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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 11:58 goodkarma wrote: It's pretty obvious I wouldn't be voting my townread, if that's what you're asking... What exactly are you asking? Never mind I misread and didn't pay attention to who you voted for. I thought you were super frustrated at the Vivax switch. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 11:51 Eden1892 wrote: eh I guess it depends on Haru's flip really so I'm not putting much stock into it, but on balance I think scum are much more likely to follow a move at EOD rather than start one. path of least resistance and all and I know that can be subverted, hence the "on balance" aspect re: whether Cav would let us know, I feel like he would yeah. just putting myself in my scum slippers for a minute, if I'm in the thread at EOD and there's a serious push to lynch someone I know will flip town, I'm certainly not gonna flip willy-nilly, I'm gonna make it look like I'm struggling to figure it out tbh I'm more interested in two things besides him moving to Vivax: 1) the pointed refusal to take any responsibility for where the thread is going by pushing for a particular lynch with anything resembling a credible case 2) the fact that it took for-fucking-ever for him to even put a vote down and show people where he stood before the end Eh, I think scum is more likely not to make a big deal and go with the flow because making a big deal draws attention. Nobody is going to go back and say 'well look at how hesitant he was to vote for a townie, surely he couldn't be scum.' I think #2 is more incriminating than #1. There are plenty of people who have just gone with thread sentiment or never bothered to push cases in the game thus far. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 12:07 Eden1892 wrote: they wouldn't say that, but you don't think the opposite of that is something people would say? "look at how quickly he parked a vote on a townie, that's pretty sketchy" especially after not voting all day and yeah I know that's why this game is so hard rofl. but that doesn't mean I can't or shouldn't start lynching people out of that group either Honestly, no. In my experience especially in regards to shenannies like this, a lot of the time people don't think twice because there's something forceful about that last-minute vote-switch pull and townies will almost always get dragged into it. When I read that marv was switching his vote to Vivax I immediately knew that he was going to be lynched. It's how these things tend to go. I don't know if that's a marv thing specifically or not, but I do feel like marv is often involved. I should go back and look at Shadow Game. I don't think it was Marv who started the D1 shenannies there though but he did go along with them. Maybe that's a bad example. bleh. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 12:00 WaveofShadow wrote: Never mind I misread and didn't pay attention to who you voted for. I thought you were super frustrated at the Vivax switch. In any case, who is next for you then, GK? This is all the time I've got to talk until tomorrow evening so let's try and have a discussion? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 06:00 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Yeah I don't really want to waste time doing that right now. I'll do it after lynch. I need a minute to think. Cav, what was this in reference to? Also, you do a lot of complaining around lynch time. On August 06 2014 06:13 ObiWanShinobi wrote: At this point it's borderline impossible for Vivax to even be lynched, so you should probably decide between gd and haru instead. I'm kind of leaning towards gd at this point but I'm not sure. On August 06 2014 06:04 ObiWanShinobi wrote: I remember Haru had me as scum for similar reasons in Titanic. Like I know his day 1 shit is incredibly asinine sometimes and it's the only thing stopping me from hammering him right now. On August 06 2014 07:00 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Well my vote doesn't matter anymore, and I don't even feel like this is a great lynch. On August 06 2014 07:15 ObiWanShinobi wrote: As am I. I just looked back over GD's filter and I'm back to not remembering why I scumread him. I think today is just a miss in general. You know who complains about lynch targets without ever offering a proper opinion or direction? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I can't decide if what you're saying is truthful or you took a gamble on Vivax not happening and lost. Actually wait a minute as scum you win with that either way, it's not really much of a gamble at all, is it? Looking over your filter Cav I actually like some of what you had going on in little bits in between but the deadline stuff just doesn't look great, nor do your refusals to interact with people at random intervals. Eden you never answered me as to why you think marv looks worse. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 13:28 ObiWanShinobi wrote: I don't understand the Vivax gamble thing at all. He was town, so what is there to gamble? I think this needs to be explained to me more. There are still two lynch targets who are complete question marks that we didn't go after because we didn't like the way someone was acting. Also, I don't really care what Eden thinks of me because his scumread is basically a storyline that makes no sense when you look at my filter. Too bad it's not even alignment indicative because I've seen him do it as town. -.