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On June 23 2013 14:52 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2013 14:50 Hapahauli wrote:
Anyway, it looks like I've gotten everything out of Oats that I will for a while.
I'm not as sure that he's scum anymore. He's responding fairly quickly and not showing very much guilt while doing so. While his answers are incoherent and unprepared, they do make sense provided that he was calling me scum in order to "poke" me and see how I'd react.
I still find him "poking" somewhat uncharacteristic for his town-game (he's usually much more direct/forceful with his reads), but I'll need to sleep on it and see what his actual reads end up being before I make a final judgement call. Have you ever stopped to consider that it's really easy for scum Oats to complain and bitch like a townie when the pressure has been on him? There's no way to can say that him acting like that can erase the fact that his filter is all talk and no real scumhunting.
Perhaps. That doesn't change the fact that there is one possible legitimate reason for his line of responses.
And Oats and I basically had a 40-post back and forth. That's not real easy for scum to do. Certainly possible, but not very easy.
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Anyway I'mma going to head to bed a bit earlier this time around.
Looking forward to seeing
1) Rayn's thoughts on myself and Oats
2) Oats/GK's scumreads
3) Moar redflips
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On June 23 2013 14:57 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2013 14:54 Hapahauli wrote:On June 23 2013 14:52 cDgCorazon wrote:On June 23 2013 14:50 Hapahauli wrote:
Anyway, it looks like I've gotten everything out of Oats that I will for a while.
I'm not as sure that he's scum anymore. He's responding fairly quickly and not showing very much guilt while doing so. While his answers are incoherent and unprepared, they do make sense provided that he was calling me scum in order to "poke" me and see how I'd react.
I still find him "poking" somewhat uncharacteristic for his town-game (he's usually much more direct/forceful with his reads), but I'll need to sleep on it and see what his actual reads end up being before I make a final judgement call. Have you ever stopped to consider that it's really easy for scum Oats to complain and bitch like a townie when the pressure has been on him? There's no way to can say that him acting like that can erase the fact that his filter is all talk and no real scumhunting. Perhaps. That doesn't change the fact that there is one possible legitimate reason for his line of responses. And Oats and I basically had a 40-post back and forth. That's not real easy for scum to do. Certainly possible, but not very easy. I would agree with you if Oats' posts were on the same level of depth as yours. However, you were being very calm and giving reasons for your suspicions and he would just respond with one-liners and saying that you are wrong because he is town. The parity of the "intelligence" of the conversation was heavily swung in your favor. I think it's more non-alignment indicative because both frustrated scum and town can act like that.
That's fair.
To clarify though, it's not so much that I'm convinced he's town, but that he's given me some reason to doubt that he's scum. Ultimately I'll decide to lynch him or not based on the substance he is going to provide.
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On June 23 2013 20:20 Ange777 wrote:... Show nested quote +On June 23 2013 08:58 Hapahauli wrote:
Coag, at a certain point, if you want to call marv scum, do so sanely and constructively. Because the whole
foaming at the mouth "marv is scum trolololololol" doesn't really cut it for me, nor for the rest of the people here.
I also still don't understand the giant gap in analysis that you have regarding the DP vote - your analysis and thought process is literally only valid if GK isn't mafia. I am not sure what exactly you are refering to in your question.
I'm not really asking a question here. More telling Coag to give reasons for marv=scum, and identifying that the whole "if you didn't vote for DP, you're suspicious" isn't as straightforward since we don't know GK's alignment.
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@ Marv
Can you explain your reads on sloOsh (seemingly null) and Coag (strong town) respectively?
I have sloOsh at very strong town given how much sense he's making. Also regardless of GK's allignment, he was the hammer vote on the Godfather, which makes me incredibly skeptical of any sort of suspicion on him.
As for Coag, I'm not sure what his behavioral tells are, but his vote on DP actually isn't that important. It wasn't made in the last minute scramble, and almost seemed like a throwaway vote made in the middle of D1 when DP had virtually no chance of getting lynched.
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@ sloOsh
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417453¤tpage=67#1329
Regarding my "general aversion" to voting DP:
My attitude is what it is, and I really have nothing to defend in that regard. I always have a general aversion to lynching active players on Day 1, and I almost always try to lynch into lurkers unless there is really compelling evidence otherwise.
Also, keep in mind that during most of those quotes, Yamato was talking to me about lynching DP based on what was essentially "Secret Vote" WIFOM. The reasoning didn't resonate with me at all and was making me fairly skeptical of voting DP as a whole.
Notably this...
Again, taking a generous view of DP, and another shoddy reason for it. Earlier he said he doesn't like assuming it's a mafia ability. Yet he cites the secret vote as a reason to lynch into the lurkers.
... is a big misrepresentation of what I was saying. I was more stating my objections to Yamato's rationale (who was convinced that DP was responsible for the secret vote) and trying to argue on his terms.
