EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 7
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 10:32 mtamburini wrote: Can i just shoot you for telling me what to do But that means you're not shooting Yell0w, which is bad | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
You shouldn't shoot me because I've done arguably the most of anyone in the game to find mafia and figure out what's going on. Epishade is the only other person still alive that I'd consider as my equal in that respect. Mafia obviously don't especially care to figure out the game state and they aim to fit in with the town's degree of figuring things out, not to rise above it or fall below it. I've also on a couple of occasions argued for my lynch candidate over the opposing wagon when mafia would either have no special incentive to do so (see day 1 when two townies were up for a lynch) or would have an incentive not to do so (see day 3 when my switch to dravernor and subsequent arguing for her lynch got her killed when I could have stayed on mysterymeat and probably gotten him killed instead). Finally and tied to the previous point, I drove the wagon on the only scum we've caught. You should shoot Yell0w because his play has been cowardly, which is a mafia trait. He's been very reactive; he only gets involved when someone else is accusing him or voting for him, he doesn't push for his candidate to get killed and he hasn't shown any initiative in trying to find mafia. He's the only player who has never voted for a player who's flipped yet, which is a huge black mark in my book because it betrays a reticence to be on the record. Town don't have a particular motive to be on the record, but scum have a powerful incentive NOT to be on the record, as the fewer the number of confirmed players they've weighed in on, the more flexible they can be in their search for a lynch. Furthermore, the reason he's been off the record so far is that he keeps parking his vote on outlying candidates (dfs last night, mtamburini d2). People who are consistently on outliers, like Yell0w is, and who aren't arguing for their candidate strongly and making cases for them, like Yell0w hasn't, are more likely to be scum, because again, they don't want to be on the record. It's forgivable to be off the record if you're pushing your cases hard and simply not convincing people. It's not forgivable to be off the record and not making an effort to get on the record by getting your preferred candidate lynched. Yell0w is in the latter category, and it's time to stop forgiving him. My second choice is ahswtini because I don't feel his votes have matched up with his story. The main thing I'm noticing is that while he voted to kill dravernor late, the whole time he was arguing for meat and dfs to be killed. dfs would have been a viable third wagon if he had switched, but he didn't. meat was a viable second wagon until the end, and ahswtini wasn't on it at all. I don't understand why he would name two other players as his main suspects and then vote for dravernor instead. But my issue is that I don't understand it as either alignment. As town, why is he on someone he doesn't name as his 1st or 2nd suspect, when both of them were viable counterwagons? As mafia, why did he kill his teammate instead of sticking with his story and trying to kill one of the others? I guess it's possible ahs/meat/dfs/drav was the scumteam, but I don't buy that at all. ahs is also the least townie of the non-Yell0w others in the game; I think Eden/Epishade/bunnies are all obvtown at this point, meat's probably town, and dfs is probably town because Yell0w was pushing him so hard over drav. So by POE if you don't kill Yell0w I'd rather ahs over the rest. But I really want Yell0w. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 07:00 iamperfection wrote: Day 4 mtamburini the Helix Worshiper is dead. You have 48 hours good players | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 07:22 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Its pretty dangerous to assume there is only 3 mafia. And i dont' mind mtam's ploy. He survives a lynch, and gets roleblocked. Pretty good for a vanilla town. I like how you say dfs is indefensible when i'm the one who brought up that dfs was mafia, and i've pushed the hardest for him since the very begining. Throwing someone under the bus, when i have absolutely nothing to gain? no this was objectively a pretty terrible play, he derailed the d1 lynch because his claim didn't make sense and I and others assumed he was sk for it and if the numbers hadn't worked out right for him to give him an excuse not to shoot n2, he'd have probably been mislynched for holding his shot not worth worrying about atm though. what is is that we have seven players left: Eden bunnies Epishade dfs meat ahswtini Yell0w and 2-3 scum | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE Yell0w | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 09 2014 12:08 MysteryMeat1 wrote: well for now confirmed town would be bunnies me yell0w fenced epi eden scum dfs ahs How is Yell0w even close to confirmed town? This hasn't and doesn't make sense to me at all. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 08 2014 11:11 Eden1892 wrote: You should shoot Yell0w because his play has been cowardly, which is a mafia trait. He's been very reactive; he only gets involved when someone else is accusing him or voting for him, he doesn't push for his candidate to get killed and he hasn't shown any initiative in trying to find mafia. He's the only player who has never voted for a player who's flipped yet, which is a huge black mark in my book because it betrays a reticence to be on the record. Town don't have a particular motive to be on the record, but scum have a powerful incentive NOT to be on the record, as the fewer the number of confirmed players they've weighed in on, the more flexible they can be in their search for a lynch. Furthermore, the reason he's been off the record so far is that he keeps parking his vote on outlying candidates (dfs last night, mtamburini d2). People who are consistently on outliers, like Yell0w is, and who aren't arguing for their candidate strongly and making cases for them, like Yell0w hasn't, are more likely to be scum, because again, they don't want to be on the record. It's forgivable to be off the record if you're pushing your cases hard and simply not convincing people. It's not forgivable to be off the record and not making an effort to get on the record by getting your preferred candidate lynched. Yell0w is in the latter category, and it's time to stop forgiving him. My second choice is ahswtini because I don't feel his votes have matched up with his story. The main thing I'm noticing is that while he voted to kill dravernor late, the whole time he was arguing for meat and dfs to be killed. dfs would have been a viable third wagon if he had switched, but he didn't. meat was a viable second wagon until the end, and ahswtini wasn't on it at all. I don't understand why he would name two other players as his main suspects and then vote for dravernor instead. But my issue is that I don't understand it as either alignment. As town, why is he on someone he doesn't name as his 1st or 2nd suspect, when both of them were viable counterwagons? As mafia, why did he kill his teammate instead of sticking with his story and trying to kill one of the others? I guess it's possible ahs/meat/dfs/drav was the scumteam, but I don't buy that at all. ahs is also the least townie of the non-Yell0w others in the game; I think Eden/Epishade/bunnies are all obvtown at this point, meat's probably town, and dfs is probably town because Yell0w was pushing him so hard over drav. So by POE if you don't kill Yell0w I'd rather ahs over the rest. But I really want Yell0w. OK, I want people to talk to me about both of these reads. No one seems to have an opinion on Yell0w besides meat, who sees him as super town for some reason I don't understand. Lots of people seem to share a scumread on ahswtini. Can we kill one of these two today? I'm nearly positive both are mafia. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 03:31 MysteryMeat1 wrote: @Eden. Everyone thought that mtamb was vigi. Why would mafia choose to roll block me when they could roll block a "vigi". The reason they didn't was because he was going to shoot yell0w. No one knew or really believed he couldn't shoot yell0w. They choose to kill ritoky and use their roleblock on me. I know my roleblock claims are "unfalsifiable" but we are not lynching yell0w today or tomorrow. dfs i'm 100% convinced is mafia 80% on ahs 60% your mafia - just cause your reads aren't useful 40% on epishade. He chose not to shoot that night because he was worried about losing the game for us. The mafia could easily have predicted this and chose to roleblock someone they thought was a power role. It's weird to me that you're not even considering this possibility. Weird, as opposed to scummy, because you're probably town in my book, but it's starting to make me wonder since you're so insistent that I'm wrong, claiming my "reads aren't useful," and the like, but you're not doing the slightest thing to try to persuade me of this. It's like you're content to see me be wrong about it and I don't understand why that would be. On May 10 2014 03:33 MysteryMeat1 wrote: There is also probably a reason that parity cop hasnt come out, and i think you should think about that eden I think I have a pretty good idea, but in case the mafia don't I'm not going to say anything. Why do you want me talking about this instead of finding scum, though? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 11:39 Yell0w wrote: You're really going to go with that theory that I'm mafia and predicted tamburini wouldn't shoot me despite being on my case all game prior to that moment? Do you think restating my argument back to me in the form of a skeptical question is going to dissuade me? Yes, I think so. If he's wrong then he loses the game, plain and simple. It's entirely reasonable to predict that the mafia would predict he wouldn't shoot as a result and would choose not to roleblock him. Look at the consequences of it, meat is clearing you 100% and no one but me seems willing to lynch you as a result. It's a risky play but it's not at all unreasonable. Your handwaving dismissal is doing a lot to confirm its truth to me. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Considering who's voting for dfs, I see Yell0w on the wagon and I'm immediately suspicious of it. I think I like everyone else on it but it got started by my top scum read and I'm not independently convinced dfs is scum so I'm having a real hard time voting for it. Someone post the case on dfs and tell me why he's a better pick than ahswtini here. Reads: Epishade moved ahead of bunnies as my top town read, he's been working harder than her over the past few days bunnies is probably still town, I've already expressed my issues with her sorta coasting to today; it's not enough to make me suspicious though, just annoyed; posts still seem pretty genuine meat has been trending up like Epishade has, still in my town group here dfs hasn't worked as hard as the townies above, don't think anything has stood out as really suspicious either; I would lynch him if I couldn't get ahswtini or Yell0w, definitely ahead of my top four, but definitely below my bottom two ahswtini and Yell0w I'm still pretty sure are both scum, see my night post for details | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
You guys can't seriously be okay with this, right? Everyone suspects ahswtini at this point, he's hopping on the dfs lynch without a care in the world. Everybody's writing off Yell0w because they assume the mafia wasn't capable of assuming tambo wouldn't fire his gun, even though we explicitly discussed this exact possibility the night they would have had to roleblock. Now we're supposed to assume the mafia isn't capable of even raising a viable counterlynch to scum!dfs, that they're just going to lie down and let us have him? No way. This can't be right. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 10 2014 21:33 ahswtini wrote: Which is exactly what I'm saying. Any way I vote makes me look scummy. If I don't vote dfs, I'm making some outlier vote and don't want to vote for my scum buddy. If I do vote dfs, I'm jumping on an easy bandwagon. Fuck this, I'm unvoting and voting bunnies instead. At this stage it's not even going to matter, because one of dfs or myself is getting lynched, bunnies will never get lynched, my vote on dfs is not going to make a difference. How willing are you to vote Yell0w then? And what's your case on bunnies? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
##VOTE dfs | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Pretty sure Epishade is town. Bunnies also still seems town. Yell0w isn't even trying to find the mafia, ahs is at least making a token effort. Will switch to ahswtini if needed to prevent vote-splitting but I'm not willing to vote myself, Epishade or bunnies. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
as noted earlier ahs is at least making some effort to solve game, yellow isn't, see night post for tambo for deets posting from phone please excuse brevity and lack of links | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please. - Aside from that, and assuming there is another mafia teammate out there, we know dfs's teammates bailed on him. Thus, what we should not be looking at is when people voted for dfs, but why. People who either built a decent case on dfs, or voted dfs after asking him some questions and trying to discern his alignment, or otherwise showed clear deliberation about the dfs lynch, are town. People who just parked a vote on dfs and peaced out are scum selling out their teammates. Here's a breakdown of everyone's thoughts on dfs last turn correlating to their vote: Yell0w: Parks vote on dfs, only posts one more time in the thread to whine at me for finding him suspicious. He claims to have "already made a case on dfs," but I can only find posts here and here that even approach the level of "making a case," and in neither instance do they satisfy my understanding of what a case should be. The first post is "well no one will go on my REAL scumread, and I really don't want to lynch dravernor [editor's note: who was scum], so I'll vote for dfs instead." That's not a case. The second post is a decent point about the shady interactions between dravernor and dfs, but not exactly what I'd call a "case." Recall that at the time we only knew dravernor was scum, and dravernor didn't have significant interactions with anyone. If I were in Yell0w's shoes looking at the same data, I would be asking more questions or at least listening to others' posts on the matter; hell, Yell0w himself is incriminated by the