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TL Mafia LXIII: Time to Die - Page 202

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
November 20 2013 01:04 GMT
#4021
can't say I'm surprised
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
November 20 2013 01:04 GMT
#4022
ARGH
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 20 2013 01:04 GMT
#4023
I called it.

So who do we want to lynch tmr?
HOLYFLARE.
Or HOPELESS.
No gg, No skill.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
November 20 2013 01:04 GMT
#4024
man how amazing would it have been if VE would have lynched BH Day1. Anyways, go read the cases on Pandain:
Rayn's case:
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 20 2013 06:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 20 2013 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Might aswell put this here:

Pandain:

I don't like this post at all:
On November 16 2013 11:11 Pandain wrote:
Yes I'm a mason. I don't think it's unlikely for there to be two, or even three masons however.

I think Hopeless is scum and Storr is scum for continually playing the newbie card so much it hurts.

On November 16 2013 07:31 Hopeless1der wrote:
more excuses for my activity incoming. Rogers fixed my internet. Now I'm going out to start my weekend. gg.


I read up on HolyFlare. I can see why rayn is pissing himself with rage. I can also see why HF would say "town read". Rayn looks better imo, but I dont see anything malicious about HF.

I wonder why Matt ignored his questions about me. Maybe he only takes request from VE.

Still dont know who to call scum


Bolded useless and scummy because it's a statement that a townie probably doesn't need to make becasue he simply wouldn't have an opinion, why a scum would post that because he's afraid of getting called out.

On November 15 2013 08:34 Hopeless1der wrote:
you lost me there storr...come again?

useless
On November 15 2013 08:18 Hopeless1der wrote:
That's not much of a running platform yam.

useless
On November 15 2013 02:37 Hopeless1der wrote:
yam's got my vote trololjk


useless

he's usually not useless

To top it off he made an excuse for not being active later on. While that's not proof in itself it doesn't help him.



Earlier on he "called Mocsta out" for his bad case on Storr. But he uses same (invalid) evidence in calling Storr scum (the newbie-card, which Storr never actually used). Also his stance on Hopeless is shit and what he says does not make Hopeless scum.

On November 16 2013 16:28 Pandain wrote:
Going to vote for Yamato because I don't have faith in VE if he thinks Skanjabs is scum. Also he might lynch me so there's that.

I think Yamato is going to end up lynching my scum reads and agree with me, we tend to agree on the same things actually.


Does not want to vote for VE for mayor because "he might end up lynching non-scum". But earlier on he said VE is better analyst than yamato, and said mayor should be selected by not looking only D1 lynch and who is better analyst overall. Contradicting himself.

On November 17 2013 02:31 Pandain wrote:
Yamato if you're mayor I think you should lynch hopeless or BH. I think Storr is good becasue he is playing pretty weird and he is playing the newb card so much when he really shouldn't and it's becoming really disconcerting especially since he also ran for mayor.


Now Storr is town because he is playing the noob card so much. But he was just scum for it?

On November 17 2013 02:40 Pandain wrote:
On November 17 2013 02:32 yamato77 wrote:
On November 17 2013 02:31 Pandain wrote:
Yamato if you're mayor I think you should lynch hopeless or BH. I think Storr is good becasue he is playing pretty weird and he is playing the newb card so much when he really shouldn't and it's becoming really disconcerting especially since he also ran for mayor.

Why hopeless?

I mean, he's always useless.


I don't think he's just being useless he's being scummy while being useless. No reads at all, apologizing


Another bad justification for scumread on Hopeless.

Then there is this BH claim thing. I kinda get Pandain from town pov from that whole mess. What i don't get is that he attacks me "for believing BH's claim" which i definitely did not do, then he wastes a fuckton of posts in arguing about the claim, useless. Also does not attack Grack who actually DID say he believed BH's claim lol.

