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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIV - Page 8

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 15 2013 20:09 GMT
#1286
Okay, here's what I've got. I can't be here at deadline so I'm going to post it now.

Scum are in the group of Xzav, Rainbows, Nightcat, Gotard, Super. Everyone else is too town.


Koshi is town. He's posting too much and drawing too much attention to be mafia. I thought it was weird how he changed from "we should follow others" to a STRONG Super read, but if you look at his filter it feels very natural. He gradually moves and becomes more and more entrenched as time goes along, which is pretty town. Scum would be much more likely to just say "I think Super is scum" and then stay on his lynch and push it a little. There's no reason to do this and draw all that attention as scum when you could easily just artificially put a vote on Super.

There's also a little bit of "too mental to be mafia" with his self vote stunt. Martyring stuff like that isn't necessarily townie, but it would just be a REALLY bold move as mafia.

His pressure on me before and after the lynch, and his general actions after the lynch are townie. He's been hardcore pushing his read on me, and what he's saying makes sense from a town POV (for the most part). He's mostly tunneling me, which would be possible to fake as scum, but he's a central figure in the discussion now and it doesn't seem like scum at all.



Super still feels townieish to me. It's mostly a gut read, but his posting feels open and honest to me. He's given some reads at this point that feel natural to me. I don't think that scum would randomly start talking about the cop like he did. I also think that yesterday was town-town wagons because of the general amount of apathy and unjustified voting that went around.



Xzavier just hasn't done anything to make me feel that he's town. I hate that he gave a really long list of reads and didn't actually come to any conclusions on whether people were town or not, the entire purpose of a list of reads. The rest of his posting actually looks fine to me though. He's mostly here by process of elimination.



Rainbows' big problem is his apathy about the lynch. hz's already pointed it out, but it makes no sense from a town perspective. First, he posts this:
On July 15 2013 06:24 Rainbows wrote:
Okay so here's my thing.

Kirby is town. His list post and recent activity feels townie.

Super might be scum. Lynch him. But I think both might be town here.

If I'm right I believe Koshi/Gotard/plus one lurker are scumteam.

Id love to explain but again, working atm. Im trying to shoot off what im thinking as we go but it sucks i cant quote here. Will probably be voting super again later.

"Both might be town, but Super is scummier."

Then this:
On July 15 2013 07:32 Rainbows wrote:
I feel as if we should lynch both days 1 and 2.

This doesn't make sense with what he just said at all.

He then sheeps onto the Kirby wagon with no resistance at all. He doesn't even protest at all.

On July 16 2013 03:58 Rainbows wrote:
Hey guys.

By the end of Day 1 I thought both super and Kirby were probably town and wanted to lynch one because nobody wanted to lynch Gotard. Just because I think they might be town doesn't mean they shouldn't be lynched. I don't know their alignment, nor does any other townie. I'd have preferred to lynch somebody else but even with the Tribunal shit going down it didn't look like It'd happen.

So, I gave very little shits who was lynched. It's day 1. Tomorrow shit gets real.

If I were scum I'd know the alignments of both these guys and have a strong stance and just never really waver from it. Hz, I'm blatantly thinking about the game and trying to figure out who was town/scum. I thought Kirby was prolly town, yes, but i don't know he's town. Super was scummier objectively imo, but it seemed a lot like he just played 'follow the cop' a lot on epicmafia or something. I jumped around terribly. It doesn't mean I'm mafia -- it means I don't know wtf anyone is in this game.

It would have been hell of a lot less suspicious to just jump on either candidate (provided super is town as well) and just sit there.


It is possible that it comes from town, yes, but that doesn't remove the scumminess of it. If he thought that Kirby had a better chance of flipping town, I would expect ANY townie to give at least minimal resistance. No resistance was given at all.

Also, where on earth did this attitude go?
On July 13 2013 07:29 Rainbows wrote:
I demolished a game as scum and troll claimed cop and ppl still believed me. my first town game i called out scum d1 ezpz. Last game i had 2 of 3 scum on my list of 3, but nobody believed me.

thats my history.

He went from "calling out scum d1 ez" to "I gave very little shits who was lynched, it's day 1, I don't know wtf anyone is in this game" when he was pressured about it.



Gotard has already been talked about a lot. His problem is that he gives out WAY to many townreads and, more importantly, defends too many people.

