[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 103

On January 27 2014 07:55 gonzaw wrote:
Arggh I read Prome's filter and get confused. I can see the stuff Wave and VE posted about him, some stuff can be constructed as scummy. His lack of activity this weekend (based on IRL) doesn't help.

But then it confuses me because of the sandro shit, his jump on sandro's vote, and the fact that if Foo flips scum he just has to be town.

Dunno wtf to think of him. Just leave him be until LYLO I guess, then get all tin-foil hat wonky

On January 27 2014 07:57 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, before the clock hits midnight, you guys have any thoughts about the shit I posted last page? Mostly about that stuff I said about Holy back on D1. Austin, do you still believe it doesn't really matter much?
Marv, you used it as a good argument to think Holy was scum, then backed out when he made that "I sub out" post. After reading what I posted again, do you still think it's valid or not?

On January 27 2014 07:57 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, before the clock hits midnight, you guys have any thoughts about the shit I posted last page? Mostly about that stuff I said about Holy back on D1. Austin, do you still believe it doesn't really matter much?
Marv, you used it as a good argument to think Holy was scum, then backed out when he made that "I sub out" post. After reading what I posted again, do you still think it's valid or not?

On January 27 2014 08:02 marvellosity wrote:
austin, you know that brainz thing is a big load of bullshit, right?

On January 27 2014 08:13 marvellosity wrote:
yes I know. But *I* think that as far as reasons to think someone town go, that one's not such a hot one.

On January 27 2014 12:24 kitaman27 wrote:
I ended up coming to my senses and skipped the pro bowl. I read through Foolishness's filter like three times and like 12 of his past games. While there was one mafia game on his which showed a focus on vote analysis over scum hunting, I also found several town games where he was happy to provide a list of players that likely contained the remaining mafia and lynch off that. I had anticipated that as mafia he was more likely to bully reads, but I didn't get a strong sense of that after reading. I did find once instance where he failed to acknowledge the existing cases against him, though I don't really want to read into that much,

Going into the cycle, I intended to write a post about how he was mafia due to the lack of strong analysis on why certain players are mafia, unwillingness to reevaluate his read on Wave after 100 posts of new content, the way he seems to be willing to bet the game on marv/austin being town without a hint of concern and his priorities in using his time. All of these concepts still apply. However, I went into the evening more confident than I am now. In the end, I want a chance to at least look at the alternatives another time, mainly toad. I'm frustrated to see that I don't have a great amount of content to provide after spending another 2-3 hours reading. I'm back to work on Monday and I might be pretty busy in the evening, but I'll do the best that I can to put more time into this.

On January 27 2014 12:24 kitaman27 wrote:
I ended up coming to my senses and skipped the pro bowl. I read through Foolishness's filter like three times and like 12 of his past games. While there was one mafia game on his which showed a focus on vote analysis over scum hunting, I also found several town games where he was happy to provide a list of players that likely contained the remaining mafia and lynch off that. I had anticipated that as mafia he was more likely to bully reads, but I didn't get a strong sense of that after reading. I did find once instance where he failed to acknowledge the existing cases against him, though I don't really want to read into that much,

Going into the cycle, I intended to write a post about how he was mafia due to the lack of strong analysis on why certain players are mafia, unwillingness to reevaluate his read on Wave after 100 posts of new content, the way he seems to be willing to bet the game on marv/austin being town without a hint of concern and his priorities in using his time. All of these concepts still apply. However, I went into the evening more confident than I am now. In the end, I want a chance to at least look at the alternatives another time, mainly toad. I'm frustrated to see that I don't have a great amount of content to provide after spending another 2-3 hours reading. I'm back to work on Monday and I might be pretty busy in the evening, but I'll do the best that I can to put more time into this.

My opinion on him will likely change based on his return to the thread, similar to sandroba.

On January 24 2014 06:01 kitaman27 wrote:


This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip.

In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after.

In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario.



Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either.

At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode.



Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet.



Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way.



I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.



At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day.

The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom

I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well.

I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that.

Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.

It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time.

I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up.

On January 27 2014 12:55 kitaman27 wrote:
I really wish I had thought to look at how he handles high pressure situations to draw the comparison to day one. bah. Maybe I'll take a look again with this in mind, but it's tough to warrant using the time that way if I'm not getting much return. I don't want to get to the point where I'm spending so much time that this game isn't fun anymore. Database shows 0/19 for town lynches.