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Debated not making this, as no doubt someone will try and turn it into a negative.. anyhow:
I'm heading to bed. I'm leaving my vote on Robik, if only because I don't have enough of a read to switch it with what's been said since. I don't think he'll be lynched tonight either way.
Good luck for the next few hours, and I look forward to reading the outcomes in the morning.
o/
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Pre-Post: I hope the formatting's generally okay, had to edit in google docs due to size. I'm tired as f*ck no, so i'll either respond in an hour or two, or i'll try and make time in the morning before work.
First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean?
My read on IAmRobik: Robik, from my view came from pretty much nowhere. He’d had a very quiet game until mid-day 2. He then brings out that my first post (Good evening, I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!) was super scummy. Nobody else had even mentioned this post, the point was completely out of the blue. Following this, his read on theDragoon’s post (Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow) is that it’s the scummiest post in all of the pages so far. The early voting was pretty funny, nothing was really said there. It was started by a joke.. from Robik himself. The first posts, up until the face of george michael were pointless. The post’s of people just messing around at the start of day 1. To actively claim two of the scummiest posts in the whole thread were made around that sequence.. that’s a ridiculous read to be basing off of.
His two previous posts’ (Serious posts, i’m ignoring his earlier ones) were
On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing,
That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience?
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On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf
In my opinion pretty scummy. The first post in my view is akin to lighting a firework in a room, and running away. There was absolutely no follow up of any kind.
The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation.
Next: His point on my posts only being about uninteresting stuff and game setup. I didn’t take part in the early mess of random accusations, partly due to timezone, partly due to not being a fan of it. As i’ve stated before (getting sick of typing this now), my questions were short and answerable with a one-line answer, with no more discussion related to the question needed. I’d probably have brought up my thoughts on 2 or 3 man mafia later into day 1, if i’d have gotten an answer. Maybe i should’ve ‘mod question’d’ the question.
I do actually agree with his next point, regarding lynching for information. It’s a point i’ve expanded on further down.
Again, his response to my question on game knowledge: He stated it’s standard forum mafia setup and his post read to me as if he was annoyed I didn’t understand that. I’d discussed other things at that stage (incl my reads), yet again brought me up for discussing game mechanics (2 posts..). Again, as i’ve stated above, not caring about how many mafia there are is reckless.
His next point following on from n1k0’s post. On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins.
This was posted less than an hour following n1k0’s post. As i’m writing this, it’s been 2hours 30 since the last post (Onceking’s Feb 18, 03:56). Time is almost irrelevant. It’s a stupid point, and to use that to suggest i’m definitely Mafia? None of you would have any issues with that were the situations reversed?
+ Show Spoiler [Read this in regards to underlined par…] +I’ve underlined the above section, as it was what I was originally going to post. However, having had another scan further down page 14.. I completely misread his ‘play’ for that post. Apologies Robik, that was on a different level than I was running at. If, going ahead we assume that Robik was indeed supermafiaplayer, his vote stayed on n1k0.
Finally, my vote on Robik. I’ll admit, by the stage my vote went on I was already having a mafia vibe from Robik, and his following posts did little to dissuade that feeling. My ‘gut feeling’ was mostly what i’ve put into words above. I’ll apologise, but I tried to but this into words during the argument, but my brain was turning to mush. I couldn’t formulate words that accurately represented my reads.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
IAmRobik’s death:
Robik, if you’re reading this: Sorry for misreading you. Come the end of the game, you’ll feel the same way about me! However, everyone else: Answer this honestly. I’m the only one to have a vote on Robik. Cavalinho had one earlier, but moved it away, leaving me as the sole-voter for Robik. If I were mafia, choosing to kill Robik would be almost suicidal. I haven’t played particularly well through Day 1, so having the same level of discussion (see above point re: gut feeling) would be akin to stabbing myself through the heart, after writing you a note confessing to being mafia. I like to think of myself as a reasonably smart guy, not the smartest, but enough to avoid stabbing myself through the heart. It’s something i’ve managed to avoid so far in my life.
I don’t know who stands to benefit most from implicating me in the Death, but i’d probably choose to look at someone who’s stood in the back and let others accuse me Day2.
Town read on Cavalinho:
My read on Cavalinho was correct, as stated in my post.. Feb 18, 04:34
Other Thoughts:
Tolkien, I really think the the suggestion of formal lynching is pretty scummy. In a face to face game it works fine, or if we had.. idk, week long day's it would be possible. Today for example, as much as I had planned for this week to be empty, unavoidable stuff crops up that delays me from posting for ~ 8 hours. In that time, unless anybody brings up another vote, as you suggested at the end of your post (multiple cases), it’s a ridiculously easy stall for the mafia.[spoiler = Post I'm referring to]On February 18 2014 12:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:I think at least we should agree to put an end to the OMGUS'ing, and adopt a formal system of lynching. We've got 24 hours, so we can definitely get it organized before tomorrow. If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes). We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps. Any objections, or amendments to make? [/spoiler]
Tolkien turned suspicious based on Cavalinho’s analysis, which he had previously agreed with. See: Cavalinho’s Checking Strategy Post (Feb 17, 08:33).
theDragoon had a solid town read on Cavalinho, which clearly turned out to be true. Solid enough to let it affect his judgement of n1k0.
theDragoon also notes his suspicions of Lord Tolkien (Feb 18, 09:45), over his talk on specific blue roles. Note: My earlier comments about game setup were not role-directed, only total Mafia/Town numbers. I listed all of the possible roles in one of my posts, more as a confirmation to myself than a discussion point: I’ve made this defense several times so far, when questioned on it.
Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf.
Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post?
N1k0 How on earth you’ve got away with posting as little as you have so far is beyond me. Your reads on both Cavalinho and IAmRobik were horrendously wrong. For record: Believed Cavalinho was the most likely red in the game. Believed IAmRobik was not a vanilla townie. My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. I also massively disagree with your assumption that Amiko is town, because of his driving conversation then fading away. Amiko received an enormous amount of pressure due to his early posts, it seems reasonably logical that he’d step out of the driving seat with that pressure. Could you please clarify the wording on this following quote? Are you referring to LT or OK, when saying your wrong? I presume OK, but it changes my read on that sentence.
OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that i'm wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone.
Still on n1k0. In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. N1k0, if you’re agreeing with his post you either didn't think the numbers through, or blindly thought he was posting something logical and went along with it. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers? This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier.
Amiko’s read on OnceKing’s dissatisfaction on Cavalinho’s response to pressure. I happen to agree with OnceKing’s post, so therefore disagree with Amiko’s assessment of the situation. OK’s other paragraph is also one that I agree with. N1k0 has barely contributed, Robik’s statement that he had was wierd.
OnceKing. Whilst looking through your above post, it’s come to me that you’ve been ending a lot of your posts with questions deflecting away to other players, without massively answering them yourself. I believe your town at this stage, and you seem to have reasonable leads. You’re reading people better than I seem to be, so start posting hard-hitting questions directed at those people.. not just questions to the room.
Beneather. You’ve posted two posts that have any relevance to the game. In my view, everything else you try to claim with regards to my lack of useful posting is invalid. Your ‘reads’ post is the most re-hashed post so far. You’ve done exactly what others have brought people up for; discussing specific roles. Everything in your accusation post (except specifics on Robik) could be turned back on yourself, and even amplified to say you’ve actually made no contributions at all.
Top-Reads
Mafia: N1k0, and then depending on 2 or 3 man mafia: Amiko/Beneather (In no order). Town: OnceKing, theDragoon.
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theDragoon: Mostly due to his reads and reasoning on Cavalinho (Feb 17, 12:00). He's also picking up LT (I'm still undecided on as a whole, whether I'm misreading him idk) on his posts over being a veteran and risk, which I believe were decent enough town play. I don't feel a mafia would have taken that line of questioning, and would have let it play out instead.
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ebwop.. My name doesn't have an o in it.
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Once/Whoever else has reads, I'm happy for you to keep questioning me.. just make sure it isn't the only thing you do today.
If I'm lynched at the end of this day, and you've progressed nowhere on anyone else, I'm letting you know well in advance that you'll have wasted a day.
Keep on me if you want, but don't let others get away scott-free.
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On February 20 2014 06:33 N1k0 wrote:
Beneather I feel like he contriubited a little more than Valenious
I would however like any form of back-up on this point. I feel like I've contributed spades more than Beneather. Am I alone in this thought?
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You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him?
I answered this question in my previous post.
If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough.
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On February 20 2014 07:39 N1k0 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2014 07:27 Valenius wrote:You say you had a town read on Cavalinho, why didnt you switch your vote from Robik to me or LT in order to save him? I answered this question in my previous post. If i’d have had a stronger read at the time, I’d have moved it to them. I didn’t. LT/Amiko were my other choices at the time, but neither read was strong enough. What you are saying is you had a stronger read on Robik being mafia than Cavalinho being town?
Are those the words that came out of my mouth? Let's run this through logically.
Let's say i'm 50/50 town/mafia on both on LT and Amiko. (Probably slightly biased either side, but for this 50/50 is good enough.)
I have what I believe to be a reasonable read on Cavalinho as Town. I have at the time a reasonably strong read on Robik as mafia. I believe enough in my read to leave it on Robik. If I had a stronger read on either of the other two, I switch it. Switching without having a significantly higher read on either side is me flipping a coin. Do you disagree? There's a 5 in 7 (or 4 in 7) chance that either of them are town. Those odds aren't good enough for me to flip that coin.
Now, let's take a look at when the votes were actually made.