For example, the Stim thing. He first posts this about Stim:

2) StiMaDDict - bad town. It would be too easy if he's mafia.


But then when I talk to him about it, here's what he says:
On July 13 2013 20:51 Gotard wrote:
Because it's obvious that he's mad that you think that he's mafia. I don't see any reasoning behind his posts except for being mad. Why would he write posts like that if he's mafia?

On July 13 2013 21:35 Gotard wrote:
But there was no reason for him to get mad if he's mafia.

On July 13 2013 22:41 Gotard wrote:
Yeah he looks bad or i should say useless for town. But you need to ask yourself "What would he gain with posts like that as mafia?". Bad town not mafia.

On July 13 2013 22:52 Gotard wrote:
So what he need to do to prove himself innocence? You are tunneling him too hard. You need to see the difference between someone being bad and scummy. I don't see any reason to rage like that if you are mafia.


Why didn't he mention any of this in his original post? Why is he so confident that Stim is town if his reason is that "It would be too easy if he's mafia"? This whole time, I was explaining why it would be beneficial for Stim to ragequit, be he was ADAMANT that Stim was town. He was extremely, unusually confident in this townread for no reason.

He also defended me and Umasi from Koshi a little for no reason. He then sheeped onto Kirby with a little justification, and then sailed through the lynch.

On July 16 2013 02:44 Gotard wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2013 07:46 Koshi wrote:
On July 15 2013 07:43 Chromatically wrote:
I would consolidate if it is literally the only way to avoid a no lynch.

THIS IS BULLSHIT


TOWN WE ARE GOING TO GET SO MUCH INFO WHEN WE LYNCH


THERE ARE ONLY 3 FUCKING SCUMS. A MISSLYNCH IS NOT BAD.




ARE YOU PEOPLE KIDDING ME? WE ALL AGREED THAT LYNCHING WAS GOOD. AND NOW CHROM WANTS TO PROTECT SUPER SO MADLY THAT A NO LYNHC IS OK?



WE AGREE THAT THEY BOTH LOOK SCUM. FUCK THIS

Getting mad after misreading. Emotional plays like that indicates bad town to me. Unless he wants to fake being mad after I defended Stim.

His case on Koshi called him "bad town" (...) instead of mafia, so why post it at all? Town is looking to find mafia. If he's going to case Koshi without actually thinking he's mafia, then he's just posting for the sake of posting - aka scum.



Nightcat is who I'd really like to lynch tomorrow. His posting is essentially all fluff. Look at this post for example:
On July 14 2013 07:30 Nightcat99 wrote:
Just want to give an update on my situation, I am quiet busy today but i will catch up on everything before the first day ends. Since I will be home on Sunday about 2 pm est as long as the plane doesn't screw me over again.

I would like to vote after I reread everything again that,s nt on my tiny phone screen but as far as stim's situation , I feel that he's either a bad mafia or a angry townie , so either way not worth a vote now because now everyone will put an watchful eye on him.

This is pretty much the only read he's given apart from just sheeping the wagons (and a random town read), but it says literally nothing at all. He comes in a while after Stim has stopped being a topic of discussion and gives his thoughts as "he's either town or mafia" (like everyone else thought at that time). And then doesn't vote him of course because no one else is.

He randomly votes Kirby with no explanation, saying he'll explain later, but then he switches onto Super with literally NO explanation at all.
On July 15 2013 07:54 Nightcat99 wrote:
hi guys i just got back home and i am reading through the filters for jrkiby and super, i might have mis judge jirkiby plus it seems like he wont get enough vote to be lynch, since i am a supporter of lynch one person a day i am going to jump on the super wagon for now but i will read through everything first and i will difently till the end of the voting period, so i will be able to read any message from now.

I also wanted to apoloygize for my absents, i really dont go on trips that often and from the one this game was looking, i wasnt expecting it to start before i come back, but i will be here everyday from now one and be much more active.

#unvote jrkirby
#vote: superfluous

He doesn't even say that one of the cases convinced him, it's just that "I might have misjudged Kirby" with no reasoning why. The votes were 5-4 at the time in favor of Super, so the "consolidation" reason is quite obviously made up.

He later sheeps the "tribunal" in switching back to Kirby, but offers no resistance at all. Despite wanting to lynch Super for unknown reasons, he doesn't try to convince anyone to vote him.