"You can never read me as scum Rayn, you have never been close to lynching me." -> This is completely incorrect, in Thug life i told Koshi to shoot Pandain and he did (we were too busy lynching other scum), in Hogwarts i figured Pandain was scum on N1, had no time to lynch him, but saying i can't read him is wrong. This is a kind of defense Pandain uses as scum, saying things like "I have literally been town the whole game" or "You can't possibly think i am scum". Yes that's what he actually says as scum when someone accuses him.

"I think Vayne is scum he's playing like ##." Vayne is playing nothing like in ##.

Interestingly enough Pandain trust supersoft as 100% town as he has masoned him, but supersoft calls Pandain definitely scum in one of his last posts before D1 end.

Pandain's read on me is terrible. He never explains why he thinks i am scum. Last game where i was actually scum Pandain made a big case on me so i would think he feel comfortable in reading me if he is town (while the case was in fact bullshit). Instead of making a case he gives no reasoning but keeps on saying "i could support rayn lynch the most".

Pandain's case on BH regarding BH's claim is terrible. Honestly, it's so really bad. Then suddenly, when BH "un-claims" he staright out believes BH to be town for that.. Suddenly he has a scumread on Oats, he has never mentioned Oats before in this game. Read on Austin is "austin's been fine, he's been pushing people and giving opinions", unfortunately that does not mean anything at all - and austin has NOT been pushing people.

He says this about BH: "Based on his fakeclaim alone he's actually town. There are better places to argue now"
So in case he knows BH is fakeclaiming he can say anything he wants about BH (which he did, like 3 pages of his filter) - and when BH unclaims he can just flush it all away with this. Nothing matters any more. Good plan if they are scum or if Pandain believed BH was fakeclaiming in the first place (he called BH's claim fake in the first place so this actually is true in any case lol). After this he defends BH's original claim (why would scum claim 6h before the deadline) - but earlier on he attacked BH for same reasons?

On November 19 2013 05:40 Pandain wrote:
Rayn SS was basically mayor since VE was afk, and he wanted to lynch Mocsta. That's pretty evident enough.

He also has done analysis, his mason with me was very good and he gave thoughts on lots of people. Stop harassing him


This post is totally wrong, supersoft was not "basically mayor already", supersoft did not "want to lynch Mocsta", supersoft brings Mocsta up AT THE FIRST TIME IN HIS FILTER 3 minutes before the deadline!!!! Supersoft has not done ANY analysis at all, his filter is shit. This post is totally misleading analysis of supersoft.

Then there is this "this makes Onegu scum but he is town" analysis.


TLDR; Pandain's reasoning for his reads makes no sense at all. His play is all over the place and there is no direction. There is no logical train of thought and he seems to be trying to achieve nothing besides just saying stuff for sake of saying stuff. This all have i said before lol. ^^ And like i said before, he is scum.

* Post numbers before comments are the post numbers in thread.





My Case:
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 20 2013 04:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
##Unvote: Blazinghand
##Vote Pandain

I'll gladly switch back/support either for the double lynch tomorrow. However, I'm much more convinced on Pandain than BH atm. I could believe BH is an assassin. I can't believe Pandain is anything but scum.
+ Show Spoiler +
So first, there is the whole "Vote Kush for mayor" that people were getting on Grack's case about. Pandain was right there with him, the Grackapack going strong. Except it wasnt that strong, and Pandain was just trolling around for the hell of it. The trolling isnt really alignment indicative, but following Gracks lead is. Consider how hard Mocsta pushed Grack, and now BH is doing the same. (BC too, but I'm not convinced he's scum) Pandain's early game hesitance to call Grack scum looks fishy:

On November 16 2013 03:30 Pandain wrote:
To give my feedback on Grack:
I do think he's very suspicious, but I would have imagined him to at least be doing some sort of analysis as scum. I mean he's definitely playing anti-town but I don't think it makes him scum. My advice would be to look for someone other then Grack who's more inherently scummy rather then just suspicious.

I will be able to ascertain Grack's alignment by day two.