If you look through my filter and my game history, obviously I have more rationale behind lurker-lynching than a silly Secret Vote. It's something I heavily trend to in all of my town-games because I find it a very effective means of catching mafia on Day 1 with a low-risk attached.
Regarding Rayn:
On June 24 2013 01:41 slOosh wrote:
Eh I gtg for now, but I want to again draw attention to pg 57~60, with regards to the Hapa / rayn interaction. I think Hapa did not engage the discussion honestly but misrepresented rayn's case on him. I'll be back later with more fleshed out description but I hope you guys can start it without me.
Particularly people like goodkarma, ShiaoPi, cora and Adam, this new stuff a good place to make contributions.
I think I'm being perfectly fair to rayn. Maybe not diplomatic, but fair.
I'm more than willing to defend myself when someone approaches me with well-informed and rational suspicion. However in the case of rayn, he is a player that's locked on into two completely irrelevant parts of my filter and calling me scum for it.
On top of that, when I see shit like this...
On June 24 2013 01:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I have a terrible hangover so i am not going to try to have more of a headache today by rereading.
I am still suspicious of Hapa. I don't think anyone who voted for DP is scum unless GK is scum too, but i find it kinda hard to believe there would be only 2 scum wagons at the end of the day. That does not just sit well with me, especially considering my scumreads are not lurkers. I still think Oats is town for what i have said and i don't like how Hapa was (and apparently is?) unable to understand my read on him. I have no idea why he thought Oats was mafia last night.
...
... it pisses me off a great deal. I'm strictly not going to afford the respect to someone who's not going to re-read the damn thread. That's not a signal of a hangover, that's the signal of confirmation-bias up the ass, and I'd much rather spend my time finding mafia than wasting my time talking to someone who's not going to listen.
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@ GoodKarma
Regarding Cora
There are a lot of things I could say about his play, but wishy-washy isn't one of them.
Also his reasoning for voting you was pretty much "I think DP is super-town, I will vote anyone except for him"(...which isn't any better, but it isn't what you represent it to be ("lololol there are 5 lurkers let's go and kill GK").
Regarding Shaio
One of the reasons that I'm skeptical of your push is along the lines of what Ange said a couple of pages back:
On June 23 2013 20:34 Ange777 wrote:
To be honest I really don't see scum ShiaoPi right now. Yes, his inactivity is troubling but in I Swear he showed that he can actually play scum differently. Reverting back to his absolutely lurking scum meta from the past just simply does not make any sense for me.
From last game, we know the guy is capable of playing an active and engaged scumgame. So why revert to this passive/lurky play? Also, are you sure this passive play of his is exclusive to his scum-games as opposed to his town-games?
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@ Cora
I will say that GK has a really good point about your "read" on Ange.
Finally there's his last set of reads, which clearly make no sense from a town perspective. I simply can't visualize a townie making the Ange read in particular, given her contributions to getting scum lynched on DAY 1. All in all, this is a guy with a lot of activity who hasn't had a whole lot of stances on who's scum. He's content to suspect lurkers and be pretty wishy-washy on everyone else. Ange in particular he's gone from "possibly Ange" to "probably not Ange let's not consider lynching her even though I think she's scummy" in very short order when pressured about it. Like what kind of townie does that??? The Oats read I could possibly see a townie making, but everything else just doesn't make sense at all to me from a town perspective.
Why would you be suspicious of the person who was the driving force behind the Godfather lynch? And even if you are suspicious, your quotes on her don't come across as very natural...
Perhaps Ange, as it would be really easy for scum to cast doubt on me and push for my lynch D2. That got me really suspicious.
So you mention that you're "really suspicious" of her right here, but then when someone confronts you about it, you immediately back down to a very non-committal stance:
I'm not say Ange is 100% scum and that we should try to lynch her. I'm not even saying Ange looks very scummy and we should thing about lynching her. I'm just saying that it makes me a bit suspicious.
And now it's a "bit suspicious".
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On June 24 2013 05:01 ShiaoPi wrote:
hai guys
just got home from partying 2 nights in a row. what did i miss? ~.~
also any questions while I try to catch up before I fall dead into my bed??
just saying that i am still around but probablu wont be able to post sth more cohernt until like tmr noon when I wake up again. so just ask me stuff you need to onow like right now, wikl do more tmr in a better mental state
It doesn't sound like you're in any shape to do anything right now. And I doubt you'll be killed tonight anyway. Go to bed, catch up tomorrow, and we expect a lot from you.
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On June 24 2013 05:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hapa, let's talk about something else than D1 for a change. You said a lot about solving this game revolves around flipping GK, and if he flipped town you would then look into ShiaoPi and Adam. I can get the ShiaoPi part, but why Adam? And do you actually think GK is mafia or what were you trying to say there? That we should lynch him to have more information on ShiaoPi/Adam? That doesn't really sound like a reason to lynch someone.
