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Foolish states several times that there is boatloads of evidence that proves he's town - but all I see in his posts is boatloads of evidence that Prome is town. He never debunks any theories that contain him as a scum, and in fact says that it's one of the only scenerios that makes sense.
So where is this boatloads of evidence that he's not scum? Can someone run it down for me?
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VE, so what about Toad? Anything to say about him?
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On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all.
Isn't that because I've been asking him?
As far as VE goes I'd like to try to understand how I'm VE's #2 personally above someone like Toad tbh.
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On January 26 2014 05:03 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all. Isn't that because I've been asking him?
Well..yeah, but still.
You've been going in that back and forth with him, but you also discuss VE. Why can't he? Unless he still didn't have time to properly read filters or something
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On January 26 2014 05:04 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:03 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all. Isn't that because I've been asking him? Well..yeah, but still. You've been going in that back and forth with him, but you also discuss VE. Why can't he? Unless he still didn't have time to properly read filters or something
I wouldn't accept not reading as an excuse by this point. Hell I didn't really accept it earlier.
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On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all.
I've said that I'd like to see if this continues and judge him the next day.
I know ongoing game... but check out SMB mini mafia d2 lynch and my post directly before that. That gives you a good idea. Shouldn't be a problem to mention this as I've already flipped. That'll maybe take you 60 seconds
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On January 26 2014 05:05 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all. I've said that I'd like to see if this continues and judge him the next day. I know ongoing game... but check out SMB mini mafia d2 lynch and my post directly before that. That gives you a good idea. Shouldn't be a problem to mention this as I've already flipped. That'll maybe take you 60 seconds
You think VE is doing something similar to what you did in that game?
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On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote:It just doesn't make sens: Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 11:26 Foolishness wrote:On January 24 2014 11:19 austinmcc wrote:
Side note, just putting this in thread while trying to chart stuff out.
IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town.
That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF.
Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome.
So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita. I brought this up in my earlier post as well. The options are limited and are not congruent with the rest of the thread. WoS or VE today.##Vote: WaveOfShadow into -> a little explanation, take note that it's explanation about WoS and VE -> Show nested quote +On January 25 2014 10:49 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:15 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:06 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba? As I said above, if you and kitaman want to run down the conspiracy theory hole even after there's a boatload of evidence proving my innocence and very little evidence proving yours (and VE's, and Toad's, and Kitaman's) then that's cool when you lose the game for the town. I win games. Silly question then in regards to your last post: Which two of the four of us are scum? And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options. That's not a silly question. I believe it is you and Toad. Though I go back and forth on whether it's Toad or VE. Kitaman went after sandroba a lot on day 1. He called him out early, voted on him (twice) and pushed his case. I don't see him doing that to his own scumbuddy (moreso since sandroba was inactive so his case just kept looking better over time). And what makes me the most likely scum candidate over someone like VE or Toad? What have I done in this game to deserve the 'Most objectively scummy award?' And you know, as an aside something gonzaw mentioned really strikes home with me here. You keep pushing the lynch on four of us---if Toad is scum as I surmise, then you win simply because you mislynch the other three, and you hope to gain the sweet lovely towncred you crave. Even IF I somehow go down today (which isn't happening), immediately upon my flip the thread realizes something is up and your 'lynch 4 and win' plan never comes to fruition. Me explaining why you are mafia and should be lynched: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=53#1056What I said about VE on day 1 still applies: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=23#447But as I said I would be fine lynching either of you. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=63#1246Now that I gave you indisputable evidence that Promethelax is town (regardless of what you think I am) who is your mafia team? As a side note, for the list of reasons I want to lynch you we can also add "diverting the town with strange conspiracy theories about what happened on the day 1 lynch". into -> Show nested quote +On January 25 2014 10:15 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:06 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba? As I said above, if you and kitaman want to run down the conspiracy theory hole even after there's a boatload of evidence proving my innocence and very little evidence proving yours (and VE's, and Toad's, and Kitaman's) then that's cool when you lose the game for the town. I win games. Silly question then in regards to your last post: Which two of the four of us are scum? And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options. That's not a silly question. I believe it is you [note: you=WoS] and Toad. Though I go back and forth on whether it's Toad or VE. Kitaman went after sandroba a lot on day 1. He called him out early, voted on him (twice) and pushed his case. I don't see him doing that to his own scumbuddy (moreso since sandroba was inactive so his case just kept looking better over time). aka, thought it's WoS and VE from the start of d2, when asked explains why WoS and VE into "yep it's totally WoS and the guy who's voting WoS. without any kind of explanation ##unvote
##vote Foolishness
Actually Toad's reasoning for suspecting Foolishness kinda comes out of nowhere doesn't it?
Like when I read Foolish's post, it seemed like VE or WoS for today's lynch, then later on he was calling out WoS AND Toad as the final scums. The first posts didn't seem like he thought both VE and WoS are scum, and that's what Toad is arguing (I think), but that's not how I read it.
Toad what is the basis of your Foolish suspicion? Before the sequence of posts that led to this post, you were townie on Foolish right?
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On January 26 2014 05:10 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:05 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 05:00 gonzaw wrote:
Toad, why are you refusing to talk about VE?
