EPT/in
Resistance 3
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
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1. In the voting thread, will there be any unvoting allowed, or do you only get a single chance to vote? 2. Is there to be no outside communication between spies? | ||
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On December 24 2013 11:59 FirmTofu wrote: Thanks. I'll check it out. Do you have any suggestions for the # of people sent per day? In the official rules for number of players sent, it is 3,4,4,5(2),5 where 5(2) means that two fails must be required. From my experiences, this setup does work out with a fairly balanced winrate. This setup still has one major flaw in it, but it will be fine. I'm curious to see how the game changes with the voting thread though. Typically the game is played with everyone voting simultaneously, but having an open voting thread can really change the game strategically. | ||
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Anyways, other than Koshi who wants to be in, are there any other suggestions on who should be sent on the first mission? Since it's the first one, I'm alright with any team that goes in. | ||
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On December 27 2013 13:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: So everybody is basically saying the same thing over and over again. There are 6 townies. If you exclude yourself there are 5 townies. Even the last missions require only max 5 people. You can select an all town team even if you exclude yourself. Therefore, in case you are considered not necessarily town and your team would be refused if you are in it, it's better to select other people. If you select a team which gets 8 nay votes, it tells us nothing. Voting patterns are the most important thing (obviously besides mission results) in this game because there are no flips. Anyone who refuses to cooperate in mission selection as a leader and pushes through a selection that is doomed to get a fuckton of nay votes should not go a mission. That's what i think. I think you are scum because of this. In 5 pl setup this works because it's actually better to pass the first mission as scum, in 9 pl setup this is different and not necessarily true. Seems to me like an attempt to stop the conversation before it even started. CR - Does Koshi seem town to you? Why? Why does not asserting for myself or a specific person to go on the first mission mean I'm scum? Is the logic that since scum will want to fail the first mission, then if I am town, I need to get into the mission to reduce the chances that there will be scum in there? | ||
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On December 27 2013 15:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: You are supposed to suggest an all town team, for every mission. You don't seem to be giving any shits who goes onto a mission 1 and who doesn't. It's not only results and voting that wins the game, it's the discussion behind picks and people's responses on top of that. What you said was basically "just pick some people who want to go on a mission and let's get over with it". That's scummy. I don't agree with that, but we can revisit this subject on day 2 if you want. Anyway, we need to get some picks on the table. If Adam doesn't have any solid picks right now, we can throw some names on the table to discuss, and if Adam agrees, then he can put them up for a vote. | ||
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On December 28 2013 04:00 Grackaroni wrote: True, I am by far and away the best candidate for selection.  I'm thinking that Hopeless could be a better option because there is a pretty large disparity between his town play and scum play. I'm not sure a Rayn/Koshi/VE team would pass, and if it didn't, I could have a harder time discerning alignments off of it regardless of their activity. Hopeless wasn't a big fan of leaders not picking themselves, and I suppose this can also apply to people suggesting teams. If he's more comfortable with your picks if you were in it, would you say Adam/Grack/Hopeless would be a decent choice for the first mission? | ||
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On December 28 2013 05:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: CR could you answer my question i asked you last night? I would prefer to discuss the matter on day 2 as it fits in quite well with the results and the voting of the mission. Are you keen on getting a read on me today? I don't have a strong preference of getting into the mission today. | ||
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On December 28 2013 06:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: omfg what? If I don't deliver something tangible on day 2, feel free to confirm me as mafia, or bad town, or whatever. | ||
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You are supposed to suggest an all town team, for every mission. You don't seem to be giving any shits who goes onto a mission 1 and who doesn't. It's not only results and voting that wins the game, it's the discussion behind picks and people's responses on top of that. What you said was basically "just pick some people who want to go on a mission and let's get over with it". That's scummy. Green - I agree Red - I disagree Blue - We can throw that up to debate case by case | ||
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On December 28 2013 12:04 FirmTofu wrote: I'll assume yay unless you type nay for whatever reason. Leaders should have to yay or nay their team. There's plenty good reason for a leader to reject his own team, and in this format, the order in which people yay/nay brings good information, so I think we should still require leaders to formally yay/nay as well. | ||
