EPTHappen to have time for this game, unlike the last one.
Newbie Mini Mafia LIV
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Happen to have time for this game, unlike the last one. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
Hopefully this won't be a ded gaem like the last newbie game. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 17 2014 18:23 Eden1892 wrote: I'll make sure it isn't. I will hold you to thissss~ | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 18 2014 03:09 Amiko wrote: Everyone remember to post a ton of short content-free posts, ideally with pictures of sheep herders and sheep dogs, that way our post count will be high enough everyone will knows we are really good at this game. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/HvTkmn1.jpg) oopsno u posting irrelevant memes is mafia talk here, keep it related to the gaem + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Y5PgjQr.jpg) | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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HILLBILLIES NOOOooOooo0 im scurred, hold me + Show Spoiler + alternately i am offendered by the use of such a derogative term for proud rural dwelling white folk with so many negative connotations, pls be more politically correct in your villains. like nazis, or killer robits from da future. SKYNET | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 25 2014 07:41 Balla24 wrote: I believe Lord Tolkien just claimed mafia everybody! Hillbillies aren't the enemy here! ##vote Lord Tolkien fk you im no mafia bish #vote Balla24 ...or at least, I don't know if I am yet STILL | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 25 2014 11:56 Cavalinho wrote: Worst mafia player on TL here. lies, that would be me ill fite you if you say otherwise | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 07:06 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I just went 6-3 as rogue on arena, so that's pretty good. rogue has the best winrate in arena. fking meta sheep. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
http://hearthstats.net/reports/jan/index.html Check and mate. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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#vote sqrtofneg1 because rogues annoy me so | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 08:06 OnceKing wrote: Aha. Sqrt with the real dirt and LT lying. Lynch all liars! Therefore, ##VOTE Lord Tolkien technically we're both right. My renewed OK scum sense is tingling. #unvote sqrtofneg1 [b]# vote OnceKing | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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#vote OnceKing | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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No reason to let them lurk for free. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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OnceKing sounds town as all fk. I was originally suspicious of his initial "serious" post due to OK's early Day 1 behavior versus early Day 1 LII newbie mafia game and was going to comment on it, but I re-read the old thread and reversed my initial opinion on it (originally thought it was inconsistent, but I reread his case on Amiko and it didn't mention the lurker lynch policy). He's been pushing town towards active discussion since then, asking for reads, and generally steering conversation towards positive goals, so he's establishing himself as town thus far. IAmRobik also feels town to me, though I still question why he feels OK's post is out of place given the context (unless it was scumbait, that was my first thought). The post is still useful pressure and discussion for town, though, and there is no reason for scum to be so forward, so early on in the day, especially with the possible game-states (no godfather game-state). And his posts subsequent read fairly town. Valenius is super town in my eyes, he's cleared for me. Pixelated is neutral or slightly scummy to me. Eden feels even more town for me. He's actively pushing the Cavalinho case and scumhunting aggressively in Day 1, while being the most active contributor to the thread thus far. Clearest town poster in my mind, as he's giving reasoned arguments here. Cavalinho sounds...well, aggressive in all his posts. And he's OMGUSing without presenting a case, period. But given his past game behavior, he also does this when he's town so I'm not sure if my scrumread on him is wrong. Like, this is almost a repeat of LII Day 1 in terms of the Cavalinho lynch progression, however without any substance from him. I'm leaving him as possible scum atm tho I'm confused by it. Maybe the most scummiest read I have, even his past town play aside. Like I'll answer your question when you answer mine. and No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question. should mark him as clear scum, but...might just be his playstyle.I also happen to think his OMGUS vote is him trying to look innocent because he's aware of his meta (not the post beforehand he noted that Robik townread him in a previous game because he OMGUS'd then), but that can go either way. What's telling is that he fails to develop his vote, he just puts it down and insists it'll be me or him today. That's dumb and not what a town player should be doing. This is actually a strong analysis of what I was trying to say. You know what, Cavalinho isn't angry and pissed off enough to have the righteous indignation like his LII newbie game, nor still tries to contribute. Or hell, contribute an actual case for his OMGUSing. sqrtofneg1 has thus far been fairly disconcerting to me. I indulged him with the Hearthstone convo, and I think that's irrelevant to the thread thus far. It was a fair shot at getting something going, if inflating his filter/post. After the first actual serious post to pop up Day 1 (the OK policy lynch), he posted this Fun fact: I've been mafia once, only once, in my fair amount of irl games. and didn't respond to the looming topic at hand, then had a sleep post. Like, its non-contributive lurking at best. There was definitely things available to comment on at the time of his sleep post. Hell, by the time of that post, IAmRobik had already made his wtf post about OnceKing's lynch policy post. It piggybacks off IAmRobik's joke posts, but he at least follows up with substance after there's clearly something to respond to. He still has time to become an active contributor, but seems to be a scum lurker to me. Probably my primary lynch target today because I'm still fking confused by the signals given off by Cavalinho's playstyle and posting patterns.On March 26 2014 13:31 IAmRobik wrote: RE: Sqrt In what world does a mafia come into the