What really tipped me off to him was what he posted right before the night post came up. Sadly, it was edited out, but here's essentially what it said:

We should've lynched Kirby day 2 instead.

Why on EARTH wouldn't you post that BEFORE the deadline instead? If you honestly think that, you should try to get people to switch off of Kirby.

The way he posted it, however, the only explanation is that he's trying to distance himself from the lynch by showing that he wasn't really in support of it.

On July 15 2013 09:26 Nightcat99 wrote:
Superfluous (4): hzlank, Koshi, Xzavier, jrkirby
jrkirby (7): StiMaDDict, Chromatically, Gotard, Hurricane Sponge, umasi, Rainbows, nightcat99
Xzavier (1): Superfluous

first of all, theres got to be some scum that jump on the jrkirby wagon because he was super helpful and its a good move to have him removed. super's vote on xzavier made no sense that wouldn't change anything, stim's last mintue vote.. i dotn even know whos playing but if it was stim then that last minute post seemed a bit mroe townie then scum. i dont feel like hurricane and umasi is scum but gotard and chrom is someone we shall look at . and about the votes that stayed on super.

those are more likely to be townie then not.

If he was super helpful, why wouldn't you resist his lynch? Why wouldn't you talk about this before the lynch actually occured?

More importantly, he doesn't even have a reason why he was "super helpful" apart from the fact that he was "active". I don't know about you, but I don't consider people to be "super helpful" if they're active right before they get lynched. This just reads like more distancing: "Kirby was SUPER helpful, I didn't REALLY support his lynch".
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 15 2013 20:11 GMT
#1287
I won't be back at a computer until after deadline, so I can't write anything big.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 15 2013 21:18 GMT
#1302
Rainbows: You could've at least posted "we should be lynching Super" a few times or something. The whole "tribunal" was totally unsure and pretty much randomly decided, there was no reason not to at least try to move them.

But if not you, who do you think is the scummiest besides Gotard?

Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 15 2013 21:21 GMT
#1304
I still don't buy voting to ensure a lynch when the votes are 5-4. The lynch was totally in flux at that point.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:01 GMT
#1396
Did you not just post a case on Nightcat, Xzavier?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:30 GMT
#1411
I was roleblocked.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:38 GMT
#1417
So Xzavier:
On July 16 2013 10:00 Xzavier wrote:
well shit 2 of my 3 top scumreads just died, leaving 1 alone at the top:

sup super.

##VOTE SUPERFLUOUS

this will be removed once you start some LIGIT scumhunting none of that "vote for one guy, make a case on another guy" bullshits okay?

if i dont think youve done an adequate job/you look more scummy as the day goes on expect this to stay, and a case to be made along with it.

Rainbows, Koshi, and Super were your top 3 scumreads, even though you never explain your reads on Koshi or Rainbows.

Then what is this?
On July 16 2013 07:03 Xzavier wrote:
i remember asking people to check the Tribunal after it was just the three of them, what i mostly wanted to know was who tried to join them, nobody came out and directly said as such, but when the list of votes they controlled came out somebody knew was on the list:

Nightcat, a hardcore lurker at the time.

now he was not invited to join this team, i dont recall him asking to either, i just remember him following the wishes of it.(However indirectly as it may be) This blinks scummy on my scumdar.

Show nested quote +
On July 15 2013 08:19 Nightcat99 wrote:
can you make a case defending why you would not vote for JrKirby at this time?

Can you tell me why you think Superfluous is the better lynch target?


no i cannot make a case to not vote for jrkirby because i stated that i want to make sure to have 1 person lynch, when i came back it seem super was the more likely target but since you guys disagree.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE JRKIRBY


being given the option of switching his vote for a simple reason of "since you guys disagree" and not making a case or updating any reads is bad, because its a super easy for scum to hide without drawing any attention to himself. his entire reason for voting is "the person whos more likely to be lynched" thats a roundabout way of describing a scums voting pattern. they want to blend in and not stick out. So throwing his vote early and the person more likely to be lynched is a great way to lurk successfully.

