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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Hey Toad.
On January 24 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote:On January 23 2014 06:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool in brief.
Am I mafia?
Is sand mafia?
Just based on likelihoods, doesn't need to be certain Yes Yes On January 23 2014 06:56 gonzaw wrote:So Foo. The contradiction I found against Holy made you think he was like 100% scum. Next time you come, you say "oh, Holy made that replacement post, maybe I'm overthinking this" and you keep going against Prome. Did Holy's post really convince you he's not that surefire scum you thought he was before? 1) To see how people would respond to it, but mostly to see how he responded. I quoted his first post (which is suspicious as I've already explained) so that you would know where I saw the evidence before I revealed my whole hand. You mean by calling you scum and tunneling you until your D1 lynch? Sounds like a great plan Foolishness! As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. There's no reason to do that despite actually thinking that the Prom lynch is tons better. Sounds very much like a (little bit) paranoid guy who's trying to get the best possible lynch he's seeing. Take into consideration that people were voting him as well and I see no reason for him to ever post like this.[as mafia (marv)]
On January 25 2014 07:45 Toadesstern wrote:He did mention BOTH Holy (aka me) and Sandro early, really early and he has been going on about it + Show Spoiler [example] +On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool in brief.
Am I mafia?
Is sand mafia?
Just based on likelihoods, doesn't need to be certain Yes Yes Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:56 gonzaw wrote:So Foo. The contradiction I found against Holy made you think he was like 100% scum. Next time you come, you say "oh, Holy made that replacement post, maybe I'm overthinking this" and you keep going against Prome. Did Holy's post really convince you he's not that surefire scum you thought he was before? 1) To see how people would respond to it, but mostly to see how he responded. I quoted his first post (which is suspicious as I've already explained) so that you would know where I saw the evidence before I revealed my whole hand. You mean by calling you scum and tunneling you until your D1 lynch? Sounds like a great plan Foolishness! As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. I find that post to be the prime example of this to be honest. So he thinks Sandro is mafia and very clearly states so, but doesn't vote him, he thinks marv is mafia, he thinks Holy is mafia and I guess he was on prome around that time already? That just doesn't make sense to me and yeah like you said he completly and utterly dropped both Holy and Sandro later on like nothing happened. Marv and Prom are understandable because they voted Sand but the Sand and Holy drops are weird.
Could you tell me how your attitude towards the same post morphed so remarkably? It literally went from "i don't see how mafia can post this" to "this is a prime example (of something scummy) and this doesn't make sense to me"
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Toad what's your read on Wave? You seemed quite sure he was mafia one moment and then that kinda disappeared off into the ether when you started finding Fool pretty scummy. Now you're "looking into kita+fool because it's likely to be a decision between those 2 today"
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Ill be around and we can chat marv. Ill probably need helop w/kita anyway. Had to stop in the middle of writing yesterday because of my guy and I couldn't concentrate.
And before anyone says it, once again I don't and will not use RL as anything other than a true explanatioon as either alignment.
Marv is it bad that I'm attempting to try to come around on Fool based on stuff kita said and looking at his massive analysis posts? I mean..glaring problem right now I see is its been well over 24h and he has not done anything of his own accord---im sure he'll show up eventually once pressured as always but then it'll seem meaningless.
I just think the key to this game may be figuring Fool out once and for all. Are his analysis posts actually 'flawless' as he says? Despite all of the possible distraction, tunneling a nd odd reluctance to talk, is this town Fool's way? If so, again from my perspective Toad (or kita) could be the best lynch.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
I've not played that many games with kita and the ones I have (or observed) I've struggled with his alignment too. This could be fun :D
Going through Fool next when I can steal a chunk of time anyways. Nothing bad on coming around on anyone, as long as it's for the right reasons. We need to get today right really. At any rate I think it's reasonably obvious from all the holes that people have been poking that Fool's analysis isn't really "flawless". Whether that makes him scum is obviously a different matter.
