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@eden
Didn't I say I was co mod for imperial and you played a great d1 in that game. IMO you aren't playing like that in this game. I'm comparing your town to this game. And you aren't playing like town.
In new years where u were scum the game state was much different and the thread itself was stale most of the time. Comparing filter sizes seems irrelevant. The game state currently is much more active in this game thus naturally has more posts. I don't think the argument of comparing filter sizes is valid in your defense.
I welcome the change in perspective eden. Why do you think onegu is scum? I think he's scum because he just sheeped you after coming into the thread. He doesn't really have any original reads. He posted a list post of well townies and nulls. I have no idea on his meta so if someone can enlighten me that'd be great.
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On January 27 2015 14:17 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 12:57 Onegu wrote:On January 27 2015 12:53 liancourt wrote:On January 27 2015 04:13 Half the Sky wrote:On January 27 2015 04:11 Toadesstern wrote:
Is he usually the kind of guy that locks on his target and just goes at it? Yes. Liancourt's town play in Carol (he was the veteran in that game) was a PERFECT example of this. He was criticised for not being convincing, he pissed away 4 cycles yelling at people his reads, particularly to lynch Holyflare but people ignored him. He was right but failed to be convincing. very accurate representation except i wasnt vet i only breadcrumbed vet so that they wouldnt shoot me. Well I'm not afking this game and just leaving my vote on eden. I intend to convinve town he's scum unless there are better cases that can sway me, but atm I don't see any except maybe a policy lynch on palmar, but he said he's posting a read so I'll wait for that. Jeezus this is the scummiest post in the thread. Then convince me, and why wait. Palmar needs to play or ded. Here you go lian my scum read on you. First was just a pressure vote, but now here is my reason
care to enlighten town why this post is scummy?
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On January 27 2015 13:22 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 13:17 liancourt wrote:On January 27 2015 04:22 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 04:15 Eden1892 wrote:On January 27 2015 04:11 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 04:05 Eden1892 wrote:On January 26 2015 13:04 Eden1892 wrote:
Coming-down-Magic was fun but not for why you'd think it would be.
Anyway I am back and I ?hope? of sound mind and judgment.
I feel like my liancourt read was still pretty coherent. Maybe not in execu-- no, definitely not in execution, but at least in the logic. Let me try to explain it with a little more clarity of mind.
My play style was different from both games he's seen from me, and I was mafia in one and town in the other. At the very least he's obscuring the truth by citing Imperial as the inspiration for his read without making any mention of the fact that my play is different from the time he saw me play mafiasided. I feel like a townie would make mention of this and try to give the other player a fair shake instead of simply going "different from this town game therefore mafia!" while ignoring the equally-important "different from this mafia game therefore ???"
I also kinda felt like it was a cheap shot trying this kind of obscurantist read while I wasn't quite at full mental capacity, but to be fair it's not his fault that I decided to try new alcohol right before he gave his reads. Idk maybe it's unfair to hold that to him, but I felt like it was more sinister than a misunderstanding or error. I agree in that liancourt feels like he is picking his target and once he has picked that he's writing something about them (because he has to) rather than going with the flow. It should be the other way around, you find something weird and you talk about it no matter who it is, especially early on into d1. Is he usually the kind of guy that locks on his target and just goes at it? hts says so, i've only played one game with him where he was town and i was mafia, and he locked onto me. but idk if he just does it in general or was zeroed in on me because i was obvious LOL my issue is less that he's zeroed in on me and refusing to budge or explain himself, because townies and mafia both tunnel on targets all the time. my issue is the reasoning he's using, which i feel like doesn't come from the position of someone who doesn't have the truth and is trying to figure it out, but instead from the position of someone who does have the truth and is trying to obscure it from the others though if he's tunneling he has confirmation bias by definition. If that's what he's doing it's likely he might ignore the parts you're blaming him for simply because he's certain you're mafia and looking at it only one way: Try to point out things that don't fit with your townmeta because you're mafia anyways Both what you said and what I said come down to the same thing I feel. It could very well be malicious just the way I think locking on to just one target could be something malicious because that way he doesn't have to make up stuff about a lot of people and can just focus on one guy. But if he does tunnel a lot that's a moot point. i actually looked up what confirmation bias was I loled. i do admit i have confirmation bias. In carol i had this, i ignored everything HF said because he was clearly obvious scum and anything he says will try to sway me otherwise. It's also the reason why I'm ignoring his posts right now, even more so because he is OMGUSing me. I'm calling him scum, he's calling me scum. I won't agree to him calling me scum, and he certainly won't agree with me calling him scum. It's like that time in voice mafia when everyone rolled scum and the 4 ppl were trying to convince each other that the other pair was scum and what not...it was like watching a brick wall talking to a brick wall. On December 20 2014 10:05 liancourt wrote:
U know why ppl arent lynching hf? Because they are reading his posts and not ignoring the content.
