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On May 01 2013 03:31 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 03:27 TheRavensName wrote:
Look. No more mafia jailer. That's much more useful then clarity. Bussing looks to be a sure thing. How is jailer more useful than extra mafia KP? The only thing that made the bus a sure thing was the likelihood of Clarity's being modkilled. It's possible they follow your train of thought, but either way bus was obvious and necessary for scum. Case on Palmar inc., though not sure if more likely scum or town yet. I'm about halfway in.
The fact it roleblocks protects. And can shut down third party? Besides they traded one guy who was dead anyways for a guythat was saveable without cop claim.
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Alright I can see that. Either way the fact that mafia have been bussing for most of this game isn't exactly news. TRN what are your thoughts on Palmar atm since I'm in the middle of analyzing him?
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On April 27 2013 07:18 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 07:06 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ace you make an interesting point but I just don't feel good about a Clarity lynch. How many of those 6 matching voters would you say are scum, and what would it mean if Shiao does turn out to be scum? *nods at the conclusion BC has drawn WoS I honestly don't know yet. I've got a few players I'm leaning Scum on but I won't say because I'm not 100% sure and it doesn't make sense to start more wagons and finger pointing. Lets solve one thing at a time. if Shiao does turn out to be Scum AND clarity doesn't then the matching voters look real townish and I'm just wrong. Why does a clarity lynch feel uneasy to you?
Up until about this posts ace is saying shiao is guilty or atleast addressing the issue. Once clarity gets popped up he just follows it and pushes for it while also stating shiao had to just be a dumb townie. In repayment for this service, shiao hammers himself once yamato brings ace up. Its lovely really.
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On April 23 2013 18:24 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 17:52 Clarity_nl wrote:
I wouldn't lynch him right now, no. Would want to hear from him first.
Don't have many full fledged opinions yet, but the people I was gonna look into next (that being tonight, have work soon) were gonna be giygas, bc and shiaopi (mainly because I don't remember much of them from reading through the thread) sup scum
This one is a point FOR town Palmar becuase I can't see them making the decision to bus Clarity this early when he was actually active, unless they realized his play was so shitty he'd be going down immediately.
On April 26 2013 04:05 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 03:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Here's how i see things:
Vivax was shot because he was on the right track and town read for like everyone. This means probably at least one of ShiaoPi / Clarity is mafia. If Vivax was double stacked he was likely even more right in his reads. But i don't think this is the case here. It's clear that whoever jailed Palmar thought he was town. Town jailers do not jail offensively and mafia jailers do not jail defensively on N1. As there is no other flip than Vivax' it's highly likely that Palmar was shot, because i can't see who else scum would have shot over him. I'm not even going to go to the fact that this would also require a doctor to target the same (other than Palmar) target.
So unless someone else claims shot / roleblocked it's very likely that Palmar got shot and is town.
I don't like ShiaoPi lynch because it was brought up by VE who i think is scum. If Vivax was right on both of ShiaoPi/Clarity then it doesn't matter, but if one of them is town it's probably ShiaoPi. As i think Palmar is town, i do not think he is wrong about VE. But if VE is not gonna get lynched today, i'm going to vote for Clarity over ShiaoPi.
Now, you want to bring up an entirely different target in BC. Understandable, as you seem to think he is mafia. But you also bring up reasons why ShiaoPi/Clarity might be town. That is something i do not understand. If you think BC is better lynch than them, fine, push his lynch. But the way to do it is not by discrediting other people's cases unless you actually think they are town, which you don't seem to. Agree with everything, especially that ShiaoPi is probably town and Clarity is probably scum.
Here his agreement with Rayn puts VE in the position he is in if scum. The bus is more likely to have begun here, but can't be sure of stuff yet. VE was looking scummy earlier on in the game to be fair to Palmar,but he was not a likely lynch that day. The push onto VE overall though looks really bad since trying to push a 3rd possibly-town wagon when two scum are up for lynch...well......
On April 27 2013 18:58 Palmar wrote:
Still think VE is the best lynch.
But I do agree with a clarity lynch. I still don't understand how he entered the thread "catching up" and then had a fully fledged case within an hour. There was additionally no interest in pushing that lynch any harder. There is literally not a single "sharrant" in his filter after the case.
It just doesn't feel natural. He didn't ask Sharrant anything to try to determine his alignment, no "hey sharrant, explain this" or "what do you think about this". Just a straight up case with no build-up and no follow-up. Which basically tells me his heart wasn't really in it.
So with that I'm switching my vote to Clarity.
Lessgo.
This looks like the post where scum Palmar realizes his push is a bad idea.
On April 29 2013 05:56 Palmar wrote:
yeah he didn't say anything interesting and wanted me to put into effort of reading someone I didn't want to read at the time so I had no interest in the topic and consequently forgot about it.
