|
What are the chances of Palmer picking me as his target of choice if he were to be mafia VE?
What Palmar has done so far is:
1) have a fun time and not caring a lot (town-ish)
2) ask a bunch of oneline questions inbetween that might seem like they do something but havn't actually ever ended up producing anything (mafia-ish)
3) And finally he did that one big post about me
I was waiting for Palmars first big thing and see what it would be. The fact that it's about me and I know it to be bullshit makes things a bit difficult to judge here... I mean I understand the misunderstanding, at the same time Eden picked the exact same thing up, I explained it to him and it's apparently bad phrasing from me if that's how those two read it
I just don't think I'd be the guy he'd go after if he's mafia. He'd have an easier time going after one of Onegu, GB and Lian given that most people, including myself want them somewhat dead and at least one of them has to be town.
|
On January 28 2015 04:00 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 03:53 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 28 2015 03:11 GlowingBear wrote:On January 28 2015 02:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
GB my reasoning is simple. Your "mind dump" posts looked very much like trying to appear contributory to me. This is exacerbated by the fact that once called out on them you simply stopped doing them. Earlier on in the game your posting had a theme of "BRB guys, I'm reading but I'll BRB I'm doing something else BRB" and since you've returned you've seemed really defensive. You consider risking voting for myself to be defensive? To say that my mind notes posts are forced contribution, I want you to tell me if my reads are fluff. If they aren't fluff, they are actual contribution, so half of your reasons were debunked. ##Vote: GlowingBearI don't have to tell you shit. I don't care if you THINK you've debunked my reasons. Please, tell me again how voting for yourself makes you town. Get lynched, GB. Please unvote I know you really want this lynch, and we can have it later if you want. But we have 1d4h left. Don't throw it away
wait do we have 1d 4 hour left or just 4 hours?
##unvote
|
We actually have an entire day and 4 hours left. Since when are 72hour days a thing.
|
also mafia would have hammered that if we had 28hours left and we were at 4 votes. GB mafia, gg
|
On January 28 2015 04:04 Toadesstern wrote:
also mafia would have hammered that if we had 28hours left and we were at 4 votes. GB mafia, gg
there's absolutely no way mafia doesn't hammer this if GB is town, plenty of people think GB is mafia, they get away with robbing us of 28 hours as long as not both mafias already voted GB
|
On January 28 2015 04:05 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:04 Toadesstern wrote:
also mafia would have hammered that if we had 28hours left and we were at 4 votes. GB mafia, gg bingo, unless both mafia were already on gb
do you think there's 2 mafias between: Half the Sky, IAmRobik, VisceraEyes, Toadesstern ?
Not even Palmar would agree with that because he thinks it's GB + me, which might be some kind of an exception as well because GB might not vote for himself. Then again, he already showed that he does and it would get him -28 hours for town... I think he'd take that as mafia in his spot.
|
On January 28 2015 04:06 Eden1892 wrote:
I have to admit that it's weird that GB would self-vote and retract if he's mafia. You don't self-vote as mafia unless you're planning to have your partner hammer it away to cut off discussion.
I was kind of panicing getting in thread thinking there were 3 or 4 votes on me with Palmar posting all DETERMINED and shit.
Maybe he thought there actually was a chance for me to dig my own grave in panic trying to get information out which would safe him?
It is weird though.
|
On January 28 2015 04:13 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:08 Toadesstern wrote:On January 28 2015 04:05 Eden1892 wrote:On January 28 2015 04:04 Toadesstern wrote:
also mafia would have hammered that if we had 28hours left and we were at 4 votes. GB mafia, gg bingo, unless both mafia were already on gb do you think there's 2 mafias between: Half the Sky, IAmRobik, VisceraEyes, Toadesstern ? Not even Palmar would agree with that because he thinks it's GB + me, which might be some kind of an exception as well because GB might not vote for himself. Then again, he already showed that he does and it would get him -28 hours for town... I think he'd take that as mafia in his spot. It's not impossible. HTS is the only person on that list I would say absolutely isn't mafia. Robik is very probably town, but it's worthy to note that a lot of his getting townread is that he's said the "right" things about a player (GlowingBear) popularly perceived as mafia, and so if GB is town (which the 2-mafia-on-GB theory necessarily implies), that has to be reevaluated. And I'm still uneasy about you and concerned about VE. So I'm still considering that possibility, yeah. Alternatively, GB could be mafia and his partner could have already tried to bus before the self-vote.There's nothing that anyone can say right now that can move any of those possibilities out of the realm of statistically significant chance, so I want time to evaluate all of them.
that's what I'm saying. It doesn't even matter if the 2nd mafia is already on him. If GB is mafia there's a legit reason to think about it from a mafias PoV. No matter if the 2nd mafia is already on him or not, the decision to bus him is one to make and might take some consideration.