All of hfs posts whether scum or town are all superb. They are alwsys pro town in both alignments.
The thing u have to realize is hf busses nearly everytime. And when he s town he generally gets scum most of the time.
The only scum tell he prolly has is how he reacts to certain posts. If his reaction is genuine fake calm angry etc. Town hf is more angry more frustrated. Scum hf is calm then tries to be angry on purpose and fakes reactions. Ppls pov will differ on whether hfs reactions are fake or not but imo hf has been faking a lot this game. Just like the vote deadline faking anger. He can be angry in both alignments yes but it looked so fake to me. U guys cant put a case on hf for content cos he busses teammates. His content will alwsys be good. U have to read him as how me and slam read him. Slam knows hf so well. I still believe slam is town but dont know why u didnt vote hf when u did last time....slam??? Why????
At gb i m from asia On December 20 2014 10:13 liancourt wrote:
Gb what is wrong with u???? Are u reading his posts? Stop reading hfs posts. And think for yourself.
Why its korean standard time. Because i m in korea. Ok yeah I'm happy to kill this guy with fire now... Why the hell are you talking about that?!
well you clearly read this post where I'm explaining why I'm ignoring eden and yet you post this
On January 27 2015 14:23 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:20 Eden1892 wrote:
townies do stupid shit and say nothing useful in their posts all the time He just came in. Had your obnoxious post that you quoted 20 times. Had posts from hts and a vote from me. And he comes in and is like yup you scum and I'm never going to listen to you. When have you ever seen town do that.
I was town in carol and i did this to scum hf, but now I think you're even more scum than he is.
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On January 27 2015 14:26 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:23 liancourt wrote:
@eden
Didn't I say I was co mod for imperial and you played a great d1 in that game. IMO you aren't playing like that in this game. I'm comparing your town to this game. And you aren't playing like town.
In new years where u were scum the game state was much different and the thread itself was stale most of the time. Comparing filter sizes seems irrelevant. The game state currently is much more active in this game thus naturally has more posts. I don't think the argument of comparing filter sizes is valid in your defense.
I welcome the change in perspective eden. Why do you think onegu is scum? I think he's scum because he just sheeped you after coming into the thread. He doesn't really have any original reads. He posted a list post of well townies and nulls. I have no idea on his meta so if someone can enlighten me that'd be great. Lol,when did I sheep him. and once you get called out for your confirmation bias post you are now willing to listen to Eden lol...
I'm willing to listen to him because you are more scummy than he is right now and he took off his tunnel vision glasses off. And I sensed genuine anger from eden when i ignored his posts. I've seen mafia fake anger but it kinda felt genuine to me so I'll take a step back and look at you.
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On January 27 2015 14:30 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:25 liancourt wrote:On January 27 2015 14:17 Onegu wrote:On January 27 2015 12:57 Onegu wrote:On January 27 2015 12:53 liancourt wrote:On January 27 2015 04:13 Half the Sky wrote:On January 27 2015 04:11 Toadesstern wrote:
Is he usually the kind of guy that locks on his target and just goes at it? Yes. Liancourt's town play in Carol (he was the veteran in that game) was a PERFECT example of this. He was criticised for not being convincing, he pissed away 4 cycles yelling at people his reads, particularly to lynch Holyflare but people ignored him. He was right but failed to be convincing. very accurate representation except i wasnt vet i only breadcrumbed vet so that they wouldnt shoot me. Well I'm not afking this game and just leaving my vote on eden. I intend to convinve town he's scum unless there are better cases that can sway me, but atm I don't see any except maybe a policy lynch on palmar, but he said he's posting a read so I'll wait for that. Jeezus this is the scummiest post in the thread. Then convince me, and why wait. Palmar needs to play or ded. Here you go lian my scum read on you. First was just a pressure vote, but now here is my reason care to enlighten town why this post is scummy? Sure because you come in here check random things post something that has no revalance and basicly omgus Eden with no back up, but then want a policy lynch. You then follow up this post with another post that is completely irrelevant, and no bearing on this game. Then I call you out on it and you switch your tune.