Came out of Toad's filter less sure than I'd like, seems he's gained more impetus as the game went on after a really weak start, but there's a sprinkling of wtf posts in there as well. He needs to answer my questions anyways.
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Also we probably need some other people to pull some weight here.
Prome I'm looking at you.
Ill be back and active in about 3h for the rest of the day and then evening.
My hope is that we can figure this shit out before tomorrow because I won't be around like...at all tomorrow until after lynch.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Alrighty. I have chess this evening but should be able to play a bit afterwards.
Prome is definitely being particularly smelly recently.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote:
Secnario 2
Foolishness is Mafia
Promethelax is town
This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia).
Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town.
I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1.
Secnario 4
Foolishness is Town
Promethelax is Town
I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it.
So these are the two scenarios we're working with effectively. At least in the first scenario, there's some stretching going on there. Specifically to the bolded middle paragraph - if Fool is mafia, then presumably sandroba is going to come in and vote Promethelax over Foolishness. His assertion "His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy" he uses on the flipside in the 2nd scenario too (see bold). So it kinda comes down a little bit to sandroba's posts around then. What was sand doing? A fake push? A real vote? Given how awful sandroba is at mafia, I don't see much reason why his voting for Prome wasn't "authentic" - I mean, he actually went and found a quote from a different game and everything, for sand that's quite the effort... it seems that the assumptions that Fool is pushing at us collapse around here.
Underlined stuff more for irritation value - kita being on prome and sticking there (also despite voting sand before) and Holy being afk. They both fit with a mafia Fool. Annoyingly doesn't get us so far.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
No, WoS turn around on Promethelax is not congruent with a town mindset, and this is what I meant by he's ignoring key information about the lynch. That is a mafia agenda to push, he doesn't want to bring light to the things the day 1 votes say (such as the 5 people voting for sandroba should be confirmed town).
Fool, what's the point in Wave doing this as mafia when literally noone agreed with him and it just made him stick out from the crowd?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:43 Foolishness wrote:
Let me clarify again that I am perfectly happy with VE getting lynched. I just have a strong read on WoS and VE's frustration makes sense as a town frame of mind.
When you say things like, "VE didn't push a lynch day 1, he wasn't accomplishing anything with his posts, he has since been not contributing" I have nothing to say except, "yep, I agree". I am not deflecting off his lynch, I just think WoS is slightly better and will tell us more. If you guys are convinced that VE needs to die now and that WoS is town I will gladly ablige; I've even admitted I could be wrong on both accounts.
On January 26 2014 07:58 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:53 kitaman27 wrote:
Didn't you want to lynch Holy before sandroba? Has Toad's play changed your mind on him or is it just that WoS's and VE's play is just much worse since then? Yes I did. I thought Holy was mafia based on his posts and his replacement posts. After the lynch I went back and reread them and thought "okay I can see him as town saying these things even if they are suspect". As I said earlier I go back and forth on his posts. Toad seems like he's trying to figure things out, and even if I don't agree with his arguments he's doing things for the town and VE is not. I can't argue against VE here. I'm very confident about my read on WoS at this point, it will be reevaluated for the following day because he should be lynched asap.
This is so so wonky
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 26 2014 09:45 Foolishness wrote:Gonzaw I'm not answering or responding to anything you say until you answer my question to you: Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 08:56 Foolishness wrote:
Question for you now: this isn't the first time I've explained something and you said you were "not convinced". Furthermore, when I bring up facts and thoughts about the game thus far you seem to ask questions about other related things instead of bringing up my points directly and either refuting them or disagreeing with them. This tells me that you are actually in agreement with a lot of things that I'm saying and are just trying to look for things about me that may or may not be there. Are you so concerned about the slim chance of me being mafia that you are willing to sacrifice the good of the town just to make sure?
On January 26 2014 09:47 Foolishness wrote:
And I'd suggest you answer that question very carefully.
On January 26 2014 10:01 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 09:58 gonzaw wrote:
1)Show me which times I was "not convinced" about direct stuff that I apparently agreed on
2)Just because you make sense on somethings it doesn't mean you are town (for instance the "vote analysis"). Oops! Wrong answer.