This is stupidly early to be planning your day2 mislynch, but considering that scum dont actually get to plan a mislynch Day 1(short of electing scum into the mayor position) I'm not ruling it out. At any rate, this is scummy to be keeping options open like this where he has carte blanche to accuse Grack.


He's trying to "confirm" himself town:
On November 16 2013 03:11 Pandain wrote:
I'm wondering if I should run for mayor if I can confirm myself as town

mmmm

I dont know what this refers to. Maybe the mason bit?
On November 16 2013 08:58 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 15 2013 21:36 yamato77 wrote:
lonemeow hasn't posted in the thread yet masoned me

interesting thought process

Did he really I'm also a mason

Why would he think that confirms him as town? Especially with the number of masons floating about. There is no way for this to confirm anyone imo and the fact that he's trying to use this as evidence that he's town is scummy. VE pointed it out during the night:
On November 17 2013 11:07 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 17 2013 11:06 Pandain wrote:
On November 17 2013 11:05 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yes that guy is equally not suspicious. That's why I'm having a hard time here. I'll out them before the night is up I think. That's probably the best way.


I agree with that, though I'm interested in what's happening.

If they're really really not suspicious then I wouldn't out them honestly. No reason to give scum more information; reason I suggest it is because me and lone are already known, so the two remaining would only be one more role that scum would know vs possibly one more scum that we would find.

In this post Pandain slips that he knows that scum only have one mason.

You're welcome guys. I'll be back before dawn.




On November 16 2013 09:01 Pandain wrote:
While I like that and think it shows town, I'm going to reread OP and then thread and then decide who to mason

I'd like to confirmation-bias this post into "Look at all the activity I'm (planning on) doing. I'm so town!"


On November 16 2013 15:03 Pandain wrote:
Posting your notes why? Trying to show your townie mess? Now scum can react to your notes mig

Scum-slips aren't supposed to be a thing...but Pandain knows mig is town based on this post.



First, here's pandains early read on storr
On November 15 2013 12:02 Pandain wrote:
Mocsta I disagree with you.
I think Storr could be scum, but it's not certain yet and your reasons are pretty weak.
You say he plays the noob card, but he did it in regards to "why not vote a noob like me mayor " which doesn't help his cause which is what scum would normally do. Not inconceivable he just did it inherently but doesn't mean he's scum for that.

Second I think you nitpick too much, he said he was still going to hunt for scum, hunt for scum is the same as hunting even when he said RNG, I think that's a bit too suspicious to say for a mayor canidateship.

"I disagree with you Mocsta, but you're right"

He calls me and storr scum here (moreso me, but still)
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 16 2013 11:11 Pandain wrote:
Yes I'm a mason. I don't think it's unlikely for there to be two, or even three masons however.

I think Hopeless is scum and Storr is scum for continually playing the newbie card so much it hurts.

Show nested quote +
On November 16 2013 07:31 Hopeless1der wrote:
more excuses for my activity incoming. Rogers fixed my internet. Now I'm going out to start my weekend. gg.


I read up on HolyFlare. I can see why rayn is pissing himself with rage. I can also see why HF would say "town read". Rayn looks better imo, but I dont see anything malicious about HF.

I wonder why Matt ignored his questions about me. Maybe he only takes request from VE.

Still dont know who to call scum


Bolded useless and scummy because it's a statement that a townie probably doesn't need to make becasue he simply wouldn't have an opinion, why a scum would post that because he's afraid of getting called out.

Show nested quote +
On November 15 2013 08:34 Hopeless1der wrote:
you lost me there storr...come again?

useless
Show nested quote +
On November 15 2013 08:18 Hopeless1der wrote:
That's not much of a running platform yam.

useless
Show nested quote +
On November 15 2013 02:37 Hopeless1der wrote:
yam's got my vote trololjk


useless

he's usually not useless

To top it off he made an excuse for not being active later on. While that's not proof in itself it doesn't help him.


and then he's slowly backing off his storr read in a haze of wish-wash
On November 16 2013 11:13 Pandain wrote:
Storr continually plays the newbie card and yet ran for mayor, then backed out quickly and keeps playing newbie card. Doesn't make sense to me unless he's trying to play a certain way. Like his first game with me he was semi-guns blazing. What happened to this game?

