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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
**** formattings wrong. too eager to press post. Guys, if you struggle to figure it out, let me know and i'll copy and reformat. cursed [quote] tags. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 26 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote: Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction. Valid point. Amiko, at the moment you're where my vote is going. Sleep time now for me. I'll try take a lunch break tomorrow to review any overnight (from my perspective) posts. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 26 2014 08:56 Amiko wrote: I started a post but I didn’t get through nearly as much as I was hoping. More coming once I’m home, but here’s a few things I can post to keep discussion going. Tolkien’s Scumbait Post Show nested quote + On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I guess I figured there was a chance Tolkien’s night post was mafia bait given his phrasing - if Tolkien thought I was “definitely scum” then there’s no way he could see theDragoon as “maybe scum” (because there’s just one mafia left). The important post to me is Tolkien’s second so we’ll get to that. My Discussion of Cops This is something I didn’t want to address in my first post because of the possibility one of you two would claim cop but I’m fine with raising it now. Valenius mentions my reference to the cop here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20869986). My posts re: cop were just an attempt at either scumbaiting or trying to draw a bullet. I’ll explain both. First off, I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played a mafia game without some kind of investigation role, so I came into this game assuming there would be a cop. After OnceKing flipped as doctor and I felt there were almost certainly just two mafia, I really re-examined that assumption considering the numbers of the “automatic balance tester” (http://hamumu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=263954). To explain, the numbers come out as follows: 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +5 = town favored 1 mafia goon (-6) and 1 godfather (-7) vs. 5 vanilla town (+5), 1 cop (+7), and 1 medic (+5) = +4 = town favored 2 mafia goon (-12) vs. 6 vanilla town (+6) and 1 medic (+5) = 0 = balanced Based on those numbers I concluded damn, we probably have no cop. But, my post suggested that I felt there was probably a cop. This was to invite mafia to claim cop. If we had two people claim cop today, then the game becomes easier – since one would be lying, we’d essentially have a confirmed town (the non-cop). If one person claimed cop, the numbers would suggest to me that they were probably mafia faking the claim and expecting no counter claim (because no real cop is in the game). So, if either of you claimed cop, that would have been nice. Um… you can still claim it though :3 pls? Alternatively, my post might make mafia think I was cop. I didn’t think this was very likely because I feel my play doesn’t look like a cop… cop Amiko probably would have checked n1k0/Beneather/Valenius given my perception of them as potentially scummy lurkers who were unlikely to be killed by mafia. But, if mafia thought I might be cop, they might hit me and leave a town player who appeared more towny (Tolkien, potentially Valenius) alive. The post didn’t really give me any information but I can understand why my post seemed weird. I guess I could suggest it’s more scummy that Valenius raised the point (maybe he was considering killing me or claiming cop?) but that feels like weak grounds for a read. Night Kills theDragoon does mention that two of the people who had initially voted for me d1 were night killed (Tolkien and OnceKing). I guess that’s true, but they didn’t even vote for me so it feels like reaching that I would want to kill them for suspecting me d1. I don’t get any significant reads from the kill on OnceKing. From my point of view, he was an obvious kills for mafia at least because of his strong town play and because people perceived him as town. Tolkien feels somewhat similar to OnceKing – he’s also a strong town player who people perceived as town. I think we can get a little from his kill, though, because mafia is specifically looking at a LYLO situation. The weird think about these kills is that OnceKing didn’t get killed day 1. In other words, Robik’s death feels more significant because he was killed instead of another more town player (OnecKing). So, I’m going to focus a little more on the Robik kill. Kill on Robik First off, I’ll grant that IAmRobik was suspicious of confirmed scum n1k0, so there is some justification for killing him regardless of who last mafia is. 1) A mafia Amiko probably would not kill IAmRobik. I’ve referred to my “who could have saved Cavalinho” post a few times. I’ll grant that the case wasn’t strong, but think about how a mafia Amiko would see the game. Mafia Amiko had made a case using vote analysis on IAmRobik. Mafia Amiko could push on IAmRobik day 2 hoping to get another mislynch while also appearing more town (by being proactive). In reality, the target of my n1 pressure was killed, so I ended up feeling very unsure about day 2 because the two people I had pushed on (Cavalinho & Robik) had both died and flipped town, and I wasn’t satisfied with the responses we were getting. I’ll also note that n1k0 did start to backpack onto my points on Robik. Given that we had both just been the only two votes mislynching Cavalinho, it