If you check FFL and FFL 2 I did this stuff. Nothing new. GB and robik will know this.
A policy lynch is a backup lynch really. And i've said in my previous post that my lynchpool was eden > palmar.
It's now onegu > eden > palmar
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On January 27 2015 14:34 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:23 liancourt wrote:
@eden
Didn't I say I was co mod for imperial and you played a great d1 in that game. IMO you aren't playing like that in this game. I'm comparing your town to this game. And you aren't playing like town.
In new years where u were scum the game state was much different and the thread itself was stale most of the time. Comparing filter sizes seems irrelevant. The game state currently is much more active in this game thus naturally has more posts. I don't think the argument of comparing filter sizes is valid in your defense.
I welcome the change in perspective eden. Why do you think onegu is scum? I think he's scum because he just sheeped you after coming into the thread. He doesn't really have any original reads. He posted a list post of well townies and nulls. I have no idea on his meta so if someone can enlighten me that'd be great. my d1 was trash my n1 was ok why don't you actually read my posts and stop tunneling like a donkey? you are playing so antitown right now by continuing to antagonize me for no reason
##unvote
I'm not antagonizing you I'm saying give me reasons on why you think onegu is scum.
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On January 27 2015 14:45 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:43 liancourt wrote:On January 27 2015 14:34 Eden1892 wrote:On January 27 2015 14:23 liancourt wrote:
@eden
Didn't I say I was co mod for imperial and you played a great d1 in that game. IMO you aren't playing like that in this game. I'm comparing your town to this game. And you aren't playing like town.
In new years where u were scum the game state was much different and the thread itself was stale most of the time. Comparing filter sizes seems irrelevant. The game state currently is much more active in this game thus naturally has more posts. I don't think the argument of comparing filter sizes is valid in your defense.
I welcome the change in perspective eden. Why do you think onegu is scum? I think he's scum because he just sheeped you after coming into the thread. He doesn't really have any original reads. He posted a list post of well townies and nulls. I have no idea on his meta so if someone can enlighten me that'd be great. my d1 was trash my n1 was ok why don't you actually read my posts and stop tunneling like a donkey? you are playing so antitown right now by continuing to antagonize me for no reason ##unvoteI'm not antagonizing you I'm saying give me reasons on why you think onegu is scum. i gave the summary. you'd get more concrete reasons if you didn't piss me off to the point where i can't think clearly by intentionally ignoring me and don't even pretend you weren't antagonizing me, you outright said you were ignoring my attempts to work with you
when did you say you were trying to work with me? You were posting reasons on why I was scum all the time.
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On January 27 2015 14:54 Eden1892 wrote:
this is what's so infuriating. you have an alleged scum read on me due to "meta," but it's obvious from your posts that you aren't even looking at the game YOU HOSTED where i was town. you never considered it when you gave your "meta" read on me, your reaction to my attempts to question you was exactly the wrong response that anyone should take away from my play in that town game.
just what are you doing??
like what are you trying to do with this post? Calling me scum? Defending yourself?
I'm scum hunting. I thought we were going to discuss onegu. Why are you still on this?
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It's funny I'm liking eden more and more as he vents because it seems generally townie and genuine anger.
onegu > palmar > eden
and like hts said I wouldn't consider toad to be a d1 lynch, but it's funny I don't have a real read on him so far. With the likes of HF or marv I'd prolly town read them straight off the bat, but I don't get those vibes from toad as of yet.
I would really like VE to comment on eden and onegu so I can read him.
##vote onegu
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On January 27 2015 15:54 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 14:57 Half the Sky wrote:Sanity please. Good morning. Took about 10m to skim through. Will post my initial impressions before I jet for work. I'll look a little harder into Liancourt's posting, but I have some thoughts and some criticisms. This post from Lian is making me reconsider a scum read on him. Here's why: On January 27 2015 13:51 liancourt wrote:
@toad
I know you're trying to be the thread mayor and all, but I really expected HF/marv/koshi level play from you, but I'm somewhat disappointed...maybe I had high expectations of you or maybe you're holding back for some reason. It's like you're playing politics and moderating everything instead of pointing fingers and pushing things hard.