We end up at this post, trying to direct yamato on who to lynch:
On November 17 2013 02:31 Pandain wrote:
Yamato if you're mayor I think you should lynch hopeless or BH. I think Storr is good becasue he is playing pretty weird and he is playing the newb card so much when he really shouldn't and it's becoming really disconcerting especially since he also ran for mayor.

This completely clashes with his previous scumread on Storr. The extended duration of storr being scummy results in storr being townie? Maybe I should go back to making excuses for activity and lurking...




On November 17 2013 03:03 Pandain wrote:
I think Rayn is scum, yes. I also now think Mig is scum. I think Vayne is scum too he's playing like in ##.

If anyone were to vote those, especially the last two, I would support them.
Downgrading my reads of Hopeless since I guess I'll wait more for him and also still think Storr is playing so weird yet need to think about what it means.

So a bunch of stuff in this post. No detailed reads, Wish-wash on me, Storr is back on the table. Mig, who he inadvertently called town earlier, is now scum, and rayne/Vayne come out of nowhere as scumreads. This post screams scum to me. Pandain is all over the place and there is nothing to hold him to if he wants to pursue any other read, he keeps giving himself outs beforehand.


On November 17 2013 01:12 Pandain wrote:
I think moc is very clearly town. These are the kinds of cases he makes which don't make that much sense. He's putting in effort too into developing his cases

Association-scum-tell
--> More association scumtell: (open nested quotes)
On November 17 2013 04:49 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 17 2013 04:36 Grackaroni wrote:
On November 17 2013 04:32 Pandain wrote:
Grack do you think I'm town I'm engaging Grackapack

Do you think Mocsta is scum?


No I think he's town but you should be able to tell I'm town by now


Of note, Pandain has apparently come to the conclusion that Grack is town at this point.




+ Show Spoiler +
On November 17 2013 10:20 Pandain wrote:
I still think Storrzerg is suspicious, I simply found others who I might be more confident in. Namely Vayne and Rayn and BH.

Yes I do think he would. That's the worst thing and why I favor a Rayn lynch first. However even though I think he would do it as town I find it distinctly anti-town as it would motivate trackers to counter-claim. That is what I'm caught up on and he never addressed it.

Mocsta in my previous games I think he's always been town. I don't know what his scum play would look like but it's not this. To be frank, bad reads with a lot of effort with weird arguments are making me think he's town. This is what he's done in previous games. Scum try to hide from doing obvious bad arguments and the Mocsta post was unforced and bad. All this is making me think he's town. And yes the effort does help him though I don't think he couldn't do it as scum.

That was my first thought. re-reading him his non-analysis cases make me lean towards scum, especially this post
Show nested quote +
On November 15 2013 23:55 Mocsta wrote:
On November 15 2013 23:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On November 15 2013 23:51 Mocsta wrote:
On November 15 2013 23:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I mean:
the risak of losing a town BC far exceeds the gain from losing a scum BC, this early on in my opinion.

this is pretty bad..
BC could be scum, but you aren't even trying to interact with him to develop the read further.
it comes down to asset management.
BC is a highly respected vet. let's entertain you and say he is scum.
there are still 5 others out there, 4 if you include storrzerg.

...but this is pretty good.

???
a day1 town BC loss is a massive win for scum.

if he is scum and lynched. course its a good win fie town, but the team still has 5 members and can continue as before.

I think in this scenario, the benefit of a town vet outweighs a scum vet.
its why people say leave marv and palmar to day 2 or 3 regardless of performance.
BC fits into that grouping.

It's bad because we lynch BC if he is scum and we don't lynch him if he is town.
The argument of weighing the pros and cons of lynching him is nonsense.

there's a difference thinking someone is scum and wanting to lynch them.

