of Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar (holy fuck that took forever) were late switchers as well and not just Palmar | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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