EPT[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 9
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 13 2013 09:01 Ace wrote: Wasn't around back then. I saw Bureaucracy having a nuke and a fake nuke (kurumi/RoL) and MZ nuked me in a PYP. All of those launched in thread, although RoL's had the announcement and then didn't do anything.yes that post. It stuck out because austin hit the nails on the head very well: with the exception of multi-nukers he was correct on the other 3. The only other game with nukes that I know of on the forum are WaW games and I dont remember him being in those. But when I see "multiple types of nukes" I don't think regular/radiation/whatever else exists, I think normal/silent/multi, something like that | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 13 2013 09:05 Ace wrote: ok. what about Xatalos' last will post, and Vayne's accusation? Vayne's accusation is that I come in with an ON case to switch the lynch of DI or Chez. Far as that goes, it's just false. Found ON scummy. As far as xatalos: On July 13 2013 06:57 Xatalos wrote: austinmcc 1) Marvellosity once coached me and gave me valuable pointers on how to find scum. I just remembered one of them that fits austinmcc absolutely perfectly: "people happy to start a wagon but then fade into the background again". austinmcc has done that twice now. He made a case on ON, voted on him first and started fading into the background. Then he voted first on jampidampi (without really much of a case this time though) and started fading into the background (at least he made some reasonable posts this time around, maybe because I criticized him about the last time, but none of those had any impact really). 2) Completely apathetic attitude throughout D1 (and later on as well, only less obviously). 3) Main reason for saving DI/XigXag (scum) D1 with his case - "null" read on MajuGarzett and conveniently goes for jampidampi instead 4) Intentionally avoided talking about rayn's claim - "others were already talking about it" (would a town ever say this?) 5) Half-assed suspicions without really even calling the player scum/scummy (on Oatsmaster and FirmTofu) 6) Pumped me for reads at the end of N1 (I should have realized that it was probably used by him to decide if he should NK me or not... apparently I wasn't correct enough I guess). (1) Yup, I made a case on ON. DI had somewhat of a case on him, but really that was "DI isn't doing squat and that's more likely from mafia DI." Probably faded into the background some, partially due to RL but also the way the votes were jumping was making me question things. If I'd paid less attention to the votes and more attention to DI himself, I would have entirely dropped ON for that day, as DI's conduct closer to lynch time was what really sealed my read on him. As far as the jampi bit, I dunno what he was getting at EXACTLY. My vote started on DI. I was expected DI/XigXag to certainly be the lynch. He got nuked. I think I started the wave of late jampi voting, FirmTofu and Chezinu both on jampi earlier in the day, but I'm the first voter as far as the rush that got him lynched. As far as the "fading," ... it's not like there's a benchmark I can point to and say I didn't fade. I was scummy on him early in the day because of the filter jump after rayn's plan, happy to see him nuked, unhappy to see him defended. I felt like I spoke my mind, that anyone knew why I was voting jampi. (2) Mostly apathetic towards D1. Yes. Too many people, too many things that are flashes in the pan. AFAIK that's pretty usual for large game D1s for me. (3) Yeah, my case ended up saving DI. Don't like it. Can see it making me look scummy. IMO, if you look at N1 and early D1, I don't think it makes terrible sense for me, as scum, to derail a DI lynch and then want to lynch him. If I were going to bus him, I could have done it D1. Instead I pulled a lynch off him, then wanted to lynch him, which seems unnecessary if I'm looking to bus, and no reason to jump right back on him if I'm actually trying to save him. As far as maju and jampi, yup, I was scummier on jampi. If maju flips scum, I'll have had some bad reads this game. (4) Yes, a town would do that. He's lying, we don't know why, everyone else is already posting a ton about it. Try and figure out what's going on, be confused, figure being confused better than posting "I'm confused, here's why" when someone else has already laid it out. (5) Pretty sure that as things went on I called oats scum. FirmTofu was absolutely half-assed suspicions. Filter as a whole was townie, those two posts at the time of the DI lynch were super super scummy to me. (6) I asked him for reads. Not a scummy thing? If you start from "austin scum" then you can make it look scummy, but a whole lot of people have asked a whole lot of people for reads this game. