On March 21 2015 08:00 Half the Sky wrote:Day 1: Current Vote CountBill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar Vivax (7): Holyflare, Artanis[Xp], Damdred, LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, rsoultin, Palmar, Damdred LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray, Toadesstern, FecalFeast, raynpelikoneet, Vivax, Onegu Toadesstern (1): Palmar, Artanis[Xp], raynpelikoneet, Vivax, VisceraEyes, Palmarsicklucker (1): Eden1892, Holyflare, rsoultin, Alakaslam, Superbia, Alakaslam, Eden1892, Breshkeraynpelikoneet (0): Holyflare, Damdred, rsoultin, Trfel, ExO_, DamdredNot Voting (0):Currently, Bill Murray is set to be executed. Day 1 ends in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00).
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I'm going to be working from this mostly tonight tomorrow i'll probably expand a bit more or Monday depending on time constraints, I kind of want to look at the other wagons and see how they fell apart but this is probably the most important i'm deleting the failed wagons at this point but leaving wagons with single voters on it.
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Firstly I want to talk about the claims a bit going forward,
HF and Oneg are confirmed town. There is no reason at all for mafia to claim Mason early in the game. For starters you give up two of your team mates just in case one flips on a cop check or a rogue vigilante shot. They are the easiest people in the game to confirm 100%. Its idiotic for anyone to say that HF or Onegu are scum because of X. HF made the right call in the long run if HF flips scum, then onegu has to flip scum. its simple, mafia don't claim mason in this type of situation so people quit being bad.
Two vigilantes are sort of likely in my mind. BH has had two vigilantes before in one of his games which makes ti more possible and then when you add in the orb which is basically a randomized killer in some instances it sort of makes more sense to me. The orb can act as another kill power for mafia or town, so another vig to help with a bit of balance makes a little sense to me. For now i'd rather just leave this alone and focus elsewhere.
Rayns tracker claim is possibly the most meh to me as its hard for me to see so many hard confirming roles on people especially with masons in the game. I still think it might be true at this point though.
(And 5 power roles makes sense in this setup with a weaker mason and a weak tracker also. Three weak roles and two strongers mafia probably has stronger roles in this setup as well if this is the case)
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Now moving back to the voting,
Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes,
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
Not Voting (0):
Taking out the strikes at this juncture just for a clearer reading.
Here we have confirmed BM who flipped green pushed by Mason HF to not lynch into the claims. We have claimed mason partner onegu on LS, with confirmed towny BM. We also have Tracker Rayn on BM.
Also apart from the claims HF looks really towny himself, he pushed his own ideas early and helped get conversation started without stone walling anything. He pushed a lynch onto a towny he did but town is more than likely to be wrong than right especially early on.
Vivax a part from the claim actually looks better after a glance at his filter, he tried really hard and his reads that he gave at the end especially towards little things like Art and myself actually had really good insightful things in them. He acted the part of town dying really well if hes scum and I don't think he can do it that well as scum i'm pretty sold of Vivax being town in this situation. His early filter screamed scum to me early but after that point he just looks really towny especially after the claim.
Toads actions around the claim look decently towny to me at this point. Some of his thought process is jumbeled but I don't see the point of a mafia CC there just to go 1-1 especially if its a real scum vigi at this juncture. Its dumb to give up your shot in that sense for a shot at lynching the town vigilante. It just doesn't make logical sense to me to do that.
I colored myself green since i'm confirmed to myself at least
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Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes,
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
My next stop is on the Eden and FecalFeast train. These two are probably my top two towns at this point in time, some of it is gut feelings but most of it is based on the play in the game up to this point.
FecalFeast has played extremely aggressive up to this point. He has questioned people pretty doggedly and pushed his own ideas forward. He cased LS earlier in the game and it wasn't a bad case I think hes put in the most work in trying to figure out peoples alignments and figure out motivations through his postings. hes really towny and has a filter that shows that hes trying to solve the game.
Eden has shown an interesting amount of play this game. Eden has been involved in almost everything that has been going on in the thread besides a few quick breaks and catching up. Also has shown to re-evaluate the game as the game has went along and has obviously been paying close attention and showing the thread his thought process. The questions that he asks and the pressure that he tries to apply to people look towny to me and the anger (which he is obviously trying to stop) looks like it is coming from town Eden. I am really sure that this is Eden also at times you can see a real lack of knowing what to do that I can see coming from town Eden, while at the same time pushing his own thoughts and feelings in the thread to try to get things done.
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Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes,
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
Now we come to the hard portion of the reads, I have Rsoultin, Breshke as town.
Rsoultins filter was absolutely HORRIBLE to get through at this point (really shame on you rs for derailing the thread at point for hideous things to talk about *finger wagging*). But besides the derailing you can see how Rsoultin is going through the thread and trying to get people to post there thoughts to get more information from it, it feels more relaxed than any scum game I have currently seen Rsoultin play While it lacks a lot of amazing things to be frank it does have a clear consistant thread going through it that you can follow on who she scum reads and why.
Breshke I started off as scum reading because of lack of activity at points and a real lack of effort pushing the game forward. However Breshke re-entered the thread after that and seamlessly changed my mind, he was involved in things he posted his own thoughts and pushed the thread forward. At points he challenged sl on the read and seemed to want to evaluate people based on what they were saying. The scum game that Breshke normally plays with is horrible, and I just don't think I can see Bresh as scum at this point in time.
They are both solid town at this point.