game and start talking to himself for 10 posts? Mafia has all the reason in the world to sit back and not do shit and contribute when something is happening and then push some random town who is on the chopping blocks. I don't give a damn if it was 10 posts of filler about how he's doing today and how his HS run was going. The exact same reason you were pushing on OK for: because it's good to make the appearance of contribution. idgaf about the HS posts too much, but the fact he continued the joke posting and made a sleep post before contributing anything useful makes me unhappy. Quick point to RolandJarvis before the plunge, that was a continued joke post. I was jokingly referencing the LII newbie game where I was OMGUSing OK hard for focusing on me Day 1 (mostly for some inconsistencies in his case). Posted that and the correction right as OK was posting the policy lynch post (note the policy lynch post being nestled between that post and the edit), which is the first serious post of the game, which should have been a clue. I'm overall happy with your contribution, however, and I would recommend you read the LII newbie game, since quite a few of the players here were in that game (and should give you a general idea of our playstyles as town (I think all of us present played as town that game), so you can get a feel for us. You voiced the concern about OK only voicing his read on IAmRobik, but his playstyle is (at least, going off his LII and stated gameplay) to only give his strongest reads. So this isn't inconsistent or scummy for me, just how he plays. Just like how Cavalinho still confuses the fk out of me. Or you might have and the mistaken use of punctuation in the post confused you. Overall, I'm quite happy with the way this thread activity has been. no ded gaem Also, my sleep schedule is fked up, so I may be responding at odd times such as this. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I think between you and Eden, you've put up a very convincing case. And he clearly isn't pissed off enough about the whole lynching affair. There hasn't been a swear word or insult yet! + Show Spoiler +  At this stage my top scum reads are sqrt (I think he was in the LIII game, so I need to read that to gauge him fully), and Cavalinho. To both Cavalinho and sqrt, who do you think is scum? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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- Reads on Valenius and Pixalated. ...how? Valenius asked some good questions to develop OnceKing's policy, but that's all. Certainly a good start but not nearly enough to declare him "super town" or "cleared." Especially in light of the fact that he said Pixalated is neutral-to-scummy... I have Pixalated as neutral-to-town if anything, but to be honest they've done virtually the same thing here (not post much, make solid contributions where they did). There's a lack of explanation for either read, which on its own doesn't say much, but... ZzZ. I knew I should've tried posting that part some other time. Or maybe I should've approached it with more subtlety (see: any subtlety at all). Was trying to scumbait with it when questioning Cavalinho and sqrt. Was trying to see if they would piggyback off of it. Went back and deleted those sections specifically to try. My true reads: Valenius leans town at best. I'm hesitant to call him anything at this stage of the game, when his only post is at best asking for a PAINFULLY obvious clarification on a policy. Or in other words, in line with what everyone else has said. Pixelated is leaning town. He's had more posts and has given reads on sqrt and Valenius, but the main crux of their points have been similar to what OK and others in the thread have said (not much to be said this early into the game, however). He was however the first to defend OK's post (outside of OK), and rightly so. If we're continuing with the Cavalinho lynch, it is...unlikely for them to simultaneously bandwagon on a possible lynch and defend the person in question. - His position on Cavalinho is inconsistently soft wrt the rest of his list. Notice the "almost" above -- the one big exception is the guy that I personally think is obviously scum. He does some lip service to the idea (e.g. "these things should mark him clear scum"), but then handwaves every point he raises for Cavalinho on a shaky meta argument (e.g. "mark him as clear scum, but... might just be his playstyle). He says Cavalinho is "maybe the most scummiest read he has"*, but then declares sqrt his "probable" lynch target today. There's a lot of waffling on Cavalinho that isn't present with the others. (PREVIEW EDIT: Even concedes the case is strong, but still has sqrt as his top suspect. p l s) This is again going off of my experience with Cavalinho in LII, though the more you prod, the more I think you may be right about me softballing Cavalinho. I may be trying to discern too much off meta, and am letting how LII Day 1 went color my view of the game and his (pretty scummy) actions too much. - His rationale for sqrt is weak. Of a handful of inactives so far he's singling out one post of sqrt's (the "I've never drawn mafia" post) as the thing that's so disconcerting to him? Already zeroed in on sqrt being a scum lurker and wants to lynch him over aforesaid "maybe most scummiest read"*? That's just strange to me because nothing that sqrt has done has been alignment-indicative yet. As I EXPLICITLY note, it was posted AFTER the serious posting began, and AFTER IAmRobik's wtf on OK. The timestamp is key: if it were before that, and even OK's post, whatever. idgaf because that was part of the joke phase. That's what I find the most disconcerting of his posting, versus Valenius (whose post at least addressed something serious). - Preview edit point: That last question is such a softball! Ideal to ask your fake scum read and your scum buddy, terrible as town. Why wouldn't he ask about the things Cavalinho and sqrt are doing that makes them suspicious to him? My main issue with sqrt again is the timing of his post and decision to start lurking at that juncture, which makes me far more leery of him over Valenius. Look at the time stamps: 3.5 hours between OK's post and Valenius's question and his sleep post, 4 minutes between Robik's wtf post and his highlighted post, and 11 minutes between the post I highlighted and his sleep post. Certainly there's time to post...something serious? When we had clearly moved past the jokes votes? Putting him among my top scum reads is/was a means to pressure him into posting something of value and see if he posts anything that makes me pursue that line of inquiry. Similarly, the main thing which Cavalinho isn't doing is giving anything of substance in his posts. This is also why I was posting a full reads list, to see if there was any piggybacking going on. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 20:33 Pixalated wrote: What. If you are scumbaiting why are you revealing your trap before they even have the chance to fall for it? Since Eden explicitly called out for those reads (like I said, no subtlety) which defeats the whole purpose, and because I think Eden is correct in pointing out that this is not the right day for these kind of tarps. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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And thank you for reminding me ##: unvote OnceKing | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Actually can you explain this. You say you yourself feel suspicious of OK's first post, yet you yourself ask why Robik thinks its out of place??? I was initially suspicious because in LII he started a case against Amiko for a post which included a lurker lynching policy, and thought it was inconsistent. Upon reread, he had no qualms about the lynching policy and it was myself and Cavalinho who pointed out the policy, his focus was on the fluff. I should have clarified, you are correct. As I said, I have probably been trying to rely too much on meta. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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- The actual reads he's now giving. His Valenius read is in his own words "in line with what everyone else has said," and his Pixalated read is based entirely off of things that Pixalated said AFTER his "bait" post. In other words, he lied about what his Pixalated read was in his initial post because it's built entirely on posts made after the initial post. He cannot have read Pixalated town in his "bait" post because Pixalated commented on sqrt: Pixalated hadn't commented on sqrt yet! I don't like how he cleared both sqrt and val. Already explained why I don't feel that Val's questions make him town, and sqrt posting random stuff doesn't mean much. What this means about his alignment I'm not sure. Could be mafia trying to get cred by claiming that people are townie and having 'right' reads when they flip. This was again in line with what OnceKing said about sqrt and Robik's clearing of him based on sqrt's long string of multi-posts on HS. It was also right before he went to sleep. Yeah, it's not a constructive post. That's not automatically scum, especially in isolation. He had 3 and a half hours to respond after Valenius brought up his question, and 15 minutes for a something on the IAmRobik wtf post. And he made an irrelevant joke post long past the joking stage. This is why I find it suspicious, because there's AMPLE time to make something at least tangentially relevant instead of a useless throwaway line then another sleep post. Everything else I've already explained previously. You can disagree with my reasoning. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 21:13 Pixalated wrote: In that case why are you suspicious about Robik having the same reservations as you? You aren't answering the question. I'm now probably spending too much time talking about something that happened in another game, but I had confused his opposition to Amiko's fluff in his introduction post to an opposition to a lurker lynch policy, which would have been inconsistent. It was a suspicion based off meta, and something which I had misremembered. Robik's main argument is that he's just talking about lynching lurkers as opposed to actually doing it, and that he's speaking to the mechanics of it. You don't have to set that shit up with a post about how you want to go on quiet people. I disagree with that, as agreeing to a policy lynch as a group is still good in a newbie game, and given the purpose was to start a serious discussion. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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I read that post as a read. He states that sqrt shouldn't have been cleared so quickly as town for making that long stream of posts early on, and that sqrt is difficult to read because he posted nothing but random crap. I call that, broadly, a read. And it fit with what OnceKing said about sqrt (in regards to Robik's clearing of him). sqrt - jokes and one liners during RVS. Lots of 'em. Made no posts afterwards, yet. Mysteriously Robik's got a town read off of that. Where he got that read from. At this point we're debating semantics of what constitutes a read. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 21:39 Eden1892 wrote: No, what we're debating is whether to kill you or Cavalinho first. Ah, ignoring the rebuttal. ok, whatever you say. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 26 2014 22:04 Pixalated wrote: @LT I dont think you talked about this point that Eden brought up. If you can't give a sufficient explanation for this I think I would lynch you instead. If it was preplanned, why wasn't it directly after your first post? Why wait 20 minutes? Why did you have to go read RJ's thoughts on the Cav case before finishing your trap?? It took me awhile to realize to what you were referring to. The reads themselves would've been sufficient. I wanted to see if anyone else would parrot it, not just Cav and sqrt. The questions tacked on afterwards was done specifically in regards to Cav and sqrt as they solidified themselves in my mind as the scummiest players I'm reading, and mostly to encourage them to post something substantive so I can analyze (which is their main problems this turn). This was not an essential part of the scumbait. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Since I think most of the bases have been covered already: yes, it was a scumbait. I get less coherent in later posts due to REASONS, but the primary scumbait was the Valenius and Pixelated reads and broadly targeted at everyone. The Pixelated read is somewhat plausible of a bait, but the Valenius one was super fking obvious. Like, how the fk am I going to clear Valenius as town when he had ONE post, which is, in standard situations normal, and being one of the first stabs at substantive discussions slightly town leaning (for me). It's so terribly obvious to anyone who reads his filter, that I'm wondering why I felt the need to try and use him as a scumbait too. I was going to respond quicker to Roland's post on Cavalinho, but I was running myself in circles check something meta Cavalinho was referring to about why Robik was lynched in LII no time to quote the post, ("he was lynched because he was a strong player and he read me as town". He also read me as mafia that game and was wrong, and they also nightkilled him because they thought he was blue) but then I realized this was utterly irrelevant to anything pertinent, deleted it, and just finished my post. The questions were an effort to specifically encourage sqrt and Cavalinho to respond. I just used Valenius and Pixelated because they gave me the most neutral reads. On the five points Eden makes, to be clear if I didn't answer it this morning: 1) The bait was initially targeted at everyone, and is the original intent. The second post was delayed because of dead-end meta-analysis, but the refocusing onto Cavalinho and sqrt was done afterwards, correct. Won't argue this, and you can read it for what you want. 2) See above. Town can sheep, but sheeping still means they aren't thinking for themselves, and makes me devalue their analysis as a worst-case scenario. 