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Anyone remember this from the start of D2? On July 13 2013 07:38 Stutters695 wrote: Ace your nuke is fake. Here's my real role PM. I changed it to only sometimes fake to try and get NK'd to stop it but I got a PM saying it got raided and destroyed so no need for that anymore. You are a Toy Store! You don't actually make real nukes but you're pretty good at making them look real. Once per cycle, you may choose a nuke type and a player. That player will be told he received a nuke of that kind. That was me. I raided VA N1 because he'd come up during the night as scummy and I agreed on that read, but figured he wouldn't be lynched for a bit. N2 I raided stutters, because of that first fake PM he gave. Here's what's important about this. We haven't seen a silent nuke today. If anyone else is also a war protestor and raided someone else, you need to speak up pronto. However, if nobody else raided someone, then we saw a silent nuke D1, silent nuke D2, and now nothing on D3. What changed in that time? I raided stutters and he could no longer make nukes. I don't know whether this ace nuke is real or fake or anything. I don't like that ace misspelled earlier, I didn't even notice it and figured since nothing went off he wasn't lying about the dud. Another missed chance to force someone to type something in thread and make sure they weren't planning something/lying. So, for realsies, if you're also a war protestor and raided someone last night, speak up. SOMEONE in this game is dropping silent nukes D1, D2, but not D3. Unless anyone else has a good reason, it's because I raided stutters's nuke factories last night. + Show Spoiler + Someone is going to say I'm mafia and lying and didn't raid stutters, or I'm the silent nuker and am holding my nuke today in an elaborate ploy to lynch stutters. However, he claimed to be raided. Unless anyone ELSE raided stutters, either I'm not lying about being a war protestor or BOTH of us are lying (I can't raid, he didn't get raided). In that case...stutters is lying and part of the plot, indicating that, even if you think I'm 100% mafia and lying about all this, stutters would be lying too | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 22:21 Koshi wrote: If we have a townie shooting silent nukes off, he picked odd targets. MZ was part of discussion D1 early, but is a very unlikely choice for a town nuke at the time he got nuked - chez had just recently nuked xatalos, there were a number of anti-chez posts, but nothing really in the way of anti-MZ posts. (Side note: The timing on the silent nukes is something I've minorly looked at, but not read too much into. stutters was NOT in thread at the time the MZ nuke notification went off, and hadn't been around for hours). Moreover, he chose not to launch one today in that case, despite there being a number of targets that people think are scummy and a couple lurkers that we don't know what to do with (besides nuke their faces).See. The difference between austinmcc and geript is that austinmcc makes logical conclusion and posts. I can't disagree with anything austin said, however I wouldn't lynch Stutters yet. There have been nukes every day except today, if that is a undercover town guy doing that, it doesn't make sense that some of the clear targets are not getting nuked or at least the inactives on D3. So 1) Scum is holding to their nuke today and not sending it. 2) It was Stutters who gave his nuke to Ace. and then it could be that Stutters loved to just nuke people on D1 and D2 and both are still town. But then I don't understand how Stutters doesn't believe he is not going to be lynched on D4 if this is a real nuke........ Scum holding their nuke doesn't make much sense to me. Essentially, that's scum passing up 1 KP on the target of their choice for the chance to trade a scumbuddy they think we'll lynch today for stutters. But they don't NEED to save the kp to try and push the lynch around, nor does it make sense that they'd pass up nuking a person of their choice for a lynch on stutters. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 22:45 Koshi wrote: Ace's nuke does make things weird. Assuming stutters is mafia, it makes it more likely that ace is also mafia, and that they're working something here but the raid may have thrown a kink in the works (stutters doesn't actually give out nukes, ace got a nuke from someone else/himself while stutters is the silent nuker?). But still, isn't it so that if the nuke now is fake that Stutters is not the guy doing this? We shouldn't lynch Stutters this day, because if it is fake he is still in the clear. The random nukes can also come from an inactive player. CA or Gumshoe. (this is insane speculation that maybe should be done after Stutters nuke falls on MG?) I don't think the silent nukes can come from a super inactive player. In the case of gumshoe, he was gone all D2. Unless he's mindfucking us incredibly hard by being absent all D2 AND not voting, risking modkill in order to launch his silent nuke while never being near thread, he's almost certainly not the silent nuker. CA possible, but CA popped in during D3, yet we've seen no silent nuke. So that possibility falls under the "why wouldn't a silent nuke have been sent if stutters is NOT the silent nuker?" umbrella. There is no simple/easy/sensible answer to that question for me. I'm still near-convinced that stutters is lying about his role PM. I cannot explain the lack of silent nuke today beyond stutters being the silent nuker. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 23:09 Onegu wrote: You believe stutters to be a lurker? You believe strongandbig to...not be lurking? We shouldnt be lynching lurkers at this point, it really should be austin, z-bosan, or S&b as they have much more scummy posts and actions than a lurker. Anyone not agree on z-bosan, he waffles so much haveing scum reads or votes on half the people in this game. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 23:20 Onegu wrote: Read my post. I'm not suggesting we lynch them.Takeing stutters out because I dont think he should be lynched yet. Was talking about you saying CA and gumshoe. Explain this bit about keeping stutters alive and killing me/z-boson/snb. I can understand that mindset earlier, but we have not seen a silent nuke today and I've claimed to have raided stutters, he's claimed to have been raided. You want to wait on stutters to see if ace's nuke goes off. But you're okay lynching me? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 23:31 Onegu wrote: Yes, it is possible. However, in that case, you need to account for the lack of silent nuke today.At this point yes, first there is no way to confirm your claim. Second it is possible he is town and you are scum and can shut down factories, so seeing if the nuke lands gives us more info. In the world where I am scum and stutters is town, you need to believe his claim, think I'm a scum war protestor, AND think that the silent nuke is being held...solely to get a lynch on stutters? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 14 2013 23:37 Onegu wrote: The first is possible, although it feels unlikely given their targets and not launching both D1 (specifically, why does scum nuke Ace on D2 with their last silent nuke?).You are trying to read into a closed set up, maybe a total of 2 scum got 1 silent nuke each, or 1 scum got only 2 silent nukes. Or its 3p lauching silent nukes there is no way to know. The second is possible, although the same question applies. Why Ace with your second, and final, nuke? If it's 3P launching silent nukes, then ... that doesn't get around the issue. Why no nuke today? If a 3P is launching silent nukes, and stutters was the only person raided last night (again, anyone who raided someone last night, please say so because it affects this), then that indicates that stutters is 3P who has been launching nukes at townies. Makes him a worse lynch today, because he's effectively neutered, but then I don't think we can explain him having silent nukes AND giving a nuke, real or fake, to ace. Yes, I'm trying to make sense of a closed setup. Yes, there are limits to our ability to do that. But that doesn't mean we can't throw out options that don't make any sense. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 00:01 Koshi wrote: Short answer is...I feel more certain. austin. I dont understand why Stutters today. Why not on D4 if the nuke is a real one? Is it lack of other targets? Because I think that CA, Chezinu, gumshoe is a better target than stutters. Chezinu because I don't get the guy but it seems you guys know wtf he is doing, but to me he is afk. Up until just recently, stutters was lurking as hard as any of those players, if not harder. Right up til last night. CA constantly posting that he's drunk/will have time later doesn't seem lovely. gumshoe's massive absences don't read lovely. Chezinu's absence and the fact that I do believe one of the more veteran players should be scum in this game don't read lovely. But with stutters, I both don't trust that second claim (choosing your type of nuke without mention of nuke types, wording, being a location rather than a person) AND there was no silent nuke D3. I read those things as more scummy than the scummy attributes of the other lurkers. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 01:27 Onegu wrote: ? If someone claims to have shut down a nuke maker, that should make you want to lynch me MORE. If nobody else claims to have shut down stutters, then my claim is true OR both stutters and I are lying for little to no reason. We really need to agree on a lynch. I disagree with everything geript has done and suggested, but it seems almost to obvious for him to be scum. Are ninja votes a scumtell? I really prefer a austin lynch, with everything xata posted, plus I dont like his claim or his defense as there is no way we can or should read things into a closed setup. Unless someone claims to have shutdown a nuke maker, he should be the target since I cant get anyone on z-bosan. Vote: Austin