I was more throwing names out there, and not necessarily concrete examples.
For example if GK is mafia, there's an overwhelming chance that the mafia was fairly lurky and passive. Thus the candidates to look into would be very passive players who hadn't had much influence in the game. So Shiao/Adam fit that bill somewhat, though it's not a complete list by any means - after all, why speculate about specifics until I actually know more about GK?
Ermmmm sorry I butchered that a bit and forgot my argument a bit.
If GK is town, mafia would probably be a passive influence on the GK wagon (players like Adam, Shaio, and maybe marv).
If GK is mafia, players on the GK wagon look much better, and it's worth to look into players either avoiding both wagons all together OR those that were extremely passive (also now that I think about it, would probably include Adam and Shaio as well).
Regarding Adam and Shaio specificly, I do have reasons to doubt they're mafia. Adam has come across as fairly genuine so far (even with his limited posting). Generally when he's posting as mafia, he just comes across as sounding terrible, illogical, and desperate. I don't get that feeling this game.
As for Shiao, I posted my thoughts (directed at GK) just above. Given his mafia performance last game, it doesn't make very much sense for him to slink back into this lurky/wishy-washy game if he rolled mafia again. His wishy-washyness is a null-tell at best I think, and perhaps even a town tell.
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EBWOP
On June 24 2013 05:11 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 05:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hapa, let's talk about something else than D1 for a change. You said a lot about solving this game revolves around flipping GK, and if he flipped town you would then look into ShiaoPi and Adam. I can get the ShiaoPi part, but why Adam? And do you actually think GK is mafia or what were you trying to say there? That we should lynch him to have more information on ShiaoPi/Adam? That doesn't really sound like a reason to lynch someone. I was more throwing names out there, and not necessarily concrete examples. For example if GK is mafia, there's an overwhelming chance that the mafia was fairly lurky and passive. Thus the candidates to look into would be very passive players who hadn't had much influence in the game. So Shiao/Adam fit that bill somewhat, though it's not a complete list by any means - after all, why speculate about specifics until I actually know more about GK?
Ermmmm sorry I butchered that a bit and forgot my argument a bit.If GK is town, mafia would probably be a passive influence on the GK wagon (players like Adam, Shaio, and maybe marv). If GK is mafia, players on the GK wagon look much better, and it's worth to look into players either avoiding both wagons all together OR those that were extremely passive (also now that I think about it, would probably include Adam and Shaio as well).
Regarding Adam and Shaio specificly, I do have reasons to doubt they're mafia. Adam has come across as fairly genuine so far (even with his limited posting). Generally when he's posting as mafia, he just comes across as sounding terrible, illogical, and desperate. I don't get that feeling this game. As for Shiao, I posted my thoughts (directed at GK) just above. Given his mafia performance last game, it doesn't make very much sense for him to slink back into this lurky/wishy-washy game if he rolled mafia again. His wishy-washyness is a null-tell at best I think, and perhaps even a town tell.
Oh what the shit this came across as really wierd.
Ignore the part that I striked above. I thought I posted it for some reason, but it turns out I didn't and I confused myself.
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On June 24 2013 05:16 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 04:59 Hapahauli wrote:@ CoraI will say that GK has a really good point about your "read" on Ange. Finally there's his last set of reads, which clearly make no sense from a town perspective. I simply can't visualize a townie making the Ange read in particular, given her contributions to getting scum lynched on DAY 1. All in all, this is a guy with a lot of activity who hasn't had a whole lot of stances on who's scum. He's content to suspect lurkers and be pretty wishy-washy on everyone else. Ange in particular he's gone from "possibly Ange" to "probably not Ange let's not consider lynching her even though I think she's scummy" in very short order when pressured about it. Like what kind of townie does that??? The Oats read I could possibly see a townie making, but everything else just doesn't make sense at all to me from a town perspective. Why would you be suspicious of the person who was the driving force behind the Godfather lynch? And even if you are suspicious, your quotes on her don't come across as very natural... Perhaps Ange, as it would be really easy for scum to cast doubt on me and push for my lynch D2. That got me really suspicious. So you mention that you're "really suspicious" of her right here, but then when someone confronts you about it, you immediately back down to a very non-committal stance: I'm not say Ange is 100% scum and that we should try to lynch her. I'm not even saying Ange looks very scummy and we should thing about lynching her. I'm just saying that it makes me a bit suspicious. And now it's a "bit suspicious". Perhaps I used the wrong wording in how suspicious of Ange I was. Her sub-par D1 play was only revived by the fact that she voted for DP at just the right time. Then she goes on about how I look bad for voting DP which is so ridiculously obvious. I'm still feeling on edge after the DP vote because I thought I was going to be a prime lynch candidate because of it. I considered (and still do, but to a lesser degree) myself to be lynch bait and when she mentioned my name I saw her possibly as scum jumping on the lynchbait. She shouldn't be hailed as an angel just because she voted for DP. Everyone still has to do their part in the town.
