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Heavenz is just claiming Vanilla Town I think, so no second vigi.
But obviously the game is still pretty open now for the coming LYLO, and my cop check on JonnyLaw is not of as much value except to significantly lower the odds that he's scum.
I doubt a Doc at this point, but we could have. I'm not sure I'd be glad if we did since it means an SK at LYLO.
Anyway, no more time tonight for me to look into this. Should be a lot for everyone to discuss, and heavenz gets a slight credibility boost since Stormtemplar supports his story. I'm personally not as certain as I was on heavenz/playerboy mafia, though it's still my best bet.
Hmm so Koshi is just about confirmed town getting Roleblocked by mafia. We're down to pretty few options and possible fake claim combinations at this point.
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I thought so as well at first, but then I've made a lot of mistakes this game so I can prove my idiocy already.
Ok I'm trying to look at as many angles as possible (even if I ought to be looking at my other current Mafia game or sleeping). The most obvious scum team is heavenz + playerboy. Jonnylaw is against playerboy, Balla is against heavenz. Stormtemplar and I are against heavenz + playerboy
Possible scum teams:
heavenz/playerboy
JonnyLaw (GF)/Balla (RB)
JonnyLaw (GF)/heavenz (RB)
playerboy/Balla
Without thinking outside the box and unlikely possibilities (though it's going to be LYLO, so once one confirmed town dies tonight, we have to consider everything). Because of my cop check, the JonnyLaw/Heavenz combo is 100% heavenz Roleblocker, and as RB, successfully getting his RB off while being RBed. This is not possible, I believe? I think not, which makes this scum team impossible.
A scum team with heavenz in it is more likely to Roleblock Blurry N1 than the other combinations, IMO. More support for heavenz/playerboy as a scum team.
The only line of thinking for likely scum teams I haven't investigated at all is playerboy/Balla and JonnyLaw/Balla
Filter diving on any connections or contradictions to base my own call on tomorrow (or this morning, if insomnia decides).
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Filters aren't telling me much new. I really should have swapped onto heavenz or stayed on playerboy all along.
There are other scum teams possible with careful bussing, but essentially the entire day 1 was meaningless because of lurkers, and I am just not getting better reads. heavenz and playerboy make sense. Minimal bussing for major active players, both made very scummy plays. heavenz shifted reads a lot, including town reading playerboy at a critical juncture, going from some careful suspicion early on.
This could almost be a scum slip, and I should definitely have spotted it sooner:
On September 30 2013 03:49 heavenz wrote:
you mentioned it probably, but playerboys voting behavior is scummy. It almost seems like he knew that mylunch was town, and went for wounderboy knowing he wouldn't get a majority on that player that time, effectivly throwing his vote away, just to get some town credit (or end up on the misslynch group).
then again, I share berefts thoughts on wounderboy, and have to agree with playboy that he never participated in anyway in a analysis of a player he thought was scummy. He just posted like I feel bad about him, but never bothered to do dig deeper.
On September 30 2013 03:56 heavenz wrote:
imho you're town
On September 30 2013 04:07 heavenz wrote:
if we lynch onlywounderboy it has the advantage that it would clear playboy, the otherway around it wouldn't yield much.
On September 30 2013 04:07 heavenz wrote:
edit: it has the possiblity that it could clear* sorry.
Think I'm done diving and digging, I'm set. heavenz and playerboy mafia, anything else, low chance for me.
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Ok if I'm setting everything correctly in my head... Either we believe Stormtemplar is town RB, RBing heavenz who is scum RB, Bereft RBing Blurry as town, if his RB goes through on death? Or Stormtemplar scum RB, RBing heavenz and we have a Doctor or something. And Bereft would still have RBed Blurry.
If that's really the case, it narrows down the field a lot since it means heavenz or Stormtemplar must be mafia, correct? I wasn't inclined to believe both of them can be, since Stormtemplar is quite willing to kill heavenz (though... that does mean, 2 LYLOs coming, Stormtemplar could survive and win anyway, so it doesn't clear him)
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But Stormtemplar/no one should die tonight? (Sorry I asked about roles coming out, by the way, if so, I thought a 1-Shot RB/Vig or something might be left, at most, or that whoever came out would claim 1-Shot whether they were or not) Meaning afterwards, heavenz is confirmed scum.
