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GoT Mafia: Lords and Liars - Page 166

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Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
August 15 2013 18:13 GMT
#3301
See I thought that and then slowly I started thinking...
Wait, that's not a sack of balls, that's a sack of potatoes!
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
August 15 2013 18:14 GMT
#3302
On August 16 2013 03:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2013 03:00 s0Lstice wrote:
Let's talk about that yamato vivax thing.

Going after yamato in PMs means what exactly. At the end of D1, yamato look pretty clearly bad. The scum team had to recognize this just like the rest of us did. How much credit do we assign Vivax for pushing to make yamato take...1 HP damage? This would be irrelevant just by itself, but even more so if yamato is looking like a lynch tomorrow anyway.


I was arguing back at vivax that yamato was null in my eyes.
Hell, oats was trying to convince me yamato was town during n1!

I was one of the few people that had no clear opinion on yamato, and vivax tried to convince me he's scum. Why?
A yamato lynch was nowhere near a certainty d2 without the redcheck. Scum could have easily tried to direct the lynch elsewhere.
The only reason a scum vivax would do that is if sharrant was scum too and vivax knew the redcheck was going to happen, and I don't buy that.

It's not a perfect explanation, I'm not saying vivax is completely town because of it, but it makes him townier than snb, and as I've said they can't both be scum.


Why couldn't scum do this? I bussed fuba and stutters all game in Basterd Mini because I knew I wasn't putting them in real danger. How damaging is it to yamato for Vivax to make you go from null to scum on him? Not very. It only gets easier to rule it out as a scum on scum interaction if Vivax was here in thread pushing yamato's lynch with force when it was unpopular and seeing it through to the end, and even then you can never be sure

Yamato was basically a good bus. If I was scum I'd have probably bussed the shit out of him towards the end of Day 1.

I just don't see those PMs being conclusive either way.
ATOBTTR
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
August 15 2013 18:17 GMT
#3303
On August 16 2013 03:14 s0Lstice wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2013 03:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
On August 16 2013 03:00 s0Lstice wrote:
Let's talk about that yamato vivax thing.

Going after yamato in PMs means what exactly. At the end of D1, yamato look pretty clearly bad. The scum team had to recognize this just like the rest of us did. How much credit do we assign Vivax for pushing to make yamato take...1 HP damage? This would be irrelevant just by itself, but even more so if yamato is looking like a lynch tomorrow anyway.


I was arguing back at vivax that yamato was null in my eyes.
Hell, oats was trying to convince me yamato was town during n1!

I was one of the few people that had no clear opinion on yamato, and vivax tried to convince me he's scum. Why?
A yamato lynch was nowhere near a certainty d2 without the redcheck. Scum could have easily tried to direct the lynch elsewhere.
The only reason a scum vivax would do that is if sharrant was scum too and vivax knew the redcheck was going to happen, and I don't buy that.

It's not a perfect explanation, I'm not saying vivax is completely town because of it, but it makes him townier than snb, and as I've said they can't both be scum.


Why couldn't scum do this? I bussed fuba and stutters all game in Basterd Mini because I knew I wasn't putting them in real danger. How damaging is it to yamato for Vivax to make you go from null to scum on him? Not very. It only gets easier to rule it out as a scum on scum interaction if Vivax was here in thread pushing yamato's lynch with force when it was unpopular and seeing it through to the end, and even then you can never be sure

Yamato was basically a good bus. If I was scum I'd have probably bussed the shit out of him towards the end of Day 1.

I just don't see those PMs being conclusive either way.


I think there was a small chance of yamato getting lynched pre redcheck.
I think had vivax convinced me there would have been a much much bigger chance.
See no reason to do it as scum, especially since only I would give him towniepoints for it and no one else.

That said, this pm stuff snb pointed out looks pretty bad for vivax, maybe, let's see if he shows up.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:23 GMT
#3304
snb is not best lynch
vivax is better lynch but not best

johnnywup is best lynch
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 15 2013 18:27 GMT
#3305
Where is Kush? He disappeared as soon as the discussion moved on. Or is he working on some giant post? Otherwise, let's just kill him tonight #1 priority. johnnywup should be after that.