This is even wonkier though, seems like Fool is threatening gonzaw, or gonzaw is suspicious, or something? But then immediately following these posts Fool is treating gonzaw as town again.
What do you make of this Wave? (or anyone about who cares to read)
None of Fool's recent posting reads like it comes from a townie, from his intransigence on the Wave read (along with the rationale), to the being ok but not ok but ok with the VE lynch, to being sure about Wave but saying he might be wrong, to the weird threats to gonzaw. I am frowning.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
For someone who says that every post of his has a purpose, those were pretty useless. If they were addressed towards austin. you or myself, then I'd wouldn't mind it as much, but if he is still suspicious of gonzaw by day three, then he isn't paying attention.
marv, where do you stand on the final two mafia? I feel like you have been on the fence for a while. I know I'm guilty of the same thing, but I feel like another perspective may help.
Is austin still on your untouchable list? Same question for austin, is marv still untouchable? The reason I'm asking is because we're potentially once cycle away from lylo. Out of the prom, austin, marv group, it seems like Prom has been the least helpful this game, but I'm still having a tough time thinking how a double bus makes sense with him and sandroba.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 28 2014 00:44 kitaman27 wrote:
For someone who says that every post of his has a purpose, those were pretty useless. If they were addressed towards austin. you or myself, then I'd wouldn't mind it as much, but if he is still suspicious of gonzaw by day three, then he isn't paying attention.
marv, where do you stand on the final two mafia? I feel like you have been on the fence for a while. I know I'm guilty of the same thing, but I feel like another perspective may help.
Is austin still on your untouchable list? Same question for austin, is marv still untouchable? The reason I'm asking is because we're potentially once cycle away from lylo. Out of the prom, austin, marv group, it seems like Prom has been the least helpful this game, but I'm still having a tough time thinking how a double bus makes sense with him and sandroba.
Yep I'm somewhat fence-sitty right this moment, gonna be until at least after I look at your dense filter (will do that after chess, got work stuffs atm to commit that much time).
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I'd still be very surprised if Prome was mafia. If he is then mafia did some #retardplays day 1, and i don't think they're retards.
Finding it hard to believe austin could be mafia as well. His paranoia-levels regarding me seem to be pitched just right. We have a history and I think how he's treated me in general is super hard to fake. I've not been frowning when he's been niggling at me.
We've had one unfortunate lynch, don't really want to throw away everything I've thought about and believed up until now when there are still actual likely mafia on the table.
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On January 27 2014 20:40 marvellosity wrote:Hey Toad. Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote:On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote:On January 23 2014 06:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool in brief.
Am I mafia?
Is sand mafia?
Just based on likelihoods, doesn't need to be certain Yes Yes On January 23 2014 06:56 gonzaw wrote:So Foo. The contradiction I found against Holy made you think he was like 100% scum. Next time you come, you say "oh, Holy made that replacement post, maybe I'm overthinking this" and you keep going against Prome. Did Holy's post really convince you he's not that surefire scum you thought he was before? 1) To see how people would respond to it, but mostly to see how he responded. I quoted his first post (which is suspicious as I've already explained) so that you would know where I saw the evidence before I revealed my whole hand. You mean by calling you scum and tunneling you until your D1 lynch? Sounds like a great plan Foolishness! As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. There's no reason to do that despite actually thinking that the Prom lynch is tons better. Sounds very much like a (little bit) paranoid guy who's trying to get the best possible lynch he's seeing. Take into consideration that people were voting him as well and I see no reason for him to ever post like this.[as mafia (marv)] Show nested quote +On January 25 2014 07:45 Toadesstern wrote:He did mention BOTH Holy (aka me) and Sandro early, really early and he has been going on about it + Show Spoiler [example] +On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool in brief.
Am I mafia?
Is sand mafia?
