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On May 17 2014 02:33 Epishade wrote:
Eden I didn't like that you believed that Bunny panicking was indicative of her mafia alignment. It seemed like you wanted to say that to sway me to solidify my vote against her. Your parity cop explanation I didn't particularly care for either, but I may be reading too much into that so I'm not sure. I would also disagree that changing my vote isn't indicative of my alignment.
You're welcome to disagree with me re: her panicking, but I'm standing by what I said there, it was way too early to panic and I think scum would be more likely to do that than town in this instance. It's not even close to the main cog in my argument so I'm not really concerned with it either way.
re: vote change, the only reason it looks townie imo is because I independently think you're town from the other data in the thread. If we're just looking at it in isolation, you could be mafia changing your vote because you know town!bunnies would happily go with it to avoid being lynched, or you could be town changing it due to a genuine change of heart on your read on her. It doesn't say anything either way on its own. What DOES say something either way is you being scumread the whole game by dravernor and dfs, that's as close to ironclad proof as we're gonna get.
On May 17 2014 02:48 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Final defense:
Why i am town:
I've been proactive throughout the game.
I've led lynches where i felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia.
I've questioned reads, reconsidered positions, and also got a mislynch pulled off of meat and yellow.
I was being read as town by the entire town.
I have given logic behind my reads, given information on why I think epishade is town, and a bit why eden is mafia, including possible logical scenerios that could have taken place.
- I've been more proactive throughout the game.
- I've led lynches where I felt they needed to be led, one of them on mafia.
- I've questioned reads and reconsidered positions. I can't remember explicitly saving a townie from being mislynched, but I also don't remember her doing this either, because I don't remember where meat or Yell0w were serious threats to be lynched.
- All three of us have been solidly townread by the town.
- I did this as well, to much greater depth and detail than bunnies did.
- The data from our dead mafia points more strongly at her than me; see my comments re: Occam's Razor in the last couple of posts for details.
- I've been much more objective in analyzing all three of us and the reads the dead mafia gave on each of us this turn, whereas I don't think bunnies has done the same; she's done an awful lot of insisting that she's town instead of allowing the data to demonstrate it, and it's because the data doesn't and can't demonstrate it.
I acknowledge it's not a clear-cut decision for you Epishade but I think the data ultimately does point to bunnies as the final mafia over me.
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I'm not really sure what to say about the Yell0w read that isn't obvious. I got it wrong. Mercifully I didn't get it wrong at 3p LYLO, and we still have 1.5 hours to make the right call. I didn't want to save dfs from getting lynched on the day he did, I just didn't trust the lynch when both of my scumreads at the time were on it. Wouldn't you have doubted it too, in my shoes? In the end I voted to kill him despite my concerns, and it worked out for us. I don't see how being skeptical of the right lynch, but eventually getting on it anyway, is scummy.
The Yell0w nightkill IS still WIFOM in the end. You say bunnies didn't try to scumread me for it, but she definitely did! I can go pull several posts from this day where she did exactly what you're saying she didn't do. And I don't think she has to have "framed" me to be scummy here. Yell0w wasn't going to get mislynched. You both had absolutely townread him. If either of you had been mafia, don't you think I'd have noticed you do a complete 180 at 3p LYLO to vote with me to kill Yell0w? Yell0w was the only person who was for sure not going to get lynched, so he got nightkilled. Anything beyond that is unverifiable speculation.
You're correct that I sided with you over bunnies because you were scumread by dravernor and dfs. It has nothing to do with my alignment. My choice is between you two, my alignment doesn't play into it at all. That choice was pretty clear.
In your analysis, you haven't answered the crucial question I've been posing to bunnies (with no satisfactory answer). Why would dravernor and dfs be setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning? That's the only consistent explanation for how I can be their teammate, and it's not plausible at all. Looking at the day-of events on the day dravernor was lynched isn't the right way to assess whether dravernor was bused; looking at the events prior to it is the right way to make that assessment. I nulled or scumread her the whole way up to the lynch, she nulled or scumread me the whole way up to the lynch. That's not the profile of mafia busing mafia, that's the profile of a town player successfully sniffing her out as mafia and making sure she got lynched. I think if I were mafia on that day, I could have gotten ahswtini lynched without much of a problem, since I was scumreading her as well and several others were too. Busing when other options are available is typically a pretty terrible move, and I think it's pretty obvious I didn't bus here as a result, because I would have had other options had I been mafia.
