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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 62

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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probuLing
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
United States75 Posts
January 16 2014 07:08 GMT
#1221
I wish there was a way to vote to not lynch, since that'd give us another day. Although knowing mafia it'd probably be a pretty well certain townie who dies tonight if that happened.
Tracking NA/EU/KR GM bonus pools: http://gm.probuling.com
sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
January 16 2014 11:24 GMT
#1222
On January 16 2014 00:30 suki wrote:
Linking Day_Walker and sidesprang together:

Sidesprang posted:
Show nested quote +
Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia. With 9 votes on a player, why would you try to change the vote in any way if you were mafia, unless the person with the 9 votes were your mafia buddy.

Atleast that is what pops to my head first when trying to see it from a mafia perspective.

This can be seen as a soft defense of Day_Walker, knowing that sidesprang knows theDragoon is not mafia.

Sidesprang posted:
Show nested quote +
Day_Walker

When I read his filter I see a possibility for him being scum, however I think its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum

I feel he gave him a weak townread in the start with his list. And when BigDad says he find Day_Walker and theDragon both became overly defensive about it.

And also as chinstrap pointed out making a scumcase for the lurkers and a towncase for theDragoon, is something that very well can be done as scum regardless of theDragoon's allignment. And the more I think about it, I think it's more likely to be done if he is scum.

If he makes a case for theDragoon is town then if he flips town he gets cred. If he flips scum then he tried to save his buddy.

I do however feel this is very circumstantial and I would not feel comfortable lynching him, but this is what I read when I tried to view him as scum.


Sidesprang flips back and forth on whether he thinks Day_Walker is scum, or not. His final verdict is he would not be comfortable lynching Day_Walker. Another defense.

Aside from these two early non-scum reads on Day_Walker, sidesprang has not commented on Day_Walker. I think this supports the Day_Walker/sidesprang scum team theory, because Day_Walker has been in the spotlight for the last few days and sidesprang hasn't commented on him once.


In Day_Walker's first post, he lists sidesprang as town (along with everyone else). Shortly after sidesprang bandwagoned onto theDragoon, Day_Walker posts his anti-lurker post where he votes dnyarri for being a scummy lurker. Sidesprang is in that list as well. Balla had already commented that sidesprang's vote looked like a bus, so it's a good move to include sidesprang in the list of lynch targets. Day_Walker doesn't actually say that sidesprang looks scummy though.

In one of Day_Walker's more recent posts he proposes dnyarri+Asuna+Derrida scum team. He later backs down but doesn't propose a new team. There's a total absence of comment on sidesprang from Day_Walker.

In addition, Day_Walker and sidesprang avoided voting on the same people in all three lynches so far. There's ample reason for Mafia to not vote together, especially when town is so confused.


I feel that Day_Walker and sidesprang can be explained by their weak reads and lack of posts against each other, as well as their voting patterns.


I'm sorry, but nothing of this points to me being scum, and every link you are finding is more confirmation bias than anything. On page 58 you said I was scum with BigDad because I never mentioned him. Now I'm scum with Day_walker because I hardly mentioned him.

TBH its just seems to me that you are reading filters, and dont look at when or why the posts are being made. And when you find something that supports your theory you think you have found something. That is a very backwards way of going about finding scum.

If I was scum with Day_Walker I really dont understand why i would bother defending him when it was like 8 votes vs 2. Seems like a dumb idea to link us togheter, especially when my defence for him is that bad.

Regarding the lurker list of Day_Walker that is not allignment indicative due to the fact I was lurking (or I was not lurking but I was not there for like 24h). If we are scum togheter or not he has to mention me because I was lurking.

Regarding dnyarri + asuna + derrida scum team, why would he mention me there. If he believes in that theory he found all scummers.

The voting part = confirmation bias again.



Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 16 2014 14:15 GMT
#1223
sidesprang if you're really town then why don't you start forming cases and put your vote somewhere because defending yourself isn't helping.

No matter what case I bring up, scum can always explain away the points (minus obvious scum slips, and I don't really see anything like that). So prove your towniness by making a case, and if there's flaws in it then you'll slip as scum anyways.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 16 2014 14:21 GMT
#1224
To Asuna: You should be making your own reads. The more different perspectives we have the better chance we have of finding something incriminating. Especially in your position as a confirmed blue, you're pretty much the only person whose intentions I can 100% trust.