Just based on likelihoods, doesn't need to be certain Yes Yes Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:56 gonzaw wrote:So Foo. The contradiction I found against Holy made you think he was like 100% scum. Next time you come, you say "oh, Holy made that replacement post, maybe I'm overthinking this" and you keep going against Prome. Did Holy's post really convince you he's not that surefire scum you thought he was before? 1) To see how people would respond to it, but mostly to see how he responded. I quoted his first post (which is suspicious as I've already explained) so that you would know where I saw the evidence before I revealed my whole hand. You mean by calling you scum and tunneling you until your D1 lynch? Sounds like a great plan Foolishness! As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. I find that post to be the prime example of this to be honest. So he thinks Sandro is mafia and very clearly states so, but doesn't vote him, he thinks marv is mafia, he thinks Holy is mafia and I guess he was on prome around that time already? That just doesn't make sense to me and yeah like you said he completly and utterly dropped both Holy and Sandro later on like nothing happened. Marv and Prom are understandable because they voted Sand but the Sand and Holy drops are weird. Could you tell me how your attitude towards the same post morphed so remarkably? It literally went from "i don't see how mafia can post this" to "this is a prime example (of something scummy) and this doesn't make sense to me"
On January 27 2014 20:55 marvellosity wrote:
Toad what's your read on Wave? You seemed quite sure he was mafia one moment and then that kinda disappeared off into the ether when you started finding Fool pretty scummy. Now you're "looking into kita+fool because it's likely to be a decision between those 2 today"
@ 1st quote
First quote inside first quote was something that was right after I finished catching up or very shortly afterwards. I looked through those quickly, saw them and had the kind of "too scummy to be scummy" idea and therefore ignored it.
Austin kept bringing it up so I looked into it again and I found more and more stuff like that that just added up, like when Gonzaw asked me, which seems to be the 2nd quote inside the first quote, asking about basicly the same thing just between Holy <-> Foolish and it stood out to me as something that made no sense.
Now if you look at my case on foolish it's mostly about how he makes sense when he argues, really about whatever, but just suddenly goes full retard whenever he comes to a conclusion and I couldn't agree with anything he said once he got to some kind of conclusion and those things just really added up to a point that I don't think it's a coincidence anymore.
So yeah, at first I only saw that one thing (foolishness calling Sandro mafia and calling Sandro a bad lynch some later) and took it as bad phrasing and his conviction of the prom lynch. The more I saw stuff like that the less I was willing to just take it as a coincicende so it obviously changed from a "whatever" to a "this guy just doesn't make any kind of sense".
@ 2nd quote
He's still up there. Let's use kita-combinatorics to explain this a bit faster because I'm in a rush:
I don't think foolish + WoS makes a lot of sense. Agree? Therefore it's either WoS+Kita or Foolish+Kita for me. That's super simplified but that's about the reason why I'd rather talk about Kita+Foolish today than WoS. Kita because he's in both of these and my piechart and I'd say Foolish is certainly more likely to be mafia than WoS at this point. I still don't give a crap about what Gonzaw said about WoS though. Just like austin I'm pretty damn sure there were people who just said that WoS has to be town because of his filterlength which is bullshit and I still don't particularly like the posts he did. People get in here and say he contributed, go back and read his 2 posts about VE and prom. You yourself, even gonzaw, the guy who praised him as a saint, were shitting on those because they made no sense whatsoever and I could see him trying to get towncred from VE that way. It's no about wether people are right or wrong, it's about wether their way of comming to a conclusion makes sense and it didn't in WoS posts. Everyone seems to have forgotten the WoS <-> Prom thing altogether. I still don't like that either.
But like I said, I'm somewhat in a hurry, won't be back for 2 hours or so.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
game is hard yo
If Fool and Wave don't make sense to you as a team, than presumably by mutual exclusion one of them has to be town, but you're still suspicious of both by the looks of things. So which is it? And if kita is the common factor between both of them, why aren't you pushing kita as confirmed mafia?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking.
At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so?
On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:
I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now.
I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today.