I think Vivax has a slightly higher chance of flipping scum than snb. I'm also glad to see snb giving reads. In fact, I'm happier with a Vivax lynch overall. Mostly gut feeling, partly iamperfection's stance, partly convenient short posting sprees and disappearances, partly him not being a useful asset to town (even though he should be).

##Vote Vivax
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
August 15 2013 18:28 GMT
#3306
On August 16 2013 03:17 Clarity_nl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2013 03:14 s0Lstice wrote:
On August 16 2013 03:03 Clarity_nl wrote:
On August 16 2013 03:00 s0Lstice wrote:
Let's talk about that yamato vivax thing.

Going after yamato in PMs means what exactly. At the end of D1, yamato look pretty clearly bad. The scum team had to recognize this just like the rest of us did. How much credit do we assign Vivax for pushing to make yamato take...1 HP damage? This would be irrelevant just by itself, but even more so if yamato is looking like a lynch tomorrow anyway.


I was arguing back at vivax that yamato was null in my eyes.
Hell, oats was trying to convince me yamato was town during n1!

I was one of the few people that had no clear opinion on yamato, and vivax tried to convince me he's scum. Why?
A yamato lynch was nowhere near a certainty d2 without the redcheck. Scum could have easily tried to direct the lynch elsewhere.
The only reason a scum vivax would do that is if sharrant was scum too and vivax knew the redcheck was going to happen, and I don't buy that.

It's not a perfect explanation, I'm not saying vivax is completely town because of it, but it makes him townier than snb, and as I've said they can't both be scum.


Why couldn't scum do this? I bussed fuba and stutters all game in Basterd Mini because I knew I wasn't putting them in real danger. How damaging is it to yamato for Vivax to make you go from null to scum on him? Not very. It only gets easier to rule it out as a scum on scum interaction if Vivax was here in thread pushing yamato's lynch with force when it was unpopular and seeing it through to the end, and even then you can never be sure

Yamato was basically a good bus. If I was scum I'd have probably bussed the shit out of him towards the end of Day 1.

I just don't see those PMs being conclusive either way.


I think there was a small chance of yamato getting lynched pre redcheck.
I think had vivax convinced me there would have been a much much bigger chance.
See no reason to do it as scum, especially since only I would give him towniepoints for it and no one else.

That said, this pm stuff snb pointed out looks pretty bad for vivax, maybe, let's see if he shows up.


Yea I dunno, getting townie points with you seems fine and dandy for scum motivation. There was no guarantee you were gonna have vote power anytime soon right?
ATOBTTR
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
August 15 2013 18:28 GMT
#3307
I think sharrant and acro have both said johnny looks town from pms? As I said in my list post he looks scum to me but it's that that is holding me back.
snb did a nice dissection of why his thread stuff looks scum, although the house list really isn't indicative of anything, it was asked for.

So I guess I'd like to hear more from sharrant and acro first.
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:30 GMT
#3308
seeming town from pm's is basically worthless at this point because you only have to fool one person and not everyone.

there's been time enough to extend that thusly by now.
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 15 2013 18:30 GMT
#3309
Indeed. Just give good reasons why johnnywup should live. And more importantly, who instead of him?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Sharrant
Profile Joined August 2012
Canada543 Posts
August 15 2013 18:35 GMT
#3310
On August 12 2013 22:51 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 12 2013 22:50 iamperfection wrote:
On August 12 2013 22:47 Koshi wrote:
On August 12 2013 22:35 iamperfection wrote:
On August 12 2013 22:34 Koshi wrote:
On August 12 2013 22:32 Onegu wrote:
Btw its not just Snb and Vivax absent, Jrkirby hasnt posted, and I think koshi also just posted for the first time.

THAT REMINDS ME OF YOUR SHITTY CASE ON ME. HAHAHAHA

You scum Onegu?

lol speaking of shitty cases maybe you should go read the one you just posted.

