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There isn't a lot of time left and I'm not convinced any of the lynch target right now are mafia, I have this gut feeling that Eden might be mafia so I don't want to listen to him, but also ahs made a pretty solid case against mysterymeat.... But then again they could be a scum team trying to lynch him.
But right now I just want to know why tamburini seems to be considered by everyone to be 100% the vigi when he has done nothing to prove that, he didn't shoot or anything, I think it's possible he was never roleblocked too. Here's an scenario that's, I think, possible, he's scum with meat and claim he was roleblocked night 1 then meat claims he was roleblocked night 2 but none of that actually happened, the roleblock night 1 on tamburini was to make it seems like he was the vigi but he couldn't shoot and the one night 2 was because they were concerned meat was suspicious and we might lynch him so that by making it seems like he was roleblocked by mafia, he wouldn't be a suspect, though clearly that didn't work. Today they have been clearing each other pretty hard and tamburini in both mornings acted really weirdly, asking me why I was alive then asking who was roleblocked before saying if he was roleblocked or not is really strange behavior for a supposedly confirmed town. The only flaw I can see with that plan at first look is the vigi claim was really risky if you're not actually the vigi, maybe he just got lucky and there wasn't a vigi this game.
Anyways, I didn't analyze this thing fully, just something that randomly popped in my head, why is nobody considering the possibility that he isn't vigi? Why didn't they kill him if he's vigi? Why wouldn't he shoot if he's vigi?
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On May 08 2014 00:13 Yell0w wrote:
There isn't a lot of time left and I'm not convinced any of the lynch target right now are mafia, I have this gut feeling that Eden might be mafia so I don't want to listen to him, but also ahs made a pretty solid case against mysterymeat.... But then again they could be a scum team trying to lynch him.
But right now I just want to know why tamburini seems to be considered by everyone to be 100% the vigi when he has done nothing to prove that, he didn't shoot or anything, I think it's possible he was never roleblocked too. Here's an scenario that's, I think, possible, he's scum with meat and claim he was roleblocked night 1 then meat claims he was roleblocked night 2 but none of that actually happened, the roleblock night 1 on tamburini was to make it seems like he was the vigi but he couldn't shoot and the one night 2 was because they were concerned meat was suspicious and we might lynch him so that by making it seems like he was roleblocked by mafia, he wouldn't be a suspect, though clearly that didn't work. Today they have been clearing each other pretty hard and tamburini in both mornings acted really weirdly, asking me why I was alive then asking who was roleblocked before saying if he was roleblocked or not is really strange behavior for a supposedly confirmed town. The only flaw I can see with that plan at first look is the vigi claim was really risky if you're not actually the vigi, maybe he just got lucky and there wasn't a vigi this game.
Anyways, I didn't analyze this thing fully, just something that randomly popped in my head, why is nobody considering the possibility that he isn't vigi? Why didn't they kill him if he's vigi? Why wouldn't he shoot if he's vigi?
Its good your thinking about the game but in all reality would you rather kill the vigi or would you go for a role that could give out more information like parity cop?
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On May 08 2014 00:30 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2014 00:13 Yell0w wrote:
There isn't a lot of time left and I'm not convinced any of the lynch target right now are mafia, I have this gut feeling that Eden might be mafia so I don't want to listen to him, but also ahs made a pretty solid case against mysterymeat.... But then again they could be a scum team trying to lynch him.
But right now I just want to know why tamburini seems to be considered by everyone to be 100% the vigi when he has done nothing to prove that, he didn't shoot or anything, I think it's possible he was never roleblocked too. Here's an scenario that's, I think, possible, he's scum with meat and claim he was roleblocked night 1 then meat claims he was roleblocked night 2 but none of that actually happened, the roleblock night 1 on tamburini was to make it seems like he was the vigi but he couldn't shoot and the one night 2 was because they were concerned meat was suspicious and we might lynch him so that by making it seems like he was roleblocked by mafia, he wouldn't be a suspect, though clearly that didn't work. Today they have been clearing each other pretty hard and tamburini in both mornings acted really weirdly, asking me why I was alive then asking who was roleblocked before saying if he was roleblocked or not is really strange behavior for a supposedly confirmed town. The only flaw I can see with that plan at first look is the vigi claim was really risky if you're not actually the vigi, maybe he just got lucky and there wasn't a vigi this game.
