EPTWait, that's not a sack of balls, that's a sack of potatoes!
GoT Mafia: Lords and Liars - Page 166
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
Wait, that's not a sack of balls, that's a sack of potatoes! | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:03 Clarity_nl wrote: I was arguing back at vivax that yamato was null in my eyes. Hell, oats was trying to convince me yamato was town during n1! I was one of the few people that had no clear opinion on yamato, and vivax tried to convince me he's scum. Why? A yamato lynch was nowhere near a certainty d2 without the redcheck. Scum could have easily tried to direct the lynch elsewhere. The only reason a scum vivax would do that is if sharrant was scum too and vivax knew the redcheck was going to happen, and I don't buy that. It's not a perfect explanation, I'm not saying vivax is completely town because of it, but it makes him townier than snb, and as I've said they can't both be scum. Why couldn't scum do this? I bussed fuba and stutters all game in Basterd Mini because I knew I wasn't putting them in real danger. How damaging is it to yamato for Vivax to make you go from null to scum on him? Not very. It only gets easier to rule it out as a scum on scum interaction if Vivax was here in thread pushing yamato's lynch with force when it was unpopular and seeing it through to the end, and even then you can never be sure Yamato was basically a good bus. If I was scum I'd have probably bussed the shit out of him towards the end of Day 1. I just don't see those PMs being conclusive either way. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:14 s0Lstice wrote: Why couldn't scum do this? I bussed fuba and stutters all game in Basterd Mini because I knew I wasn't putting them in real danger. How damaging is it to yamato for Vivax to make you go from null to scum on him? Not very. It only gets easier to rule it out as a scum on scum interaction if Vivax was here in thread pushing yamato's lynch with force when it was unpopular and seeing it through to the end, and even then you can never be sure Yamato was basically a good bus. If I was scum I'd have probably bussed the shit out of him towards the end of Day 1. I just don't see those PMs being conclusive either way. I think there was a small chance of yamato getting lynched pre redcheck. I think had vivax convinced me there would have been a much much bigger chance. See no reason to do it as scum, especially since only I would give him towniepoints for it and no one else. That said, this pm stuff snb pointed out looks pretty bad for vivax, maybe, let's see if he shows up. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
vivax is better lynch but not best johnnywup is best lynch | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
I think Vivax has a slightly higher chance of flipping scum than snb. I'm also glad to see snb giving reads. In fact, I'm happier with a Vivax lynch overall. Mostly gut feeling, partly iamperfection's stance, partly convenient short posting sprees and disappearances, partly him not being a useful asset to town (even though he should be). ##Vote Vivax | ||
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:17 Clarity_nl wrote: I think there was a small chance of yamato getting lynched pre redcheck. I think had vivax convinced me there would have been a much much bigger chance. See no reason to do it as scum, especially since only I would give him towniepoints for it and no one else. That said, this pm stuff snb pointed out looks pretty bad for vivax, maybe, let's see if he shows up. Yea I dunno, getting townie points with you seems fine and dandy for scum motivation. There was no guarantee you were gonna have vote power anytime soon right? | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
snb did a nice dissection of why his thread stuff looks scum, although the house list really isn't indicative of anything, it was asked for. So I guess I'd like to hear more from sharrant and acro first. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
there's been time enough to extend that thusly by now. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On August 12 2013 22:51 Koshi wrote: IT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY LOW AFTER ALL LORDS SHOT HIM? Ok maybe not 1 hp. But it wasn't going to be 15 HP. wtfff? Like how do you even refuse to see that this doesn't make sense? And of couse nobody in the thread is paying attention to me when I am actually finding scum............ Typical. This is the post that caught my attention and made me really analyze Koshi. In this post he talks about how stupid it would be for a vigi to shoot gumshoe, but his reasoning is almost entirely based on health values. (Note: Some of this may read awkwardly, but it's the information we have now. While we know Iamp is not the vigi, he potentially could have been at the time) Now, as far as I know, no other house aside from Iamp's had claimed the use of a health check. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). Iamp could not have shared that information with anyone outside of his house during the night phase (unless he's mafia, but he's not). So there's only 2 possible people that could be a vigi AND know the health value (Iamp and the two house members that aren't gumshoe). At best, our vigi can know of one shot actually being fired at gumshoe (from being a lord himself) or he may have no actual confirmation of any shots being fired, but think it was likely. Or he may think it was entirely WIFOM and they fired at their own targets/someone else etc. This is combined with the fact that our vigi would only be able to guess at someone's total health based off his shot value, and the lord KP value. Koshi's comments all assume that the vigi has knowledge that gumshoe has 7 health. They all come with the assumption that the vigi knows this. They all come with the assumption that any blue role that can damage someone MUST be stronger than all six lords combined. Now, this is all post hoc reasoning. There's two main reasons I could see this come about: A) he has trouble seperating current knowledge from past knowledge, and lacks the ability to construct a proper narrative in his head. B) He knew about the health or had some thus far unexplained knowledge of KP values. That road leads to a likely SK or mafia. He also never offers a reason why