How many scumreads does Toad have right now? From what I can tell, zero. This part of Lian's post is making me think that what if a (potential) mafia Toad could cruise on being so widely townread? It doesn't look likely at this point, but the fact that it made me think, and it shows that Lian has made some broad observation of a player relative to the entire game, despite Toad himself only having a three page filter. I took a look at Toad's filter, and he seems to be in that information gathering/analysing phase of scumhunting, but if I don't see him pushing something/someone soon, I might just start to wonder. His first vote was on Liancourt on what I believed to be a pressure vote and then he unvoted. Don't get me wrong, I'm still reading Toad as town, but this was a very provocative post by Lian and makes me think he's town for this observation. At the very least, I might actually move him upwards from my scumpile. I'm one of the guys that figures out who's town and lynches into whoever is left, starting with the guy my stomach likes the least as I'm usually incredibly confident in my townreads. You're probably not going to see me make long cases about people being mafia. That mostly goes out to you and lian who said he expected me to be someone like Marv/HF... I even told you that I'm the kind of guy that just looks cute and everyone wants to cuddle :3 That being said, a walkthrough of my thoughts lately would be: We lynch into Eden / Lian / Onegu, preferably Lian or Onegu at the point of when I made my general list. Robik if we havn't won by then. Right now I'm fairly confident that I don't want to touch Eden at all, he has been quite impressive the last 24~30 hours or so and like I already said I agree with that one point on GB you did, so he dropped in my list. So for right now it's between Onegu and Lian, leaning towards Onegu. GB for me is an option I'd be willing to discuss but that to me has the same value as a policy lynch because a potential mislynch on GB would be a disaster. Meaning if that guy ends up town we had the easiest votedump for mafia ever for d1. Onegu has that under-the-radar but not just completly afk feel to him I don't like. Lian I have to reread some because people apparently think he got super towny in the last couple hours? I'd also like to add Palmar to the list because he still hasn't done shit at all but let's be honest here, he knows me good enough to know that I'd only be pressuring and asking people to give him one more day if push comes to shove. I've seen him behave exactly like this as town multiple times (I think? at least once), which doesn't make him town but I'd try to avoid that lynch d1.
i really dont like this post. You say your playstyle is POE, but I can't remember you calling someone town coherently. You say someone is this and that for some reason and just analyze that but never really make any concrete conclusion on anything. You seem to want to please everyone and get on in their good books. That's a very mafia based playing style, I'd actually be ok with you playing like this if i got town vibes from all the great insightful town reads or the inquisiting questions that scum hunt, but I'm not getting any of those. You're very null and this is odd because apparently you're meant to be a good player. Too much high hopes? Or are you scum?
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On January 27 2015 23:41 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 18:22 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 18:03 Palmar wrote:
Eden is town
So this leaves:
GB
lian
Toad
Onegu
But then again I'm bad and idk.
The best argument against GB is that he attempted to create a framework for his thought process and didn't really follow it through. It is very tempting to create a framework for yourself when you're mafia "I am only going to read 2 people today", "I am going to do list posts and update them", because it makes posting easier, you just follow whichever formula you have supplied and no one suspects a thing! simple, right?
I can't remember why I think Toad is maybe mafia. But he really could be. The other two I haven't read that much. if you take out my name from that list those other three have been the ones I want to lynch every since the last... 24 hours? ... what does that tell us about what you should be thinking about me? This post is complete horseshit Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 15:54 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 14:57 Half the Sky wrote:Sanity please. Good morning. Took about 10m to skim through. Will post my initial impressions before I jet for work. I'll look a little harder into Liancourt's posting, but I have some thoughts and some criticisms. This post from Lian is making me reconsider a scum read on him. Here's why: On January 27 2015 13:51 liancourt wrote:
@toad
I know you're trying to be the thread mayor and all, but I really expected HF/marv/koshi level play from you, but I'm somewhat disappointed...maybe I had high expectations of you or maybe you're holding back for some reason. It's like you're playing politics and moderating everything instead of pointing fingers and pushing things hard.