You can only claim stupid or scum tbh.
What vigi was ever going to shoot gumshoe? herpderp I better us my vigi shot on a 1 hp lurker (or at least very low) Like how is that even the most plausible reason why gum died???? Most likely is that one in your House is scum or you are scum. Like 99% scum killed gumshoe, 1% a retarded vigi.

listen you retard how the fuck would the vigi know that gum had 1 hp

IT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY LOW AFTER ALL LORDS SHOT HIM?

Ok maybe not 1 hp. But it wasn't going to be 15 HP. wtfff? Like how do you even refuse to see that this doesn't make sense?

And of couse nobody in the thread is paying attention to me when I am actually finding scum............ Typical.


This is the post that caught my attention and made me really analyze Koshi. In this post he talks about how stupid it would be for a vigi to shoot gumshoe, but his reasoning is almost entirely based on health values.

(Note: Some of this may read awkwardly, but it's the information we have now. While we know Iamp is not the vigi, he potentially could have been at the time)

Now, as far as I know, no other house aside from Iamp's had claimed the use of a health check. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). Iamp could not have shared that information with anyone outside of his house during the night phase (unless he's mafia, but he's not). So there's only 2 possible people that could be a vigi AND know the health value (Iamp and the two house members that aren't gumshoe).

At best, our vigi can know of one shot actually being fired at gumshoe (from being a lord himself) or he may have no actual confirmation of any shots being fired, but think it was likely. Or he may think it was entirely WIFOM and they fired at their own targets/someone else etc.

This is combined with the fact that our vigi would only be able to guess at someone's total health based off his shot value, and the lord KP value.

Koshi's comments all assume that the vigi has knowledge that gumshoe has 7 health. They all come with the assumption that the vigi knows this. They all come with the assumption that any blue role that can damage someone MUST be stronger than all six lords combined.

Now, this is all post hoc reasoning. There's two main reasons I could see this come about: A) he has trouble seperating current knowledge from past knowledge, and lacks the ability to construct a proper narrative in his head. B) He knew about the health or had some thus far unexplained knowledge of KP values. That road leads to a likely SK or mafia.

He also never offers a reason why mafia would kill gumshoe aside from just him having 1 hp. Him having one hp is bullshit. Complete bullshit. If gumshoe survived the night we would have been forced to lynch him, or use a partial night's KP on him.

You'd have to assume very poor play from the mafia to have shot him. This looks very, very unlikely to be a mafia shot.

What about a serial killer? It's possible. They could have tried to hide their kill like he mentioned he had done in a different game, seems quite reasonable. It's worth being wary of a vigi claim in the future because of this.

What about an actual vigi? Also possible. Likely he's multishot with 4-5 kp, maybe even as low as 3. He would have claimed if he were single shot, or at least likely would have. It's also possible we have a JOAT, potentially even one weakened in some way, or a fun role.

Fun role being something like: Sacrifice x HP for 2x KP. Or even one for one. That would explain a vigi that attacked him knowing he was weak, it would allow him to kill more people.

Mafia killing gumshoe seems like the least likely to me, albeit that is somewhat subjective. But the fact that he goes on so long about the death (generally a sign that one is linked to the event), let's it dominate his focus down to only paying attention to people talking about the event around that time, and is using either post hoc reasoning OR has unexplained knowledge means it's quite possible he's mafia or SK.

What else incriminates him from this?

For starters, this big glaring hole in his logic.

There's four people in the house. Two are dead. Both were townies. So that means either Grackaroni or Xatalos are guarnateed scum according to him. But he's never commented about this or that it through. Why not? He's made a bunch of posts about the incident, but never thought about how it would be related to the two people in the house?

This makes me think that if he doesn't flip SK, that it is guaranteed one of Grack/Xatalos are scum because he didn't want to continue and incriminate one of his teammates. I don't see a townie thinking about this scenario, making 5 posts about it, having things play out as they have, and never revisiting his thoughts he fought so much about.

He comes close, mentioning Iamp's death and possible vigi/leak, but then doesn't apparently think about how that effects the remaining house. If he's 99% sure there's scum out of the two people left (his words) why not look into them more? Because he just wanted something to talk about before, he wasn't thinking critically about it, that's why he ignored so many situations.