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From my experiences, leaders commonly reject their own team. The reason is not because of a lack of confidence, but because the most information and discussion comes from more rounds being played. Great information is gained through seeing other leaders' picks and people's voting patterns from round to round. If the leader feels that more information can be gained, then he would propose a team, and then reject it himself. Here's one such scenario that occurs often: We are on the 5th round and the score is 2-2. We still don't know exactly who the mafia are, but we put our towniest 5 on the mission. The leader rejects the mission making the vote fail in a 4-5 vote. However, two people who were not on the mission yayed it. This confirms those two as mafia, and indicates a high likelihood that there is a spy that was sent on the mission. If the leader passed it, the game would have been lost right there. Our voting format is a bit different than the real Resistance, but the concept is the same. I would expect that leaders would not yay/nay until the deciding vote. If new information arises that would indicate that the team is not good, then the leader would reject it. | ||
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On December 29 2013 00:30 VisceraEyes wrote: Well if the guy who picked the team isn't confident, why should I be? I don't even have to read to nay-vote the team. XD I'm reading anyway, you rascals. On the first mission, only spies would be confident in a team. This doesn't indicate whether or not the team is good team, so you have to make your own judgement. Everybody has their own set of information from their perspective, and knowing things that other people don't, you can sometimes be confident in a team that someone else isn't. For example, if you go on a mission with two other people and it gets sabotaged, as town, you know that at least one of the two other people is a spy. However people outside the mission only know that it's at least one of you three. From then on, you are playing the game with more information than others. You know that any mission that includes both the people you were with will have a spy. Other people don't know this, but they do know that if you yay the mission, it will confirm you as spy. As you narrow down who is a spy from your perspective, you can be more confident in a certain team than the leader who proposed it if that leader does not have the same set of information as you. | ||
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On December 29 2013 00:50 Corazon wrote: Is it typical for the first mission team to be approved mostly uncontested? Most the time, there are not many people who contest the first team. It all depends on who the spies are and where they are positioned. The main objective of the spies at this point of the game is to get on the second mission. If the spies are not on mission 2, then the game is very hard to win. Most the time, if the second mission passes, you send the same team for the third mission, and if that passes, add someone random for the fourth mission, and that's 3 missions passed right there. A lot of time, if the first mission passes, the next leader will just put himself in and the first three. This means that it is quite important for spies to make sure there is either a spy on the first team, or the next leader in line is a spy. One good opening on the first mission is to force spies to make the first move by playing passively and indifferently. Let the leader make their pick without any information on the board. At this time if a couple people are like "woah woah woah, I don't like this team", they could be spies disagreeing because there are no spies on the team. After all, nobody said anything so far so there is no other reason why you would not like a certain team. This is where the discussion begins to figure out where everyone stands. If there is no contest at all for the first team, there's a higher chance of a spy already being on the team or the next leader in line is a spy. There is also a lot of meta play that spies can do, like trying to contest a team that has a spy on it. I don't often see spies letting a team go if there are no spies on it, and the next leader in line is not a spy. This could be done as a meta play to see if a town would say "hey, there's no contest, something is up", but then it becomes a catch-22 where you are creating contest by contesting the team because it is uncontested. Anyway, none of this applies to this game, so whatever. | ||
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On December 29 2013 04:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: CR, why are you talking about spy strategies? There are some people who have not played resistance and in case there are spies amongst them they are more likely to slip. No need to tell people how to play if they are spies. This is the reason why I wanted to talk about this on day 2 originally since it's a lot of day 1 strategy for spy. Since this mission is going to go, none of this applies to this game anymore, and acts as a basis of discussion for the events that occurred on day 1 and the results of the mission. On the other days, I'm also going to be discussing what potential strategies the spies employed after the mission goes, and obviously not before. Thanks for pointing this out though. More of a town thing to do. | ||