How many scumreads does Toad have right now? From what I can tell, zero. This part of Lian's post is making me think that what if a (potential) mafia Toad could cruise on being so widely townread? It doesn't look likely at this point, but the fact that it made me think, and it shows that Lian has made some broad observation of a player relative to the entire game, despite Toad himself only having a three page filter. I took a look at Toad's filter, and he seems to be in that information gathering/analysing phase of scumhunting, but if I don't see him pushing something/someone soon, I might just start to wonder. His first vote was on Liancourt on what I believed to be a pressure vote and then he unvoted. Don't get me wrong, I'm still reading Toad as town, but this was a very provocative post by Lian and makes me think he's town for this observation. At the very least, I might actually move him upwards from my scumpile. I'm one of the guys that figures out who's town and lynches into whoever is left, starting with the guy my stomach likes the least as I'm usually incredibly confident in my townreads. You're probably not going to see me make long cases about people being mafia. That mostly goes out to you and lian who said he expected me to be someone like Marv/HF... I even told you that I'm the kind of guy that just looks cute and everyone wants to cuddle :3 That being said, a walkthrough of my thoughts lately would be: We lynch into Eden / Lian / Onegu, preferably Lian or Onegu at the point of when I made my general list. Robik if we havn't won by then. Right now I'm fairly confident that I don't want to touch Eden at all, he has been quite impressive the last 24~30 hours or so and like I already said I agree with that one point on GB you did, so he dropped in my list. So for right now it's between Onegu and Lian, leaning towards Onegu. GB for me is an option I'd be willing to discuss but that to me has the same value as a policy lynch because a potential mislynch on GB would be a disaster. Meaning if that guy ends up town we had the easiest votedump for mafia ever for d1. Onegu has that under-the-radar but not just completly afk feel to him I don't like. Lian I have to reread some because people apparently think he got super towny in the last couple hours? I'd also like to add Palmar to the list because he still hasn't done shit at all but let's be honest here, he knows me good enough to know that I'd only be pressuring and asking people to give him one more day if push comes to shove. I've seen him behave exactly like this as town multiple times (I think? at least once), which doesn't make him town but I'd try to avoid that lynch d1. Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 08:19 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 08:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 07:51 Half the Sky wrote:
EBWOP - what also struck me was people in this thread townreading GB simply because he seemed to be putting in the effort for his notetaking posts. I'm mostly still townreading him for the vote on me that had a townish confidence to it to not give a fuck About your case. I actually quite like it and am considering GB a null at best right now... I don't care so much about your first point about him and your last point, but the second one about Onegu just commenting on the vote without trying to figure anything out when indeed he was confused and asked about wether it's a troll / mayor / lynch vote at just that time. That could very well be painting someone red rather than trying to read someone. the more I think about that one point, the more I like it actually. It is clearly showing mafia agenda, more so than any other case done so far, including my own reads that are all based on how people are interacting here because d1 is usually really hard to get some mafia agenda when noone has flipped yet. I'd be voting him if I didn't want to make sure we get more time right now. There's still the lingering fear that he's bad and the easy mislynch but it makes me feel way better about this. Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 08:00 Toadesstern wrote:On January 27 2015 07:51 Half the Sky wrote:
EBWOP - what also struck me was people in this thread townreading GB simply because he seemed to be putting in the effort for his notetaking posts. I'm mostly still townreading him for the vote on me that had a townish confidence to it to not give a fuck About your case. I actually quite like it and am considering GB a null at best right now... I don't care so much about your first point about him and your last point, but the second one about Onegu just commenting on the vote without trying to figure anything out when indeed he was confused and asked about wether it's a troll / mayor / lynch vote at just that time. That could very well be painting someone red rather than trying to read someone. Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 07:15 Toadesstern wrote:
can someone restate the things that make GB mafia that don't boil down to "he's bad"?
I don't care about him being wrong with what he does. I want to see why doing what's wrong is more beneficial for him as mafia than as a townie.
Because I still only see him as the easy mislynch to be honest. In fact I am much more sure on Toad being mafia than GB. But lynching both might be fine. The point here is Toad is waffling so hard on GB that it's almost painful
i really like this post. Consider palmar off the policy lynch table. I guess we dont need d1 policy lynch
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On January 28 2015 02:30 VisceraEyes wrote:
I think Eden and HTS are both super town. I'm LEANING town on liancourt because of how he "responded" to Eden freaking out. I still suspect Palmar of being mafia and I'm still suspecting GB.