-; I'm super paranoid of Marv and Holyflare as well, though. Both of them had flat-out awful reasons for going after Vivax. Calling it a gamble really doesn't make sense at all, it's much simpler than that. I think I have been overthinking it and am coming around to what Eden was saying a little more. Very easy for scum in your position to protest the Vivax lynch or at the very least say you don't want to look into him because if he DOES get lynched then in theory you look good for being in the 'right,' and you don't have to do any looking into him at all. If he doesn't get lynched the outcome is slightly worse (maybe therein is the gamble...I suppose it would be more like you 'won' the gamble instead) but you gain an ally in Vivax maybe? Maybe you planned on how it turned out? I dunno...I gotta leave this alone for a while and come back to it to see what makes the most sense. I think were I in that position as scum I would have taken a stance earlier and let the chips fall where they may. Anyway as for the rest: 'We' was marv. I'm almost certain nobody else lynched Vivax because attitude. You think marv or HF could be scum hard-pushing Vivax in that way? This interests me. I actually think it is possible one of them *COULD be but it's still pretty doubtful imo. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 13:33 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Wave, what's your read on me right now? Still scummy but there's gutfeels in it now interfering and it's not entirely objective? In any case I'd still see Haru swing before you. I should go back and look at marv's attacks on haru. Those looked pretty ironclad at the time and I'm kind of wondering why he backed off. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 13:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Marv is basically 'we' and should be considered 'we' because everyone followed him because fuck it why not. Also, if you honestly believe I orchestrated a mass voteswitch to Vivax at the last second, despite the fact that I was telling everyone not to, then lol. I seriously wish I was capable of that as mafia. What? Where did I say you orchestrated the switch? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
And here: I'm super paranoid of Marv and Holyflare as well, though. Both of them had flat-out awful reasons for going after Vivax. And my response: You think marv or HF could be scum hard-pushing Vivax in that way? This interests me. I actually think it is possible one of them *COULD be but it's still pretty doubtful imo. I want you to flesh this out. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 14:54 Eden1892 wrote: OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why. 1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't. 2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped. 3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place. 4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven. 5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state. 6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven. 7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven. 8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven. We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early. I really like this post. More of this plz, because I agree. On August 06 2014 14:37 ObiWanShinobi wrote: You talked about it a bit, but Wave starting being Wave at me. Honestly, I'm still getting the disjointedness in his posting. He still feels totally calculated and robotic in his posting. It feels like his scumread on me is forced because I thought I gave him reasonable answers, so I don't know where that's coming from. And then his read winds up being 100% wishy-washy. I feel really paranoid this game. I really hate this post. 'Wishy-washy' again, as if that's supposed to mean something, and I have no idea what 'wave being wave' means, coming from you, since you have no idea what I'm like. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 15:45 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Your argument is that the wagon was easy, so it has to be town-driven because there's no mafia motivation behind an easy third counterwagon onto a more experienced player. There couldn't be mafia interference because there's no case on Vivax, I mean...Really? What more could you ask for when everyone thinks that someone practically lynched themselves? Even if both GD and Haru are town, there's plenty of motivation to take out a player that's really strong in the later stages of the game, because both of these players will end up being up for lynch later, if not immediately. It's like you refuse to acknowledge that anyone on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. By your analysis, you're admitting that there isn't a single player on the Vivax lynch that could be mafia. There's plenty of mafia motivation behind the Vivax lynch it's crazy that you can't see it. It actually kinda ticks me off, but you always do that so what do I know. Stop talking out your ass, being a jerk and put up. You have a lot of great reasons as to why there is mafia motivation behind a Vivax lynch, but I have yet to see you talk about which mafia orchestrated the lynch in that case, aside from some offhanded comments about HF. If there is such a great deal of mafia pulling strings in the Vivax lynch, then who was it and how did they pull it off? Think about this and then ask yourself what is more likely. Like...this quote On August 06 2014 15:03 ObiWanShinobi wrote: There was no case on Vivax. We killed him because omfg he was mean to us and fuck him anyway lolol. Acting like a bad wagon can't be mafia driven is foolishness. There was tons of mafia motivation to turn the lynch onto Vivax at the last second. We now have two question marks in Haru and GD, and even if we kill both of them, it'll be hard to dictate exactly what the mafia was doing during day 1. It will take us days to decipher all of the information generated during the lynch because of the complexities, so saying it was town-motivated because it was easy is nonsense. It's actually even more likely that the Vivax wagon was mafia driven because of the immense amount of confusion it generated in its wake. You're grossly underestimating how badly this nonsensical third counterwagon hurts the town. is all well and good, but it does us NO good at all to simply shoot down Eden's thought processes without actually coming up with real scenarios with real names like he did. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 06 2014 15:55 ObiWanShinobi wrote: If a bunch of people you think are scum are on the Vivax wagon, then it is not a town-driven wagon. Honestly, I'm going to take a break from posting for a while because both of you are frustrating me. I disagree with that wholeheartedly. It was a marv-driven wagon. He drove people to vote for Vivax, simple as that. It is very difficult for town OR scum to resist the marv-pull. While I believe there were absolutely people of both alignments on the wagon, if you want to speak purely in majority terms, simply the fact that 8 people voted for Vivax and that there are only 3 scum means it IS a town-driven wagon. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Trying to decide if NK is frame attempt on people kush has found scummy (HF, onegu, Gd) but I don't think I've ever actually seen mafia attempt to frame anyone so I think I'm forced to discount it. Marv doesn't sheep lightly so I'm willing to bet he has faith in kush's reads for a reason. I've re-evaluated some reads as I caught up. Just a sec | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Haru - I haven't really changed my mind on him because he hasn't really done anything much different since I posted my case on him I don't think. I still don't know why everything seems to hinge on that ridiculous +1/-1 discussion because my case certainly dwell on it, and yet again people don't seem to care about and yet still want to lynch him. I admit I could be wrong here since there are a few influential people who seemed to townread him but I'm not quite following the reasons for their townreads. Need to see way more from him. Obi---I have to look back at whatever game it was where HF bussed suki from the start and we lost because that is the only game I seem to remember cav being in with me. Supposedly there were others because he feels like he knows how i play but whatever. The belligerence is easy to fake but I think it might be town. HF - Quite possibly scum. Had him as town based on most of his D1 but lately the stuff people have been on him about rings true, but I don't think in quite the same way. I've seen scum HF play this angrily---and people are on him about defending himself but that's only part of it imo. He went from pushing stuff on me and Haru (and Vivax I think) in a somewhat reasonable way to being completely abrasive and pushy about it while at the SAME TIME being super defensive whenever somebody even whispers his name. It was mentioned earlier (by marv I think) that it's often very difficult to let attacks on you go; I'm often guilty of this myself so I don't think HF is scum for that alone. It's not scum anger at being attacked/caught, it's simply good and convincing scumplay to fuel emotion from the defenses into the thread and appear genuine in your reads and appear frustrated trying to take credit for absolutely everything that was ever done. Saying shit like 'The people who are calling me scum are scum?' Come on. That's simply a ridiculous statement and it was thrown into the thread only for effect. HF is a strong player as either alignment but this reminds me SO MUCH of the last championship game we played together it's crazy. The one thing I can't quite decide on is where his early attacks on me belong---a bunch of people early game flung shit at me early but none of it stuck, and I think HF was the worst offender. Where have I been in his posts throughout the latter half of the game so far though? Onegu - When you read this Onegu, can you (or somebody else) point me in the direction of you catching HF? I REALLY want to read that. Almost assuredly town so I feel like kush must have been right about somebody (since marv faith) else on that list. GK and JAT have flown completely under the radar. I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of them was scum. WHen they post I seem to remember liking some stuff they say but then I can't remember any of it nor does it have any effect on thread direction or sentiment. If either is scum they're good scum. In before the post above was 'stiff' or 'manufactured' gg calling myself out before that horseshit is thrown at me again. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I'm going to be streaming later tonight so I'll post on and off + Show Spoiler + I kind of want to stream myself playing this game like Foolishness did in Shadow cause I feel like it would be really interesting but I also feel like that's probably against the rules I can likely be on tomorrow afternoon as I have some time off so yall had better be active then. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Care to talk about it? | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On August 07 2014 11:02 Onegu wrote: So I am awake but busy for the next few hours, but I didn't want to say anything until after day post, but I am leaning toward a marv lynch ATM. Like he hasn't done much, led a mislynch day 1, and in a game with no medics and no chance to be saved wasn't shot. This just doesn't happen with a town marv, like maybe we can give him one more day to catch scum but it's really risky if he is scum as it gives him one more mislynch and a nk. I say kill him now. @ WoS. I pointed out my gut felt he was scum, and quoted something you and him talked about to give me feels on both of you. Then he was like oh then why did you give poofter a town read. He twisted my words to make his own agenda and defense. It's on page like 94ish, my filter is small you should see it fast in there. If you guys are against a marv lynch I would want HF Back later with the rest of my reads. ##VOTE:Marv I actually meant where you caught HF in those other games you were talking about. Interesting interpretation though. I'm not sure town or scum more likely thinks of himself 'catching' someone who hasn't flipped yet and is by no means a conclusive lynch. As for 'this doesn't happen with a town marv,' yes, yes it does. That first paragraph though dude. Just awful. I refuse to use the term 'wishy-washy,' but you go from being at least appearing fairly confident with 'this just doesn't happen with town marv' (even though you're wrong) to 'maybe we can give him one more day.' If you think he's so risky to keep alive, you push for his lynch, you don't bring up the idea and immediately back down, dude. Somebody who knows Onegu...that's still town Onegu, right? | ||
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