EPTCarnival Cruise Mafia - Page 117
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On May 26 2013 01:10 Dandel Ion wrote: Game would have been better as well as closer if the modkills didn't happen. I've never understood how people sign up for games and then just don't say or do dick all. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 26 2013 01:10 Dandel Ion wrote: Game would have been better as well as closer if the modkills didn't happen. given that those people signed up, the modkills were essential for town to have a fighting chance - hiro was right, they just wouldn't have had enough votes to ever lynch a scum. obviously though you're right that the game would've been better if those people had decided to actually play | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
BM told me he was out of time as well. No clue what happened with sinani. ETA: About LYLO. As Town - this is why you should seriously do work before getting to that point. You know the worst players will be alive so try and end the game before that. Shiro was useless so he was going to be lynched at some point anyway so your chances to win were small. Something I was going to put in my analysis, but the game ended before I got to, was VE actually had a chance to bus any of his teammates since he got "DT confirmed". Scum had too many options, and prp and snb lurked the last 2? days and still couldn't be lynched. Town's chances to win were very shaky with only 1 person trying to read the thread. | ||
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
Sorry. Thanks for Ace and Dandel Ion for hosting this game! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I'm still confused about a couple of things. Was going after Prom the wrong move? I thought I was in danger given that I BH flipped, showing that I was pushing a town Hiro lynch over scum BH. Did I panic here? I knew when I pushed the Hiro lynch the reasoning was sound. Was I in a good position to defend any attacks against me? So I thought I was screwed, and given that SK shot BH, I thought SK would thus continue to keep shooting scum. So I saw it as a "I'm done anyway, might as well do a 1 for 1 trade", which is what happened. Was SK not that big a threat to scum team? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
 In retrospect the Town collectively, didn't put 2 and 2 together. However on a night where only Scum died after a Vigi flip an SK being in the game is possible. You guys immediately post that it must be Prom. Two errors here: 1.) You guys never disprove how anyone else can't be the Serial Killer. In fact, none of you mention anyone else's name. This was the biggest problem with the posts. 2.) There is no real attempt at proving how Prom can be the SK, but not Mafia. So if the Town is reading they should notice a concerted effort to get Prom lynched. When they finally believe he is the SK they should also realize who is likely Scum. At this point they didn't need to lynch him as they could kill any of you and go into next day at 4-3-1. Two of the Town's PR would have gotten weakened both factions severely and probably ended the game. On May 26 2013 07:21 slOosh wrote: I thought I was in danger given that I BH flipped, showing that I was pushing a town Hiro lynch over scum BH. Did I panic here? I knew when I pushed the Hiro lynch the reasoning was sound. Was I in a good position to defend any attacks against me? I don't think you were in major danger of getting lynched because Town was busy arguing among themselves.Prom was an actual threat. Even assuming Prom would shoot you guys you had options. Bulletproof vest + finding a better way to lynch him. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Now, does that mean the goal was good but the process was poorly executed? Or was the goal of eliminating SK not the best thing to do? If if was a matter of execution, would something like this be better? "hey these NKs are weird what is going on?" "maybe there could be SK?" "Prom is suspicious because [quote my post right before the mega case], right guys?" "SKs tend to look like [insert whatever heuristics I want to conjure up], and Prom and [add another players name] look like this" .... So as I write this ... it's hard to think, why I as town, would push SK over scum. Would this be where I make bs and try to pass it off? I don't know how to do point 2) without bringing up this point. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Come back to claim credit for it after he flips for double lulz. You could also paint a Scum case for Prom but that would be a bit more work with Prom going after BH. You'd really need to make a convincing bus case that the Town would believe. Not like that would be extremely hard, but you have to out argue Prom in that case. If I remember correctly most of the Scum team already had good thread presence at that point and Town were in-fighting. You could probably get a sizable voting block just convincing 2 or 3 of them and hoping apathy and deaf ears takes Prom down. By the way this is all just theory. Even after the screw up your team did what it needed to come back from a bad position which is just as good. Probably even better. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
.... ohhh okok, so you have to lay down the premise of an SK first right, and establish that they are trying to balance numbers. So how do you push an SK lynch over a scum one? Or was this theoretically possible only because of town's poor condition, and wouldn't fly if they were a in better state? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