3) We clearly have different definitions of reads, but he clearly talks about sqrt and Valenius in that post, and it's basically a repeat of what OK said a few posts prior to it regarding why Robik's plays. Same error about sqrt not posting after the RVS phase and everything. Argument about semantics, useless line of questioning. 4) When you made the post, it became pretty clear that it was . Had I not made the Valenius bait so fking obvious, I might've. Then again, I'm not entirely sure why I was so quick to jump the gun, so this is valid. 5) You just made a case about my second post being 20 minutes following up my first post. sqrt had 3 and 1/2 hours since VALENIUS posted his question to OK, and 15 minutes to Robik's WTF to OK's post, and had time to make a joke post referencing Robik joking about never being mafia on TL. Perhaps it's just me, but I really dislike that. I think at this point I'm resigned to having a scummy Day 1 town meta because "mistakes were made", so have at thee and debate it at your leisure. I've got more productive avenues to explore. On the Valenius post: sqrt, how do you get a "neutral" read off of it? It's filled decent, non-rehashed analysis (though I think he could explain his reasoning on Pixalated: Valenius what is your read of him, and why do you think that). You don't like it because he calls you scum, yeah, but tell me: why shouldn't we view you as scummy given your current contributions? Your reads post had two pieces of original analysis: 1) is idle speculation of my relationship with Valenius, and to that I say: don't ask, don't tell  . Ok, I kid, but it was based off something which can readily be falsified with a single glance at his filter at the time. Like, it's SUPER obvious, and really, why would I as scum try to link myself to my scum partner so early (and vice versa), and with something so easily disputed? Neither does this say that he's town if I'm scum (when I "downgraded" him and gave the actual read, Eden was on the Tolkien/Cavalinho 4eva pairing at the time, so I would have no incentive to change anything about Valenius), just that this is a useless line of inquiry.2) idle speculation that Pixelated is blue (don't speculate about other people being blue. I talked about blues in my admittedly disastrous Day 1, but that's a nono and I was only making a soft vet claim, as opposed to calling someone out explicitly as blue (and even that's scummy). DON'T DO THAT AS TOWN. Alot of this also applies to Eden's recent post, and while it confuses my read of him, he still seems town to me. If aggressive in his scumhunting. No need for a double lynch like LII gaiz. You know what, fk it. ##Vote: sqrt The read wasn't strong at all (and I was wavering between hiim and Cavalinho), but after those posts, this is my strongest read, and something which people really should be talking about more because fk. Currently, it seems myself and Cavalinho are the likely lynch targets thus far, and I would submit sqrt as another. Let's keep the votes within this group unless something major comes up. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
COMPLETELY OFFTOPIC DISREGARD @ Valenius: I've got RoS and shit. Since it looks like you're a TLLoL lurker, I'll add you to our clan. LordTolkien#1449 | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 27 2014 06:51 OnceKing wrote: LT: 1-4 we're good on but your 5 is fuckin with me. I believe the point being that you pulled in the trap so soon after you set it, which is an unreasonably short amount of time. Who's gonna ever fall for it so quickly? That's got nothing to do with the other time differences like the 3 1/2 hours w/ Valenius, Robik's 15 minutes to me and yet you're comparing it for some unknown reason. Typing on phone but. I'm not sure, I think it was just stupidity. i was low on sleep, not entirely sure either. can't see the youtube video but I assume it's about Day 1 incompetence. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Meant I was asking about your read on pixalated. You say you dont like the posts and thats it. It makes me uncomfortable in am otherwose good post. Sqrt I meant your responsr to OK. You're saying you're still deciding because he just post his reads and NOTHING MUCH but you did as well. And less content and original contributions compared to it. And you di ssd like his scumread on you. Whatever, I dislike mine but so what. You and I give off scum vibes. Deal. I also started on that post after robik posted in response to eden so I didnt see alot of posts after. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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I kinda want to vote for myself just to spite you and see what happens when I flip green. Pixalated what is your yake on all this. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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1) @ sqrt: Huh. You're right. I just went back to look at LII and there was the same rule in place. No one mentioned it there, when I brought it up then. Doesn't change my read on you, but thanks. 2) Regarding Eden's 5th point: - The slip in the followup post. I never said anything about whether this is the right or wrong day. Looks to me like lies are piling up on top of lies here. I'm not sure how I misread this in the recent posts into referring to the followup post about why I thought sqrt was scummy based on his timestamp, and I apologize for confusing fking everyone, including myself apparently. I thought the fifth point was why I thought sqrt was scummy based on that one post and the timing of it. how to misread (spaces between bullets or numbers pls because i cannae read gud). As for this in particular, I interpreted Eden's statement on mafia posting early reads list on Day 1 as basically stating that it isn't the time and place for such reads (and ultimately such fail bait attempt). His main argument was that my view of Valenius and Pixalated was too solid, both of which were my unsubtle scumbait attempts. At that point, I (think) I figured: whelp, no one's going to fall for those now, and I may as well give it up. I understand that this looks horrendous, but eh. Additionally Pixalated, is there anything else you have to say? Do you have any reads? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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1) OK, while your post has made me re-evaluate Valenius and particularly my town read on that post (I'll try and review his filter if I have time and post about it), but at this stage it's probably a better Day 2 lynch to pursue. There is probably not enough time to get a wagon behind him at this point, so I would recommend focusing on myself and Cavalinho for a wagon. 2) I want Pixalated to post some of his reads when he wakes up. I only just noticed his sleep post. 3) I still don't like sqrt and I don't know why Eden is clearing him as town. If we were ignoring that I, Cavalinho, and Valenius apparently all have scumreads or scummy reads on him (there probably is one scum among us, TBH) 4) I'm incredulous that Eden has been trying to say that he hasn't planned out what happens if I'm green (and we'll cross that bridge when we get there), when he already decided to talk about what happens if when I flip red. First let's get through Day 1, before constructing scenarios of who's mafia partner with who, because it's all idle speculation until we get a flip. But whatever, I'm done dealing with his shit. Some of it's really just skirting the line of what's acceptable. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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would he be ringing alarm bells here? I understand the concern here if scum is pushing him, but I still don't like him. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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I still dont like sqrt. More than Cav and am keeping the vote here. The only other thing i can do is consolidate on Cavwho is also is scummy but less so. And already set for lynch. This Val wagon and pixalated wagon needs to be at unhitched now. Do it tom o rrow or at night. If you think im more scummy than Cav Ok, fking vote for me. Not going to stop you. This is turning into a repeat of LII mafia. Reread your tunneling posts Eden. youtube video, memes now pansy ass beta bitch. Thos is mafia but fking chill and tone it down. Im fne with heat but the insults are getting annoying Phone outta batteries, so likely my last post. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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Is this a Day1 parity cop claim? Like even if he is what he says and doesnt die during the night it wont be till Day 3 till it activates and wut. Yeah much as I don't like eden. ##vote: cavalinho Wtf Now back to tutoring kids. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 28 2014 07:23 OnceKing wrote: LT swapped late so I'm leaning more town on him. Not a lot to be gleaned from outliers here as everyone seemed to push their cases a decent amount. I'm tired atm, and have alot of filters I need to review before the night is over (probably won't be able to post substantively until close to the deadline), but how does that make me appear more town, because I'm scratching my head. Finally, everyone needs to step back and take a deep breath. Ya we lost a blue role but whatever. It didn't alter the outcome of LII, and it (hopefully) won't alter it here, finally because we seem to be overvaluing it; it's a Parity Cop, at best it wasn't kick in until Day 3, and that's a maybe. I have to agree with Eden on this but there aren't many viable options here when faced with a Day 1 parity cop claim. If it were a cop claim, I would probably agree with you Robik, but...I feel you're over valuing it. We still need to make to catch scum Day 2, or else we have to survive 2 LYLO scenarios back to back, and I with the way town has progressed thus far, I'm not confident we could do that. And the advice given after LII is that blue roles should NOT be played any differently from a green role, which Cavalinho seemed to be doing and just trying to survive (compare that kind of play to OK playing medic in LII). I feel bad Cavalinho was lynched twice D1 (and I survived again, lol), but there were enough discrepancies in his play and a lack of genuine contributions to warrant it. That's all for now. Probably won't be able to post much till near the deadline but we'll see. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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But to Robik and Valenius: There’s general discussion that people should avoid talking about their reads to avoid directing Mafia’s night kill. This is wrong. Night is the best time to analyze the lynch and the events of the previous day, because after the kill, everyone is going to be focused on the night kill and the previous day will be drowned out. AKA LII Newbie Mafia writeup we all should have read. The correct play is TO be talking about it. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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oh and robik survived n1 gg, clear mafia Alright, looking at nightkills, Eden is the super obvious choice, doesn't change much for my analysis. In fact, it just cuts out the comments I was going to make about Eden. Day 1 is characterized by what I feel are three MAJOR events. 1) The OK lurker policy, Robik's wtf, and the subsequent push onto Cavalinho for following Robik on it 2) My own fail post and the subsequent shitstorm. 3) The Cavalinho parity claim. I think the first two situations have been beaten to death, though I'll answer any remaining questions people have about the second point. The brunt of my analysis will be on Cavalinho put out the parity cop claim just to spite fking Eden, and I can understand it. More than understand it, I did the same thing because it was fking tiresome. Let's look how people fell on that. Pixalated wasn't online at the time because Singapore. Eden kept pushing, and was tunneling on Cavalinho and Robik being scum together (this is a clusterfuck I want to return to later when I have more time to analyze the slapfight more throoughly). Robik posted a spirited defense of Cavalinho, saying we shouldn't lynch the parity cop claim. Also yelling at Eden. I still don't understand how the parity cop claim can just sort itself out before Day 3, and even then it doesn't necessarily become useful. Valenius states that: On March 28 2014 06:07 Valenius wrote: In light of this.. My vote isn't moving. I don't believe LT is mafia, so i'm not going to move my vote on to him. Which is actually a pretty bold statement since no-one else had said anything decisive, and I think it leans