Anyways, I didn't analyze this thing fully, just something that randomly popped in my head, why is nobody considering the possibility that he isn't vigi? Why didn't they kill him if he's vigi? Why wouldn't he shoot if he's vigi? Its good your thinking about the game but in all reality would you rather kill the vigi or would you go for a role that could give out more information like parity cop?
Well if I was mafia, I would definitely have killed you or roleblocked you twice a row since you wanted to shoot me, which leads me to believe that if you are the vigi, you probably didn't suspect a mafia at all so they see you as harmless.
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Thats why I think your probably like 85% town
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Ok guys, I got an exam during lynch-time, so I have to make my vote now. It's kind of a bw vote on Meat, but all of the points raised on him seem valid enough for me.
1.) His claiming to be roleblocked. Hell, it might be true or not, idk. But I can't see a reason why mafia would choose to roleblock Meat. I think it's a good likelihood that mafia forgoed roleblocking so Meat could claim and seem townie, as some of you guys said.
2.) His reasoning for Ritoky's lynch was that Ritoky didn't like me - so that's why he's dead now. That sounds exactly like the thing mafia would say. I was already suspicious for a lot of people, and I think Meat wanted to lynch me as an easy lynch by using this justification. The problem is that Ritoky was seen as town by most people, and that's why he was killed most likely. Mafia probably thought Bunnies would be protected, so they chose the next best target, Ritoky. Eden had some suspicion on him, so he wasn't a likely target either. The justification that Meat gave for Ritoky's lynch either wasn't very thought out, or was mafia play.
3.) Meat voted for me without even rebutting or defending ANYTHING I said about Ritoky's situation in the previous post. If he doesn't care to defend himself or just even share his thought process, I can't be convinced he's not mafia trying really hard to lynch me as his target and ignoring everything I say.
##VOTE: MysteryMeat1
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
On May 08 2014 00:13 Yell0w wrote:
There isn't a lot of time left and I'm not convinced any of the lynch target right now are mafia, I have this gut feeling that Eden might be mafia so I don't want to listen to him, but also ahs made a pretty solid case against mysterymeat.... But then again they could be a scum team trying to lynch him.
But right now I just want to know why tamburini seems to be considered by everyone to be 100% the vigi when he has done nothing to prove that, he didn't shoot or anything, I think it's possible he was never roleblocked too. Here's an scenario that's, I think, possible, he's scum with meat and claim he was roleblocked night 1 then meat claims he was roleblocked night 2 but none of that actually happened, the roleblock night 1 on tamburini was to make it seems like he was the vigi but he couldn't shoot and the one night 2 was because they were concerned meat was suspicious and we might lynch him so that by making it seems like he was roleblocked by mafia, he wouldn't be a suspect, though clearly that didn't work. Today they have been clearing each other pretty hard and tamburini in both mornings acted really weirdly, asking me why I was alive then asking who was roleblocked before saying if he was roleblocked or not is really strange behavior for a supposedly confirmed town. The only flaw I can see with that plan at first look is the vigi claim was really risky if you're not actually the vigi, maybe he just got lucky and there wasn't a vigi this game.
Anyways, I didn't analyze this thing fully, just something that randomly popped in my head, why is nobody considering the possibility that he isn't vigi? Why didn't they kill him if he's vigi? Why wouldn't he shoot if he's vigi?
As we've deduced that there is no town roleblocker, I think it's very unlikely there's no vig either. If mtamburini isn't the vig, then the real one would have spoken up by now. mtamburini not shooting you last night was ultimately the correct move. He recognised that if there were 4 Mafia, and he shot incorrectly, we would instantly lose.
I wouldn't have killed mtamburini immediately either. Just block him. mtamburini doesn't get to prove himself, he claims roleblock which town has to take with a grain of salt, and it just adds to the confusion. Meanwhile, it frees mafia to kill someone else.