You still have time to make the right call here. You know what the data's telling you. The theory that I had my teammates set themselves up to be bused so I could ride to the end just doesn't add up. Even in your last post here, which had several good arguments in it, you couldn't coherently explain how this happened; you explained piecemeal details that don't make sense as a whole picture. It's because that's not what happened. I didn't bus either of dravernor or dfs, because I'm not mafia. I'm town.
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bunnies has been opportunistically trying to get whomever she can lynched today. She built a big case on you that didn't really follow, she said she "couldn't find anything she didn't like" in my filter, and voted you. Then when I rightfully didn't budge, she turns on me and votes me. Is that the way a townie plays at the end? Just voting whomever she can get lynched, instead of trying to find the right kill? You'll notice that, had I been mafia, I had the chance to allow myself to be persuaded by her case against you, but I dug in and stood my ground on your innocence. Why? Because I knew she was mafia, and you were town. The data is overwhelmingly clear about you being town.
It's frustrating that her flip flop has gone completely unnoticed here, because I feel like it went unnoticed because I didn't bite on it. How does she go from "I can't find anything in Eden's filter I don't like" to being convinced I'm mafia? It just doesn't make sense!
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One hour left. It's unfortunate bunnies can't be around, but I'm here to answer any questions or concerns you've got.
Think it over some more. You know what your brain is telling you to do. It doesn't make sense any other way. She has to be mafia. dravernor's and dfs's actions across the whole game don't fit any other possible partner.
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You're still here right? It'd suck for us to lose on an untimely afk
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I didn't ignore any data regarding tambo and Yellow, though. My argument was that the mafia had a better read on another PR and decided to take the chance on tambo not shooting since it had been argued in the thread that a misfire that night would lose the game for town. The argument ended up being wrong obviously since Yell0w was town, but I didn't ignore any data, I just read the wrong conclusion out of multiple valid conclusions from the data we had. It was a wrong read, but it wasn't borne out of willful ignoring of data, just the wrong conclusion from that data.
The problem with dfs's and dravernor's townreads isn't that they townread bunnies for no reason, it's that they didn't townread me. The choice here isn't "townread Eden and don't townread bunnies" vs "townread bunnies and don't townread Eden." The choice is "townread Eden and bunnies" (indicating I'm their partner) or "townread bunnies but not Eden" (indicating I'm not their partner). I don't think it's suspicious in and of itself that they townread bunnies, I think it's obvious that bunnies has to be the partner because they didn't townread me as well. If I were their partner they could easily have townread me to give my arguments added credibility and been able to justify that townread without much problem. But they didn't, because I'm not their partner.
re: tambo lynch d1, I understand why you wouldn't agree with my reasoning if you were worried that tambo was the vig, but I was really sure at the time that it was a fakeclaim. I hate to dig into my limited meta here to back myself up, but in the only other game I've played here, I pushed for a lynch on an un-counterclaimed parity cop on d1 as town because I didn't believe his claim. If I think it's more likely that someone is anti-town than they are town, even after factoring in a role claim, I don't let the role claim on principle stop me from trying to lynch them.
We might end up x-posting here, but you still haven't answered the crucial question I keep harping on here -- why would dravernor and dfs set themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning like this? It requires prescience that I would end up in the final three, which doesn't make sense at all. One, there's no way to know that on D1, and two, scum don't play for a win like that, they try to get as many people to LYLO as they can so they have as much control of the endgame vote as they can. Willfully sacrificing two thirds of their voting power to push one guy to the endgame doesn't make sense.
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15 minutes. Not to push you into making a hasty decision, Epishade, but we're low on time. Is there anything else you need me to address? I think I've made my case for bunnies being the last mafia pretty well.
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On May 17 2014 06:48 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay i want to poit out something, i andwered your questions, eden, and you chose to ignore it! I said that the play of drav and dfs putting slight suspicion towards you towards the end was due to you telling them they needed to. Like i said, it was just a possible scenerio in my mind, they could have done it unintentionally or it could be a play.
