EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 3
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't really call people "clear" unless I feel they are proven town. Rather, I will just comment on who I don't want to lynch today, some of that is because people seem townie. I do not think I would not lynch the following players today: bunnies: I thought the early push on yell0w was fine, and the subsequent questions on Epishade and mtamburini felt like things I would ask. Responses seem good, and I like that she is reading other posts to try to clarify things. Feel good about her as town right now, not a d1 lynch for me. sqrt: Yeah, you're in this one buddy  - my concern on your play is that although you have developed some players as potential scumreads, I don't see you strongly pushing on those players yet. However, you've been active in the game, and responsive. So, you are not a lynch for me day 1. That said, some of your reads are still weird to me.I thought someone asked this but rereading I was confused- @sqrt: How did you see meat as town? I feel like he posted next to nothing when you read him Epishade: Epishade is less town to me than sqrt or bunnies, but right now I don't think I would want to lynch him. I felt his early defense was reasonable... I feel he focused a little too much time on yell0w, but it seemed fine given that the thread has given so much attention to yell0w. Moving forward, I'd like to see epishade focus tamburini more if tamburini is his highest scumread, I may reevaluate based on how he goes.. I can't say I have a well-based townread on other players yet. I'll try to take a better look at dfs/ritoky/ashwtini/sweetfrost - these players have given some posts but not enough to stick out in my mind beyond that (in contrast to other players have given posts that I know are insufficient to give reads like meat). I think when I read ritoky I felt good about his posts (even though he scumread epishade), but I am getting a little too sleepy to adequately think through them. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 30 2014 14:13 27ninjabunnies wrote: @Amiko So are you saying he is scummy for calling me town, even if I didn't fully answer his question? I'm actually not entirely sure where this conversation stemmed from, or where you are trying to go with this questioning. Maybe I have missed something from your posts, and I apologize. It is pretty late, and I shall be hitting the bed soon. I know tomorrow, we need to make a lynch. Hopefully we will see more posts from the lurkers. As of now, I'll try and post here and there if need be. Yes - that was one of the two points I raised on him earlier (the other was regarding his voting). It was important for me to understand you on this because if you had answered Eden fully, it would mean one of my points was invalid (and make me feel better about Eden). Anyway, Eden did post a response to it so I'm content to move to other points for now, I think I need to go through his case on yell0w but I would like to see mtamburini to post on it, first. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 30 2014 14:40 Yell0w wrote: @amiko So who are your scumreads? Is it still me and Eden? Yes, though I'd say sweetfrost is more scummy and you are less scummy than the last time I mentioned it. My feelings on Eden/mtamburini depend a little on mtamburini's reads on Eden, so I can get back to you on that maybe. I am somewhat willing to vote off MysteryMeat... if I knew we had a vigilante, I'd much prefer him as a vigi-shot to a lynch, though. I am okay with him dying because if he's following the thread and has nothing to comment on, I think he is not useful. There's certainly things to talk about - there has been suspicion on quite a few players and he hasn't weighed in. I'd prefer a vig-shot him to lynching just because I think lynching sweetfrost/yell0w/eden is more likely to give information (which might help inform town night actions). I don't know if we don't have a vigilante, though, so lynching him is acceptable to me, mostly as a policy lynch. I haven't given adequate time to dfs/ritoky/ashwtini/dravernor so that'll be my goal for tomorrow, I think. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On April 30 2014 14:41 Eden1892 wrote: I didn't phrase that as precisely as I'd have liked. What I meant is that you were already suspecting him, and so your test was designed with an innate bias toward finding him suspicious. It's a moot point now, obviously I found Yell0w suspicious anyway in the end and I'm satisfied with your play for the moment. Amiko, I like the precision of your questions, but where are they going? I can give examples: - I asked sqrt about his prior game because I figured if he was looking at his prior game, it might be to copy his town meta. - I asked sqrt about his reads on epishade and meat because I felt he didn't provide an adequate explanation for those reads so I want to see if he has one. I felt sqrt didn't provide much justifications for his reads in his prior games and it was one reason he got mislynched, so I want to ensure I question him on his reads to understand his play better. - I asked mtamburini about leadership qualities to see if he would follow through with the descriptions he gave through the game. Not likely to be