I'm not discounting the possibility that mtamburini pulled off an incredibly audacious claim in the hopes that there was no other vigi. Even if he did it to try and bait the other vigi out, that wouldn't have worked as the vigi could just have quietly shot him during night 1. It's a possibility, but if it's true then well played to him. We're too far gone at this stage to lynch him imo and there are far better candidates.
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...
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@Yellow, tam us 100% vigi, there have been no counterclaims and due to flips, we can see a vigi hasnt died. Its also super risky to claim a role d1 since no one has died. Tam is vigi. Also im about to get bandwagoned soo hard. My reasoning is sound which is why they are trying to lynch me. I switched my vote from epishade to dfs. Both are 100% mafia but people would be more willing to vote for dfs.
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Am I the only one that sees the logic behind why meat must be town here based on what has been going on at night!!!!!!
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
On May 08 2014 01:49 mtamburini wrote:
Am I the only one that sees the logic behind why meat must be town here based on what has been going on at night!!!!!!
Can you flesh it out for those of us who can't see the logic?
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@epishade, your obviously scum
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=956&topic_id=447955
If you think Eden is scum, why are you voting for the person that eden votes for in MYLO, if eden is scum then he isn't going to vote for another scum... But since your scum your reasoning will be to clear me as town or something.
You also say that you might give your reads on ahs if you had time, only to post an hour later with nothing about him.
I would also say my reasoning for ritoky's death was thought out, and that it seems really scummy that you would sweep it under the rug like that.
I also don't get your reasoning on eden,
You told everyone he was scum, he made even more moves you disagree with such as asking for tam's shot during the night, and then suddenly you say that you are going to hold off on eden and that you will decide later whether he is town or not?!?!?
Your whole entire town play this game has just been a series of fake pressures and being incredibly inconsistent with your claims on whose town and whose mafia. In fact you only call out people who are town to place them under suspicion. I appluad your efforts, but when it comes to people who i know are mafia like ahs, you say you will post your thoughts and then never talk about them again.
I'm soo coninced epi is mafia, I switched my vote from epi to dfs, but im just going to switch it back to epi.
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Vote (slave) count:
MysteryMeat1 (3): Eden1892, ahswtini, Epishade
dfs (0): MysteryMeat1
dravernor (1): 27ninjabunnies
Epishade (1): MysteryMeat1, MysteryMeat1
Not voting (4): mtamburini, Yell0w, dfs, dravernor
Currently, MysteryMeat1 is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Wednesday, May 07 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
Voting is mandatory!
+ Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] +VOTE: MysteryMeat1 voted epishade (Epishade) ( post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted MysteryMeat1 ( post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies voted Dravernor (dravernor) ( post) VOTE: ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 ( post) VOTE: Epishade voted MysteryMeat1 ( post) VOTE: MysteryMeat1 unvoted Epishade ( post) VOTE: MysteryMeat1 voted dfs ( post) VOTE: MysteryMeat1 unvoted dfs ( post) VOTE: MysteryMeat1 voted Epishade ( post)
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wow ahs, voting for me in the thread, but not voting for me here... obvious mafia is obvious
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Yeah mystery is not the kill here today. If he was actually roleblocked, we are lynching town.
So fr off the table today we have me, tamburini, and mystery.
So unvote him, or I vote you.
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So I'm not convinced tamburini is the vigi, but it seems nobody is gonna agree with me so fine, but I'm not going to vote against meat, especially since I don't trust Eden and he started the vote against meat. I won't vote agaisnt bunnies either, I don't think Epishade is mafia, I don't think a vote against Eden is going to lead to a lynch because people think he's town and I don't have time to make an argument against him right now, especially since it's more of a gut feeling than anything, so of the rest, I think the most suspicious is dravernor so that's who I'm gonna vote. I just don't want to waste my vote on Eden, but if someone else vote against him I might follow.