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Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
Slam is probably scum in this situation sadly. My earlier read on slam was that he was trying to take the game more serious and that his attack on HF was indicative of a town slam trying to be different. This is true that slam can be serious and still be town, HOWEVER there was another tell that I use to distinguish between town slam and scum slam that I didn't want to reveal till I got to see more of what he does. Lazy slam+Serious slam=scum slam. Anytime slam is serious and active in the thread and doing things such as attacking HF or digging at people hes more likely town but as the game went along he fell off the face of the world and only showed up to complain about the thread and still did little to nothing to help the game progress only complaining that we lynched BM at this juncture. I think he has a good shot to be scum.
The other solo voter at this point was VE. I think VE is actually town here. His vote when looked at without the strikes isn't actualy in context. He was trying to get what he thought was the scum vigilante killed and had to leave before deadline and the BM wagon taking off. Aside from that he has been decently proactive when he has been here and I do not get the scum sense from him reading his filter, his anger at BM getting lynched instead of one of the Vig seems genuine and he seems to actually be putting forward a real effort at this juncture. I think hes a good towny at this point after reading
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Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
LS is scum I think....This makes me sad writing this. He just seems so lazy and its really hard to see where hes at or where hes going with his reads at this juncture. He just feels forced and he just doesn't seem to be digging or doing homework on his meta...
Palmar is town I think. His antics EoD were a little difficult to keep up with but he just seemed to not want to lynch Vivax and would of rathered lynch his scum read in Toad. Some of his early game stuff was a bit meh like his interaction with toad. But he has said some really towny things to me, his slight pressure on me during the course of the game was good I thought.
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Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
I am probably going to regret this but i'm going to mark SL in as a towny at this point. His wanting to take vivax hostage to get me lynched to a point felt towny, he wanted his person lynched no matter what. His work after lynch when he was here was pretty godo and the questions and observations he made while catching up I felt came from a towny perspective. I have a good feeling that Sl is town at this juncture.
Exo is a very likely scum in this situation. His actions after eod do not exactly make sense to me coming from a logical place. He just seems so angry that we left both claimed vigilantes alive when its just so much better to get the extra information. He seems to be unable to scum hunt currently because of this and is just harping on how bad everyone is instead of pointing out legitimate things that we need to focus on. As such if you look at his early game he had to be pressured to an extent to make any type of conclusion when it had been talked about before. His pressure on Eden looked kind of bad to me, he lacked follow up also on questions that were answered to him and he just let fall to the way side. He probably is the most likely mafia out of anyone at this juncture
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This leaves me in a world where I have two mafia or one depending on setup between Superbia, Trfel and Artanis.
I am the most sure that Superbia is the scum in this group. His actions near eod are really interesting for instance he talks to Palmar at points like he is confirmed town to him. He keeps asking Palmar where his vote is going at one point and wants to follow him and complains when Palmar is wanting to switch back to toad. Really weird inconsistencies in the early play that myself and Eden pointed out (mostly Eden to give credit), Vivax also pointed out some really good things earlier. Really lackluster in scum hunting and backs off most things when confronted ie against Eden.
Bill Murray (8): Holyflare, Eden1892, rsoultin, Superbia, Vivax, Breshke, raynpelikoneet, Palmar
Vivax (7): Artanis[Xp], LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern, Trfel, ExO_, Damdred
LightningStrike (3): Bill Murray,FecalFeast, Onegu
Toadesstern (1): VisceraEyes
sicklucker (1): Alakaslam
Artanis had some rally interesting bad things in his filter in retrospect. Just sheeping onto my case when I posted it is a real head scratcher. Maybe it comes from being so sure and playing with Vivax so much and his filter is really big at the same time so i'm really torn and not sure what to make of Artanis. He did have some good interactions with myself (but he dropped the scum read really fast even though I had little follow up) and he had an ok interaction with VE when they were arguing. I'm still leaning town on Art currently but things bother me
Trfel started off really bad in my mind. And the eod was so/so at points it felt like Trfel was just settling on things rather than digging, such as the vote on Vivax. It makes sense to some degree and I might be expecting to much in that regard but I think a total town trfel would look elsewhere and see what he could find. Also his mid game was really good I felt which was what initially changed my mind on him. His early game was pretty bad and lackluster, but his return to the thread after he couldn't sleep and the barrage of thoughts got me to come around on him. His later postings before EoD were not bad as well as you could keep track of his thought process.
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Wagon Formations.
This was probably one of the hardest things I've had to look at.
Vivax wagon came about when I pushed vivax and Art immediately jumped on followed quickly by LS. LS still had me as null at that moment in time I believe as he is usually really antsy about following me after I tricked him in titanic. But instead of questioning or looking for himself to try to see if I had a meta point he instantly sheeped soon as he saw it which makes it seem like he is the scum that initially started the piling up process. The claim by vivax I belive had him leading the lynch 5-3 over rayn. His wagon began to disintergrate at that point until toad counter claimed and people started piling up. This wagon was probably the one mafia most wanted to happen btw as it was so quickly piled on even as vivax started giving his last reads on.
Toads wagon had Vivax, Palmar, Rayn and Ve being the main pushers to get him lynched. This wagon gained little traction as he was the CC and most people generally agreed that mafia would not cc there and go 1-1.
BM was a last minute wagon formed by HF to give us more time to scum hunt and be able to get more information by using the Vig to shoot who we wanted to at that time.. It was a last second wagon with most of the people who wanted to lynch toad swinging over with some hold outs from lynching Rayn. Most of the people who could of hammered vivax were totally against his lynch so they would be unable and I feel like super could not risk taking the negative effects of hammering the vig so had to stay put.
I still need to look on the earlier parts of the day and see how people were voting and what was being pushed.
TLDR:
Scum team:
Slam, LS, Super, Exo
Undecided:
Trfel and Artanis
blah blah blah really wordy much wow. Damdred bored at home.
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EPT