My scumdar says Scum on nightcat right now

______
now im happy with how hurricane reacted to me saying keep your circle small and that further solidifies my stupidly massive town read on him(sponge) (scum would want to try to control as many votes as possible, they would already control the "holes" in there town circle) so the people saying that one of the three is scum, its not him: The points brought up against rainbow has totally shattered the confidence of my town read on him, his actions are nonsensical. I think that Usami is town still as he has played a far more pro-town game and has cut out almost all of his spam (from games iv previously played with him) while i know meta is bad to use for a case in newbie games, but i feel like a scum wouldnt try so hard to improve his town play as they would replicate it. This is another reason for my Umasi read after all of that.

if we are assuming scum tried to get one player onto the "tribunal" they were either succesful and got Rainbows on it, or used it as an excuse for nightcat to sheep his vote.

Are you expecting me to believe that you made a case on your FOURTH best scumread before making a case on ANY of the top three?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:42 GMT
#1420
Jailer def shouldn't claim.

You always claim RBs right after you get them because it helps solve the game (you can't trust claims at later points).

EX: One person is RBd each night, scum roleblocker is lynched ==> everyone roleblocked is practically confirmed town
EX: One person is RBd each night, on N3 no kill occurs and no one claims RB ==> jalier claims and lynches confirmed scum
EX: Two people are RBd each night ==> jailer can figure out who the scum RB is (what I did in XXXIII)
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:42 GMT
#1421
On July 16 2013 10:40 Xzavier wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 10:38 Chromatically wrote:
So Xzavier:
On July 16 2013 10:00 Xzavier wrote:
well shit 2 of my 3 top scumreads just died, leaving 1 alone at the top:

sup super.

##VOTE SUPERFLUOUS

this will be removed once you start some LIGIT scumhunting none of that "vote for one guy, make a case on another guy" bullshits okay?

if i dont think youve done an adequate job/you look more scummy as the day goes on expect this to stay, and a case to be made along with it.

Rainbows, Koshi, and Super were your top 3 scumreads, even though you never explain your reads on Koshi or Rainbows.

Then what is this?
On July 16 2013 07:03 Xzavier wrote:
i remember asking people to check the Tribunal after it was just the three of them, what i mostly wanted to know was who tried to join them, nobody came out and directly said as such, but when the list of votes they controlled came out somebody knew was on the list:

Nightcat, a hardcore lurker at the time.

now he was not invited to join this team, i dont recall him asking to either, i just remember him following the wishes of it.(However indirectly as it may be) This blinks scummy on my scumdar.

On July 15 2013 08:19 Nightcat99 wrote:
can you make a case defending why you would not vote for JrKirby at this time?

Can you tell me why you think Superfluous is the better lynch target?


no i cannot make a case to not vote for jrkirby because i stated that i want to make sure to have 1 person lynch, when i came back it seem super was the more likely target but since you guys disagree.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE JRKIRBY


being given the option of switching his vote for a simple reason of "since you guys disagree" and not making a case or updating any reads is bad, because its a super easy for scum to hide without drawing any attention to himself. his entire reason for voting is "the person whos more likely to be lynched" thats a roundabout way of describing a scums voting pattern. they want to blend in and not stick out. So throwing his vote early and the person more likely to be lynched is a great way to lurk successfully.

My scumdar says Scum on nightcat right now

______
now im happy with how hurricane reacted to me saying keep your circle small and that further solidifies my stupidly massive town read on him(sponge) (scum would want to try to control as many votes as possible, they would already control the "holes" in there town circle) so the people saying that one of the three is scum, its not him: The points brought up against rainbow has totally shattered the confidence of my town read on him, his actions are nonsensical. I think that Usami is town still as he has played a far more pro-town game and has cut out almost all of his spam (from games iv previously played with him) while i know meta is bad to use for a case in newbie games, but i feel like a scum wouldnt try so hard to improve his town play as they would replicate it. This is another reason for my Umasi read after all of that.

if we are assuming scum tried to get one player onto the "tribunal" they were either succesful and got Rainbows on it, or used it as an excuse for nightcat to sheep his vote.

Are you expecting me to believe that you made a case on your FOURTH best scumread before making a case on ANY of the top three?


How about i was BRINGING NEW INFORMATION to the table?

i saw somethign new, and i posted it because i dont think very many other people saw it. i dont think i ever said once in that that nightcat was my top scumread. just a scumread, i never actually put them in order, and that was my mistake

Why did you make a case on Nightcat before even mentioning Rainbows?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:46 GMT
#1425
Anyway, these NKs don't make any sense at all, they were two highly likely mislynches for today.

Scum + SK is Gotard+Nightcat+Xzavier with an outside chance of Super.