I'm not going to say anything else on the matter.

we can agree to disagree.


but I definitely don't think he would have been a good lynch today or a good lynch tomorrow. I don't think he'll ever buss much because if he does he'll be alone by the end and a sole scum Mocsta should be easy to find anyway.

Who knows when mocsta decided to use his vig, but this looks bad. "storr is still suspicious, but I have other scumreads. Scum-mocsta will be easy to find" Fast-forward to NK's, storr flips town to Scum-Vig-Mocsta and Mocsta has also been vigged by some awesome townie




BH's tracker/assassin claim.
Initially, Pandain is all questions about BH's claim:
On November 17 2013 04:19 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 17 2013 04:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
HAHAHAH BH <3

What is this then. You thought it was a joke?

On November 17 2013 04:20 Pandain wrote:
Is it a real claim BH

On November 17 2013 04:47 Pandain wrote:
He's literally said it's a real claim Rayn.

On November 17 2013 04:49 Pandain wrote:
So you think he's town and not tracker? Is that your position?

He never states his own position on BH that I could find. There are some hypotheticals that allow him to say {if BH/then Rayne} but nothing concrete. At the next mention, BH is now scum:
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 18 2013 08:19 Pandain wrote:
BH needs to get lynched tomorrow.

The fact he's just started to get really active at night doesn't prove anything actually. Scum or town BH would start being active now.

Instead it's more important to realize he has been effectively afk during the thread with no real thread presence except defending himself and that is pretty unacceptable. His tracker claim is absoltely awful play as town and okay play as scum.

He varies between being active and always posting whenever he's mentioned and then not posting at all besides. Which is pretty suspicious to me.

While I'll agree the claim makes sense compared to his previous crumbs, he claimed 6 hours before mayor lynch would even be decided. Which doesn't make sense from a town perspective who wants to win, who wouldn't claim a blue role unless he was then going to do something with it.

BH claimed tracker and then didn't do anything with it except with his defense. This contrasts with his Heavyweight claim where he did claim early(did he? Can't remember how early) and then he pushed and used his town prescence to get a scum claim. BH's claim doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

Him defending his claim actually makes it twice as worse.

He comes back night one and then has a scum read on Grack. Great. okay

That's almost a day later with little to no comment from Pandain about BH. Lets the thread work themselves up about BH fakeclaiming and then allows Pandain to get on board. It is a very over-explained read to me.




I'm running out of steam to finish Pandains filter properly, so some short points from pages 9-12 of Pandains filter:
- I'm not convinced BH is scum, he may actually be an assassin. Pandain wish-washes over BH being tracker/assassin/scum and how all his reads are out to lunch if he's wrong about BH being scum. All the while he's confusing things by bringing up previous claims that BH has done without reaching conclusions.
- Mig is now a STRONG town-read. Mig's notes should be taken down/privatized but he's now town for something that he was initially town/then scum for.
- Finds meta reasons to show that Mocsta would not have bussed Grack, but Grack isnt a strong townread. Seems strange that grack isnt in his list of townies.+ Show Spoiler +
On November 19 2013 15:11 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 19 2013 15:07 LoneMeow wrote:
Pandain, you wanted Mig lynched earlier, has your read on him changed and if so, what made that happen?

I think Mig is extremely solidly town. His notes page he linked previously is online and still visible to actually see in fact.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ag5xQ7DQZXySdGlfcWVTaE5qbUJ3Wm91TUFGSFJsS0E&usp=sharing

The fact he is updating these without flaunting his notes or mentioning them leads me to believe they're honest notes. Furthermore, Mig doesn't pull these kinds of meta tricks nor would he have time to(in my opinion playing with him in Whiteflag).

He has constantly updated them, changed reads, and the reasons are valid enough.

Mig and SS are my strongest town reads.




Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 20 2013 01:05 GMT
#4025
Thats a horrible case Hopeless.
No gg, No skill.
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
November 20 2013 01:05 GMT
#4026
I knew it! FUCK! I wanted to let the assassins deal with this shit for themselves!!!
Fine we completely WASTED that day. ARGH Every game i tell myself NEVER LISTEN TO THE OTHER NEWBS AGAIN!
I should have flooded the thread like others
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
November 20 2013 01:06 GMT
#4027
On November 19 2013 03:26 VayneAuthority wrote:
dat list post

town: Thrawn, Grack, Me, Rayne, Risen, Mr. CC, Artanis, Oats

Slightly town: Koshi, Coag, Pandain, Supersoft

Slightly scum: BC, VE, austinmcc, kush

Not Town: LM, BH

Unknowns: mattchew, mig, onegu, hopeless, stutters, HF, Slam



LM and austin double lynch sounds good to me tomorrow
I come in for the scraps
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 20 2013 01:07 GMT
#4028
Im sorry what SS? Lynching people that arent town is bad?
No gg, No skill.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
November 20 2013 01:07 GMT
#4029
Yeah, no. BH needed to get lynched. He could just as easily have flipped red. He did the same thing in his last 2 scumgames. And which assassin claims assassin? Like really...
I had a good night of sleep.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
November 20 2013 01:08 GMT
#4030
On November 20 2013 10:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im sorry what SS? Lynching people that arent town is bad?

Correct you arrogant fuck. Scum just got a free night of nk's. grats
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
November 20 2013 01:09 GMT
#4031
On November 20 2013 10:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im sorry what SS? Lynching people that arent town is bad?


You hang tomorrow! Oh I get you hanged, even if i have to enlarge my filter to 100 pages!
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
November 20 2013 01:09 GMT
#4032
who was the guy that was grilling me for saying that 1 non-town always gets one of the power spots? The trend continues
I come in for the scraps
Risen
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States7927 Posts
November 20 2013 01:10 GMT
#4033
Meh, you're all horrible. I'm not surprised by this. My one night post: lynch Pandain, Holy, Austin, Rayn in that order.
Pufftrees Everyday>its like a rifter that just used X-Factor/Liquid'Nony: I hope no one lip read XD/Holyflare>it's like policy lynching but better/Resident Los Angeles bachelor
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
November 20 2013 01:10 GMT
#4034
Not surprised at the flip. I knew BH would flip antitown, hoped it'd be scum though.
We lynch Matt+some other dude tomorrow. Maybe BC.
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
November 20 2013 01:11 GMT
#4035
I dont suppose VE's mason wants to claim?
Moderator
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
November 20 2013 01:11 GMT
#4036
On November 20 2013 10:10 Risen wrote:
Meh, you're all horrible. I'm not surprised by this. My one night post: lynch Pandain, Holy, Austin, Rayn in that order.


Wise words of insight. Total confirmation of your alignment, thank you.....
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
November 20 2013 01:12 GMT
#4037
On November 20 2013 10:09 VayneAuthority wrote:
who was the guy that was grilling me for saying that 1 non-town always gets one of the power spots? The trend continues

btw VA, make sure that you put some warm milk outside so the Stray Kitten comes to visit you tomorrow. Like, he could be town.
I had a good night of sleep.
VayneAuthority
Profile Joined October 2012
United States8983 Posts
November 20 2013 01:13 GMT
#4038
what do you find town about lonemeow?
I come in for the scraps
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12971 Posts
November 20 2013 01:13 GMT
#4039
if there's still a doc out there he should RNG between me/rayn/VA.
Oatsmaster
Profile Joined October 2012
United States16628 Posts
November 20 2013 01:14 GMT
#4040
On November 20 2013 10:08 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 20 2013 10:07 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im sorry what SS? Lynching people that arent town is bad?

Correct you arrogant fuck. Scum just got a free night of nk's. grats

uh no, thats incorrect you arrogant fuck.
No gg, No skill.
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