On the topic of the TRN Mason QT. Says he forgot about it his story is somewhat corroborated by TRN...though I can't understand why you wouldn't interact at all with your masoner unless you worried about them picking up a read on you. The fact that Palmar uses the fact that TRN masoned him as evidence as to his towniness reads to me that he has no idea about TRN's play or the fact that he is new at the game (I picked him as town ages ago, I'm fairly sure others have as well) and so is worried about the potential for TRN outing him as scum when in fact TRN's chances of doing so as being new to Palmar's play are probably low.
On April 29 2013 06:00 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 05:56 Sharrant wrote:On April 29 2013 05:55 TheRavensName wrote:On April 29 2013 05:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
TRN can you post the logs? I was told that is against the rules. How many posts did Palmar make? Can you please paraphrase as best you can as to his actual respones, with as little as bias as possible. 3 posts (cba checking) 1 about asking TRN why he chose me and what he hoped to achieve. 2 saying I wanted to lynch VE and hadn't read into WoS 3 the post TRN mentioned about "oats was always going to flip town".
SO here he mentions I was the one TRN brought up that he didn't feel like looking into. Ok, I get that, but just the day before he says this:
On April 26 2013 04:06 Palmar wrote:
Also I haven't really read much today because I think it's so blindingly obvious we should lynch VE, but if no one else has brought it up, I have very bad feelings about WaveOfShadow based on what I had read up until like 10 pages ago.
Wouldn't this make me a suspect of his and someone he's likely to have read? Especially since I'm pretty sure I claimed miller before TRN's mason time ended and was super high on EVERYONE's suspicion list.
Palmar then begins to buddy up to his previous scumread in VE to try and get BC lynched. Presumably this is due to his N1 and N2 checks, which makes sense and is a point for Palmar having told the truth. (The long con is definitely possible, but is that likely to Palmar's scumplay? I don't know him that well.)
On April 29 2013 09:48 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 09:36 TheRavensName wrote:On April 29 2013 09:27 Palmar wrote:
Look at this bloodycobbler actively hunting third parties everywhere!
Also BC, did you ever explain why it would be a better idea to vig me than to lynch me? Personally I think that would be a waste of a shot since you have night protection. I did not ask you, I wanted BC's explanation for his statement. It's one of his slips this game. He called out for a player that he knew could be active, had the support of several important townies, to be vigged.I wonder if he was simply afraid that he would never be able to mislynch me?
I called Palmar out for this earlier and he never responded; which important townies had Palmar's back at this point? I didn't count many despite his crusade for action against 'the cobbler.'
On April 29 2013 10:34 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 10:31 Ace wrote:
no, we aren't lynching syl. There is stupidity going on right now.
CC - I dont know why you checked Shiao Night 1. That is a major stretch that you check him, he gets brought up, temp cleared, and then you check sylencia. thats 2 lurkers who have no impact on the game that you checked. not buying it. especially since you just claimed, without counter claiming Palmar. If you believe Palmar is a Cop there is no point in claiming right now as you'd let BC die with your vote. If you dont believe him, you vote him off. Claiming right now to add another suspect in the pool is nonsense. its not even been an hour since your case on sylencia - you could have pushed it ot let it marinate more. Your urgency shows little thinking here.
Lastly, you also can not confirm your check. Shiao hasn't flipped. We've got 2 Cops, both unconfirmed claiming results on the same day within an hour of each other. Both that also appeared on the infamous Oats wagon analysis.
bullshit. one of you is definitely lying and both of you made a bad play here. lol Ace we ARE lynching sylencia. absolute worst case scenario is CC is scum and we lynch townies for 2 days before lynching or vigging CC in return, leaving us with plenty of townies and like 2 mafia left. something like 11 townies maybe? You're crazy if you don't lynch sylencia.
I REALLY didn't like this post at the time. We know there's 3rd party and 3 scum left here so we certainly did not have 'plenty of townies.' Everything he says about being a cop though isn't provable one way or the other as of yet at this point; the rb and his checks check out. I don't know I don't like the idea that he making mislynches feel better than they actually would have been but it's such a scummy thing to post knowing the math that I don't see scum doing it.
On April 29 2013 10:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 10:49 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
I wouldn't have claimed if Palmar didn't go full retard and give us a red check without any prior checks. The situation could have turned out STUPID bad if BC was town and Palmar was actually insane cop, hedging his bets on being sane. But I like killing people so I get excited. Anyway, it's irrelevant. I had you as town read for most of the game, I've usually thought of you as nully to leaning town, and then you of course went and looked real town with grush after that hammer post. So, I don't think you're scum, which basically means I'm pretty cool with killing sylencia as he looks awful anyway, and shaiopi looks somewhat towny.
Well knowing what we know now....
I don't if anything can be said about this since everyone more or less agreed Sylencia didn't look great, but to say Shiao looked TOWNY is a GROSS overstatement. I also remember asking at some point whoever found Shiao towny, WHY did they think so and no one ever answered.
Hmm.