Couple this with his jumping on my half-bandwagon that Risen tried to start, but then never realizing that even Risen thinks he was wrong. He hasn't shown any interest aside from saying "Sharrant is scum because of Risen's case". He hasn't looked at the responses, the analysis by other people, or even Risen's own current thoughts.

I'm less sure about Koshi being the SK, I'd bet on him being scum though. He's the only person aside from Vivax I would lynch, and I'm not longer which one I'm more confident about being scum. Most of this started from him being SK, so some of it is a little awkward, and I'd cut it out but I think it's useful showing the thought process. The important part is the logic hole and his reaction to the case on me.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:35 GMT
#3311
On August 16 2013 02:18 strongandbig wrote:
btw i was gonna be like "lynch dandelion instead of me because he's stopped giving a fuck and that's his scum meta".

He has 6 pages of filter day 1, followed by 2 per cycle after that. Steep dropoff in activity.

I still think that's a decent argument but it looks like the only scum games he's had since newbies where he didn't either replace in or replace out d1 were nuclear winter, where he did fit that pattern (only 2pp of filter per cycle, replaced out) and british empire, which was instant majority and so you can't compare filter lengths.

That said I only saw one town game of his where he played like this (red team, 5pp of filter d1, 1pp d2 then lynched). Other than that I went through bastard mini (6pp d1, 5pp d2 then game ended), themed game (9pp of filter d1, then 12pp between d2 and d3), and ptp4 (9pp d1, 7pp d2, then got dayvigged d3) all of which show a much smaller dropoff in activity than this game.

so he's matched this rule in 1/1 scum games that i looked at and only 1/4 town games, odds are pretty good here but it's not the slam-dunk numbers argument that i think it would be if his scum games had a larger sample size.

appreciate the effort but given that this game has silent nights, it shouldn't be a surprise that the numbers are slightly smaller.

themed also doesn't really count cuz I HAD to spam cuz of my role. As it got later I had to spam even more because less people were around to quote me.



Still dunno how I'm a lurker when I have 10 pages of filter in the first place. Just cause I'm busy on some days? lel
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:37 GMT
#3312
I don't think Koshi is SK.
scum definetly possible but I don't think sk.
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:37 GMT
#3313
sol might be sk tho
A backwards poet writes inverse.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
August 15 2013 18:42 GMT
#3314
On August 16 2013 03:37 Dandel Ion wrote:
sol might be sk tho


how shmoopy?
ATOBTTR
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 15 2013 18:43 GMT
#3315
Hmmmm. You do have an interesting theory about him being SK. It's lacking though for reasons you can't know.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
kushm4sta
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States8878 Posts
August 15 2013 18:44 GMT
#3316
On August 16 2013 03:27 Xatalos wrote:
Where is Kush? He disappeared as soon as the discussion moved on. Or is he working on some giant post? Otherwise, let's just kill him tonight #1 priority. johnnywup should be after that.


dat control f
dude im not here 24/7 reading the whole thread. Also listen to acro there are pretty good reasons why johhny is probably town. You are looking pretty scummy how anxious you are to autokill inactive players. Only thing that leads me to believe otherwise is your meta which I only know from 1 game really long ago.
OMGUS.net, kush sex blogs every friday night
Clarity_nl
Profile Joined November 2011
Netherlands6826 Posts
August 15 2013 18:44 GMT
#3317
##Summon Vivax
FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT AGAINST STUPIDITY CLARITY, I BELIEVE IN YOU! - Palmar
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:47 GMT
#3318
On August 16 2013 03:43 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmmm. You do have an interesting theory about him being SK. It's lacking though for reasons you can't know.

What if i tell you i know them?
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:48 GMT
#3319
oh wait there was a "lacking" in that sentence
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 15 2013 18:49 GMT
#3320
On August 16 2013 03:42 s0Lstice wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 16 2013 03:37 Dandel Ion wrote:
sol might be sk tho


how shmoopy?

hey how is your stance on the lord of a house yolo'ing anything lately?

still firmly against it i hear?
A backwards poet writes inverse.
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