same logic, since dravernor didn't significantly interact with anybody and Yell0w didn't significantly interact with dravernor except to do anything in his power not to vote for dravernor the day she was lynched. There's a pretty good case for Yell0w busing dfs for credit here, because he made an appeal to a by-no-means conclusive case against dfs and bailed on the thread for the day after that. bunnies: More or less just followed Epishade's case onto dfs here. Also fits the bill for "busing teammate," though she stuck around afterward to talk to people and further develop her reads. Of the two I think it's obvious that Yell0w is the more likely scum candidate. Epishade: Makes his case here. Self-explanatory, this is clearly the result of reasoned, deliberate detective work, not a bus. Eden: Finally votes for dfs here after looking for reasons not to vote dfs here. If dfs was deliberately bused for town credit, this ain't it. Eden has no reason to do this, having already spearheaded the dravernor lynch, and being on the tail end of a scum lynch doesn't get you town credit anyway. I don't think this makes Eden more town, just that it makes him an invalid candidate for the whole "dfs's teammates sold him downriver" idea. So the plausible candidates for a fourth mafia, to ahs's third, based on last turn are Yell0w or, less likely but still possible, bunnies. I think it's obviously Yell0w of those two. - Yell0w's arguments against me are manipulative and wrong: 1) He says he wants to kill me because meat said so. He's ignoring -- and hoping you'll all ignore with him -- the fact that meat said to kill ahswtini first, and that ahswtini is voting for me and was voting for me when Yell0w put his vote down. This is the main thing that's driving me to think that Yell0w and ahswtini are partners and that we have four mafia. If Yell0w were really following meat's reads like he's insinuating he is, why isn't he going in the order that meat said? The obvious answer is that it's LYLO, he and ahs are teammates and he knows that he can win it this turn by getting me killed instead of his teammate. And if he's really town following meat's reads, why isn't he really skeptical about the fact that meat's top scumread is voting for me? 2) He says I'm "not even trying anymore to give reasons to lynching [him]" and then goes on to name the reason I voted to lynch him. Please. He's acting like "not trying to find the mafia" isn't a valid reason to kill someone at LYLO. It's completely valid, I've made the case nearly a week ago now for that and he still hasn't found the time to rebut it satisfactorily. He says he's not mafia because he lead the vote on dfs, when that's demonstrably not true; I've covered this earlier in this post. Most damning to me is the line after that: "I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say." You're kidding me, right? There's at least one mafia and very likely two mafia still out there, and this guy says there was nothing else to say. This proves to me that Yell0w was just busing dfs for credit. If he were actually town and sure about dfs getting lynched, he would spend the remaining time trying to find the other teammate(s) hiding out. 3) He says I just voted dfs because I didn't have a better target. Yup, after a lot of thinking about the game and finding myself unable to convince people to vote for my main suspects -- and I certainly tried; I thought the fact that the people everyone was scumreading just piled onto dfs was sketch and I pointed it out, no one responded to it -- I went on dfs over bunnies. I think that was an obvious choice regardless of my alignment. I'm not going to argue this makes me more townie, only that it's manipulative to say it makes me scummy. It's null. The choice was too clear no matter what. 4) He says I bused dravernor for town credit. Again, please. Where's the proof of this? Epishade's already addressed this point pretty well I think, you'd have to argue that dravernor was playing her entire game from D1 just to set herself up for me to bus her on D3 because we were scumreading each other the whole game. That argument that can only come from trying to make a retroactive justification for a conclusion you've already adopted. Any honest assessment of my interactions with dravernor and dfs has to conclude I'm obviously town. tl;dr: read it If I move off Yell0w, I'm only moving off of Yell0w to prevent vote-splitting. I'm the current lynch target which means all three of Epishade/bunnies/me need to unite our votes. If bunnies and Epishade won't vote Yell0w but will vote ahswtini, I'll move to ahswtini, because I think Yell0w and ahswtini are scum. If they won't vote either, we lose anyway. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I think the mafia team are clearly ahswtini and Yell0w. I don't think Epishade wants Yell0w today, so in order to make this work... ##UNVOTE ##VOTE ahswtini | ||
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