On the other hand the decision to kill off GB if he's town, assuming there aren't 2 mafias already on him, is fairly straight forward.
Granted I have an advantage here in knowing at least my alignment and agreeing with you on HTS, while Robik continues to be back at null if my earlier posts about him were a misunderstanding on my part and VE is still slightly townish in my book.
|
On January 28 2015 04:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Well, no, strike that. If the panicking didn't come until after GB retracted self-vote, it doesn't hold.
Question stands though.
a quick walkthrough for what happened from my PoV:
1) I get back
2) I see a couple pages I have to catch up... I think something like 3
3) I quickly go through them looking for the names
4) I see Palmar making a big post and am like "wow nice I want to see if he finally started playing"
5) I realize he wants me lynched, I check for votes after his big post and thought I saw multiple ones on me (could have been Palmar going forth and back idk)
6) I filter Artanis, check if there was a post from him
7) no post, I'm allowed to post
8) I am allowed to post and do so without reading the rest to at least get my thoughts out fast
Both Robik and Palmar realized pretty quickly that I didn't even read the rest of the thread at that point. I'm not even sure I realized the self-vote nore the retraction of it.
|
On January 28 2015 04:27 Eden1892 wrote:
bruh.
i'm not even talkin about you LMAO
I was trying to figure out a reason why mafia!GB would get cold feet about martyring, and the only thing I thought of is that he might have seen you flipping your shit about getting lynched and tried to get on that ice instead
But it doesn't matter b/c you flipped out after GB unmartyred so
given his situation it could have been a desperate stunt. People want him dead the most so might as well try that.
On the other hand... what about timezones? How likely is it that while town!GB was on 4 votes, assuming at least 1 mafia still left to vote him, just wasn't online?
On January 28 2015 04:32 Half the Sky wrote:
Also does Palmar typically policy vote D1? That's another thing I forgot to consider.
I'd say no. Could have changed in the last year
|
On January 28 2015 04:44 GlowingBear wrote:
If you believe mafia would have hammered me you have to think that toad is mafia The only thing that prevents me to vote toad is that palmar is scum reading him
I was the one that just unvoted you once I was told that there's 72 hour cycles and not 48 hour cycles like it used to be one year ago...
|
On January 28 2015 04:47 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:44 GlowingBear wrote:
If you believe mafia would have hammered me you have to think that toad is mafia The only thing that prevents me to vote toad is that palmar is scum reading him Toad was not in thread at the time. I already looked into that. It was Robik, me, Onegu, Palmar, and both Robik and I had votes on you already.
while that might be true you can't really use that for mafia. Chances are that two people are online reading in here while not posting while reading all the time because they're mafia. So chances are you don't know who really was available if push comes to shove
|
On January 28 2015 04:55 GlowingBear wrote:
Yeah but when it came back to the thread he instantly voted me reach makes no sense Because he cared down read on me and He admitted to me voted me for survival
chances are if it's between: *get myself lynched* and *get someone else lynched* I'll take the second one no questions asked and I was in a panic at that time. In fact the only situation in which that thought doesn't make sense is if I'm mafia together with you and mafia!me thinks that killing me would be more beneficial to us than killing mafia!you (hint: I wouldn't ever think that)
|
On January 28 2015 05:11 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:41 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm driving
Eden, I have voted myself as a e part of a play.
You can see that Paulmark asked me if I wanted to say something else and I said That he should think about the vote which means It was part of a plan. THIS IS A FUCKING LIE
I believe it. The play was
"I have no idea what to do anymore... - how about you vote yourself and see what happens, not like you got something to lose here. If you get lynched without doing it we're down to just me anways - fiiiiine"
|
On January 28 2015 06:03 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:53 Palmar wrote:
I don't care which but please stop playing in the best interest of town
thank you You have a scumread on Toad, presumably. Why are/were you voting a policy read over a scum read? Why aren't you pushing Toad to everyone else who was in here?
add to that that when talking to me he's talking in absolutes. When talking to GB he is more lenient (expectedly):On January 28 2015 04:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:44 GlowingBear wrote:
If you believe mafia would have hammered me you have to think that toad is mafia The only thing that prevents me to vote toad is that palmar is scum reading him you're scum or seriously bad.I don't care which but please stop playing in the best interest of town thank you
If he considers that a thing and is more lenient about GB because he thinks GB should not be hold to a high standard that should only make it more likely for Palmar to distance himself from a GB vote, at least in comparison to me.
|
so here's the thing. I got back from Uni and am out playing D&D with friends in 10 minutes. Won't be back until 24:00 my time. That being said, if I die before that happens:
On January 28 2015 10:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 10:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
Ehhhhh...I think I like this the most.