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On January 03 2014 00:15 Alakaslam wrote: Night 1 Team: Koshi, Hopeless1der, raynpelikoneet Team 3 Current Leader: Koshi Current Vote Count: Corazon: Nay Hopeless1der: Yay Coagulation: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Koshi: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay VisceraEyes: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Yay Koshi, Hopeless1der, and Raynepelikoneet have been sent on a mission! If you have night actions to send in PM both of us please, this goes for the whole game, questions etc. Did Grack not vote? | ||
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On January 03 2014 07:38 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'm thinking it was Koshi all along. CR we are now in D2. Your thoughts on all of this? At work atm. Reading through Titanic I while code is compiling. Investigating the possibility of a Corazon/Hopeless scumteam. | ||
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On January 03 2014 09:27 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: THIS is the advice we've been waiting for? I feel more ripped off than when I ask for Coke in a restaurant and 2/3 of the glass is ice. That should be common sense. I felt I had to make that obvious statement after Grack saying "I cannot understand from a townie perspective someone being ok with both of those teams when he is on neither of them." Not sure if he's referring to someone yay voting a team they're not on, or yay voting 6 unique players, but just in case it's the former, it doesn't hurt to reiterate. I've seen town players downvote a team based off that illusion of safe play before, and although it's pretty much mandatory of mission 5, you don't wanna do it on mission 2. | ||
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On January 03 2014 09:54 Hopeless1der wrote: Grack is calling you scum because of the latter case. We're gonna need some more wisdom out of you. If I approved both the first two teams because each of them has a spy in them and I'm the third spy, then it confirms Koshi and Grack as town. If there was only one team in the first two that had a spy in it, then obviously outside spies would have a preference to which team is approved, and Grack should be questioning those who have displayed a preference. Not a hard thing to do when there are plenty of town displaying preference to mix yourself in with. Or it means that I'm a town who doesn't really care which team is sent. Not much help, but hey, if we figure out that one of the first two teams is all town, then it's a good bet that I'm town. | ||
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On January 03 2014 10:22 Grackaroni wrote: Wait am I proposing a mission of 3 people? I thought it was 3 4 4 5(2) 5 You are 4 people | ||
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On January 03 2014 18:31 raynpelikoneet wrote: Holy fucking shit. This just struck me: Can it be this easy? Hmm this is interesting. I have an essay full of reads right now, and one of my stronger ones is that Adam and Hopeless are spies together. We arrived to the same conclusion for different reasons. I'm not yet sold on Grack yet, but he's a possibility. | ||
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I'm going to start my reads with Adam simply because he was the first mission leader. Here was the results of the voting: Final Vote Count: Hopeless1der: Yay Adam4167: Nay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay Koshi: Yay VisceraEyes: Nay raynpelikoneet: Nay Chairman Ray: Yay Corazon: Nay Grackaroni: Nay Let's walk through what happened on phase 1 from a town Adam perspective, and then from a spy Adam perspective. The day starts off the and first thing that really happens is hopeless explaining why leaders should always pick themselves. Ends up being proven false, but overall not strongly alignment indicative. What comes to my mind at this point is the possibility of an Adam/Hopeless scumteam. This was the first post: On December 27 2013 09:46 Hopeless1der wrote: Hmm..i disagree with rayn about voting usually being anonymous. I guess my friends play with weird rules. I'm used to IRL voting where a choice is selected with a hidden tile and then revealed all at once, then votes are tallied and you know who voted for what and have that as information to analyze. Anyways, do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team? On December 27 2013 10:18 Hopeless1der wrote: I think the leader should ALWAYS pick themselves. Sitting yourself out of a team is like self-voting for a lynch imo. If you know you are of the resistance, you should absolutely be going in your mind. Unless the game has been trivialized because the spies derped and all 3 sabotage the first mission, I think the leader is always going to have a spot on the team. I would vote no on any team that didnt include the current leader for this reason, regardless of what town sentiment was at that time. The first thing I noticed was that this question was posed out of the blue. There was no previous context of it. So why would hopeless just open the game asking this kind of question? It's kinda weird isn't it? One thing we know is that hopeless is experienced in playing The Resistance. I am also experienced, and to me, it's so obvious that there are many cases where a leader should not put himself in. Does this mean that Hopeless should share the same opinion that I do? Maybe, maybe not. But let's analyze it further. Since Hopeless has experience playing The Resistance, and judging by his posts afterwards, he seems very sure with the idea that a leader should always send themselves in, to the point where he probably doesn't need to ask. I can see someone asking this kind of question if they feel it makes sense, but they have never played The Resistance before so they want other people's input. Let's put ourselves in Hopeless's shoes