town. I do want an explanation as to why you didn't move it onto Cavalinho, however, as while I understand why you didn't move it onto me, but not Cav. You just over half-an hour stated that: On March 28 2014 05:28 Valenius wrote: I really want to keep my vote on sqrt, but it doesn't look like it's going down that way. Out of Cav/LT, i'd be voting for Cav. Then, RolandJarvis is online and posts: Posting to say I'm refreshing from work and I'm aware of current events. He doesn't explicitly take a side here (instead keeps on voting Cavalinho). And what were your thoughts about the whole affair? You didn't post any thoughts about it despite being online at the time. OK then posts that he disagrees with Robik's reasoning that "the parity cop claim will sort itself out". He doesn't take further action outside of this, as of yet. Likely thinking over his course of action. RJ then posts this: On March 28 2014 06:34 RolandJarvis wrote: I am nervous about who won't be around and the possibility of no accountability vote switches in the name of not lynching the claim. I believe everyone in the game has by this time been accounted for outside of myself (I noted previously that my phone was dead), and Pixalated (who stated he was sleeping and wasn't around for the lynch). It seems to imply that you still wanted to see Cavalinho lynched, as you were worried about vote switches off of him? Then we get On March 28 2014 06:37 sqrtofneg1 wrote: The question is, do we believe the cop claim or not? It's doubtful, but possible. Which is fking useless. No stand, no reason to post it outside to basically signal hes online and aware of what's happening, and just makes town more confused and uncertain. He doesn't change his vote on Cavalinho. Scummy or useless town contribution. Valenius responds to it and says: On March 28 2014 06:38 Valenius wrote: Shit, i wish someone had wondered this earlier. Which raises the question as to why you don't post anything afterwards regarding the Cavalinho lynch (either changing your play, taking a firm stand on it before Day 1 ended, or commenting on later actions), as you were clearly online at the time. I then make a post that states I have a short amount of time to check and reply to the mafia thread + Show Spoiler [RL reason] + the kids I was tutoring got disciplinary action so I had half an hour to fuck around OK then posts his vote switch from Valenius to Cavalinho, specifically citing RJ's concern that people would vote-switch off of Cavalinho because of the claim, and stating he doesn't think it can resolve itself. At this point I finally finish skimming the thread, have no fking clue what to say about the claim, and thought to myself: I might as well consolidate because I basically think there's no fking way this will end well because it's a fking parity cop, and we could be LYLO if we try to accommodate it. I DISAGREE THAT THIS IS A TOWN PLAY. Neutral play at best in my own review of the action, since it was posted after OK posted his justification (I posted I was online probably like 15s before he posted his justification and voteswitch). I'll say this: I disagree with OK's assessment of LT late vote on Cava looking good because why would mafia want to draw attention to themselves. I disagree because if LT is mafia, and he's one of the other wagons, he has to make sure that he's not lynched based off of a late vote-switch based off of the claim. Thus it makes sense for him to make sure that the lead wagon is as far ahead as possible. I agree with this, though at the time there were 4 votes on Cavalinho, so it would take 2 vote switches, as opposed to 1, to see myself lynched. I actually like the skepticism here. I don't see how it can be anything but a neutral at best move, especially as I did telegraph that I was most likely not going to be able to post again before the deadline. tl;dr??? I feel really scummy about sqrt's post for obvious reasons. It doesn't discuss "what should we do", it just incites doubt about "is he REALLY a cop?" (like we're going to fking know until he flips). He doesn't change his vote or anything, so I'm really not sure what to make of it. Valenius' posts confuse me here and I'm not sure how to interpret his play; his first post seems towny to me, but the second, combined with a lack of followup, confuses this read: especially as he said he didn't mind voting Cavalinho over myself. RJ voiced a valid concern about possible vote-switching off of Cavalinho (but apparently did not foresee the vote-switching ON to Cavalinho), and seemed to be for the continued lynching of Cavalinho claim or no claim. I agree with it, but I can't read much else from him here. OK does voteswitch onto Cavalinho first (followed by myself like 5 minutes later). I am uneasy about Robik's play, and will be posting another analysis of it later today. This was already more work than I intended. I have more general reads and proposals coming in the next wall-o-text | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
General analysis after reading what has been posted while I was typing: First (this goes for Eden and OK): Clarification: Valenius was not the first one to push onto sqrt, nor the first person to vote on him. *ehm* On the Valenius post: sqrt, how do you get a "neutral" read off of it? It's filled decent, non-rehashed analysis (though I think he could explain his reasoning on Pixalated: Valenius what is your read of him, and why do you think that). You don't like it because he calls you scum, yeah, but tell me: why shouldn't we view you as scummy given your current contributions? Your reads post had two pieces of original analysis: 1) is idle speculation of my relationship with Valenius, and to that I say: don't ask, don't tell . Ok, I kid, but it was based off something which can readily be falsified with a single glance at his filter at the time. Like, it's SUPER obvious, and really, why would I as scum try to link myself to my scum partner so early (and vice versa), and with something so easily disputed? Neither does this say that he's town if I'm scum (when I "downgraded" him and gave the actual read, Eden was on the Tolkien/Cavalinho 4eva pairing at the time, so I would have no incentive to change anything about Valenius), just that this is a useless line of inquiry.2) idle speculation that Pixelated is blue (don't speculate about other people being blue. I talked about blues in my admittedly disastrous Day 1, but that's a nono and I was only making a soft vet claim, as opposed to calling someone out explicitly as blue (and even that's scummy). DON'T DO THAT AS TOWN. aka what Eden apparently only just noticed Night 2. dem scum team reads yo THAT BEING SAID. I'm not sure what it is, but I like his posting. OK's