okok, so you have to lay down the premise of an SK first right, and establish that they are trying to balance numbers. Right. So we work backwards and tell the town "look, BH died. The person failed to get him lynched yesterday so they shot him last night. They knew he was Scum. Pretty sure that guy is a Serial Killer" Then you bring up BH's wagon. Let the chips fall. Also give Town lots of time to discuss things and see how close they are to lynching him. Then you add a bit more to it: "SK was trying to balance numbers because he knows the Scum team was going to runaway with the victory. Look how hard Prom was pushing to get BH lynched." Just mix it in like an add on to Town arguments. If they get sidetracked away from Prom you push it even harder to keep the focus on him. You appear like a Townie figuring this guy is 3rd party. Your only issue is what happens if a Townie shows up asking why lynch SK over Scum? They post an argument about a 4-3-1 scenario vs 5-4 scenario. Then you just point out that no one has found any good Scum suspects. Of course they haven't, you've had them discussing Serial Killer possibilities for hours. They never had time also this is kind of good: BH's wagon at the end of Day 2 Blazinghand[L-3]: You guys didn't know but the Cop is on this wagon so lynching him would have been lulz. But you've got an interesting argument to throw massive fire on Prom. "Look at the votes on BlazingHand. Everyone except shirokami, Promethelax, and Oats switched off at one point. Oats was the last one on the wagon so if he knew BH was Scum he would have voted far earlier. Shiro's vote isn't even put on with any real explanation. (link the quote where he says "good night sweet prince"). This leaves Prome as the #1 suspect. He's the second guy on the wagon and never even changes his vote. He was 100% sure BH is Scum. He is most likely the SK" | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
So a couple concerns. How can you selectively point out Prom as the pusher of the BH wagon? I thought he dropped a vote on him, and VE decided to push him hard (I could very well be wrong, I only skimmed the WoS / BH mess). On May 26 2013 09:06 Ace wrote: "SK was trying to balance numbers because he knows the Scum team was going to runaway with the victory. Look how hard Prom was pushing to get BH lynched." I'm not sure how I would argue this. Also, how does Prom being 100% sure BH is scum be indicative of him being SK? It makes him suspect, but if anything it would point him to be more likely scum than SK no? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18630979 (before that he was pushing VE )You could instead leave the part out about Prom pushing hard if you assume Townies will go back and read the interaction. Instead emphasize how he was so sure the guy was Scum he didn't even bother to change his vote. You could probably even use his lack of pushing against him - he didn't care all that much if BH didn't get lynched. Even if a townie did (HiroPro in this case) he was going to shoot him the upcoming night anyway. Prome's lack of pushing is actually an anti-town tell in this instance. A proTown player would be trying to get his scum read lynched if he is so sure. Prome was sure enough he didn't even move his vote because a Townie would die and he'd Night Kill BH. He is the Serial Killer. Also, how does Prom being 100% sure BH is scum be indicative of him being SK? It makes him suspect, but if anything it would point him to be more likely scum than SK no? 2 paths and both are equally good for you: 1.) With BH dying and Prom on his wagon, Prom would have to be bussing. You could try and prove this and if you did that would be great. You could expose Prom for lack of pushing BH's wagon hard as he knew he wouldn't really die maybe? So it was a failed bus that happened to make Prom look good once BH got night killed. 2.) The first path is already discussed. Prom is SK because only 1 Scum died and he was pushing for BH's death. You just use the stuff already mentioned to get him killed. Remember it isn't always about being right. You technically don't even care what is true and what isn't. You just want to prove a scenario exists where more likely than not Prom is an SK (or Mafia). Once you get enough of these little premises gathered up the Town is left to piece out what's a sound argument. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On May 27 2013 05:20 VisceraEyes wrote: I want to explain my BH push when I get to a computer. Anyone familiar with my play should be able to see I never had any intension of getting him lynched. It was strictly a PR move and as Ace will tell you, a fairly transparent one. I thought so. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 27 2013 05:20 VisceraEyes wrote: I want to explain my BH push when I get to a computer. Anyone familiar with my play should be able to see I never had any intension of getting him lynched. It was strictly a PR move and as Ace will tell you, a fairly transparent one. yeah but i think ace would agree that it wasn't a very good idea in that circumstance | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Promethelax was, at the time, the only super dangerous non-scum left in the game. And when I saw him come back in and drop a vote on BH, several things went through my mind.
So with all of these things in mind, I saw an opportunity to do one of three things: 1) Bus BH and earn infinity towncred, leaving an opening to lynch Prom for scum. 2) Achieve no lynch and make myself look better to Prom for trying to get his lynch through. 3) Achieve Mislynch in HiroPro. Regardless of the actual outcome though, my intention was 4) make VE look unquestionably town. This was the purpose of the push on BH - to throw a wrench in the "lazyVE = scumVE" thought-train that was picking up momentum and make anyone invested in the game question their read of me. slOosh did a good job of "convincing" me that Prom's vote was anti-town-indicative in the thread, so me not being on BH after he flipped the next morning didn't actually end up hurting me as much as I thought it would. | ||
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