Or Koshi came in fake claiming getting roleblocked out of nowhere, but that would almost be too cruel to believe for a newbie game, hah
Or an RB hit another inactive so they didn't speak up. Or the scum RB had to make the NK rather than RB because of an inactive buddy. Highly unlikely.
Heavenz, no I think not. GF/Goon/Goon not possible for our number of power roles.
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That doesn't make sense heavenz. If you are town, Stormtemplar is 100% mafia to you.. Either as RB, or lying about RBing you so that instead Bereft did you and scum did Blurry.
I think you are the mafia Roleblocker.
Koshi, what would happen except nothing? They are just blocking each other from doing anything by targeting each other.
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Ah yes I just assumed so, but good to make sure, yes
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(I was overstating it a bit for pressure effect on heavenz, Koshi, with the 100%)
It's possible, but then you assume one Roleblock from scum or Bereft went on someone who didn't say anything (another person except Blurry). Remote possibility
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Ah yeah, someone could have double-stacked a roleblock as well, another remote possibility
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If someone has been Roleblocked by two Roleblockers in one night, are they notified twice?
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Ok...
I hope that means we out-metaed mafia from going Stormtemplar, but now we have a conundrum.
Roleblocks, guys?
Stormtemplar who did you block?
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The NK was decent, but you being roleblocked and us having a NK at all makes no sense... Unless me and Koshi's attempt to out-meta mafia's NK went terribly wrong and out-metaed someone else too
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Heavenz, I don't think you're mafia based on wrong decisions, that happens a lot more to town than mafia since mafia knows everything and will always just nudge in the wrong direction while trying to appear as towny as possible. I base it on what you've said and your reactions.
But I will admit:
Look at Stormtemplar and Balla24 again, they blamed my aphatically play on beeing SK, which also makes no sense, or on me beeing mafia RB, like if' I'ld cry about that lol. I won my first game as scum, that would be retarded to play like that.
This was odd, and is just about the only reason I haven't dismissed Stormtemplar or Balla as mafia. That's really not how an SK would play at all, and any amount of thought about it would bring you to that conclusion. Odd thing to coordinate about in scum QT too though.
Need to think about the situation more, and absolutely need to know why Stormtemplar's RB didn't land right, that could tell us a whole lot.
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Stormtemplar's block first
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Ugh
You see, Koshi and I were setting up for you to maybe, hopefully, survive and roleblock Playerboy, in which case if Playerboy is mafia, no one died tonight and we had a confirmed mafia team, basically. We were hinting towards scum to do something unexpected and mess up. What they should have done (if heavenz/playerboy) is kill you using their roleblocker's NK and let the GF sit out
And yes, now we might have to kill you for this I'm afraid and hope it was a scum move
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That doesn't make sense unfortunately. If heavenz/playerboy is the scum team, there would have been no NK and playerboy would be confirmed GF, heavenz basically confirmed Roleblocker.
If a night kill and a roleblock had happened like it did just now but you had told us you roleblocked PLayerboy, it would have made Playerboy confirmed town through you and we would have a big town circle. We would know where to look.
Now you look scummiest of all as a scum roleblocker in a RB/Goon/Goon team instead, and I don't know at all whether it's a scum move or blunder.
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Ok done is done.
JonnyLaw is pretty solid town now, and he was making a pretty good effort at a Stormtemplar/Playerboy case early which just about clears him from a team with STormtemplar.
Likliest scum combinations Stormtemplar/Balla, heavenz/playerboy
Stormtemplar/Heavenz possible but I find the way they set things up early then to be highly unlikely.
Stormemplar/playerboy also unlikely from earlier events.
Looking at other possibilities
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What is your take on the early Stormtemplar accusations?
Do you think this mistake fit with his play earlier?
Would you put him in any scum team?
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It's LYLO. We have to lynch scum right now, and the possible scum teams are pretty mutually exclusive as far as likelihood goes. The plan after that isn't relevant now, so we need to know who is scum and probably who the scum team is.
If we lynch a townie we lose.
At night, you--if you are alive, which I'm not sure you should be--will have a coinflip battle against scum and they will be prepared for the meta game this time. It's not relevant now
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No actually I'm stupid, if we survive after the lynch it means only one mafia left and you can roleblock them if we know who it is, and gg
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EPT
