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On October 02 2013 17:56 playerboy345 wrote:Koshi mentioned: Show nested quote +On September 30 2013 21:17 Koshi wrote:
heavenz If stormtemplar is a scum roleblocker the setup is TTTTBVC Remember that scum roleblocker does not give 2 extra B's in the draft.
So that means that Bella24 is just a goon and not a GF for your theory. Which doesn't change anything.
But it is interesting that you come to the conclusion that there is a GF. I wonder if this is a scumslip because stormtemplar is really a town roleblocker and you know there is a GF. You just swapped the names around. After which he posts: Show nested quote +On September 30 2013 21:20 Koshi wrote:
I am going to believe stormtemplar tbh. There was no reason for him to claim RB after a RB already flipped. wtf the chances of this setup are low. like REALLY LOW. I can't believe this shit... Later he posts: Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 03:24 Koshi wrote:
We know all roles unless they lie about their role...
storm claimed second town RB.
Which has the lowest chance of happening. I almost want to lynch the guy.
These posts plus the fact that he "forgot" to RB someone is scummy in my opinion. He might have been scared that Koshi would figure him out and decided to NK him in the hopes that people would attack someone else. I have the feeling heavenz is trying to get me lynched first to "clear" himself of suspicion. He just keeps saying stuff like playerboy town 100%, effectively drawing attention to me. heavenz' filter looks way scummier compared to stormtemplars, but stormtemplar "forgetting" to RB is just so unbelievable that it makes him look scummy :/
Yes basically the stars need to have aligned for us to roll BBB, hit the mafia blocker, out-metaed mafia to neither block nor kill the town blocker, and him forgetting to block anyone... it'd be like a perfect storm working for scum.
I'm still not sure I can vote anyone except stormtemplar, though. The circumstances point at him as scum just about as clearly as anything possibly can in a Mafia game.
Oh, by the way, regarding SKs: even if stormtemplar would be mafia roleblocker and we would have a doctor, it means an SK as well, I just realized. So not out of the realm of possibility.
But no evidence of a doctor and it's LYLO so doesn't really matter today, have to lynch scum.
Oh, and I checked why I had dismissed JonnyLaw/heavenz for mafia; it was before stormtemplar claimed town roleblocker. It's possible if stormtemplar's claim is true. They would have needed some careful risks to get here, though. Irrelevant for now I suppose except as an explanation for the odd night event.
We should lynch heavenz or stormtemplar tonight. Just in case I miss the deadline (I have some real life complications), I'll bet with the odds rather than my gut for now:
##Vote stormtemplar
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EBWOP: No, actually I had just made a mistake dismissing JonnyLaw/heavenz to begin with. Miscounting the roleblocks. Was never impossible. Still feels unlikely, just want to be clear and correct myself now.
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It's unlikely, just something that struck me when I was trying to figure out how the night actions happened the way they did. There was one perspective from which they would have made perfect sense and been the ideal choice--heavenz/JonnyLaw.
Strongly bussed, risky scum play earlier in the game, yes. I'm not putting much time into investigating it further; the only detail from their filters that hints possible scum team is JonnyLaw saying that he would vote heavenz but then going for you playerboy. Anyway, you yourself have more ties to heavenz. And focus needs to be on whether we believe heavenz or stormtemplar is the scum roleblocker, either way.
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On October 02 2013 22:28 heavenz wrote:
that's the thing, I wish you would read what I said, or even consider it.
The fact is that one mafia wasn't participating in the game ever, this means, everyone knows after it was discussed day1 that this person will be modkilled.
So scum was basicly one down already, in what circumstance what you buss your teammate on day1 when you are already 1 man down, like... never?
I mean mafia has to be retarded as hell to get lynched on day1.
Balla24 defendes stormtemplar dispite everything, right away. I pointed those posts out, just read them. The goal of the mafia will be to surivve day1 with as few casualties as possible, it will make the game for them harder already having one guy modkilled, you wouldn't let the otherone go down carelessly. (reread my longer post).
anyway for me this is an obvious vote ##stormtemplar
You keep saying odd things like this, and the thing is, I think you know better. I have read your old mafia game and your old scum QT from it.