for a second. You played this game before, and you know for certain that leaders should put themselves in. Which opening statement makes sense: Alright let's get this game going. I'm town and I would like to go on the first mission because I want it to pass. Adam, you should put yourself in as well since you are the leader. Let's find the best third candidate to put on the first mission Do you think there is ever a scenario where the leader SHOULDNT send themselves on a team? I have trouble with the idea that someone who's experienced with this game, is totally sure that a leader should put himself in, would not open the game by finding town, hunting scum, offering himself in the mission, but instead asks a question that is trivial to them. I bet that if we put that line into Google Translate, and translate it from English to Spy, it would read something like: I want Adam on the first mission, but I don't want to directly suggest it. I will pose a question suggesting that it is ideal for the leader to be on the mission. Perhaps one of you can agree with me and be the one to say that Adam should be on the team. This leads me to believe the possibility of an Adam+Hopeless scum team. At this point, there is still not much to indicate alignment, but what I want to say is that what makes the most sense at this point would be those two as scum. Let's look further into the game and see if Adam+Hopeless continue to make sense. So what happens next? Adam puts himself, Hopeless, and Rayn on the first mission. A spy would usually avoid putting himself in with another spy, which is an argument against Adam and Hopeless being spies together, but because Adam rejected this team later on, this argument no longer applies to this scenario. I will elaborate on this later on. At this time, Hopeless is the first to yay vote the team. Although the yay vote in itself would indicate less likelihood of Adam and Hopeless being spies, the timing of the vote indicates otherwise. Since you only get a single vote, it is the best strategy-wise for town to save it until more information comes along. Once there have been a lot of dialogue and many people have voted, your vote becomes the most educated. If it was the case that everyone was saving their vote and somebody had to go first, then I would excuse Hopeless for it, but the reality is that he yay voted the team within 30 minutes of the announcement. The second vote came 4 hours after the announcement. It seems like Hopeless was damn sure that this mission is a go and no more information could change his mind. As town I don't think he would do that. As mafia however, I think he's excited that he's gonna go on a mission with another spy. When I signed up to this game, I was hoping that I would get to be a spy and the mission I would pick would have all the spies. Let's see how you guys deal with that. Hopeless is an experienced player. Multiple spies being on the same mission happen every other game, so Hopeless would know how to play it and take advantage of it. That would explain the lightning fast yay vote. The next thing of importance is how Adam downvoted his own team. At this time the votes were 5-4 in favor of pass, where Adam can choose to change his vote from the default vote. He made the deciding vote to reject the mission. Let's analyze the motives for this from a town perspective and then from a spy perspective. Firstly, if I was town in his position, I would have let the mission pass. I would love to lead the first mission. Pass or fail, it makes the game easy. If I am on the mission, then all I gotta do is choose 2 out of the remaining 5 town. Much better chance than 3/6. Plus, some of the leaders after me might be spies. Don't want the mission to pass on one of their turns. From my perspective, it is the greatest chance that the first mission will succeed. Even if it fails, that's still okay, because I have the easy job of figuring out one mafia out of two people while everyone else has to figure it out of three people. It makes the investigation easy, and once the game is solved from my perspective, all I gotta do is convince all the other town that I'm right. The best confidence that your team is the right team on the very first mission is that not everyone agrees with it. The votes being 5-4, it is a fairly good indication. This is why I would have let the first mission pass if I was Adam. Even though I would let the first mission pass, it doesn't mean Adam would. Overall not very alignment indicative, but makes some sense. Secondly, if I was spy in his position, I would also have let the mission pass. It's so important to have a spy on the first mission, regardless if I sabotage the mission. The reason is because if the first mission succeeds, the most common play is to choose the same three people and add one more. At this point there is no drawback to spy to let the mission go. I have trouble believing that if Adam was a lone spy, he would make the deciding vote to reject the mission. He could be being crafty, but that would be a long shot. Lastly, if I was spy in his position, and there was another spy on the team. I don't know exactly the reason behind choosing another spy in the first place. Perhaps he was in a mafia mindset and wanted to mix in a spy and a town. Perhaps this was from inexperience. Or maybe he was being pressured too hard to give a team, and the only two vocal people at the time were Hopeless and Rayn. So if I was in his position, after realizing that having two spies on one team puts me in an uncomfortable situation, I would reject it and hope the next team has a spy in it. This makes the most sense. Let's keep looking further into the game. Here are the voting results for VE's team and