Alright sadly I don't have much to conclude about this case. Imo the scum points outweigh the town points just based on his filter and he's had a cba attitude for much of the game. We can't even discern his alignment based on his checks either because he didn't follow the plan which looks scummy as well. If he is telling thr truth he must be either paranoid or insane (which would make him exactly the same as CC? Same role AND same alignment? Unlikely imo....) and if he's paranoid he's more or less useless, no? I dunno guys, help me out.
I'm leaning scum overall but we have nother night of NKs ahead of us before we must act.
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On May 01 2013 03:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright I can see that. Either way the fact that mafia have been bussing for most of this game isn't exactly news. TRN what are your thoughts on Palmar atm since I'm in the middle of analyzing him?
I'm debating. I wanna lean 3p but I need to see another night phase before I commit to that sense ther has been some doubt tossed about that scenario. Otherwise I see as much evidence he's town as he is scummy.
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TRN I'd really like Ace to come back as I'd like to know what he has to say about Yamato's case, as well as Palmar.
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Your case makes me like scum palmar more than town. Not surw about 3, I still like it better unless we see some more night kills with only 1 death. If he gets roleblocked that would help me greatly, in deciding about him.
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BloodyC0bbler I choose you! You get the check tonight. Have at thee!
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Well another point against palmar is scum killed who he was suppose to check and then blocked his checker. That is fairly ahift since he didn't check cc anyways.
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The final two scum were on a team with 3 inactives. Is it more likely that the remaining scum are hyperactive to kind of disassociate through perceived mindset differences or whatever, or that they're also lurking through De motivation or whatever?
I would say the latter. I think the last scum are going to be semilurky angry dudes. Palmar and yamato both fit this description.
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BC isn't angry enough to be scum Imo.
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On May 01 2013 04:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
The final two scum were on a team with 3 inactives. Is it more likely that the remaining scum are hyperactive to kind of disassociate through perceived mindset differences or whatever, or that they're also lurking through De motivation or whatever?
I would say the latter. I think the last scum are going to be semilurky angry dudes. Palmar and yamato both fit this description.
Definitely gonna be some RNG rage after this game. VE I agree with you somewhat but I also worry that we've been tearing ourselves apart (with the help of a 3p who I'd argue MUST be active this game) and the 4/5 scum could be GiygaS/stutters or something stupid like that.
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So, seeing as hwo you mentioned it WoS I feel the need to bring it up again when Palmar ignored the Qt, he did post this: "oh oats was always gonna flip town. I didn't really care much for reasons best left unexplained" Whch is looking more and more like a scum slip then it did before, when it looked pretty bad.
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Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC?
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On May 01 2013 04:17 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 04:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
The final two scum were on a team with 3 inactives. Is it more likely that the remaining scum are hyperactive to kind of disassociate through perceived mindset differences or whatever, or that they're also lurking through De motivation or whatever?
I would say the latter. I think the last scum are going to be semilurky angry dudes. Palmar and yamato both fit this description. Definitely gonna be some RNG rage after this game. VE I agree with you somewhat but I also worry that we've been tearing ourselves apart (with the help of a 3p who I'd argue MUST be active this game) and the 4/5 scum could be GiygaS/stutters or something stupid like that.
The more I think about it, the dumber a third party seems. We only have one night where a 3rd party kill was even possible, and its the same night vigis could shoot. Till we see more, not enough to go on.
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On May 01 2013 04:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC?
Why is Ace not on this list VE?
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On May 01 2013 04:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC?
Not necessarily since there's always that 'well why are they still alive' factor, amirite? We'll have to see where tonight takes us and continue to discuss until the flip. VE I will follow TRN's curiousity on this; what are your thoughts regarding Ace atm?
TRN I suppose it's possible for 3rd party not to be present this game but I find it unlikely; where does the 2nd night kill on N2 come from? Can you explain all the rbs/kills without the presence of 3rd party?
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On May 01 2013 04:39 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 04:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
Does that seem likely to you? Wanna lynch them before Palmar, yamato or BC? Not necessarily since there's always that 'well why are they still alive' factor, amirite? We'll have to see where tonight takes us and continue to discuss until the flip. VE I will follow TRN's curiousity on this; what are your thoughts regarding Ace atm? TRN I suppose it's possible for 3rd party not to be present this game but I find it unlikely; where does the 2nd night kill on N2 come from? Can you explain all the rbs/kills without the presence of 3rd party?
Mafia JOAT/2nd Vigi? We only have one kill to point at and it was when Vigis could shoot, not night 1.
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I would like to see Yamato and Ace as well as Palmar and BC engaged in Mortal Kombat.
I would also like to hear more from Stutters, on anything really.
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On May 01 2013 04:44 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I would like to see Yamato and Ace as well as Palmar and BC engaged in Mortal Kombat.
I would also like to hear more from Stutters, on anything really.
You there! Substitute scate on through to the other side boy. What are your thoughts on these people and cases against them and why?
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EPT