##Vote: dravernor
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guys i would rather vote dfs then dravernor
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Like i know drav is mafia, but confirmed for me is epi, ahs, and dfs. I think dfs is a power role for mafia so i would like to lynch him and see if we can get vigi a shot tonight
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On May 08 2014 02:39 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Yeah mystery is not the kill here today. If he was actually roleblocked, we are lynching town.
So fr off the table today we have me, tamburini, and mystery.
So unvote him, or I vote you.
I don't agree at all that meat should be off the table for the roleblock claim; his roleblock claim is unfalsifiable and I don't buy the logic explaining how it's legit.
But I'm worried about the fact that meat picked up momentum like he did. His direct answers to me weren't satisfactory, but I also don't feel like they made the case against him open-and-shut, either, and I think meat's actions since then have been townie enough to warrant looking at someone else.
POE thought process fmpov:
- Eden town
- tambo town, un-cc'd vig, granted that he hasn't proven it by his own actions yet but I'm comfortable letting it stand nonetheless because I don't think he's mafia
- bunnies town, consistently been trying to figure things out from the beginning
- Epishade is trying to figure things out and has been the whole phase and going back to the previous one, town
- meat's started to put in some real effort to do the same, his body of work prior to today is suspect but he's still doing more to find mafia than the rest of the people to be listed
- dfs's posting is sparse but when he does post he's trying to make sense of the game state
- ashwtini wants meat and dfs out
- dravernor has no suspects or reads posted RIP
So the first thing I see is that I think we have three not four people on the scumteam. dravernor is pretty obvious and is getting my vote unless some good reads get posted fast. ashwtini I think is also pretty straightforward, and ashwtini hard-pushing meat and soft-pushing dfs makes me think meat is town and dfs is scum.
But... where from there? ashwtini/dravernor/dfs makes three. I think that trio makes Epishade look bad in conjunction with the n2 kill (ritoky was really solid on Epishade being scum), and of my four solid town reads above Epishade is the lowest, but I think independent of associations Epishade looks good. Maybe ashwtini is busing both teammates? That actually does fit the profile of this mafia; when all the drivers are clear town, the passengers are usually scum, and passive mafia tend to bus for temporary town credit rather than attempt to shield teammates from lynches by pushing other lynches. In that case it's meat AND dfs, but then meat is busing all three of his teammates in his last post...
...while voting for the leftover townie. Actually, this theory makes some sense. But it's the only plausible 4-man team I can see, so if we can rule it out then we know we have a mislynch left and we're a lot better able to think strategically about the lynch.
Someone tell me why it can't be meat/ahs/dravernor/dfs here, I want to be convinced and it'd take a lot of busing to be true but if we're at LYLO that's not really a point against it.
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Lol I forgot Yell0w completely
Disregard the above, need to rethink
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Ya i would bus all of my teamates which is funny cause im the one who started pushing on them really hard today, when we could have probably gotten you lynched.
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POE thought process fmpov:
- Eden town
- tambo town, un-cc'd vig, granted that he hasn't proven it by his own actions yet but I'm comfortable letting it stand nonetheless because I don't think he's mafia
- bunnies town, consistently been trying to figure things out from the beginning
- Epishade is trying to figure things out and has been the whole phase and going back to the previous one, town
- meat's started to put in some real effort to do the same, his body of work prior to today is suspect but he's still doing more to find mafia than the rest of the people to be listed
- dfs's posting is sparse but when he does post he's trying to make sense of the game state
- ashwtini wants meat and dfs out
- dravernor has no suspects or reads posted RIP
- Yell0w is top-scum-reading me but won't make an effort to make a case on me, says his top scum read is just a gut feeling -- that's code for "not having a scum read" in my book
That makes a lot more sense to me, none of the bottom three are associating with one another in any significant way, only one of them (ashwtini) has made anything resembling a serious effort to get one of their nominal suspects lynched. Of them dravernor's got the most traction, I'll take that today.
As for a possible fourth, again, ashwtini implicates dfs, but I think just those three at the bottom is most likely. I'll worry about dfs if we kill the bottom three and the game isn't over yet.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: dravernor
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EPT