Koshi's team: Current Vote Count: Koshi: Nay Hopeless1der: Nay Corazon: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Adam4167: Nay VisceraEyes: Yay Grackaroni: Nay raynpelikoneet: Not voting Current Vote Count: Corazon: Nay Hopeless1der: Yay Coagulation: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Koshi: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay VisceraEyes: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Yay On VE's team, there were five rejects. Among them were both Adam and Hopeless. Perhaps VE chose a good team. On Koshi's team, both Adam and Hopeless passed it, and the mission failed. Voting patterns are completely in line with Adam and Hopeless being spies. Overall at this point, I'm still not totally confident in Adam and Hopeless being spies, but unless we get some new development, I would rather not have either of them on the mission. I'm gonna be looking for a possible third spy that makes sense to be on a team with them. | ||
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On January 04 2014 01:35 Hopeless1der wrote: CR you around? I'm here now, but activity will be sparse while I'm at work. I looked through your more recent filters, and also looked through Koshi's and Rayn's. I think you are still the most likely spy out of the three, but that's just a likelihood and I'm not completely sold on it yet. I'm gonna be looking more into it tonight. If you are town, it is just as much my job as it is yours to prove it, since my win condition depends on it as well. | ||
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On January 04 2014 05:09 Hopeless1der wrote: All of this. Every single word, in this thread, NOW. Spoiler it all at your discretion. What do you hope to find in my inconclusive reads? | ||
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On January 04 2014 05:19 Hopeless1der wrote: Are you going to do it or not? I know what's in my reads so far. I'm not comfortable sharing most of it right now simply because it's not done and it will help spies more than town. A lot of it deals with spy strategy and things that I'm looking for that may not have fully occurred yet. Every single town here has their impressions and their hints to go off of. They post it when they make a tangible read and don't go spewing it the second it enters their mind. The only difference is that I like writing paragraphs to help my train of thought. I expect other town to post when they feel is most optimal and I am doing the same. | ||
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On January 04 2014 06:09 Hopeless1der wrote: Can someone bully CR into posting his "essays" for me? He had no problem spewing bs advice for the spyteam earlier. Why so concerned about this? If his essays are so awesome why is that even a problem for town? We ought to be getting primo levels of wisdom out of him and instead he's clamped himself up in the name of "not help in the scum team". I think he is actively harming town by NOT posting his notes if they exist and I think he is scum if they don't. The way his case is written there ought to be some pretty good shit in there besides the case on me, but CR doesn't want anyone to have it. Why? Earlier you said that you were gonna pick apart my case. Now you're saying that there isn't any good shit in my case on you. We still haven't heard anything on why you disagree with my case, but you are very eager to hear my reads on other people, even though they aren't even complete. Why is this? | ||
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On January 04 2014 06:27 Hopeless1der wrote: Because your other reads dont exist and you are scum stalling and hoping this all goes away FTFY You said twice that you don't agree with my case against you, yet you still haven't posted anything yet. You are doing the exact thing that you are criticizing me for. From what I see, you are the one who's trying to stall. There's evidence pointing to you being scum, yet you choose to divert the attention to anything you can grasp. I already told you that I don't want to post most of it yet because I'm not even finished writing it yet. I gave my case on you and Adam, so your defense is to try to discredit me instead of giving a single piece of evidence that you are town. It doesn't get any more scummier than this. | ||
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Chairman Ray posted: "Hey guys, I have some reads. Most of it is not done, but here's what I have finished so far. Please take a look." Which of the following statements would I say if I am town, and which would I say if I was spy: 1. Alright cool, let's discuss what your reads right now. I will share what I think as well and hopefully that can help you finish the rest of your reads 2. I'm in no rush to discuss your reads, but if you don't post the rest of your reads that are incomplete right now, you are spy! | ||
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On January 04 2014 07:39 Hopeless1der wrote: 1. suggests I think you are town 2. suggests I think you are scum Those options do not depend on MY alignment, they depend on my perception of YOUR alignment. and u scum bro. That's actually a fair point. If you are town and you have confirmed me as spy, then there would be no point in communication between us as you don't need to gain my trust and I don't need to gain yours. Right now, I am choosing to discuss with you about your reads against me and also give you some more reads I have on you because I only feel a likelihood that you are spy and I would like to explore the idea further. But since you seem quite certain that I am spy, would you care to walk through your proof? I don't think I have heard this part yet. This is not for me of course. This is for the other town so they know not to send me on the next mission. | ||