I think this post actually makes a Toad + Foolishness pair more likely. A lot of the time when you see a bus, you'll hear a mafia player say something along of lines of "I've told you guys, but you didn't listen" when the town alternative is about to flip. It could be a case of Toad knowing more than he should, since I think it definitely makes more sense to think that reading Foolishness the next day would be easier than reading the player that got frustrated with the thread and voted himself.
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On January 28 2014 01:22 marvellosity wrote:
game is hard yo
If Fool and Wave don't make sense to you as a team, than presumably by mutual exclusion one of them has to be town, but you're still suspicious of both by the looks of things. So which is it? And if kita is the common factor between both of them, why aren't you pushing kita as confirmed mafia?
you're making me post half naked...
It's a combination out of:
1) I did make a post during night saying that I'll be looking into kita, that's why Kita is up there for me to begin with. Sadly TL striked for me yesterday and I couldn't get it done just yet
2) I don't think mafia would sit back chilling and playing safe after losing Sandro d1 and having 5 confirmed townies. There's bound to be some risky play so while I do consider it unlikely I don't consider it impossible at all under these situations.
Now I'm really off, sorry
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On January 28 2014 01:33 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking. At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so?
I think we just need to find one mafia and lynch it. Combinations can help to a degree, but we should give less weight to interactions that happened post D1. When mafia gets lynched D1 and a bunch of people look good for it, scum are likely going to have to be unconventional to a degree, and part of that is potentially funky interactions with each other.
Just generally wrt replacements, TL towns almost never lynch replacements the phase they replace in.
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On January 28 2014 00:06 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 09:45 Foolishness wrote:Gonzaw I'm not answering or responding to anything you say until you answer my question to you: On January 26 2014 08:56 Foolishness wrote:
Question for you now: this isn't the first time I've explained something and you said you were "not convinced". Furthermore, when I bring up facts and thoughts about the game thus far you seem to ask questions about other related things instead of bringing up my points directly and either refuting them or disagreeing with them. This tells me that you are actually in agreement with a lot of things that I'm saying and are just trying to look for things about me that may or may not be there. Are you so concerned about the slim chance of me being mafia that you are willing to sacrifice the good of the town just to make sure? Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 09:47 Foolishness wrote:
And I'd suggest you answer that question very carefully. Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 10:01 Foolishness wrote:On January 26 2014 09:58 gonzaw wrote:
1)Show me which times I was "not convinced" about direct stuff that I apparently agreed on
2)Just because you make sense on somethings it doesn't mean you are town (for instance the "vote analysis"). Oops! Wrong answer. This is even wonkier though, seems like Fool is threatening gonzaw, or gonzaw is suspicious, or something? But then immediately following these posts Fool is treating gonzaw as town again. What do you make of this Wave? (or anyone about who cares to read) None of Fool's recent posting reads like it comes from a townie, from his intransigence on the Wave read (along with the rationale), to the being ok but not ok but ok with the VE lynch, to being sure about Wave but saying he might be wrong, to the weird threats to gonzaw. I am frowning.
I've mentioned this in talking about Fool before.
The bullying Foolishness has been doing---is that typical of him? Because on its own that's incredibly anti-town, whatever his reasoning (I'm trying to my own thing/what's best for town and you're messing with me etc).
As far as his utter confidence in the read of me, again it's the fact that he has held a tenacious grasp on that read when he didn't bother considering my D2 work more so than his willingness to drop it before the lynch imo, though I agree it looks fishy.
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Let us talk about Toad for a sec.
On January 28 2014 01:33 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking. At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so? Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:
I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now.
I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today. I think this post actually makes a Toad + Foolishness pair more likely. A lot of the time when you see a bus, you'll hear a mafia player say something along of lines of "I've told you guys, but you didn't listen" when the town alternative is about to flip. It could be a case of Toad knowing more than he should, since I think it definitely makes more sense to think that reading Foolishness the next day would be easier than reading the player that got frustrated with the thread and voted himself.
