EPTWorld Heavyweight Championship mafia - Page 14
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
rayn 3 - BH, risen, holy slosh 4 - dirk oats, rayn, clair risen 2 - sloosh, marv and this is exactly 5 minutes out from the deadline. At this point Risen or Holy could swap to Sloosh claiming they need to "ensure a lynch" or something similar, and honestly it would be a fine reason. If you're worried about a no-lynch, then yeah swap from the 3-wagon to the 4-wagon. Basically, Risen and Holy are almost certainly town for not swapping when they had a great excuse to do so. Remember, Risen has at this point swapped back and forth between rayn and sloosh a couple times. His phone is (allegedly) dying. There are 5 minutes to go. He could just vote sloosh, say "we need to ensure a lynch, phone dying kkthxbai" and basically not be terribly heavily questioned. However, as we know, Risen correctly had a hyooj boner for a Rayn lynch (link). It makes sense to me that Risen as a town player would put lynching his top scumread, Rayn, AHEAD of voting Sloosh, as long as he knows he can swap to sloosh to prevent a no-lynch. Scum Risen would almost certainly take this opportunity to say his phone was dying and just leave a vote on sloosh. After all, it didn't look like the Rayn wagon was actually happening at this point. One might speculate that Risen was trying to make a no-lynch happen. But honestly? He wrote a case on Rayne. He tried to save himself (when he and sloosh were the two wagons, and/or there was danger of no-lynch) by voting sloosh, against his better judgement. When given the opportunity, he went out on a limb and voted for Rayn. His actions match that imo of town who actually did think Rayn was scum, and was down for shenannnies I'm gonna give Risen a pretty solid townread. I think Holyflare also deserves a townread in this case. Unlike Risen, HF had a scumread on Sloosh (link) and was even pushing for his lynch earlier in the day (link). His willingness to vote Rayn coupled with his generally pro-town and analysis heavy play lead me to believe he is also town. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 04 2013 15:49 Oatsmaster wrote: I kinda wanna know whos scum BH OH JEEZ SORRY AM I NOT CATCHING ENOUGH SCUM FOR YOU SORRY OATS | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
i'm all up on dis | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
probably marv but honestly I need to sit down with the dirk filter and figure out what he's been up to. quiet is bad. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
if we just lynch marv then oats then dirk we will 100% win if scum is in them so my main goal should be to just prove that there is no scum amongst {HF, Risen, Clarity, Sloosh} | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
scum is probably amongst the 3 people who didn't lynch rayn, and we can lynch all three of them if we really need to. I'll firm up (or prove wrong!) my townreads on clarity and sloosh after I wake up. Then, from oats marv dirk i'll show off my top scumread or order of scumminess or whatever we honestly probably already won but i'll make sure there is no doubt, or if there is doubt, i'll channel it the right way. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 04 2013 17:28 Dirkzor wrote: BH I'm here. I'm reading the thread and trying to figure out everything. Might be a long while before I actually produce anything but ask away if you want. I'll refresh from time to time I'm just heading to bed but I'd say the only really important thing is, do you have even a somewhat scumread on: Risen Holyflare Sloosh Clarity If we can establish these 4 as town, we win. I think they're town in part based on the shenanigans surrounding the lynch that began here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430498¤tpage=59 I think Risen and Holyflare are almost certainly town based on the situation here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430498¤tpage=62 basically, 7 minutes from the lynch, rayn and clarity simultaneously vote sloosh, putting sloosh at 4. Risen and HF could have both moved their votes to sloosh (HF had been pushing him earlier, and Risen had swapped numerous times in the last few minutes), and have the added benefit of "preventing a no-lynch". For several crucial minutes, until sloosh voted Rayn, there was an easy excuse to vote sloosh. Even afterwards, it was at 4-4-1, and a swap would have still been defensible to "prevent a no-lynch"-- I suspect actually preventing a no-lynch was the reason clarity ended up voting rayn over sloosh. He didn't want a no-lynch. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Sloosh is the only guy on the Rayn wagon who IMO isn't basically confirmed town coming out of that exchange, since as scum one might easily imagine him deciding that the drunken and almost-wagoned rayn was unlikely to survive, and he, Sloosh, was the superior scum, the one who would be more likely to win if allowed to live past D1. I have no evidence for this theory, but honestly Sloosh is the only one who I could even begin to have a scumread on, and last I checked he seemed really townie to me. Ultimately, most of what ANYONE has to say is irrelevant unless it shows one of the following is scum. And ultimately, the only one who can really potentially be scum is Sloosh. Tell me if you have a scumread on any of The Four in light of recent events, and most importantly, why. Especially RE: Sloosh. I want to be able to wake up tomorrow, and read what you think and be able to write some good final thoughts for you guys to work off of. Also if there's a flaw with my "lynch marv, oats and dirk so town auto wins" strategy (besides the possibility of sloosh scum) let me know too. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 04 2013 17:38 Dirkzor wrote: I'll take a look. Still only at 46/66 though. no problem, take your time, i'm heading to bed. whatever thoughts you have, please share them. I'm gonna have a weird schedule tomorrow since I have a job interview starting 2.5 hours before the deadline, so I've laid out a lot of where I think my thought processes will go. Ideally what I leave behind ensures a win for town even in my absence. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 04 2013 17:58 Oatsmaster wrote: I think sloosh is the only one who is even the least bit likely of those 4. The rest are pretty much town. yeah also my thoughts. So basically if we can be sure that all 4 of them are town, we win, we just lynch all 3 of marv/oats/dirk. we have 3 lynches. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On October 05 2013 03:03 marvellosity wrote: if you genuinely think i'm mafia still, i'd really really like you to look at the game as if i were town and produce thoughts on that basis before you die. i mean if I think you're town, we just lynch sloosh dirk oats and win. risen and holyflare are probably town for stickign to the wagon when there were 3 votes on rayn and 4 on sloosh (both could have reasonably voted for sloosh, and double reasonably since we were minutes from the lynch without a majority) clarity hammered rayn. that leaves sloosh and dirk oats marv as the group i think the final scum is in if I assume marv is town then it's easy, we lynch sloosh dirk oats. | ||
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