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On January 04 2014 08:09 Hopeless1der wrote: my strongest proof is the non-existence of your other reads. The rest is blatant OMGUS, I know I'm town etc etc And how does that make me spy? | ||
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The proper play for town, both for town inside the mission and outside the mission, was to withhold your vote. The reason is because if this mission has only town players, then spies have to reject it or else the game ends. If this mission has all town, then all we do is send the same team or the next two mission and then we win it 3-1. There is very little room for spies to be meta, but I will still explain the spy meta for our consideration. For town players who are outside the mission, if there are two passes from outside the mission, then the mission must be rejected. If there are all town players in the mission, then there should be three spies outside the mission who should reject it. Given that there are four players outside the mission other than yourself, once there are two yays, then it is no longer possible to have three nays. For town players who are inside the mission, if there are three passes from outside the mission, then the mission must be rejected. The reasoning follows very similarly to above, but one extra person since you cannot exclude yourself. So from my perspective, I had to withhold my vote until there are two yays from people outside the mission. Once that occurs, then I have to reject it. I had to depend on the town people inside the mission to withhold their vote as well. Obviously I couldn't straight out say it or else spies could just easily counter it. I knew rayn would make the proper play and withhold his vote, and I slipped a hint to Grack by saying that a leader should withhold his vote. They both rejected the mission, but one of the town outside the mission yayed it, so unfortunately this mission has to go. Before I go into what we should do for the next mission, I'll just quickly go over the spy meta that can occur. If a spy sees that the mission has all town, then they could either reject it and hope that two town reject it as well, or they can employ a meta play and pass it. There are four town on the mission, three spies outside the mission, and two town outside the mission. The spies outside the mission must vote yay until there are two yay votes from outside the mission. So two of them can yay it, or they can wait for a town to yay and then only put one yay in. This will force the town from outside the mission to reject it if they catch on. I feel that there is a very low chance that spies decided to do this, because there are some non-experienced Resistance players, and depending on town to catch on and make the proper play to reject is unreliable. Anyways, this is what we must do for the next mission. The next mission will fail, so there has to be a spy among Grack, VE, Cora, Rayn. Let's just say one for now, because I don't want to believe that two town from outside the mission yayed it. But the case where there are two will still be considered. Since Sentinel was the 5th yay, he is absolutely confirmed as spy. As I explained above, spies can be meta for the first few votes, but they cannot be meta for the 5th yay since that's where it ends. When there are two yays from inside the mission and two yays from outside, then a town outside the mission absolutely cannot yay it. This confirms Sentinel as spy. Coag and Hopeless are the two others from outside the mission that yayed it. If there is a spy in the mission, one of them has to be a spy because they yayed it. If there is not a spy in the mission, and the spies are trying to be meta, this also means that one of them has to be a spy. Yes, it is possible that they are both town and decided to throw the game, so if we lose, they're to blame. At this point, we have to assume that one of them is a spy. There's also another exception where Sentinel is town and he just messed up, but that still just means that two out of Coag, Hopeless, and Sentinel are spies. I think I'm gonna be going this route because it's the safest and assumes the least, and also I think all three of them are quite scummy. Koshi did something very important during the vote. Once the vote began, he said twice that he was gonna yay the mission, then he failed it. Let's just say he was a spy for a second. If there was a spy on the mission, by saying that he's gonna yay the mission, it bring skepticism to towns and makes them want to reject it more. If there was no a spy on the mission, then we'll know soon enough. Now if Koshi was town, then he could be saying that he was gonna yay this mission because spies would see that and be baited into giving a yay vote in hopes that Koshi the town would yay it with them. It also keeps other town on their toes since a player from outside the mission is supporting it. So basically, what Koshi did was strictly a good town play and would not be done by spy. So from here on, I would like to 100% confirm Koshi as town for that reason, and for the reason that I refuse to believe that there are two town among Coag, Hopeless, and Sentinel. Having all of them play scummy, and two of them messing up and yay voting is too far-fetched, and even if town loses because of this, it's more their fault than mine. We also have to confirm that I am town as well because I was the only other person from outside the mission to reject it. If this mission fails, there is no more room for information gathering, and we have to send all town for the mission, so I absolutely have to go on the mission. Out of the people in the mission, I feel most comfortable with rayn since he's playing most consistently good town plays, so I want him on the next mission as well. So my recommendations for the next mission: -Chairman Ray -Koshi -Rayn -??? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 06 2014 08:50 Corazon wrote: I'm not entirely sure, but two things are confusing to me: Why did Grack make his team and then vote No on it? The timing of his vote looks really suspicious because it was after his vote would not matter. Perhaps he could be try to distance himself from a mission he knew was going to fail? Why did Sentinel immediately blame Grack for the sabotage? It looks especially weird because he voted yes to the team. I don't understand. Also, CR's post really makes me feel like he knew the mission was going to end in failure. In my opinion, I need to pick two out of these three to join hopeless as my proposed scum team. Of course I knew the mission was going to end in failure. I explained why in my post. In a 5-4 pass vote where three yay votes are from outside the mission, the mission is guaranteed to fail. Do you understand this logic? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 06 2014 09:47 Corazon wrote: Why didn't you spend your time trying to convince people it was bad instead of writing some long and hard to follow post? You're not being proactive at all this game. Did you read my post? The hard evidence that pointed to the team being bad occurred when Hopeless voted yay. That was when the team was guaranteed to fail. Not before then. Sentinel voted yay 7 minutes after Hopeless voted yay, which was the 5th vote making the mission pass. If you are suggesting that I should have spent my time convincing people that the team was bad, that's what I was planning to do, but I only had a 7 minute window to do it, and unfortunately I was away during those 7 minutes. | ||
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Will be posting my reads/team when it is my turn to propose the mission. In the meantime I am curious to see how the next proposed team plays out. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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If we pass this on my turn, we then pass the 4th mission on rayn's turn. Out of the 5 following players, Koshi is the confirmed town, so we have one chance to pass the 5th mission on his turn. If we reject this on my turn, we then pass this mission on rayn's turn. Koshi will take the 4th mission, and then I have to take the last mission. I think either way is fine. Anyways, onto the team. Right now, Koshi and I are confirmed town due to last mission's behavior as explained in my previous post. The only way that either of us is a spy is if two or more town decided to throw the game. If we're willing to go that far for reads, then there's a lot of other highly unlikely reads we can also make, and at that point we can't draw any conclusion at all. I have to put Koshi in the mission, and if Koshi turns out to be spy, the fault lies in those who threw the game for town. Koshi and I are in. Next I would like to put Rayn in. For the entirety of the game, Rayn has not made a single action that is consistent with a spy agenda. Since the spies are 2 missions up, even if Rayn was a spy, there can't be any more information gained from missions and voting that can point him to being a spy. The only thing that can happen is that Rayn yay votes a guaranteed scumteam prior to there being 4 yay votes already on the field. I don't even mind saying it because there's no way he could make that mistake as spy. So due to Rayn not able to be proven as spy at this point, we have to put him in the mission assuming he is town. Now we have to choose the last person on the mission. I can divide the remaining players into two groups - those that went on the last mission, and those who did not and yayed it. Went on mission: Grack, Corazon, VE Yayed the mission: Coag, Hopeless, Sentinel I believe that there is one spy in the first group and two in the second. This is due to there being three yay votes outside the mission. A town could potentially give the first yay vote, but it's very bad to give the second yay vote, and completely throwing the game to give the third yay vote. On second thought, I'm just going to base the rest of the game assuming that there being 2 spies in the second group is confirmed. If I am wrong, it's their fault for confirming themselves as spy. Firstly let's look at the second group. Hopeless has been confirmed as spy on multiple occasions. Sentinel has been confirmed as spy on the occasion where he gave the final yay vote on the failing mission when there were two yay votes from outside the mission. He claimed it was a mistake, so overall, I'm thinking the following spy probabilities: Coagulation - low Hopeless - guaranteed Sentinel - high The question now is do we pick someone from the first group to send and go with a 66.6% chance of hitting a town, or do we go with Coag? We have to pick two people on mission 5 anyways, so the permutations include: -Coag mission 3, someone from group 1 mission 5 -Someone from group 1 mission 3, Coag mission 5 -Someone from group 1 mission 3, another from group 1 mission 5 Either way, we have to include someone from group 1, so let's look at who the best choice is. What we know so far is Hopeless is on the spy team with one of them, and most likely Sentinel, possible Coag. So let's look at the history between every permutation. Grack - Hopeless Grack downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Would make sense if Grack was town or if the spy team was Grack/Hopeless/Coag. Hopeless yayed the second mission where