He's the hotspot in the thread at the moment, yet you are the only one going on a tangent with WoS about Foo or whatever and not discussing him at all. I've said that I'd like to see if this continues and judge him the next day. I know ongoing game... but check out SMB mini mafia d2 lynch and my post directly before that. That gives you a good idea. Shouldn't be a problem to mention this as I've already flipped. That'll maybe take you 60 seconds You think VE is doing something similar to what you did in that game?
no, he certainly doesn't have the balls to just die for town's sake like I did and the situation's different as well.
That's why I said I want to see what he's doing from now on. People being mad can do all kind of crazy shit. He said he's not mad anymore but apathetic. If this continues I'm more than willing to lynch him but I want to see if this changes with a sack of sleep.
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I DO TOO HAVE THE BALLS TO DIE FOR MY TOWN! YOU TAKE THAT BACK YOU CAD!!!
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On January 26 2014 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote:It just doesn't make sens: On January 24 2014 11:26 Foolishness wrote:On January 24 2014 11:19 austinmcc wrote:
Side note, just putting this in thread while trying to chart stuff out.
IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town.
That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF.
Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome.
So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita. I brought this up in my earlier post as well. The options are limited and are not congruent with the rest of the thread. WoS or VE today.##Vote: WaveOfShadow into -> a little explanation, take note that it's explanation about WoS and VE -> On January 25 2014 10:49 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:15 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:06 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba? As I said above, if you and kitaman want to run down the conspiracy theory hole even after there's a boatload of evidence proving my innocence and very little evidence proving yours (and VE's, and Toad's, and Kitaman's) then that's cool when you lose the game for the town. I win games. Silly question then in regards to your last post: Which two of the four of us are scum? And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options. That's not a silly question. I believe it is you and Toad. Though I go back and forth on whether it's Toad or VE. Kitaman went after sandroba a lot on day 1. He called him out early, voted on him (twice) and pushed his case. I don't see him doing that to his own scumbuddy (moreso since sandroba was inactive so his case just kept looking better over time). And what makes me the most likely scum candidate over someone like VE or Toad? What have I done in this game to deserve the 'Most objectively scummy award?' And you know, as an aside something gonzaw mentioned really strikes home with me here. You keep pushing the lynch on four of us---if Toad is scum as I surmise, then you win simply because you mislynch the other three, and you hope to gain the sweet lovely towncred you crave. Even IF I somehow go down today (which isn't happening), immediately upon my flip the thread realizes something is up and your 'lynch 4 and win' plan never comes to fruition. Me explaining why you are mafia and should be lynched: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=53#1056What I said about VE on day 1 still applies: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=23#447But as I said I would be fine lynching either of you. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=63#1246Now that I gave you indisputable evidence that Promethelax is town (regardless of what you think I am) who is your mafia team? As a side note, for the list of reasons I want to lynch you we can also add "diverting the town with strange conspiracy theories about what happened on the day 1 lynch". into -> On January 25 2014 10:15 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 25 2014 10:06 Foolishness wrote:On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba? As I said above, if you and kitaman want to run down the conspiracy theory hole even after there's a boatload of evidence proving my innocence and very little evidence proving yours (and VE's, and Toad's, and Kitaman's) then that's cool when you lose the game for the town. I win games. Silly question then in regards to your last post: Which two of the four of us are scum? And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options. That's not a silly question. I believe it is you [note: you=WoS] and Toad. Though I go back and forth on whether it's Toad or VE. Kitaman went after sandroba a lot on day 1. He called him out early, voted on him (twice) and pushed his case. I don't see him doing that to his own scumbuddy (moreso since sandroba was inactive so his case just kept looking better over time). aka, thought it's WoS and VE from the start of d2, when asked explains why WoS and VE into "yep it's totally WoS and the guy who's voting WoS. without any kind of explanation ##unvote
##vote Foolishness Actually Toad's reasoning for suspecting Foolishness kinda comes out of nowhere doesn't it? Like when I read Foolish's post, it seemed like VE or WoS for today's lynch, then later on he was calling out WoS AND Toad as the final scums. The first posts didn't seem like he thought both VE and WoS are scum, and that's what Toad is arguing (I think), but that's not how I read it. Toad what is the basis of your Foolish suspicion? Before the sequence of posts that led to this post, you were townie on Foolish right?
It all adding up.
Mafiaread on Holy suddenly disappears without anything.
Mafiaread on Sandro disappears without anything, even suddenly calling it a bad lynch when he's about to be lynched instead.
Mafiaread on WoS+me makes no sense whatsoever
Keeps focusing on explaining this Foolishness+prom situation instead of just posting and explaining any of his mafiareads or why they suddenly dropped away.
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I'm gonna sit back---you two should have a chat imo.
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Isn't that what him explaining the Foolishness/Prom situation is? Explaining why his mafiareads have changed?
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Foolishness, are you around?