##Unvote
##Vote: liancourt
Palmar feel free to elaborate on your Toad read whenever you get the chance. If I agree with it I might reconsider - I'm historically bad at reading Toad, so meh. He's mafia. You can lynch me if he isn't.
He still hasn't really explained his read at all other than "toad waffles on GB" which I do every game no matter of alignment and he knows that. We've played mafia together for... 3 years?
Eden's questions about me are too long for me to go through when I have to leave right now but it makes somewhat sense from his PoV if he doesn't know me, even if you could answer every single question in there if you had looked at my previous games (like the fact that I HAAATE talking about townreads and explaining them with a passion to answer one of the questions) and at least he's explaining it. So don't take that as a bad thing.
HTS I still feel comfortable in being town
VE I'm not as sure about anymore. It could be he's mafia defending me to get towncred after I flip but that could just be me paranoid. If I try to forget that I'd still say more on the townish side
Robik is prolly somewhat townish
GB is back to null for me. I still feel like mafia would have hammered that if he was town but could be that noone was around.
Onegu I felt better about lately. Wouldn't be my #1 priority anymore. Probably behind a lian lynch and Palmar (spite-) lynch (Palmar could totally be Mafia though, like I said he knows me for 3 years. He's way better than what he's showing here)
liancourt seems to be the guy to go for imo
with that being said I put my vote on lian for now and most likely for today even if I come back and day isn't over yet
##vote liancourt
And wow, this is actually the first time I ever get lynched as town (in 3 years?) without ragequitting or being modkilled for making a mistake. Good job Palmar
|
On January 29 2015 01:34 VisceraEyes wrote:
To set the record straight, I'm pretty sure I haven't defended you anywhere Toad. Simply asked Palmar to further elaborate on his read of you. I'm very close to voting for you myself, because I'm not used to you playing a game without screaming about how X or Y is mafia...regardless of your alignment.
I used to play nonstop. The rage of having to deal with people didn't disappear 100% by the end of every game, so that stacked up.
That's what you get after not playing for a year and thus being 100% ragefree!
That being said I'm gone now. I'd be willing to vote for Lian/GB mostly if I'm still alive when being back. If it's between me and someone else I'll vote whatever you want me to vote though 
|
friends PC, something that I thought about on my way, Palmar as third party:
On February 23 2012 19:00 Palmar wrote:But it's so hard to blue-hunt... So I decided to shoot some scum night 1, could even hit hugo and then try to look like I'm not batman. I shot radfield, but of course he was talia.Toad being the joker didn't click until about the time I posted thisThe reason for all the trolling and spamming is that I wanted to make the thread as useless for scumhunting as possible. The reason being that my theory was that if I made actually playing mafia impossible, the town would turn to their blue roles for support, thus allowing me to better identify them. I think it kinda worked, we got a load of claims early in the game and they helped me tremendously. I mean... figuring out the exact identity of one person out of 30-ish on day 2 is not something that normally happens, but given the chaotic thread it was much easier.
He has long left the realm of having fun and being a little trollish. He's doing it on purpose and he has done it on purpose in the past as well.
His reasoning on me is still nothing but: Toad waffles + there's something else but I forgot what it is.
Sorry I'm d&d'ing. Can't really read but I can ask to quickly use his PC to make a post inbetween because I knew where to find that quote :3
For answering the questions I'll actually need time to back stuff up from old games from me and won't be able to do that before getting back.
|
On January 29 2015 02:47 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2015 02:45 Toadesstern wrote:
friends PC, something that I thought about on my way, Palmar as third party: I hope you are joking. This is a pure vanilla game. Why in the actual hell are you or anyone suggesting third party play? I'm leaving the office, and headed for a dinner date. I'll be back.
I'm not saying he's third party. I'm saying he was third party in that game and employed the tactic to troll, more so than ever, to make the thread as unreadable as possible and he's doing the same this game as mafia because he's usually not this useless
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