accusation got me to make a doubletake on my initial very towny feel from his first major contribution (it is possible it was also motivated by his defense of me, but Robik agreed with me here so it probably wasn't just that), but I'm tentatively feeling he's town. His stand in the Cavalinho parity cop claim makes sense, and he did it before anyone not directly involved in the clusterfk (mainly Eden, Robik, and Cav himself) did. His quoting of sqrt's absolutely fking useless post tho (and not following up) is getting at me and keeping me from pegging him as solid town. I'm solidly pegging OK as town. I don't think there's much to say here. @ sqrt: Can you please give us an actual reason why we shouldn't lynch you today? I'm fine that you lived through Day 1 but your Day 1 was pisspoor and scummy. Like, if you're town, please defend yourself and don't be another fking Beneather. If you're scum and are just being another N1K0 tho, pls continue. And finally: @ Dead-den, I noted previously I had time constraints which prevent me from posting comprehensively until near the deadline, and I apparently fked that up. MB At this point, my other possible scumreads outside of sqrt (who I don't want everyone to SOLELY focus on today no matter how hard Val and I pushed him Day 1) are: Pixalated RolandJarvis Robik (I really need to analyze why I'm uncomfortable with him with my gut as a gut reaction [don't think he's scum, but uncomfortable enough to be concerned], but no time atm, hopefully I can get through with that before we're quarterway through the day, but at the latest halfway through) I'm fairly confident that OK is town, as is Valenius. Which reminds me, Robik you posted that you thought that OK was scummy up until later in the day (and in fact that the two mafia were in with me, Cavalinho, and, OK), but also noted in that post that OK started appearing less scummy. Why? Also, I'm waiting on your reads; I haven't seen any from you at all this game, which is entirely different from your Day 1 play in LII. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 29 2014 10:25 OnceKing wrote: dude LT what are you typing you just wavered between me being solid town and not being solid town like three times Err what. I'm fairly certain that wasn't in the posts lol, and if it was I apologize. I THINK You mean when I was talking about your accusation about Valenius (that section isn't clear), but I meant I did a doubletake of Valenius and think he's tentatively town because of his Cavalinho play. That wasn't referring to you. I need to proofread next time, but whatever I wrote, I mean you are solid town. And to clarify super scum: sqrt scummy: Pixalated RJ uncomfortable with (gut feeling): Robik tentative town: Valenis OK: solid town Just to clear up confusion | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
THAT BEING SAID. I'm not sure what it is, but I like his posting. OK's accusation got me to make a doubletake on my initial very towny feel from his first major contribution (it is possible it was also motivated by his defense of me, but Robik agreed with me here so it probably wasn't just that), but I'm tentatively feeling he's town. His stand in the Cavalinho parity cop claim makes sense, and he did it before anyone not directly involved in the clusterfk (mainly Eden, Robik, and Cav himself) did. His quoting of sqrt's absolutely fking useless post tho (and not following up) is getting at me and keeping me from pegging him as solid town. Is this section what you mean? Because it all refers to Valenius. The only part that refers to you is your Val wagon. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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also yes, prepare to face the mighty millhouse pronounstorm. | ||
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I understand that currently you are likely asleep Pixalated, but you had a whole 48 hours where you didn't post a thing. Same with RJ. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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sqrt isn't scum. Or at the very least, I see no reason to lynch him Day 2 when he's been posting...unlike three other people I can mention *COUGHCOUGHCOUGH*. #Vote RolandJarvis Been reassessing Robik and I still don't know why I feel uncomfortable about him. :\ | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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Scuse me but this takes some explanation. | ||
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On March 31 2014 04:33 RolandJarvis wrote: I'm pretty disappointed with the activity level, it took no time to catch up. Well duh. That's hat happens when you only have 4/7 posting. What do you guys think of this shit. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 04:35 RolandJarvis wrote: and it's still 3 hours til lynch which seems like plenty of time. The wagon is obviously quite independent of my return. I'm either playing or I'm not. Then you'd be wrong. You had 48 hours to post something telling us you're alive AFYER THE NIGHTKILL and 70 hours after the lynch. If you are town fk you. 3 hours means shit and you know it. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
#Unvote RolandJarvis #vote Pixalated I'm willing to excuse this as a misunderstanding. That being said, POST REGULARLY AND FREQUENTLY. Posting a giant block 2 hours before the lynch does nothing, because you don't contribute anything to the scumhunting or set up ANY WAGONS in the 70 hours prior. I'm still not happy with you at all, but you're posting something at least. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 04:50 RolandJarvis wrote: Not voting this late in the day is not a good look. Combine that with eden being suspicious of him and I'm going to give Pixalated a second look. pls | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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Tumbleweeds for another 70. | ||