My reads are all plainly laid out in my night post.. Nothing's happened at all since then so there's nothing for me to add... -_-

probuLing
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
United States75 Posts
January 16 2014 16:18 GMT
#1225
DW seems to have just gone away to nowhere, which is concerning. He did push for Derrida slightly before Derrida died as scum, even pointing to me as being paired with Derrida. Not sure if that's just to get town cred or not...

dnyarri doesn't seem to like BigDad very much. Seems quite fine with sidesprang though UNLESS he is paired with BigDad or DW, but not so much alone. Doesn't really like DW either.

BigDad - also doesn't seem to like DW, or dnyarri for that matter.

sidesprang - doesn't like dnyarri. Ambivalent towards DW.

And I think you are town suki, so the most compatible pairings seem to be DW + sidepsrang or sidesprang + BigDad. But the town is really quiet so.... sidesprang is the common factor in those pairings so here's to hoping.

##Vote: sidesprang
Tracking NA/EU/KR GM bonus pools: http://gm.probuling.com
Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 16 2014 16:59 GMT
#1226
One thing that started to worry me is that Derrida never seemed to like sidesprang. And as Asuna noted, my biggest reason to go after sidesprang is that sidesprang seems to be compatible with my top scum reads and that sidesprang seemed somewhat scummy, but not scummiest. But how compatible sidesprang is with Derrida? I have to admit that I didn't really think about it earlier.

It seemed that Derrida was eager to go after sidesprang. I guess Derrida didn't guess that they would die so why would Derrida attack sidesprang? Later on it would have been hard to change mind.

I'm now more happy to lynch Day_Walker than sidesprang.
probuLing
Profile Blog Joined January 2014
United States75 Posts
January 16 2014 17:18 GMT
#1227
On January 17 2014 01:59 dnyarri wrote:
One thing that started to worry me is that Derrida never seemed to like sidesprang. And as Asuna noted, my biggest reason to go after sidesprang is that sidesprang seems to be compatible with my top scum reads and that sidesprang seemed somewhat scummy, but not scummiest. But how compatible sidesprang is with Derrida? I have to admit that I didn't really think about it earlier.

It seemed that Derrida was eager to go after sidesprang. I guess Derrida didn't guess that they would die so why would Derrida attack sidesprang? Later on it would have been hard to change mind.

I'm now more happy to lynch Day_Walker than sidesprang.

hmm true derrida didn't like sidesprang at all
Tracking NA/EU/KR GM bonus pools: http://gm.probuling.com
Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 16 2014 17:46 GMT
#1228
Day_Walker is scummy, but who would be Day_Walker's remaining scum-buddy? It seems that not sidesprang because of Derrida's stance on sidesprang. While Day_Walker is very scummy, I can't really think who would be Day_Walker's remaining scum buddy.

I'm leaning more towards sidesprang + BIgDad + Derrida theory. It seems to have least contradictions. However, there doesn't seem to be facts either that would really support this theory. It's frustrating because it makes it really hard to choose my vote and I really should be studying mathematics now.

Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 16 2014 18:15 GMT
#1229
Damn what were I thinking. sidesprang + BigDad + Derrida theory doesn't work any better for the same reason why sidesprang + Day_Walker + Derrida.
sidesprang
Profile Joined January 2009
Norway1033 Posts
January 16 2014 18:17 GMT
#1230
Ok, when reading dnyarris posts here I really doubt he would defend me like that as he did in his second last post as mafia if he was mafia. As he could have just gone with the popular oppinion. Tho he do semi retract it in his newest post, I think he is genuinly trying to figure out the game.

Dnyarri from my PoV = confirmed town.

Asuna, the scenarios that makes her scum / SK is just far to unlikely at this point. Asuna = confirmed town.


That leaves me with 3 unconfirmed town, and I've been looking plenty at them all. But I really can't seem to put together a case for scum on any. However Suki have played way way more protown, so I'm fairly certain that scum should be Day_Walker and BigDad. If not the scummers have played really well.

