EPTLooking at the thread from this point of view is interesting. It gives me several strong town reads and identifies a cluster of people which I believe contains scum. At least one of the people who voted for Xz is scum, and I am not comfortable that as soon as he flipped green people started a case on Onegu. To be fair the case almost swayed me at first, but after consideration I still have Onegu as town.
Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 4
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hzflank
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Looking at the thread from this point of view is interesting. It gives me several strong town reads and identifies a cluster of people which I believe contains scum. At least one of the people who voted for Xz is scum, and I am not comfortable that as soon as he flipped green people started a case on Onegu. To be fair the case almost swayed me at first, but after consideration I still have Onegu as town. | ||
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While I was really really bad town with many mistakes, Aqua's opening about the policy stuff added fuel to my fire. Not only did it get my attention but it got the attention of several other people who thought Aqua is/was scum. If Aqua is town then that was a mistake. (I am not criticizing, I am trying to learn here). Without the day 1 policy stuff, there is not a strong enough case on Aqua. His vote on Xz was one of the null reads, since there was a wagon on Aqua he was going to vote on the other wagon regardless. The fact that Aqua was the other wagon is not indicative of scum because my bad play gave the scum an easy way to let us vote on two town wagons. I don't think that Onegu's above case on Aqua is strong enough at the moment. There are some minor points there, but we have better information at our disposal now. | ||
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It's more interesting, but I have only read it once so far. I am doing some more analysis now and will read it again shortly. Trying to make up for my day 1 blunders  Really though, if you have time read page 18 from when I vote for Aqua through to the end of page 19, then read the bit where Tofu votes for Xz also. That is a goldmine information if we can get our heads around it. | ||
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I noticed the bully also. Whether this is town or scum depends on who he votes for. If he is planning to vote for you (Onegu) then this is a scummy thing to do. On the other hand, it may of been a trap he was laying for Alakaslam. We dont know because Alakaslam dodged it. I have also noticed him tunneling Spicy. After the flip I got a 'good town' read on Spicy. To clarify that, I have little reason to see Spicy as scummy at the moment and if Spicy is town then I think he has played a good game and been the most useful of us all. However, I was planning do some analysis of Spicy tomorrow to try to get a stronger read on him. Your case is reasonable, but I am not willing to put my vote behind it because it contains nothing about the voting and the flip. I do not think we should ignore the voting from day 1. | ||
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Chromatically votes on Xzavier, who already had one vote from LoneMeow. Aqua and Chrom talk about reads and agree on a scum read on Xzavier. Xzavier votes on Aqua, then Aqua returns the favour. Lets break this down: LoneMeow's vote on Xzavier was not a scummy vote. If anything it was a tunnel vote, since Xzavier was his scum read all along. This was early in the day, there was no need to vote to help anyone. If LoneMeow is scum then this is clever setup incase the other scum need to jump on later. Lone was not around at the deadline, so if this was scum setup then they were always going to be stuck on Xzavier. There is no evidence that this is setup by a scum LoneMeow, though. Next there is some back and forth where Chromatically seems to be looking for consensus from Aqua and Tofu. Chromatically and Aqua both agree that Xzavier is one of theu top two targets (each have a different secondary target). Tofu does not post again for a while so I am going to assume that he is still firmly set on Spicy as his vote target. Aqua makes a mention of a town/null read on LoneMeow. Xzavier votes on Aqua. Aqua votes on Xzavier. I would of done the same in Aqua's position, but then so would a scum. I think that this part of the voting looks bad on Chromatically. Due to my earlier tactical mistakes, I had left an opportunity where Chromatically can guarantee two votes (LeonMeow and Aqua) on Xzavier. If Chromatically were scum, he could also get votes (probably 2 more) from the other scum if needed. And if Xzavier flips town then he is not obviously implicated. In addition, my case on Aqua was weak and I lacked conviction and there were other people jumping on Aqua's policy stuff, so it was not even guaranteed that he would need to get all of the other scum on the wagon. This is not a case on Chrom and if it were he can easily defend it, however Chrom is far from confirmed town in my mind. I hope this is a good example of how badly I fucked up on day 1 and have clever scum ways to lynch town without implicating themselves. I will add more on the later stages of the voting when I can (unless people think this is crap and dont want to read it). | ||
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On June 26 2013 23:59 Spicydinosaur wrote: Any talk of D2 lynches is dangerous as scum can easily redirect night actions. Posting cases and thoughts are fine, but anything that resembles "as soon as d2 post is up my vote is on x" should be avoided. That was what I thought. However, there was talk of day 2 lynches within an hour of the flip. Someone has already even tried to vote! | ||
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On June 26 2013 06:36 Chromatically wrote: It helps that I have a town read on everyone on the Xzav wagon, so I really don't think that scum is pushing this wagon at all. I'd be surprised if there are no scum at all on a town wagon. Before the flip you suspected Onegu for the reasoning behind his voting. While the flip does not change his reasoning, I expected it to cause you to reconsider more. Although Meow was the first to vote for Xzavier, with the way it happened I consider you to be the starter of the Xzavier wagon. Therefore, your insight into the votes that your wagon gathered will be very useful. There is no rush, we have 48 hours, but I was just surprised that you started with Onegu and Spicy. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:00 Hurricane Sponge wrote: This can be explained as a difference of playstyle. You have been recently accused of not doing everything in your power to save Xzavier from lynch when you thought he was town. Tofu is demonstrating what he's willing to do to save someone he thinks is Town from a lynch. Tofu was one of the people on the wagon. Go back and read how the votes went down. Look at exactly who voted when and the reasons given. If Tofu is town then at least one other person on that wagon is scum. Why is Tofu wasting so much time on people who were not on the wagon? | ||
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On June 26 2013 08:26 FirmTofu wrote: There was a counter play! The scum saw that you had already started a vote on Aqua and used that as an opportunity to draw attention away from Xzavier. While I strongly believe you are town because you were the one to start the lynch with some pretty good analysis, I do not believe that the other people pursuing the Aqua wagon are free from blame. The fact that they jumped on Aqua right after Xzavier's bandwagon was gaining momentum is indicative of this fact. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:16 Chromatically wrote: I don't know where you're going with these. Not caring about the lynch looks bad no matter what the flip is, that's what I said before the flip. Now that we know both wagons were likely town, there is clear scum motivation to not vote for either. I've stated my reasoning about why Aqua and Spicy look bad, do you disagree? Did anyone actually care about the lynch? Sure, you and Tofo pushed hard to get people onboard when it was tight between Xz and Aqua but as soon as Xz was highly likely to be lynched everyone stopped caring. People who were not on the wagon jumped on. People who were on the wagon discussed moving there vote. Not to mention that we currently have a better chance working out which passenger was scum than we do of working out which non-passenger was scum. Your case on Onegu is severely hampered by all the other talk about Onegu being scummy. If you were scum, which you very well might be, then the obvious move was to pressure Onegu once Xz flipped green. There was loads of preparation done for this move pre-flip, when most of us did not even know that xZ would flip green. | ||
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The best way for the town to get a correct read on which of you is scum (if any) is if you look for guilt in each other. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:43 Chromatically wrote: Why don't you explain how the flip made each of us look bad? Why don't you do some scum hunting? | ||
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I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it. I wont be on until the end of the night now. | ||
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