Furthermore, there isn't "no way" to read things into a closed setup. Things have happened. We can interpret those things. Essentially you're ignoring that there's been a silent nuke D1 and D2, but not D3. You're saying that conflicts with your read, so ... closed setup, must be lying, gg. But you're trusting that ace actually has a nuke, trusting that we have missile defense systems, and all sorts of other stuff. The setup as a whole is closed. That doesn't mean everyone is lying about everything, and it means we just have to intuit as much as we CAN. Again, MAYBE someone is holding a silent nuke, MAYBE there were only 2 silent nukes. But neither of those makes more sense, at least to me, and hopefully not to you, than stutters being the launcher of silent nukes. If one of the other explanations makes MORE sense to you, then by all means, let's chat about it. But if no other scenario makes more sense, don't just hide behind "closed setup." Whether open or closed, there IS a setup. It's up to you to figure out what you think it's most likely to be. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 01:51 Ace wrote: I was waiting to see if a silent nuke got launched today. Possibility of that ended 7ish hours ago.Deadline should have passed, so Stutters was telling the truth. Austin also confessed to raiding him so he was telling the truth about that too. austin why did you wait this long to tell the truth about targeting Stutters? You read the interaction between me and him when we were both confused about why the nuke never went off. You could have said something right? The early confusion was you hearing that stutters's factory got raided, and so thinking your nuke had been destroyed. But seeing as you appear to have still had a nuke...I figured you could sort that one out. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 01:51 strongandbig wrote: Neither one looks like a true one, tbh. That whole choosing the type of nuke with NO information about types of nukes does not make sense.I'm down to lynch geript for using his defense on jampi, but I'd rather lynch Austin. I don't understand why stutters would have given ace the nuke, then told us it was fake, if it was actually real and stutters is scum. That whole concept just doesn't really compute for me, what action would he have been trying to induce by the lie. If people really think Maju is scum then I don't think it makes sense to let the nuke land "just in case" stutters was lying and it's real. If you think Maju is scum, lynch him. Then lynch stutters if you think him lying about his role is a scum tell. But we know he lied about his role at least once, how does it make a difference if he lied a second time and the first time was actually the true one. I see reason concerning stutters and ace and stutters's alignment. I don't see any reasoning concerning why I'm doing what I'm doing if I'm town/scum, nor do I see anything about no silent nuke. Why do you think there is no silent nuke today? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 01:55 Ace wrote: If a silent nuke gets launched, then it doesn't implicate him. Then I just fight the lynch if it's on me, and keep looking elsewhere. I did sort it out  I was saying why you didn't just fess up, but if you think Stutters was silent nuking then sure. If a silent nuke did get launched how would that have incriminated him though? Like what was your plan of action? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 01:59 Ace wrote: Yeah. Actually checking on one thing that could throw this off, but depending on how that answer comes back, yes, I think he was the launcher of the silent nukes.since a nuke didn't get launched, and you raided him - then you feel he is still possibly the launcher of silent nukes then. Correct? If nobody else raided anyone else, then I know that we saw silent nukes and now haven't. I know that only one nuke factory got shut down last night. Likely conclusion is that dude who got shut down was the one making silent nukes. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Raided VA N1. So the silent nukes implicate him, not stutters. Stutters role PM still looks fake, but the silent nukes line up with a raid being successful on VA. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On July 15 2013 02:21 VayneAuthority wrote: I raided you N1, stutters N2.I don't follow, how does raiding me implicate that I fired a nuke? Especially when I cannot given my claim? I have no powers. would I receive a notification that I was raided? We saw silent nukes D1, D2, nothing D3. IF a raid shut down silent nukes, it would be the raid on you, because a factory still produces a nuke on the night that it's raided. Therefore, if stutters produced silent nukes each cycle/night, he would have one today, as he was only raided last night. If you produced silent nukes, you would have had one yesterday, the one made during D1/N1, but not one today. | ||
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