##Vote Day_Walker


I know this wont be so easy for you to see, as I know I'm town and you don't. But it's all I got.
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 16 2014 18:40 GMT
#1231
Day 4 vote count:

sidesprang (1): Asuna
Day_Walker (3): BigDad, suki, sidesprang

Not voting (2): dnyarri, Day_Walker

Currently, Day_Walker is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Thursday, Jan 16 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!

If there are errors, please let us know.
Deleted User 323385
Profile Joined December 2013
41 Posts
January 16 2014 18:57 GMT
#1232
If Day_Walker really has been afk all this time, it's possible too that mafia sacrifices Day_Walker for more credibility. This is just theory again but I really have problems finding hard data. I'm saying this because I've spent hours looking through filters and I can't find working combination that could be backed with facts alone.

From all players, Day_Walker seems scummiest to me. Time is running out and the best we seem to have is individual scum reads.

##Vote Day_Walker
Day_Walker
Profile Joined December 2013
104 Posts
January 16 2014 19:53 GMT
#1233
Sorry I've been a bad townie. Real life is a thing :/

Anyway, I just want to point out that
1) right now you are set to lynch the only person who did not vote for the townie lynch yesterday.
2) assuming Asuna town, right now from town POV there is one scum vote on me, and from my POV there are two, Bussing me certainly would sense, so sadly this is not a very strong point.

Right now my scum reads are BigDad, sidesprang, and dnyarri in that order.

My vote stays where it has been:

##Vote: BigDad
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 16 2014 20:07 GMT
#1234
Day 4 vote count:

sidesprang (1): Asuna
Day_Walker (4): BigDad, suki, sidesprang, dnyarri
BigDad (1): Day_Walker

Currently, Day_Walker is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Thursday, Jan 16 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!

If there are errors, please let us know.
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 16 2014 22:03 GMT
#1235
[image loading]


Endgame





Petrograd was quickly becoming a hostile place to live in. People were becoming very restless over the unexplained deaths and starting to doubt the cause. The revolution was not going well after chinstrap's death, with no one to take the role of a strong leader.

Once again there was a gathering to try to solve the issue of White spies, but this time there was no enthusiasm. No one trusted each other anymore, and with all the strong leaders gone there was little discussion. When it was suggested that Day_Walker might be a spy people just quickly agreed and the execution proceeded with little fuss.

As the corpse of Day_Walker was thrown into a shallow grave, suki pulled a flare gun from under his coat and fired a white flare up to the evening sky, and yelled:

'Comrades, your time is up. Your revolution has failed. Those directly involved in subversive activities are to surrender themselves to real authorities and prepare for appropriate punishment. Everyone else, go home and stay indoors until law and order has been fully restored.'

As he said this, White soldiers entered the city and started taking over the functions that had been run by Red revolutionaries.

In the coming months, there would be strict investigations and harsh punishments for those suspected of involvement, and many would die in Siberian gulags for their traitorous acts. History books would remember the revolution as "Petrograd Insurrection", and paint the White spies as selfless heroes who risked their lives for the country.



Day_Walker the Bolshevik Revolutionary (Vanilla Townie) has been lynched!

sidesprang the Bolshevik Revolutionary (Vanilla Townie) is endgamed!
dnyarri the Bolshevik Revolutionary (Vanilla Townie) is endgamed!

Asuna the Cheka Recruit (Town 1-Shot Cop) is endgamed!

suki the White Saboteur (Mafia Roleblocker) is victorious!
BigDad the White Conspirator (Mafia Goon) is victorious!
Derrida the White Conspirator (Mafia Goon) is victorious from beyond the grave!




Game over!
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 16 2014 22:04 GMT
#1236
Good game everyone! =]
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 16 2014 22:05 GMT
#1237
muahahaha.

Also, can we get the link to the obs QT? I'm dying to read it.
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
January 16 2014 22:06 GMT
#1238
Also big thanks to LoneMeow for hosting the game
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 16 2014 22:07 GMT
#1239
Obs QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/qFBDtfXSQ4Yj
Scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/AFqXVnehSSZcm
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 16 2014 22:10 GMT
#1240
Muahahaha. GG!
|=| Bonkers |=|
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