mafia would kill gumshoe aside from just him having 1 hp. Him having one hp is bullshit. Complete bullshit. If gumshoe survived the night we would have been forced to lynch him, or use a partial night's KP on him. You'd have to assume very poor play from the mafia to have shot him. This looks very, very unlikely to be a mafia shot. What about a serial killer? It's possible. They could have tried to hide their kill like he mentioned he had done in a different game, seems quite reasonable. It's worth being wary of a vigi claim in the future because of this. What about an actual vigi? Also possible. Likely he's multishot with 4-5 kp, maybe even as low as 3. He would have claimed if he were single shot, or at least likely would have. It's also possible we have a JOAT, potentially even one weakened in some way, or a fun role. Fun role being something like: Sacrifice x HP for 2x KP. Or even one for one. That would explain a vigi that attacked him knowing he was weak, it would allow him to kill more people. Mafia killing gumshoe seems like the least likely to me, albeit that is somewhat subjective. But the fact that he goes on so long about the death (generally a sign that one is linked to the event), let's it dominate his focus down to only paying attention to people talking about the event around that time, and is using either post hoc reasoning OR has unexplained knowledge means it's quite possible he's mafia or SK. What else incriminates him from this? For starters, this big glaring hole in his logic. There's four people in the house. Two are dead. Both were townies. So that means either Grackaroni or Xatalos are guarnateed scum according to him. But he's never commented about this or that it through. Why not? He's made a bunch of posts about the incident, but never thought about how it would be related to the two people in the house? This makes me think that if he doesn't flip SK, that it is guaranteed one of Grack/Xatalos are scum because he didn't want to continue and incriminate one of his teammates. I don't see a townie thinking about this scenario, making 5 posts about it, having things play out as they have, and never revisiting his thoughts he fought so much about. He comes close, mentioning Iamp's death and possible vigi/leak, but then doesn't apparently think about how that effects the remaining house. If he's 99% sure there's scum out of the two people left (his words) why not look into them more? Because he just wanted something to talk about before, he wasn't thinking critically about it, that's why he ignored so many situations. Couple this with his jumping on my half-bandwagon that Risen tried to start, but then never realizing that even Risen thinks he was wrong. He hasn't shown any interest aside from saying "Sharrant is scum because of Risen's case". He hasn't looked at the responses, the analysis by other people, or even Risen's own current thoughts. I'm less sure about Koshi being the SK, I'd bet on him being scum though. He's the only person aside from Vivax I would lynch, and I'm not longer which one I'm more confident about being scum. Most of this started from him being SK, so some of it is a little awkward, and I'd cut it out but I think it's useful showing the thought process. The important part is the logic hole and his reaction to the case on me. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On August 16 2013 02:18 strongandbig wrote: btw i was gonna be like "lynch dandelion instead of me because he's stopped giving a fuck and that's his scum meta". He has 6 pages of filter day 1, followed by 2 per cycle after that. Steep dropoff in activity. I still think that's a decent argument but it looks like the only scum games he's had since newbies where he didn't either replace in or replace out d1 were nuclear winter, where he did fit that pattern (only 2pp of filter per cycle, replaced out) and british empire, which was instant majority and so you can't compare filter lengths. That said I only saw one town game of his where he played like this (red team, 5pp of filter d1, 1pp d2 then lynched). Other than that I went through bastard mini (6pp d1, 5pp d2 then game ended), themed game (9pp of filter d1, then 12pp between d2 and d3), and ptp4 (9pp d1, 7pp d2, then got dayvigged d3) all of which show a much smaller dropoff in activity than this game. so he's matched this rule in 1/1 scum games that i looked at and only 1/4 town games, odds are pretty good here but it's not the slam-dunk numbers argument that i think it would be if his scum games had a larger sample size. appreciate the effort but given that this game has silent nights, it shouldn't be a surprise that the numbers are slightly smaller. themed also doesn't really count cuz I HAD to spam cuz of my role. As it got later I had to spam even more because less people were around to quote me. Still dunno how I'm a lurker when I have 10 pages of filter in the first place. Just cause I'm busy on some days? lel | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
scum definetly possible but I don't think sk. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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s0Lstice
United States1832 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:37 Dandel Ion wrote: sol might be sk tho how shmoopy? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9673 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:27 Xatalos wrote: Where is Kush? He disappeared as soon as the discussion moved on. Or is he working on some giant post? Otherwise, let's just kill him tonight #1 priority. johnnywup should be after that. dat control f dude im not here 24/7 reading the whole thread. Also listen to acro there are pretty good reasons why johhny is probably town. You are looking pretty scummy how anxious you are to autokill inactive players. Only thing that leads me to believe otherwise is your meta which I only know from 1 game really long ago. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On August 16 2013 03:43 Xatalos wrote: Hmmmm. You do have an interesting theory about him being SK. It's lacking though for reasons you can't know. What if i tell you i know them? | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
hey how is your stance on the lord of a house yolo'ing anything lately? still firmly against it i hear? | ||
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