Palmar coming in and actually trying to lynch someone moves him out of my lynch preferences for today, so GB is my default as of right now. Unless someone can convince me that Toad is the best lynch, I'm going to look for a better lynch than GB, in case there is one.
i like this post. gb is actually scaring me right now apart from the initial analysis post at the start of the day which i townread off im not seeing an advancement of this reads. I dont know whats he's thinking right now. The town games i ve played with him he actually tried and questioned lots of people and pushed things even they werent right all the time. I'd like to see how gb reads have evolved. I'm dropping him down to null and i read ve town.
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On January 28 2015 03:26 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 02:40 GlowingBear wrote:
I want every person that is scumreading me to tell me what you're doing so.
I can see only one possible trait and that one is being afk.
I have no fucking idea why you want to lynch me. How long is this going to take me to answer? 1 You took Onegu out of context in a misleading way (pages 14 and 19 of thread) 2 You took me out of context in a misleading way, the read on Toad (pages 14) 3 You took me out of context AGAIN saying I was pushing you based on meta when the opposite was true (page 19) 4 You did not interact with me whilst we were in thread together over an action you thought was scumlike from me, instead you waited to make it as a point just so you could make a point in your notes. Furthermore I INTERACTED WITH YOU. (page 14) 5 VE scumreads you for not solving the game and you don't even give him a good response for how you are (page 17) 6 When I call you out for ignoring my posts you say you are coming up to a random page. I MEAN COME ON. I know you are not new to these games (page 36) 7 Then you go and decide you'll claim scum (page 39). Your lack of activity isn't helping but there is more than enough to scumread you.
i like this summary too. GB drops to lean scum
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On January 28 2015 04:02 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 03:53 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 28 2015 03:11 GlowingBear wrote:On January 28 2015 02:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
GB my reasoning is simple. Your "mind dump" posts looked very much like trying to appear contributory to me. This is exacerbated by the fact that once called out on them you simply stopped doing them. Earlier on in the game your posting had a theme of "BRB guys, I'm reading but I'll BRB I'm doing something else BRB" and since you've returned you've seemed really defensive. You consider risking voting for myself to be defensive? To say that my mind notes posts are forced contribution, I want you to tell me if my reads are fluff. If they aren't fluff, they are actual contribution, so half of your reasons were debunked. ##Vote: GlowingBearI don't have to tell you shit. I don't care if you THINK you've debunked my reasons. Please, tell me again how voting for yourself makes you town. Get lynched, GB. YOU CAN'T SAY I'M FAKING CONTRIBUTION IF I'M ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTING, OF COURSE YOU HAVE TO REASON THINGS WTF VOTING FOR MYSELF IS A RISK MAFIA WOULDN'T TAKE IN AN INSTANT MAJORITY LYNCH WTF AND IT SHOWS YOU THAT I'M NOT BEING DEFENSIVE WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU?????
can i see how ur reads have developed? You havent been doing much since the first list post...
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On January 28 2015 04:06 Eden1892 wrote:
I have to admit that it's weird that GB would self-vote and retract if he's mafia. You don't self-vote as mafia unless you're planning to have your partner hammer it away to cut off discussion.
please explain more
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i'm looking at pg 45 and the vote analysis is just...meh it's like total wifom. To bus or not to bus....to hammer town as mafia...having 2 mafia on town pre emptively...it's a really wide specualtion with so many different opinions. Unless someone actually hammers and flips this thing we're doing on pg 45...seems like a good way to make a discussion go in circles.
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On January 28 2015 07:53 Eden1892 wrote:
OK, so back to it. I think GlowingBear is town, because:
(a) His lynch has been way too easy. We could have had him already several times if we'd wanted it, and I think if this weren't IML he would have been lynched by now.
(b) I'm inclined to believe him when he says he had a plan with his self-voting. I don't know what the plan is, and he's gonna have to explain it or get lynched, but pending a reasonable-sounding explanation, I'll believe that he's town.
From there I'm gonna go look at the other players. I'm town and I feel pretty strongly that Half the Sky is as well.
The first player I'm looking at is Onegu, because like I said before, if GlowingBear is town, then Onegu is town as well. I explained this early on p46, feel free to look back and see. Onegu is town.