seems like drawing ourselves further together is just making us seem like an even more obvious team. I’ll grant there is probably some crazy WIFOM play where two mafia do the exact same thing, but that just seems like a lot of commitment for no reason… If I was mafia, I could have moved my vote off Cavalinho and gotten Tolkien lynched instead (he was the second to get two votes). I had raised a few points that made me seem him as mafia, so I think I would have had a legitimate reason to separate the mafia votes while getting a mislynch. Moreover, the mislynch would be among three people instead of just two, and I would have saved Cavalinho (who had indicated he thought I was town, even if he was a jerk about it). Based on that, I think (1) mafia Amiko would not kill IAmRobik and (2) an Amiko & n1k0 mafia team would link themselves so much when they don’t need to do so. 2) A mafia theDragoon probably wouldn’t kill Robik Tolkien mostly covers this, I have just a point to add below. I agree with the analysis here. Show nested quote + On February 25 2014 11:59 Lord Tolkien wrote: It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. The only thing to add to this is that theDragoon also has less reason to vote for Robik because Robik called him town (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820245). 3) A mafia Valenius would see Robik as a high priority kill I stress the high priority. Ending d1, I felt like ok, OnceKing will probably die because he presented as somewhat towny, got discussion going, and didn’t tunnel on a mislynch like I did. Tolkien’s discussion (above) provides one reason that separately from n1k0, Valenius would have seen Robik as the kill. In summary, Robik might just have been killed because he was calling out mafia n1k0. But, I still think that besides n1k0, theDragoon and I had reasons not to kill Robik, whereas Valenius had reasons to kill Robik. -- @Valenius and @theDragoon: Did you see OnceKing as a likely kill night 1? I gave one point regarding my day 2 activity in this post (why I wouldn’t kill Robik) but I’ll try to give you more defense of it in a later post if you see it as scummy Made the mistake of checking reddit and refreshing before turning off pc, so here goes. I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were. Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik. As for your directed question: As i put in my last meaty post, yes and no. Obviously viewing as if from a scum perspective: Yes: I know he's town, so he's proving himself to be a town leader straight off the bat. The average level of discussion in a newbie game is going to be lower, so I'd want to get rid of any potentially leading players early on. Pretty simple answer. No: He's a reasonably likely medic save, so that'd waste a night. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 26 2014 12:35 Amiko wrote: I think a few recent points Valenius have raised make no sense and I will highlight them here. I have a few comments to theDragoon also I’ll hit up next. Godfather Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Yeah.. lol. This was either a major slip by n1k0 (a possibility given his overall play), or just trying to be townie. I'm leaning towards the former. This analysis is illogical because we both should know there is almost certainly no cop (unless you want to claim it :3). With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose). Thus, it doesn’t make sense to read this as a slip by n1k0 at this point in the game. The post by n1k0 wasn't today.. it was early in the game. Earlier in the game we had no idea if there was a cop. Hell, we had no idea if there were 0 blue roles, or several blue roles. How can you try and compare a slip-read of earlier in the game, and pretend it's a slip-read for today? That makes no sense whatsoever. Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Both scum voting for the same lynch on d1 does seem like an over-commitment, but it's those sort of plays that sometimes need to be made. The later votes on n1k0 (Tolkien/Amiko/Beneather) were ones I felt uneasy about. Solid cases had been made on him, so keeping the vote off doesn't serve much purpose. It puts more pressure on him to put up a good defense, which we can learn more from. (Okay, he crumbled in this case, but you'd expect a better defence). Sure, sometimes mafia may make desperate plays. But, none of the three of us would have felt desperate day 1. N1k0 and his partner each could have placed their vote on a few different people and still gotten a mislynch. Yes, mafia could vote together day 1 to get a mislynch, but there’s no reason they would group their votes when there is no cause for desperation, no need for over-commitment. You say this, yet you're saying that I'm most likely to be killing robik based on his read on me for night 1? Is Day1 that much different to night 1 in that regard? It doesn't have to be a desperation play, it could be a calculated play? Stick both on the same target, and if one get's caught then this defence is wheeled out? Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 09:20 Valenius wrote: I posted my thoughts on the Robik kill before, but in summary. You're posting about what a mafia amiko wouldn't do? A 'Mafia Valenius' wouldn't kill the guy who only I have a vote on, who's the only guy who raised any sort of suspicions on me that are worth responding to (more than the 'you're not contributing as much as me' posts). When I left the thread for that night, there were 2 votes on Cavalinho: Yours and n1k0's. It would have been a much better play to piggyback onto your votes, and make up some reasoning based around loosely what the d1 arguments against cav were. Instead, I had him as a town read, and kept my vote on robik (Reasoning explained at length several times throughout the thread). To then kill robik that night when i'm the only vote on him is nonsensical. If I was playing mafia, My vote wouldn't have been on someone as obscure as Robik. This bolded statement makes no sense. Of course mafia would want to kill someone who raised a case on them, particularly if they raised suspicions that were meritorious enough to require answering. The point is, Robik was a weird kill for night one. But, it makes a lot more sense if the scumteam is Robik & n1k0. Keep this in mind for the next point. I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response. Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: Robik - I'm not sure. He never particularly reads theDragoon, where as he has a lot of posts on you, the majority saying you're townie. This is wierd, though; In his Town-> Mafia list, you're listed as more scummy than theDragoon. I don't understand his reasoning behind that. Killing him is more likely to have occured from yourself than theDragoon, as the myriad of his posts praising you provide better cover than a mixed/almost non-existant reception for theDragoon. Responding to this post actually made me groan. I thought to myself, that’s weird, I remember correcting someone on this exact point a day or two ago. So I looked up my post and it turns out Valenius I corrected you on this exact point earlier. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly. Show nested quote + On February 20 2014 09:24 Amiko wrote: Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good: Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him. Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night. Firstly, In the nicest way possible, get off your high horse. Don't even try to act indignant for having to answer something twice. I've answered multiple questions MULTIPLE times throughout this thread. The point I wan't to draw out of this.. IAmRobik did read theDragoon, and he did so very strongly. In what universe does "I kinda like theDragoon's posts" equal reading him very strongly? I'm sorry if I'm being really dense here, but I can't understand where you got this conclusion from. Robik read theDragoon as town. He read me as town. He read you as scum and he read n1k0 as scum. He died the same night. He also had tolkien as more mafia than me. Don't try and pretend his reads were all-knowing. Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: I think i've provided more meat than you can handle, amiko. I tried my best, so sorry :p You gave me meat. So I made a sandwich A SCUM SANDWICH. (YOU ARE THE SCUM) (I HAD BREAD ALREADY) Offtopic: We need to stop talking about meat.. It's one of my colleagues leaving do's on Friday. After a day with no lunch break, the last thing you want to see is a menu drop into your inbox at 4pm, with this as the main picture.. http://i.imgur.com/kzXIlnH.jpg | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 26 2014 12:52 Amiko wrote: theDragoon: [u]Night Posts[u] In this post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20871762) you point out that I push for night actions and suggest perhaps Robik was killed because he was against night discussion. First off, just a gut answer - that seems to me like a really low priority reason for mafia to kill someone. Second, OnceKing got killed the same night he posted we should contribute at night, and he was killed the same night. Third, I still have a strong feeling that talking at night is good for town. I mean honestly, we tip mafia off to our reads during the day too. 24 hours of silence in the thread would suck. We've had almost 12 hours of inactivity before on a day phase, it wouldn't be that different! My feelings on this: Early on in the game, the reads aren't usually going to be strong enough to post conclusions that the rest of town can't draw themselves (either the next day, or following days). There's no real indication of who's going to be killed night 1, so the chance of you having to post your reads to try and steer town in the right directon is lower. The only time I'd flip on this, is if it's a cop who has a scum read, who's coming out. That needs to be as late as possible so it doesn't influence the kill. (This would obviously have to be day2/night2, unless it's a game where night0 actions take place. Last night however, although I disagree with the majority of tolkiens post, when it was almost a given that he would be dying if he's town, it's reasonable to post your thoughts. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 26 2014 13:48 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later. -- If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did. Bolded the part: No. The mafia get's the most out of killing the most influential player. I feel you're probably looking at this angle a bit wrong. OnceKing didn't label me town, but i'm not the only one he hasn't labeled as town. In fact, the only one I can see being labeled as town by him day2 is Lord Tolkien. He hasn't played by labelling every single player. As for everyone else calling me town, I've already mentioned earlier today my views on that; It was reasonably naive to all 100% me based on that flip. Read further back to see my view more expanded. Anyway, Amiko: My vote's still falling on your side of the wall. If you want to ask me any more questions, I'll be online for the next ~4-5 hours then off for the night. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Valenius
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Show nested quote + On February 26 2014 10:19 theDragoon wrote: On February 26 2014 09:04 Amiko wrote: @theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do: On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote: On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent Argument What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument? I don't think i ever said n1k0 had a decent argument, "a decent argument" was the title you put into your post and that was the part I was referring to with my reply. My post there was me saying you put words in my mouth by saying I townread n1k0's argument. Your exact words for your read on n1k0's argument: N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. Show nested quote + On February 19 2014 15:06 theDragoon wrote: After seeing Robik get shot, I looked at who voted for him and who he voted for. IAmRobik voted N1k0 and Valenius was the only one to vote Robik. I read through Valenius filter. On this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=7#130 Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read. Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this: Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius. This could have been the plan all along? Vote Robik -> Implicate Me. Right. theDragoon, if you're mafia and you win.. fair play. You'll have completely fooled me. I have a stronger mafia read on Amiko, and i've tried combing through your filter.. but apart from the stuff posted over the last few pages (some by amiko), I really can't see anything more suspicious. I'm gonna be watching football (soccer for you guys) for a bit, but i'll be refreshing every few minutes. ##vote Amiko | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
Just to be clear, this is all meta argument. WE NOW know there is no cop, but n1k0 DIDNT. That's my whole point. I'm commenting on his post as it is at the time, with the information available at that point. Nobody had a flying clue if we had a cop. "With no cop, it makes no sense for there to be a godfather (the role would serve no purpose)." What? The roles were chosen randomly from the pool at the start. It's even stated in the first posts. (2nd post) "This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. " I don't know how the hosts choose roles, but I'd kinda doubt they'd interfere to specifically change a godfather to a goon. I could understand interference though if the rolling for roles brought up 8 cops and 1 godfather (shit would be funny though). "It is possible the setup could have a godfather without a cop – this might confuse mafia into assuming there is a cop at the beginning of the game, or it might confuse town into assuming there is a cop if someone flips godfather." I understand what you're saying here, but again i really disagree. The host should be as impartial as possible. Editing the setup to take out those roles could influence mafia play.. I don't think they'd do it. Of course, as you've said; It is a meta discussion; I just don't think your comment on my post is really relevant to the actual content of my post, and instead just dismissing it as wrong logic based on what we now know. Here we are talking about Valenius saying Robik never read theDragoon. Read my entire post, not just the first sentence. It goes on to say how I think it's odd based on his later listings of you below thedragoon, purely based on amount of reads. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play. Ok. only real i'd like to look at here, is your comment that n1k0 responded with reads. Looking back, all of his posts post-suspicion on him were watery. It was a mix of other people's reads, and questions to try and deflect away from him. On your latest post; As I mentioned earlier, I really cannot see much scum on theDragoon and he's been in my town pile since before today. If theDragoon is mafia, and we both vote to lynch each other (as seems likely), then i'll apologise now in the same vein as in my last post: He completely played us, and let us argue amongst ourselves for more of today. Everything in your post is what i've been thinking, but really: I can't base my vote, or really anything off that post. I'm hope you'll understand the reasoning for that ~ I'm sure if I'd have posted that, your reaction would be the same. Also, you can tell my heads gone haha: I was going to say how n1k0 posted 6 minutes after you questioned him (noticed whilst looking through n1k0 filter).. double checked and it's 24hours and 6 minutes. doh. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 05:31 Amiko wrote: I'm back from lunch Valenius don't go to sleep yet :x Still here for another few hours. | ||
Valenius
