EPTGoing to mulligan everything. Consider all of my posts before this one completely meaningless.
I will carry this. I'm the best positioned to do so.
Desert Mini Mafia - Page 98
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Going to mulligan everything. Consider all of my posts before this one completely meaningless. I will carry this. I'm the best positioned to do so. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On September 04 2013 12:26 yamato77 wrote: So I have some more time to reconsider, hm. Going to mulligan everything. Consider all of my posts before this one completely meaningless. I will carry this. I'm the best positioned to do so. How quickly can you mulligan? We have 48 hours. Gotta move quick. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 04 2013 13:03 Hapahauli wrote: How quickly can you mulligan? We have 48 hours. Gotta move quick. I'm going to do it tonight. I have time. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Sylencia Onegu yamato77 Tutankoopa/Thrawn marvellosity For there almost certainly being 3 scum in those 6 players this game sure is hard. Debears wanted to lynch rayn until he got modkilled, and I agree that rayn's vet claim makes *no* sense given the conditional nature of all the power roles we know of so far (admittedly the scum RB doesn't seem very conditional). However, If we mislynch today the water level hits 1000 no matter what (based on my understanding of how the water mechanic is working) so... I feel like there are too many unknowns for a rayn lynch right now. Lynching yamato is surprisingly attractive right now given that his 3-man scumteam of last night are all town, although I'm willing to see what he can come up with on the "mulligan". I mean, his activity has distinctly spiked compared to his last 3 consecutive scum-games which gives me a few misgivings, but I'm willing to believe that he is easily capable of putting on that one spat with marv/hapa at the start then calming down as scum. My gut says sylencia is another real candidate, at least in part because of how smoothly the lynch slid off of him D1 when its clear that the only 2 lynch candidates D1 that could possibly be scum were thrawn and him. Other than that, most of what I have to say is simply that this thread would be 18 million times easier to read and easier for town to solve if rayn didn't feel the need to ruin it constantly :/ Marv managed to inflate his filter by 3 or so pages purely calling rayn a dumbass, which is entirely correct but also makes it harder to really follow marv and it's hard not to have some suspicions there when the game has gone so poorly. Sorry that post was mostly just me typing whatever came into my head. PS: Useless setup speculation: It's safe to say that scum NK's are worth 50 water, since they achieved their NK tonight and it balanced-out perfectly with our doctor save. In addition, for balance reasons it prevents town losing D2 if town mislynches twice (which we did). As such, while I'm really unsure if it would help town much, a no-lynch isn't too unreasonable an option. Admittedly all that happens is we lose our doctor (ugh) but I'm willing to assume that he will be roleblocked and killed in fairly short order anyway so this isn't too huge a loss. The problem is that we need his insight for as long as possible. TL;DR we are at MyLo not Lylo or w/e. If we mislynch we lose but if we no-lynch we don't lose on the spot. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On August 22 2013 06:29 Dandel Ion wrote: Setup Q&A
On September 04 2013 07:58 Hapahauli wrote: Since we're approaching LYLO, claiming seems like the best option. A mass-claim is probably a good idea right now. I'm the Conditional Doctor. I can only use my power when the "water level" is over 750, and a successful save reduces the water level by 50. No breadcrumbs, nor do I ever use them as town. Saving debears, and hopefully a successful save and a drop in water-level will vindicate my claim to those suspicious of me. Wish me luck! On September 04 2013 08:21 Hapahauli wrote: Host gave me some vague answer, saying that "any blocked KP would result in -50 water level" On September 04 2013 08:24 Hapahauli wrote: What are you even talking about? I do know what it does with mafia KP. I.e if I block mafia KP, the water level goes down 50. I have no fucking clue what it does to 3rd party self-damaging shit Upon close examination of the OP, the role PM of debears and the claim from Hapa, this is certainly noteworthy. It doesn't mean he's mafia, but I will not consider him confirmed town in my reread of the game, as he might wish for us to do today. There very well could be a mafia doctor in this strange setup. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Yeah ur full of it. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:14 Sn0_Man wrote: A mafia doctor that makes the water level go *down*? or how else are you explaining the water level netting -100 last night after debears's action AND there being a "successful" NK? Yeah ur full of it. How do you know how much an NK affects the water level, if at all? The OP says it does, but does that mean EVERY NK does? I find it disturbing that you blindly trust claims in a closed setup. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On August 22 2013 06:29 Dandel Ion wrote: Nightkills affect the point total. There are roles with potential of affecting the point total That is pretty clear lol. I certainly don't blindly trust claims (see: rayn's BS), but I do trust obviously true ones. Anyway, I find it disturbing that this is what you feel is the most important point to bring forward after your "mulligan". | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:19 yamato77 wrote: It's possible that this is a valid explanation, however. Still, one can never be too cautious. We lose on a mislynch. Sure but trying to expand our lynch options to obvious town hapa is not "being cautious" its increasing our chances of a mislynch aka losing on the spot. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:20 Sn0_Man wrote: Sure but trying to expand our lynch options to obvious town hapa is not "being cautious" its increasing our chances of a mislynch aka losing on the spot. The whole point of a mulligan is to start the game completely fresh, without necessarily considering your preconceived notions of how people have played the game so far. First, I try to figure out as much about the setup as I can, then I try to look at voting. If either of those fail to produce leads as to possible mafia, then I rely on carefully combing the thread for scumtells and the like. It's worked in the past. It will work this game. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Well of my 3 man "scum-team" (aka mislynch-roster), 2 have proven themselves or flipped town. I really need an excuse to 180 on everything so... "Mulligan" time. It is true, town in the same situation does the same thing, but I really don't see town starting off with some BS about hapa not being confirmed town  . Voting far less informative this game than I had hoped since Day 1 was fairly "runaway" with 8 votes to 3, and day 2 was a "close race" between 2 townies. However, if you can spot anything really useful I'd love to hear it. I do somewhat feel like Syl and Thrawn look a bit bad from day 1 voting, but nothing too conclusive. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:35 Sn0_Man wrote: I can wait, but so far your "mulligan" feels a lot more like: Well of my 3 man "scum-team" (aka mislynch-roster), 2 have proven themselves or flipped town. I really need an excuse to 180 on everything so... "Mulligan" time. It is true, town in the same situation does the same thing, but I really don't see town starting off with some BS about hapa not being confirmed town . Voting far less informative this game than I had hoped since Day 1 was fairly "runaway" with 8 votes to 3, and day 2 was a "close race" between 2 townies. However, if you can spot anything really useful I'd love to hear it. I do somewhat feel like Syl and Thrawn look a bit bad from day 1 voting, but nothing too conclusive. I look deeper than just the votecounts. A really effective tactic is to scan through someone's filter looking at votes and unvotes, and read why they voted or unvoted. I already have a sneaking suspicion about one player just based off this. | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:50 Sn0_Man wrote: I hope it's marv Actually it's Rayn | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
Either way, looking forward to this expose of yours. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:59 Sn0_Man wrote: Oooo. Hows it compare/contrast to last game where the only scummer he ever had his vote on (as a townie) was you? Either way, looking forward to this expose of yours. I'm building notes right now on all of you before I do anything like make a post. I'm going to be sure of my suspicions before I do anything else. | ||
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
On September 05 2013 01:50 Sn0_Man wrote: I hope it's marv Marv does look really bad, too Like holy fuck his votes are shit | ||
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