something worth revisiting for a day or two - I asked mtamburini to comment on your case on yell0w because I have some questions on mtamburini's alignment and the two of you have indirect but similar plays this game when it pertains to yell0w. - I asked bunnies about whether town needs a leader because she knows tamburini and commented on it, and (personally) I feel leaders are more important in video/in-person mafia where only one person can talk at a time. - I asked yell0w about his thoughts on ninjabunnies to follow up on his confusion re: her push onto him. Initially he suggested she was scum, but when I pushed him he seemed to back away and say he wasn't sure, it could be town or scum. I think he did the same thing with you, Eden, I'd have to check to make sure. etc etc. Some questions are to get people I feel aren't talking into the game (as with questions to ashwtini and sweetfrost) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Dravenor hasn’t posted much and I feel like he has some weird comments. A few things I would highlight as strange comments: On April 29 2014 14:18 dravernor wrote: I think we've been off to a pretty aggressive start already tbh. I now think I am going to be useless at this game because everyone and no-one looks scummy. I think the top two suspects here in my eyes are Epishade and 27ninjabunnies as they have been pressing and deflecting the most for what looks like an early lynch. But, the game is still young and I don't really know many of you yet, so I could be reading wrong completely. On April 30 2014 01:26 dravernor wrote: This all seems a bit of a mess and confusing. So many accusations flying around. I still don't see anything as overly suspicious behaviour, and it kinda scares me because someone here is hiding. My suspicion of Epishade and bunnies still stands though – They both seem overly aggressive/defensive, which may actually be a deliberate ploy to make each other both look like townies. As you can see sqrt has already cleared them form his list, and Yell0w too. I'd actually like some clarification on this please: (cut) The bolded sections are double-talk. Do these players look scummy, or do they not look scummy? Are these players aggressive, or are they defensive? I don't like these comments because they feel noncommittal and meaningless. He does give reads on Epishade and ninjabunnies, however, which makes the posts a little better. I do disagree with those reads, but dravenor made them earlier in the game so I don't find his view on them as different to be particularly suspicious. He didn’t followup on his read of Eden as he had indicated. Altogether Dravenor hasn’t commented enough that I can make much more of his posts than that. @dravenor: We need you to weigh in on some of the prevailing arguments. Obviously I care about your thoughts on Eden, but I think we should start consolidating a little. So, please talk about yell0w and mtamburini and the points made on the two of them. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
This one is pretty short. So far I like dfs' posts. I don't agree with dfs seeing sqrt as scummy from sqrt's reads. But I think that's a reasonable feeling for dfs to have. I don't know sqrt's scum play yet (I've only seen him play town) but I feel like in his prior games he posted some reads that were not very well explained and seemed confusing even though he was town. It'd be a mistake to give him a free pass, but it is something I will value a little less in evaluating sqrt. That said, I feel like without having read sqrt's prior games that feeling is legitimate so I like dfs for his suspicion of sqrt. Thinking through this, I feel a little bit better on SweetFrost who had a similar response to sqrt's reads. I still feel SweetFrost's explanation when voting for sqrt (numerous, short, prodding posts) is weird, though, since those qualities don't strike me as scum indicative. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I still want to comment on Eden's case on yell0w but I'd like to see mtamburini's response to it first. If anyone is in thread and doesn't know what to talk about, I think a good focus for now is yell0w/mtamburini. I'd also like people voting for mtamburini to give thoughts on this post I made earlier ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=25#483 ) which is why I don't feel mtamburini's push on yell0w was that scummy. If you think mtamburini is scum then give me some responses and maybe you'll convince me or at least help me read you better. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