This kind of post is what makes me think kita is town (along with that one I mentioned earlier, the long one). How easy is a post like this to make when he's talking about theoretical mafia POV? From a town perspective it sounds like a completely realistic mafia perspective but so much that it sounds fishy. Am I explaining this right? Essentially it truly sounds as though this is town trying to explain things from mafia POV rather than mafia explaining mafia POV.
A lot of Toad's posts around that point (which I mentioned and Toad and I argued about briefly) just reek
On January 26 2014 03:21 Toadesstern wrote:
See I don't even mind that WoS vote but I really think Foolishness is the much better option today. The guy makes sense whenever he posts but as soon as he comes to some conclusion Sandro bad lynch despite having Sandro in his scumreads earlier on / WoS + Toad scumteam despite me voting WoS at that time and still harboring fuzzy feelings for him (not in a romantic way) it just goes batshit crazy.
He doesn't even feel the need to explain his mafiareads and instead writes wall of texts about his relationship with prome.
Like I said, I don't mind that WoS vote one bit but do you really think he's a better lynch than foolishness?
All it looked like around this point in the day was him trying to get himself out of the 'strong scumread' on me based on his horrible case on post earlier.
He tries to defend/explain himself here, but it just doesn't jive with me
On January 26 2014 04:35 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 04:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 04:26 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 26 2014 04:24 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ok a few thigns:
VE wtf was that vote on me? I don;t even understand your reasoning for it. Because I think you're town and no one else does? Is that it?
As far as marv;s argument, the problem is not only would you be comparing mafia to town mindset, you also have to remember that VE and I are two different people. My motivation has been ridiculously on this game not only because I'm not and want to win, but because of the game itself. Marv you remember me asking you pre-game if I should even play in this game? Part of my motivation this game is to show myself (and others) that I deserve to be in here. In any other game I highly doubt I would be spending such a great deal of the free time I barely have to post in massive bursts. VE may not be similarly motivated as town (or obviously as scum).
Now as for Foolishness, call me dumb but I'm starting to worry about how quickly it's being picked up. Especially by people like Toad. And even then if I'm right and Foolishness truly is mafia, is everybody going to be bamboozled by him again when he comes back with an hour to go and posts a flashy essay? It was that and the fact that Hapa suspected you and died - but gonzaw pointed out that he posted his suspicion AFTER the scum had made their shot, so it comes back to the "he's the only one who's right about me" which is NOT a strong enough point to lynch imo. It'd be pretty ballsy (if I'm right about you) as scum to be the only one. Hapa's suspicion is a stronger point if anything and I'll grant you that, but surprisingly nobody brought it up. And his case on me was vastly different than anyone else's I believe---I think it actually wasn't terrible. So, is Toad's voteswitch authentic or is he trying to jump off a losing train early and trying to gain some towncred on a bus? Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 08:13 Toadesstern wrote:On January 24 2014 08:07 Promethelax wrote:
So hapa has
WoS
VE
Holy
Fool
as scummy. I was hoping he had a clear target before the resolution deadline that would have suggested that he was killed to push a single lynch.
In terms of history: marv or I are the most likely to kill Hapa as scum n1 I think. I actually disagree. Quick check through his filter, ignoring his last post because it was before deadline, will show up WoS a lot more than anyone else, especially if you compare it to VE who would be the one to show up more in Gonzaw's filter. So as I'm still going with the WoS and VE both look really bad, especially given that they both equally failed to do anything d1 deadline ( clicky! here to see why that's an issue I'd lean on WoS even more now. ##vote WoS you're welcome. Also wtf is that kind of a question. I'm getting cold feet here as I'm seeing you and VE on the same guy I want lynched and you have the balls to call Foolishness 100% mafia and say it's either a bus from me or a townie being right? Sure I think Foolishness is the best lynch but I wouldn't have the balls to call it that 100% certain oO Also when I voted foolish it was 2-2-2 in votes. I might be called the reason you're "wagon" is losing steam, again you're welcome
Like all of Toad's activity since that point feels like subtle buddying/apologizing to me for earlier D2 to get me off of him, and it actually kind of worked for a while.
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