Everyone else is really town (yes, including Onegu and Alaka).
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:47 GMT
#1427
On July 16 2013 10:45 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 10:42 Chromatically wrote:
Jailer def shouldn't claim.

You always claim RBs right after you get them because it helps solve the game (you can't trust claims at later points).

EX: One person is RBd each night, scum roleblocker is lynched ==> everyone roleblocked is practically confirmed town
EX: One person is RBd each night, on N3 no kill occurs and no one claims RB ==> jalier claims and lynches confirmed scum
EX: Two people are RBd each night ==> jailer can figure out who the scum RB is (what I did in XXXIII)


No this one isnt true as this happened in my first newbie game and JK hit my NK target.

Oh that's true, you still have a group of 2 with one confirmed scum.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:49 GMT
#1429
On July 16 2013 10:47 Xzavier wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 10:46 Chromatically wrote:
Anyway, these NKs don't make any sense at all, they were two highly likely mislynches for today.

Scum + SK is Gotard+Nightcat+Xzavier with an outside chance of Super.

Everyone else is really town (yes, including Onegu and Alaka).


because logic?

Yes?

Do you disagree? Apparently your top 2 scumreads right now are Super and Nightcat.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:51 GMT
#1432
Hmm yeah actually the OP does say 3 scum.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 01:57 GMT
#1440
I would really like to hear from anyone who has scumreads on hz, Onegu, Umasi, Sponge, or Alaka. I have a hard time seeing any of them as scum.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:03 GMT
#1445
On July 16 2013 10:58 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 10:57 Chromatically wrote:
I would really like to hear from anyone who has scumreads on hz, Onegu, Umasi, Sponge, or Alaka. I have a hard time seeing any of them as scum.


You did not believe than Sponge slipped then?

No, not really. He's had a scumread on Koshi but not on Rainbows, so it makes sense for him to assume that scum killed Rainbows for him.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:13 GMT
#1447
On July 16 2013 10:59 hzflank wrote:
Also, if anyone has a good read on Alaka at this point then they are a genius. Cloud posted nothing during day one.

Alaka's whole "stream of consciousness" as he caught up in the thread is really town. His read on me in particular, fluctuates in ways that I think would be hard to emulate and unnecessary and scum. He first dislikes my case, then tunnels me for a little, then says I'm maybe town, then says I'm null, then starts to tunnel me again.. etc. I think that this would be difficult to fake as scum. He also calls me out on a "lie" which shows to me that he's scumhunting.

Also, he freely posts his thoughts as he reads the game, and they're not controlled or artificial. He's just being really crazy as usual.

I don't think scum would suggest something as outlandish as this:
On July 15 2013 11:46 Alakaslam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 15 2013 11:38 Umasi wrote:
guys, why is chrom scum aside from leading a mislynch.

Hahahahahaha

"Line em up!"

Don't defense just by parroting what he already said if you look like scum together, not only did you make my read on him stronger you added yourself to it. Look at the disagreement I had with him: at first I wanted to get the lynch off Kirby, then I learned Kirby was green and completely went nuts. However, before that? I was already saying (or maybe just thinking) stuff like "tunnel much? Stim doesn't have to be scum" etc


And the whole "Is it still day 1?" thing makes me lean town as well. If he's scum, he obviously would know whether it was day or night from the QT. This would be a really bizzare thing for mafia to think of faking, and not something I would expect Alaka to come up with and fake in the first ~5 minutes of replacing in.

Out of the 5, I think he's the most likely not to be town, but I don't think it's likely at all.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:14 GMT
#1449
On July 16 2013 11:13 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 10:58 hzflank wrote:
On July 16 2013 10:57 Chromatically wrote:
I would really like to hear from anyone who has scumreads on hz, Onegu, Umasi, Sponge, or Alaka. I have a hard time seeing any of them as scum.


You did not believe than Sponge slipped then?


I am scum on sponge.

Yeah, I look forward to hearing your case.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:32 GMT
#1459
Stim wasn't scummy looking, don't be silly.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:33 GMT
#1461
Xzavier, explain how your read on Rainbows changed from top 3 town to top 3 scum.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 16 2013 02:33 GMT
#1462
On July 16 2013 11:33 Xzavier wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 16 2013 11:32 Chromatically wrote:
Stim wasn't scummy looking, don't be silly.


stim never was never confirmed town either

TIL not confirmed town == scummy
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