As for the sacrifice, no i dont think it was a play from the beginning. Hell, for all i know, they didnt even know you were going to push them in front of a bus. Maybe it just so happened to be that way.
What i was saying os that with suspicion on you, if you get pynched, it buys them credibility as town, if they get lynched, it buys you credibility as town
I didn't choose to ignore it, I explicitly addressed this. You actually ignored it, saying that you didn't know what Occam's Razor was. If you truly don't know what it means then that's one thing, but don't come at me like I didn't address this, 'cause I definitely did.
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On May 17 2014 06:49 Epishade wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2014 06:40 Eden1892 wrote:
We might end up x-posting here, but you still haven't answered the crucial question I keep harping on here -- why would dravernor and dfs set themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning like this? It requires prescience that I would end up in the final three, which doesn't make sense at all. One, there's no way to know that on D1, and two, scum don't play for a win like that, they try to get as many people to LYLO as they can so they have as much control of the endgame vote as they can. Willfully sacrificing two thirds of their voting power to push one guy to the endgame doesn't make sense. The only way I can see that you mean they are setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning is that they weren't townreading you, and that if they were townreading you, you might have had more power to sway people. It might not make the most sense to not townread one of your partners, but to me, it's like they're investing in risk. They weren't setting themselves up to be lynched later, but you were the strongest of the two of them (if you are mafia, anyways). If they get lynched, them not townreading you would make you look townie in comparison.
It's more than just taking away my power to sway people, they didn't follow me on my attempt to lynch tambo d1 when we'd have been able to kill off a claimed town vig or an sk. I'll double check but I think they only voted with me once, for sqrt on d2, when he was a near-consensus pick. They actively didn't coordinate with me the whole way. You can call it hedging for them being caught, but that's another way to say the same thing I'm meaning -- they're actively sacrificing our ability to coordinate as a team in favor of making me look townie for busing them, and doing all this from the opening day. It just doesn't fit the mafia's goals at all. The mafia's advantage is being able to coordinate. Throwing that away on the off-chance that I make it to 3p LYLO doesn't make sense!
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Unfortunately I've gotta go for a little while, but I'll be back on later this evening to answer any questions.
Good on you following your heart, Epishade. That long post with about an hour to go was excellent. Y'all earned this one for sure.
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On May 17 2014 08:31 Epishade wrote:
That was stressful figuring out who to lynch.
Eden, was I on track with that parity cop thing, did you slip up?
Sorta kinda. I meant what I was asking and didn't think the comment itself was especially scummy, but my delivery was subpar and I'm sure my alignment had something to do with it.
Nah the big slip was me asking about the vig shot whenever that was, and you caught it immediately.
also that vigi claim was fuckin GOAT lmao
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Despite losing, I'm happy with this ending. From my standpoint, I did nearly everything I could; I don't have any regrets about how I played. And in the end, seeing somebody set aside his fears and doubts, trusting his heart, and winning because of it? That's why we play the game. That ending was a quintessential mafia ending and while I obviously would have preferred to win, I can't be upset losing that way.
Fantastic show from all of you. Thanks for a wonderful experience.
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rofl @ epishade coaching qt
I think I might have given Robik shit about being a coach before this, but his style is well suited for it imo
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Ya, I misread meat as the parity cop n2 which is why we didn't rb tambo. In retrospect big mistake
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On May 17 2014 10:30 Epishade wrote:
I think you do rofl.
Misread what you said. Wonder if anyone got it though during the game.
i did
nvr5get
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i think from a general pro-town standpoint that claim was pretty bad
but it threw me way the fuck off so i guess it worked out this time
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On May 17 2014 18:19 mtamburini wrote:
trololololol Read the mafia QT and had a laugh had you all spinning!
I felt I had a decent grasp on the game of the power roles in the game (thought there was a parity cop though someone seemed to soft it hard) but they were mafia I think through out my notes when we won!
meat was softing it super hard, i talked about it in the maf qt
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EPT![[image loading]](http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6odkq8jNo1qbolbn.gif)