RE the bolded - she kinda is though in this situation.
Not only did she vote DP, but the circumstances she did it under make the vote more compelling (and townie). For example, she came back into the thread at the last minute, quickly read it, and then immediately voted DP and pushed the lynch? How could that come from mafia?
The bussing argument is hard to make, and made even harder by her general interest in this game so far.
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On June 24 2013 05:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I wanted to ask you that because you brought that up yourself and i do not think it's anything concrete as you just said - GK is alive.
Do you think it's more probable that there were two scum wagons at the end of the day 1 than only one?
Also if GK is in fact mafia, do you think ShiaoPi could be mafia. Like, thay did nothing than attack each other on D1?
I'm 50/50 on GK right now. His recent posting is better, but still has some random questionable elements in it.
As for the GK/Shaio link, I really hate speculating on associations. However I do believe it's possible, as neither of them really pushed each other's lynch. Do I believe it's likely? Well that depends on a host of factors, and I'm not sure enough to give a concrete answer.
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On June 24 2013 05:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hapa, i agree with you on ShiaoPi, i don't think he's scum. I disagree with Adam though.
Do you think Adam is scum, or that he's just not a town-read of yours?
Also do you still think Cora is town?
I have him behaviorally as town, though my town-read has somewhat waned with the whole Ange thing. That, and his town-read on Darth Punk was really really weird looking back at it.
So yeah, a bit of a wishy-washy answer, but I'm assuming I'll have 48 hours with him tomorrow to set things straight.
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Oh come on. Let them fight. I need to hear more from Cora anyway.
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Stephano is best commentator
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GK, it really looks like you're mis-representing Cora's vote on you. From the very post you quoted...
On June 23 2013 07:11 cDgCorazon wrote:
I really feel like DP lynch would be really terrible so I would go for any other option besides DP.
GK is in that list of people who have played subpar and I would be up for his lynch. Right now there is a clusterfuck of people who have played like this. Might as well get rid of one of them now (as Hapa said).
##Unvote
##Vote: Goodkarma
The lurker lynch seems like a post-justification for his vote. He had a town-read on DP and didn't want to see him lynched. Whether or not that read on DP is scummy is a subject for another debate, but it is what it is.
Also, why do you care about list posts? List posts are non-alignment indicative.
I have my reasons to be suspicious of Cora, but all the reasons you're coming up with aren't very robust.
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Somewhat.
He's being a lot more trolly this game which is throwing me off. The raw activity suggests he's town, but his refusal to substantiate anything is maddening.
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On June 24 2013 06:42 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 04:55 Hapahauli wrote:@ GoodKarmaRegarding CoraThere are a lot of things I could say about his play, but wishy-washy isn't one of them. Also his reasoning for voting you was pretty much "I think DP is super-town, I will vote anyone except for him"(...which isn't any better, but it isn't what you represent it to be ("lololol there are 5 lurkers let's go and kill GK"). Regarding ShaioOne of the reasons that I'm skeptical of your push is along the lines of what Ange said a couple of pages back: On June 23 2013 20:34 Ange777 wrote:
To be honest I really don't see scum ShiaoPi right now. Yes, his inactivity is troubling but in I Swear he showed that he can actually play scum differently. Reverting back to his absolutely lurking scum meta from the past just simply does not make any sense for me. From last game, we know the guy is capable of playing an active and engaged scumgame. So why revert to this passive/lurky play? Also, are you sure this passive play of his is exclusive to his scum-games as opposed to his town-games? I already discussed the Cora portion with Cora. As far as Shao goes, yes he played as scum last game in a way substantially different from this one. Specifically, he was more active. But the games before that he apparently played differently enough from that that you couldn't spot him as scum. Why do you think he couldn't have changed his scumplay yet again here? I have trouble understanding how as town Shao would be this trollish and unproductive. And on top of all the scummy things he's done, his vote on me and afk is behavior that could be clearly scum-motivated. ...
There's some very objectionable analysis in this paragraph.
But the games before that he apparently played differently enough from that that you couldn't spot him as scum. Why do you think he couldn't have changed his scumplay yet again here?
The argument that he changed his scum-play for the worse isn't very compelling.
I have trouble understanding how as town Shao would be this trollish and unproductive.
I can point to several of his town games where he acts just like this.
In fact, Mafia LXII comes to mind - a game that you both played in.
And on top of all the scummy things he's done, his vote on me and afk is behavior that could be clearly scum-motivated.
I'm surprised at the lack of sympathy you have for the "afk" thing, given that you used it in your own defense earlier this game and was afk for a good portion of this game yourself.
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EPT