---------------- ---------------- First, I want to address timing of vigi claims and why I don't like mtamburini's claim. This is Second, I want to address looking at tamburini as vigilante or serial killer (probably another post) ---------------- ---------------- I agree with most of Eden’s points here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#543) and essentially agree that mtamburini should not have claimed vigilante when he did. I don’t entirely agree with Eden's the first point - if mtamburini draws a mafia roleblock, it at least frees up other blue roles to perform night actions, but that isn't too important Second, I don't really like the claim because he claimed before defending himself. I'd have liked to see him push back more on the pressure on him. At the very least, shouldn't mtamburini be responding to the people putting pressure on him and seeing how they respond to determine if their pressure is legitimate or from a scum mindset? Third, mtamburini's explanation for revealing isn't that applicable to this game. On May 01 2014 07:18 mtamburini wrote: Its common practice in the video mafia games that I play in the Vigilante claims and lets everyone know that they will be shooting in case they die in the night and 2 kills happen instead of 1 so there is no confusion the next day ( we usually play with 2 kp for mafia until there is 2 of them left with no flips). In this game, mafia KP is always one. So if we see 2 KP, we have no doubt/confusion that a kill is coming from a vigilante or serial killer. In other words, this explanation makes sense in the video games, but it doesn't fit in this game. A quick note on claiming targets If you are a vig, I think it's often a good idea to only reveal who you are shooting shortly before night ends. If you post when the deadline hits 10 seconds or so, it denies scum the opportunity to respond to who you will kill (because their night actions are also time-limited). If we take tamburini as an example: he indicated he plans to shoot yell0w. This information could help town in limited situations (for instance, if yell0w is a blue role, maybe he claims it to avoid the shot, saving a town blue). But, it’s probably more likely to help mafia… if yell0w is mafia (which mafia knows), they have a higher incentive to try to lynch mtamburini today. If mafia has a roleblock, they can use it on mtamburini if yell0w is scum, or let mtamburini shoot yell0w if they know yell0w is town. Now, it’s fine if mtamburini is just being tricky and will actually shoot someone else, but it’s hard to really say much on WIFOM plays so let’s leave it at that. Even if that is his plan, I think it helps town for him to claim his actual shot shortly before the night ends so if the person dies we have a better idea where KP is coming from. -- That said, I do think it's good that mtamburini claimed early enough that we can respond to it and we get to see who wants to lynch him and who doesn't. I feel it's reasonable to think if yell0w is mafia, his teammates may be more likely to want to lynch mtamburini today; If yell0w is town, mafia is less likely to want to lynch mtamburini today. We can't necessarily expect mafia to be uniform on this, but it's something to think about if we see a flip on yell0w/mtamburini. --------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------- Questions: @mtamburini: If you are alive tonight, my preference is that you post just before the night-action deadline and indicate who you will target (confirming that you are killing yell0w or revealing your actual target). Also, since this pertains to timing a little- On April 10 2014 03:10 27ninjabunnies wrote: I totally agree. Claiming a role should be done at the last moment possible. So you immediately start with day in this setup? Interesting @ninjabunnies: This was a pregame post so I won't put much emphasis on it, but I would like to ask you this: what do you think of the timing of mtamburini's claim? @ninjabunnies: As a video mafia player with mtamburini, what do you think of mtamburini's explanation regarding claiming your target? --- I’ll comment in a few minutes on serial killer vs. mafia, with particular attention to Eden’s post here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#551 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So this is more of the reason I don’t want to lynch mtamburini today. I think Eden makes some good points in his post here ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#551 ) but is missing what I feel is the central difference between SK and Vigi. I think a serial killer does not want to appear that towny. If a serial killer is a good town leader, mafia probably kills the SK. If a serial killer catches mafia, mafia probably kills the SK. Given that, I don’t see mtamburini’s actions as strongly indicative of SK instead of vigilante. Specifically: - I don’t think a serial killer would start the game with a declaration of town leadership – this draws attention to himself when he should want to stay on the sidelines. - I don’t think a serial killer would put pressure on yell0w when people were starting to move away from him. - I don’t see why a serial killer would claim vigilante so quickly - mafia may reasonably believe he is a vigilante and shoot him. --------- So my feeling is: I don’t really feel mtamburini’s claim or play is great vigilante play; But, I also don’t really feel like it’s great serial killer play. Admittedly, I don’t think we are likely to have much amount of information tomorrow about mtamburini’s role (unless he gets killed). But, remember that whether you feel tamburini is vigilante OR whether you feel tamburini is serial killer, scum doesn’t know know which role it is, either. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On May 01 2014 11:51 Eden1892 wrote: Town: I want to kill the serial killer and the mafia if I believe both to be in the game. I think mtamburini is fakeclaiming as serial killer because his claim only makes sense in the scenario I described in my big post. He's just making himself the n1 kill if he's actually the vigilante, which is colossally stupid. It's better for me to kill the serial killer over a mafia because removing the serial killer takes away 1 of the 2 anti-town kp. If I killed, say, Yell0w and he flipped scum, we've caught a mafia, but we're equally close to winning (as in either case we've killed 1 anti-town player), and we still have 2 anti-town kp instead of one to deal with. The serial killer is always the better kill. @Eden1892: I agree with you generally, this doesn't make sense to me given mtamburini's preferences. Please answer this: Why is the serial killer a better lynch when the serial killer seems to want to shoot yell0w, who you think is mafia? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@ritoky: What are your current feelings on SweetFrost? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@dfs You will probably be around before lynch since I think you haven't voted yet. Could you comment on sweetfrost? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If tamburini is the serial killer, he still has to play as a vigilante. If mtamburini doesn't shoot at yell0w, his play is strongly inconsistent since he has basically tunnelled yell0w the whole game. His best chance at passing as vig is shooting yell0w. If he shoots someone else and claims WIFOM then it is very suspicious (well... if he kills a mafia that isn't yell0w, that's not so bad). While mtamburini hasn't stated straight out that he will kill yell0w, I think that's the only reasonable person he can be referring to with his target with 85% certainty comment. For one, I don't think it would refer to anyone other than who he is voting for. Even if it did, it would be pretty awful to have that much confidence in someone as scum and not bring the person up as a lynch candidate. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Strongest point for Sweetfrost's is probably on reads, which have been contrary to most other players' views and not well explained. The initial suspicion of yell0w seemed fine, but when she says she sees either yell0w or bunnies as scum but not both, it's hard for me to see how she seem to see one as more persuasive than the other. The later vote on sqrt feels underevaluated. The paragraph above has been discussed before, but there is more to support a lynch on sweetfrost. I think Sweetfrost is a suspicious with regard to epishade/ritoky interactions. Sweetfrost clears ritoky for his posting style. That doesn't strike me as that unusual - ritoky had just presented reads that I felt were fairly clearly written. But, > Ritoky reads sqrt read as unusual/odd/difficult to read. Sweetfrost sees sqrt as scum. > Ritoky suspected Epishade. However, when ninjabunnies asked Sweetfrost about epishade being scummy, Sweet disagreed/didn't trust ninjabunnies' (gut)read of epishade as scummy. > Ritoky leaned town on bunnies, and odd on yell0w. Sweetfrost seems to see one of the two (but not both) as scum. This isn't totally inconsistent, but you'd think agreeing would mean considering yell0w the more likely scum. Sweet hasn't talked about many players, so there's not much more to compare. But, for the people she does comment on, it seems suspicious that her Sweetfrost's actions don't seem very aligned with ritoky's reads, which Sweet liked. Basically, I would expect agreement from SweetFrost on some reads, or think SweetFrost would pursue/question Ritoky's scumreads. Since we don't get much of either, looks bad. ##Vote: SweetFrost I do think there is a weak point in a case on SweetFrost - I will probably post it when I get back from lunch. It's better to hold onto for the moment. --- Two side notes: (1) Mysterymeat has given almost no contribution, but I don't see a lynch on him as useful. I would be okay with his lynch as a general lurker policy lynch, but it feels a little unfair - if he is tempbanned, he can't post here so he can't defend himself, can't roleclaim, etc. However, do we actually know when he can post again? If he's going to be unable to talk for any significant part of the game that's going to be an issue... + Show Spoiler + maybe we could get cavalinho to /replace so we could lynch him instead. (2) @all: In the next few hours, votes need to be consolidated. Mafia probably have three or four votes they can use, so to have a significant chance of lynching mafia we need to have town votes move together. If votes are spread out, they are easily manipulated. If you think someone you are voting for is clearly mafia more than the other potential votes, make your case ASAP. But, you need to move to the major wagons and sooner is better. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Also I thought he was straightforward on shooting yell0w, but as his post just now indicates he's got more than one potential target I think your read on his post (not necessarily shooting yell0w) is probably correct. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I wanna write about mtamburini but I gotta grab lunch, sorry. I'll consider your points on lynching him more when I get back, I don't think you'll convince me but I do like the idea more given mtamburini's last post. @mtamburini: I'd like you to weigh in on an acceptable lynch who is not yell0w. | ||
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