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On March 31 2014 05:13 Valenius wrote: Anyway, i'll try to stop snide posting. LT, if you take anger out of the equation (and the wtf posts about activity he's had), would you consider switching to pix? I already have. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On March 31 2014 05:17 OnceKing wrote: Valenius, LT - who are your other mafia suspects? Still uncomfortable about Robik and still don't like sqrt and RJ but this Day 2 has been a disaster postingwise so I'm trying to get activity up going forward. This flip should also tell us something. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Also correct lynch anyways. Another beneather unfortunately but no posts. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 31 2014 07:37 sqrtofneg1 wrote: RJ, are you doctor? STOP ADKING ABOUT THIS SHIT. YOU DON'T NEED TO KNOW IF YOU ARE TOWN. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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On March 31 2014 08:32 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Well, what do you want me to expect? I was roleblocked, and that means there's a medic in the setup. Then stop asking about it. If you're town YOU DONT WANT TO KNOW WHO'S MEDIC. The only ones who wants to know are SCUM so they can nightkill him. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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It's a cease and desist. Sure, it's fine to let us know you were roleblocked. But stop asking about the medic jeez. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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1) I am not doctor. That being said, I'm not sure what to make of sqrt's claims. He could be making this shit up as scum do know the setup to know there won't be a counterclaim. I'm just going to ignore all this talk of blues and roleblocks because I have no fking clue whether to believe it or not. 2) I...don't get what Robik's case against me is? Can you elaborate? I'm going to reread filters later tonight to figure out who the second mafia is. But initial impressions: #vote sqrt I said it before and I'll say it again, being a blue role is no excuse for being scummy as fk. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
The only other thing I find believable is Val and OK, or Robik and OK, and that requires quite some WIFOM do to their day 1 moves. | ||
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That analysis is holy s-. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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The only other thing I find believable is Val and OK, or Robik and OK, and that requires quite some WIFOM do to their day 1 moves. I should have believed in the WIFOM, because the first Day 1 exchange was pretty damn ridic and I don't know why I wrote them off as being mafia together because of it initially. It should've been a telltale sign, and I really should have tried to question the sqrt lynch. If I had the time to sit down and REALLY scrutinized my own reads and other people's analysis, I feel I could've won this for town, but I didn't have/do either. So ye, I feel like I really dropped the ball here HARD (and hypocrisy since my D2 was entirely devoted to trying to get people to fking post, Pixal pls wtf). Lessons I've learned from this game: 1) How to approach blue role claims. AKA not lynch them. Huehuehue. Story of this game is "town decides to lynch ALL da blues". And more importantly, learn to discern blue from scum. This is my first mafia game since LII, so that should tell you how little I generally play mafia, and how much I need to improve on in general. 2) That I now apparently have a scummy town D1 meta. Lynch me next game if I appear town D1 gaiz (if I actually have time to play, mafia too exhausting and time-consuming). 3) Lend more weight to nightkills and their implications. 4) l really, REALLY should believe in the WIFOM. Especially something as obvious as that, but I really didn't believe that scum would be so forward Day 1 and be the center of attention. 5) how2scumbait (don't) http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/227Jz8ekq7iaT For my coach QT. In general, D1: I just don't feel Cav put together an adequate defense and his posting pattern made me misread him (sorta again), and I felt a parity cop is less impactful and guaranteed than a cop, and a blue role with no impact should have no bearing on (edit: his lynch at the time. I mean there's not much else I could do because I was the other candidate [and I apparently can't vote myself], and no one was swapping onto sqrt at the time so...In hindsight, it would've been to lynch myself, or oneo f hte two blues. lulz, mafia played well this game). And my view going into D3 is that there was a coinflip chance the RB claim and medic claim was bogus even without a counterclaim, and thus I chose to rely on my then-present reads, which was fk that, I'm pretty sure he's scummy. As was pointed out in obs QT, I should've noticed his consistent medic pattern, but hindsight 20/20 (and you gaiz got a mod confirm for him), or gone for my other scum read (Robik), even if only to check reactions. Also, Howard. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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D2: ...I have no words. NO WORDS. | ||
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On April 03 2014 08:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote: If you claimed medic on N2 you would've been dead because you didn't give sqrt's rb claim any attention. Balla told me you were planning on claiming to be rbed both nights If Robik had claimed N2 (and sqrt counterclaimed) I would probably have swapped my lynch focus right there because that would scream that sqrt/Robik aren't scum team, which leads me to my two other conclusions (and I was lending much more weight to Robik/OK through D3 than OK/Valenius). And since only one of them can possibly be medic, and the way my possible scum pairings were going at that stage...eh. And make me notice that sqrt has been trying to feebly and awkwardly breadcrumb medic. That too. Mostly that, probably. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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true. I'm free past 7PMs almost always as opposed to sometimes available before that and sometimes completely booked. time frames 2 hard | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On April 03 2014 08:56 sqrtofneg1 wrote: irl mafia is sooooo different i don't have much experience with either so do tell My main comment to you would be to follow what I said previously in the thread, or in the TL General Guide to Mafia. When you have a blue role, you should be posting as if you are a townie. The only difference is that you are more well-informed than other townies. ... As a general rule, normal townies should not attempt to direct blue roles or try to find out who is blue and who is not. Town power roles work better if the mafia are uncertain of what the blue roles will do. You were trying to do neither, which just made me think you were scum and alerted mafia to you being blue. I made the same mistake LII D1 sorta. My soft-vet claim was cray-cray. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On April 03 2014 12:01 Cavalinho wrote: Dude. You voted me because I claimed and because it would take too long to prove. Shut up. Yes. That was stupid. | ||
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