At the time of my leaving this thread to sleep, which I made a post about, the votes were:
cavalinho: (2) Amiko, N1k0
IAmRobik: (1) Valenius
Lord Tolkien: (1) OnceKing
Beneather: (0)
theDragoon: (0)
Amiko: (1) Lord Tolkien
OnceKing: (1)
N1k0: (1) cavalinho
Still haven't voted: theDragoon, Beneather, IAmRobik
At this point Cavalinho is set to be lynched
Please remember to unvote after voting. The cycle ends in 0m 0s. PM me if you have any questions or if you see a vote out of place.
At this time, switching my vote to either of my potential scum 'reads' changes nothing.
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Also, given that we're 3/8th's through the day.. no reason not to start my vote.
##vote N1k0
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On February 20 2014 08:18 N1k0 wrote: Sorry if you feel like i tried to put words in your mouth, i was confused of what your meant with your answer. Thanks for clearing that up.
Probably worded too strongly on my part. Apologies!
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On February 20 2014 08:37 theDragoon wrote:@Valenius: Show nested quote +My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler +This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote:Good evening I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit! He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler +Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction.
Did you read the longer explanation at the top of my post?
If you did and are still curious, ill respond in the morning.
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@LT, hopefully youll know which parts im on about without me quoting..
With regards to the vote numbers, youre right. Ive counted your vote on onceking (the numbers there) just not your name. It seems I misnoted cava's vote, but either way it still only brings amiko to 1 vote. (Please correct me here if you feel im wrong and ill take another look.
Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day.
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Christ, its active today isnt? Managed 10 hours without a post from any players. Beneather, where are you? Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today?
N1k0, theres 3 of us with votes on you now, and you havent made any real solid defense.. whats with that?
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Whilst theres very little going on:
As before I wont be awake at vote time. Ill be Heading off 3ish hours before. Sucks, but not much I can do about that.
As it stands, my vote is firmly on n1k0.
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OnceKing, Whilst the lack of .. anything.. has been happening: I've been thinking through various theories that could explain the inactivity.
1) Mafia are feeling safe because n1k0 is a mislynch, and that vote's almost sealed with this amount of activity. 2) Mafia don't have any faith in n1k0 avoiding a lynch, and are just distancing themselves from him. 3) They've emigrated to mars.
I also have another (slightly reaching) theory.
IF we have 3 mafia: There are currently 3 votes on n1k0, 1 vote on me, and 3 unaccounted for.
If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg.
I know it's an unlikely theory, but I think it should at least be considered. My question leading out from this is: theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
Everyone else (incl OnceKing): What do you think about these above theories? Obviously the last one is very.. hypothetical. Just consider it.
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On February 21 2014 05:54 Beneather wrote:
This is also a very good scum post. You are trying to put fear of the town losing if they do lynch you I like it! Scare town so they don't lynch mafia awesome ! You have one vote on you as of right now and you think it can simply change to you and are frightened by that chance. Why are you scared of being lynched? There is only one vote on you as of right now and you even brought up that it would be unlikely for it to be changed from n1k0 due to activity.
I've got very little pressure on me compared to n1k0. If I'm mafia; I post a few opinions early on, and sit back and blend into the inactivity. I don't post, multiple times throughout the day when basically nobody else is.
I'm the only one who posted for almost 1/4 of the day phase, There's no where I'd be willing to draw that sort of attention if I'm mafia. I'm not scared (I don't believe it's a possibility) of being lynched today, if it plays out as it is. If it plays out as it is, and the 3 missing votes are placed based on each of your reads; I believe n1k0 will be lynched.
The whole point of my theory post was to discuss the things that may happen if the day doesn't play out as it currently is. That situation scares me, yet that situation is only possible if all 3 of the Mafia choose to vote on me. You're asking me why I'd be scared if all 3 of the Mafia are voting on me? What sort of a question is that?. If there are only 2 mafia, then this situation is not possible, and 1 vote on me doesn't worry me.
Lastly, again: Do you really think I'd be making that sort of post (One that I knew would come under scrutiny based on earlier aggression against role/setup talk) if i'm trying to coast through the day?
I have a mafia read on you, your post is not making that read more townie..
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On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote: Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2.
Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads.
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theDragoon, i'm still looking for an answer to this earlier question:
theDragoon, do you believe your vote on me is better than a majority vote on n1k0? If this theory is correct, solidarity between town votes is needed.
OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations?
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Not going to post many thoughts throughout the night, but my reads are detailed reasonably well in my last few posts.
Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted.
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Right..
I won't expand much on these, but main thoughts heading into d3 are:
theDragoon, why was your vote still on me? I realise my 'theory' was pretty unlikely, but you keeping your vote on me still gave that a chance. Why didn't you switch?
N1k0's vote: Really, I don't think we can base too much off this. It's a complete chance pick between him throwing it on his mafia buddy, or choosing a random town. I'll look back through his filter to see if i see anything, but I wouldn't base too much off of this.
However, the votes on n1k0: I feel OnceKing's line of thought on this is sound, people more reluctant/took longer to vote on n1k0 should be first priorities.
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