Grack was in, making it 4-1. The mission included Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet. If Grack wasn't the spy in the mission, one of the others has to be it. Grack - Sentinel Grack nay voted the second mission where the team was VE, Sentinel, Corazon, making the vote 4-4. Grack less likely to be spy with Sentinel. Grack - Coag Grack downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it. After Grack downvoted it, the votes were 5-4 in favor of passing, but then Adam changed his vote. Makes sense if Grack is town or if the spy team was Grack/Coag/Hopeless Corazon - Hopeless Corazon downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town if it Hopeless/Corazon/Coag is the spy team. Corazon downvoted the second mission where it was Koshi/Hopeless/Rayn. Corazon was bussing Hopeless at this point so he has to anyways. Corazon - Sentinel In VE's team that was proposed with VE/Corazon/Sentinel, both of them yayed it. Corazon - Coag Corazon downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 5-3. Makes sense if Corazon is town, or if Coag/Corazon/Hopeless is the spy team. VE - Hopeless VE downvoted the first mission where Hopeless was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team. Hopeless downvoted the team that VE proposed on mission two. VE - Sentinel VE put sentinel in the second mission when VE was leader. Both VE and Sentinel approved it. Less likely for these two to be spy together, but not by much. VE- Coag VE downvoted the first mission where Adam was in it, making the vote 3-2. Makes sense if VE is town, or if VE/Hopeless/Coag is the spy team. Adam downvoted the second mission when VE proposed VE/Sentinel/Cora, making the vote 3-3. Adam less likely to be spy with Coag. In all cases, there is possibility for spies being meta or bussing each other, which will be considered. Will continue this tomorrow with permutation of 3 spies instead of just 2, and also look more into dialogue between people. Team so far Chairman Ray, Raynpelikoneet, Koshi | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On January 09 2014 17:02 Koshi wrote: CR so good. So good. I don't understand this part. The first part of that isn't a strong indication of much. If there were 5 yay votes already, if Corazon was expecting the vote to pass, he could put anything down. The second part, I was referring to the mission: Team: Koshi, Hopeless1der, raynpelikoneet Team 3 Current Leader: Koshi Current Vote Count: Corazon: Nay Hopeless1der: Yay Coagulation: Yay Chairman Ray: Yay Koshi: Yay [UoN]Sentinel: Yay VisceraEyes: Yay Raynpelikoneet: Yay When looking at this vote and looking at how Corazon has been speaking to Hopeless for that portion of the game, it would seem that they are not spies together, but I've gone through Corazon's previous games as scum, and he is definitely capable of bussing teammates hard. So even though Corazon instantly nay voted a team that Hopeless was on, it doesn't make it less likely that they are spy together. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Proposed Team: Grackaroni, Corazon, VisceraEyes, raynpelikoneet Team 1 Current Leader: Grackaroni Final Vote Count: VisceraEyes: Yay Corazon: Yay Koshi: Nay Coagulation: Yay Hopeless1der: Yay [UoN] Sentinel: Yay raynpelikoneet: Nay Grackaroni: Nay Chairman Ray: Nay | ||
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On January 06 2014 03:56 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Oh... was I #5? I'm unsure of what's going on with Grack. I thought he was town for a while... maybe not... Adam/Coag-Hopeless-Grack might be the scumteam after all based on the voting. On January 06 2014 08:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I really fucked this one up. 2 scummers from Coag/Hopeless/CR 1 scummer from the team (Grack?) I'm thinking rayn/koshi/cora/VE After that he never touched on the subject again, so not a lot of effort was spent defending himself even though we keep bringing up that he's confirmed spy. If I was in his position as town, I would definitely be spending a lot of effort trying to reprove that I am town. I guess that's good enough for me. With Hopeless+Sentinel as confirmed spy, Coag should be going on the next mission then. Then it's between Grack, VE, and Cora for the last slot. 66.6% victory if we RNG it. | ||
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On January 10 2014 06:58 VisceraEyes wrote: Ray we need a team bruh. Do you suggest we take someone from Grack/VE/Cora, or take Coag? | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On January 10 2014 10:51 Coagulation wrote: did u just ask ve if he wants to take ve? Yes, do you think we should take Coag instead? | ||
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Chairman Ray
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If you can find some evidence indicating that either Koshi or Rayn is the spy, then I'm willing to consider it, but at this point I did whatever I could do, and if Koshi or Rayn does turn out to be the spy, I'm okay with the game ending. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Cool | ||
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On January 11 2014 10:54 Koshi wrote: Also big shout out to CR. I love his play. I just do. Lovely style. Low amounts of post but really a lot of effort in them. I would never be able to do that. Pretty unique player. Thanks! I'll try to keep it up. However I still have many areas to improve upon though, for example, I wasn't open minded enough to consider the scenario where both Hopeless and Sentinel were town. There were definitely moments in their filter where they did seem town and I chose to ignore it. | ||
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