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On January 26 2014 05:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
I DO TOO HAVE THE BALLS TO DIE FOR MY TOWN! YOU TAKE THAT BACK YOU CAD!!! ![[image loading]](http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view/410016/sam-cassell-testicle-dance-o.gif)
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On January 26 2014 05:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
Isn't that what him explaining the Foolishness/Prom situation is? Explaining why his mafiareads have changed?
go ahead and point at where he is:
On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2014 00:08 kitaman27 wrote:On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote:
Austin and sandroba might as well be afk until 3 pages ago, but since coming to the thread both have had strong appearances. I'm okay with them right now because they have brought things to the thread This is the post that still bothers me the most about Foolishness when he groups austin and sandroba in his null reads. Foolishness, I know you stated several times that you were treating sandroba as wait and see, but what are the "strong appearances" and "things brought to the thread" that you are referring to with sandroba's posts. I mentioned earlier that I disagreed with his assessment, but you didn't reply. Could you please point out what you were seeing? This is from a while ago, but his posts I saw when I made that post were: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=20#381http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=21#408And I thought these were fine at the time. A lot of you seem to think that I'm doing things 12 hours after they happened when in reality it's been a lot closer. I saw sandroba and austin both come to the thread and start posting, and I didn't post long after that (a few hours at most). As I said, my mindset was, "well they've been kinda afk so far, but as long as they keep posting I don't have an overwhelming reason to suspect them". Look at my list where I put austin and sandroba in the same category; this is exactly why. Gonzaw kinda brought this up here but let's go through these scenarios cause it's important. Scenario 1Foolishness is mafiaPromethelax is mafiaYes, after seeing that my case on WoS during day 1 didn't have as much merit as I thought at the time, I immediately decided to bus my own teammate. Not only that but I was also under scrutiny in the thread, why would I bring attention to another mafia member when I can push a case on someone else (HolyFlare? Marv maybe?). Better for me to just keep pushing on WoS or pick a new target, no sense is putting two mafia members under scrutiny on day 1. Speaking of HolyFlare, this is off topic from my current explanation but when I went back later on and reread his posts I thought he might be town. I don't even remember why but that's what I thought. I don't like reading into people getting replaced out so I focused my attention elsewhere. If HolyFlare is town I expect Toad to be able to prove it to us sooner and not later. And by sooner I mean end of night 2 at the absolute latest. Secnario 2Foolishness is MafiaPromethelax is townThis is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia). Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town. I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. Scenario 3Foolishness is TownPromethelax is mafiaWhy the hell did sandroba push onto Promethelax when he could have easily just been like, "yo guys I've caught Foolishness as mafia in three separate games on day 1/2, this is a free town lynch"? Doesn't make sense. Secnario 4Foolishness is TownPromethelax is TownI brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it. THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANTLook at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead. Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day.
THIS SHOWS THAT PROMETHELAX IS TOWNLook at all four above scenarios. Scenario 3 makes the least amount of sense cause then sandroba's vote is an awful mistake. Scenario 1 doesn't make sense cause that means I bussed my own teammate (when I could have easily gone after WoS from the start or anyone else) and oh btw also means Promethelax bussed sandroba last minute (keep in mind him and Hapa voted 1 minute apart so in essence they both hammered that vote). The remaining two scenarios both have Promethelax as town. Because he is. Regardless of what you think of me as well, though the above and my earlier posts should prove my innocence as well. If you guys wanna spend 9 hours going down the conspiracy theory hole then cool story bro. Or you can just look at the facts and deduce the following: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die.
Also my time is very limited today and tomorrow but I will try to be here when I can.
and no I'm not counting prom. The entire thing focuses on nothing but prom who wasn't even up for discussion at that point and everything there is is that almost final line Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. with nothing else to it
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On January 26 2014 05:24 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 05:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
I DO TOO HAVE THE BALLS TO DIE FOR MY TOWN! YOU TAKE THAT BACK YOU CAD!!!
I miss Ace.
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On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 08:42 gonzaw wrote:
The only thing I'm kind of scared is if actually Prome is mafia with sandro and this was some weird gambit, in which they planned on actually getting Foolishness lynched instead.
I mean, you do remember Prome's "We policy lynch lurkers no matter what!" line at the beginning of the game, and he then not doing anything at all regarding sandro right?
Oh god....oh god oh man oh god oh man :O O:
...lol. But other than that, I think we are on good tracks I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events. Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=41#820The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli. Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later. At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen. Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3. Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after. It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point. Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down. What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1. Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case. So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.
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I suppose mindvotes do not count
##vote: VisceraEyes
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On January 26 2014 05:29 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:On January 23 2014 08:42 gonzaw wrote:
The only thing I'm kind of scared is if actually Prome is mafia with sandro and this was some weird gambit, in which they planned on actually getting Foolishness lynched instead.
I mean, you do remember Prome's "We policy lynch lurkers no matter what!" line at the beginning of the game, and he then not doing anything at all regarding sandro right?
Oh god....oh god oh man oh god oh man :O O:
...lol. But other than that, I think we are on good tracks I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events. Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=41#820The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli. Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later. At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen. Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3. Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after. It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point. Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down. What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1. Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case. So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.
That would be an explanation if his suspects hadn't completly changed. So how did I end up together with WoS as his mainsuspects?
And again, when asked for reasoning he quoted stuff about you and WoS
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EPT