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On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start I don't think I am, at least this doesn't feel like sleeping~ | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:14 Amiko wrote: Show nested quote + On February 27 2014 04:56 theDragoon wrote: He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko. Yes I did. I pointed out that I felt if he was town he would be giving his reads and thoughts so town could consider them post-flip. Amiko.. several posts ago you said this: I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. These two are just a massive contradiction. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote: Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point. His post totally the wrong direction for town. You are about to go to sleep. Your reads and vote will presumedly be locked in once you depart. Both theDragoon and I should be spending the last few hours we have to talk to you pressing you for reads, asking you questions, and trying to convince you of our towniness. We should be trying to get as much out of you as we can. Instead, theDragoon gives a general comment that he reread the filters and now he has decided to vote for me. He has no questions for you, he is not trying to press anything. He posts a quick laundry list of concerns that you and I have discussed in some depth and provides no reasoning or insight as to why he decides they are scummy. Each point has been made before and each has been responded to. theDragoon doesn't try to convince you that the responses were bad, because he can't. ALSO WTF he notices that there are new posts but decides to vote before reading them? What's the rush? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT Also copchecks / godfather Valenius, you and I went back and forth on this some. The only new point I want to raise is that the roles were secret, but there is no indication that they were random. I really don't think that a newbie game would be all random roles, anyway, I think it would be a balanced game. Anyway even if I can't convince you that n1k0's comment is weird, theDragoon doesn't even care that we have discussed it, doesn't weigh in at all. He doesn't want more conversation on these points because your vote is on the wrong person. I do agree on some of these, but if he assumes that we're (me & him) both voting on the mafia, then whilst there's reason to push, it's not as great as the push needed earlier imo. He's posted some on his reads.. it seems like more of a summary. The part i've bolded: If you think i'm mafia throughout the day (which you did), then most of your focus should be on proving that to dragoon. I've tried to defend my towniness when questioned, and i've tried to draw conclusions on thedragoon, but most of my effort has been on you. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: Show nested quote + On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote: On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it. Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon. If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia? I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 06:35 Amiko wrote: Show nested quote + On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. You mention you wanted to bait votes on to me, yet in your post-day explanation of that event you stated you were confident i was scum, with no mention of baits: On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote: I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. What gives on that? | ||
Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
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Valenius
United Kingdom1266 Posts
On February 27 2014 07:00 Amiko wrote: Show nested quote + On February 27 2014 06:48 Valenius wrote: On February 27 2014 06:35 Amiko wrote: On February 27 2014 06:30 Valenius wrote: I have my answer to this, but i'd like to hear dragoon's response first. I'm willing to point to a few things, there are responses that are easy to this, like if we linked ourselves d1, it would be too risky to vote together day 2 also. This just again stresses how terrible it would be for mafia to vote on the same person day 1. Actually, my post was going to center around how far gone I feel the vote on n1k0 was by that point. Pretty much everyone has said they felt OnceKing's was a really strong case. Following this (before you/beneather/n1k0 voted) I felt it would have taken a miraculous case to get the votes switched around enough to get n1k0 off. The only other vote so far that day is on me, and i'm the other likely lynch for that day, so you two would pretty much have to move onto me to get any traction going. The moment I flip green, both of you guys are under massive pressure due to the double vote on cav, and tehn double switch to me. That's why I don't think flipping on to me was actually a viable play. That's exactly what I'm saying though. Two mafia voting together on day 1 is just bad mafia play (especially when there's only two mafia!). It means they cannot vote together to mislynch someone without looking scummy. If I was scumteam with n1k0 and our votes were split day 1, we'd be able to moved our vote onto you Valenius. Basically, if you think I'm mafia then you think I did a really bad play day 1 so I couldn't make a play day 2. But, you also think I did a really bad play day 1 with no meaningful gain. I mean Cavalinho even said he thought I was town (and also an asshole). Sigh, you're making this too hard. I want to be asleep right now, tucked up in bed confident that i've got the right person, this is just leading to an anxious night ahead Okay. Your vote was on Cav first, then followed by n1k0. IF we're going by the assumption that you are both mafia, then it's either an attempt to stick together to distance yourselves through arguing you're close.. hopefully you get what i mean. My attempts at putting that eloquently failed. Option 2, it's a mis-coordianted play where n1k0 had no idea and blindly followed you. Option 3, you aren't scum. I'm looking through dragoon's filter again, and im pulling out a few things when viwing him as if he's confirmed scum.. whether thats right idk. | ||
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