I have a bad feeling about both Robik and Palmar. Robik has been very loud and animated about lynching GlowingBear, who I believe now to be town, and has done very little - nothing noteworthy enough for me to remember, anyway - outside of talking about killing GlowingBear. And from what I recall his original reasoning wasn't very good. Furthermore, I really didn't like the "playing to wincon" part of his accusation against GB. As I noted before, the only way Robik can accuse GB of not playing to win con as confidently as he did is if he knows GB is town, because mafia self-hammering can absolutely be part of the mafia win con (whereas town self-hammering never is part of town win con). Perhaps I'm getting greedy; I don't really believe in "scumslips." But I kinda think this was one.
Palmar, on the other hand, I feel more confident is mafia. I noted on p47 that Palmar seemed like a slightly more exaggerated version of himself in this game; he seemed to be more aggressively trolly/apathetic to start the day and then more aggressively active/ostensibly-helpful once that stopped. In my (limited) experience with Palmar as town, he tends to ease his way into a game; there's very little pushing to the degree he's done here, and his warmup process is slower and smoother. He doesn't go from 0 to 90 fucks given like he has here; it's more of a steady press on the give-a-fuck accelerator. It feels like he dropped a brick on the accelerator this game, like he was trying to make sure no one could question that he was being active and involved now.
Then there's his vote for GlowingBear... HTS already noted it. It's a policy vote, not a vote for mafia. The problem is that it's a policy vote based on GB martyring that's stayed on GB after GB retracted his self-vote. Policy votes are meant to be done to discourage the behavior triggering the policy vote. For them to be effective, then, there must be an incentive to revoke the behavior - a revoked vote in exchange. Palmar hasn't met GB halfway. If he really cares about the policy being effective, why is he not retracting his vote? On the other hand, if Palmar was just looking for a nice-sounding reason to put a vote down on GB (L-1 no less) and walk away, it makes perfect sense.
Toad and VE are still in my null pile; I don't see myself pursuing either of them as lynches today. liancourt, I still think is probably town because I can put myself in what I project to be his shoes and make sense of it from a townie POV.
##UNVOTE: Onegu
##VOTE: Palmar
eden eden eden...what are you doing man...i disagree with practically everything in this post because this is based on vote analysis. Am I correct in understanding that this is all based on gb self voting and him not being hammered and etc. The thinking behind if gb = town ergo onegu = town...i don't know how you come to this conclusion. If this equation makes sense to you then certainly if gb = scum ergo onegu = scum will make sense to you also. Yes? I don't understand how this post came about.
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On January 28 2015 09:59 GlowingBear wrote:
Eden, I've got home.
Ok, listen.
An idea crossed my mind: if I vote myself, I would be two votes away from being hammered.
Obvious scum would get me lynched quickly if both mafia voted me. If that happened, well, town would figure it out very quickly and game over for them.
If both mafia were already voting for me, all they needed to do was to try to convince the thread to vote me.
But what I think would be the most smart play for mafia would be to be airtime wishy washy but then quickly voting me and finally waiting for a townie to vote for me. The guy who would hammer a town would be VERY suspicious. This way, mafia avoids responsibility and gets a townie mislynched.
You see, if you see someone voting for himself, SPECIALLY in an instant majority game like this, you HAVE to take a step back and consider what's going on. You can't jumping to the lynch too quickly because you risk getting a townie mislynched. You have to think about what's going on.
You understand what I'm trying to say here? I voted myself expecting a mafia behaviour, and I saw that behaviour on Palmar.
gb can you like give us reads instead of explaining your very wifomish play of self voting. It's like a townie/mafia fake claiming cop for no reason.
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On January 28 2015 10:21 GlowingBear wrote:
Palmar, everything you say enters in contradiction.
You said you could have hammered me.
Then I show you knew you wouldn't
Then you say that you didn't want the day to end
Then I say that it doesn't make sense because if you didn't want he day to end you shouldn't be voting me at the first place
Then you say that if I flipped town it would tell a lot about the person who hammered me, when I clearly stated the opposite: that scum would avoid hammering to deflect attention, and again, this goes against th idea of the day not ending.
you keep elaborating on things that are total wifom.
Mafia can hammer.
Mafia can not vote at all
Mafia can bus
Mafia can vote early.
You aren't convincing me like this using wifomish reasons
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EPT