If you are scum and basically have 2 people in a group of 13, expecting tons of modkills, it would be a solid strategy to go bussing your scum mate... You take a measured risk with it. You don't end up at LYLO x 2 with a strong connection to each other; you try to make sure that you play 1 + 1 scum rather than 2, just pushing other people harder than each other.
The only reason not to do that is if someone is really nervous about playing scum and afraid their bussing will have too strong an effect. I don't see that if you and playerboy are scum. Maybe it's plausible for stormtemplar/Balla. Unfortunately, that's another factor that makes both very possible.
I'm still sticking with stormtemplar for now, but doing some last digging
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I'm swapping to heavenz. My gut and my reads throughout more than half the game is starting to outweigh some strange notion that a very confused stormtemplar as scum tried to cover himself by randomly roleblocking JonnyLaw.
I realize I'm betting that scum had their perfect storm; basically, that the coin flip landed on edge. But this is how I'll feel better about the game when it ends, right or wrong.
If everyone else stays on stormtemplar (ironic name with the metaphor I used) he received 3 votes first and will be lynched, I'm fine with that too, the odds are a safer bet.
##Vote heavenz
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...that said, my belly's full of butterflies and I think I might look very stupid this entire game in a moment
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Up to you. Stay on him if you are town and doubt JonnyLaw is scum, playerboy, since it's you asking
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Very well played guys, you earned it scum team
gg
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I guess I'm glad I believed stormtemplar in the end, just wish the situation hadn't become only about believing him or not
So two RBers hit heavenz I guess? What are the odds haha
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Yeah I tried to post a lot more than I'm actually comfortable with just to push the game ahead. I'm (supposedly) better at analysis and reads than pressure. But I did everything wrong this game it seems
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On October 03 2013 07:13 cakepie wrote:
also improbable ≠ impossible
Yes I'm always aware of this, I was dismissing things pretty hard because I realized we would have a LYLO after day 2... One of the gambles I made was to dismiss the possibility of a scum and town RB hitting heavenz. Turns out to be a big mistake, obviously.
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Personally, I pretty much had every possibility left in my mind but I realized there was not going to be much active pressure happening at LYLO. So I had to focus on whether to believe stormtemplar and remove some of the unlikely possibilities, try to apply some focused pressure myself on just a couple of people (anything else would be too diffuse and let scum breeze through, I felt)
2 Town Roleblockers + a scum and town roleblocker hitting heavenz seemed one of the more remote possibilities (since I wasn't roleblocked either)
My mistake
Sorry, heavenz, JonnyLaw, by the way. You each had a piece to the game I think
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But a lot of what you were saying about Balla had to do with him defending stormtemplar, didn't it? That's why I didn't focus on him, instead stormtemplar
Balla played a clever game, he wasn't tied to his scum mate much at all
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The hint for stormtemplar was (and I thought stormtemplar understood when he EBWOPed something like "heavenz/playerboy mafia" before going to bed/away monday) that he should RB playerboy. If no other RB had happened then, we would first have suspected heavenz. But we might have figured it out, I wouldn't be as extremely sceptical of stormtemplar then
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Might sign for the next one in a few days. I've enjoyed this one and Noir and could do another Newbie, but I'm a little demotivated for the moment
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Thanks guys, we'll see
I'm pretty sure scum played a better game here though
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Yes good game, I'm glad it turned into something interesting even with the inactives.
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I see obs QT seemed to share that notion, but I don't see it myself. So much of what I did would have been so risky as scum, including claiming 1-Shot Cop with a town check rather than saying I had a red check on playerboy or something (I probably even should have faked that as town if I trusted my gut a bit more and was confident enough to make any fake claim, by the way--that'd certainly have been a different game after)
But I suppose I don't know how I would play scum until I do.
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Ah actually I hadn't even thought much about that angle, as scum I couldn't fake a red check without sacrificing myself of course. Hmm yes my play would have made sense as scum. It's funny I hadn't even needed to consider it much
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Well keep in mind what kind of information town lost and how much you gained as mafia day 1. In a lot of ways the game basically reset at 7-2 with redistributed power roles. I have no idea about the balance of it, but I know a demotivated town ruined a whole lot of interaction because of inactivity. Just hurts the game in general
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EPT
