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On March 31 2013 07:48 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 07:45 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:43 Hapahauli wrote:On March 31 2013 07:39 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:38 Hapahauli wrote:On March 31 2013 07:36 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
prplhz - He's more active than normal, but also feels so goddamn detached. I can't put my finger on it, but it's off. He's coming in the thread and pretty much openly sheeping people. The suspicions that he's pursued on D2 (corazon... what?) are weird as hell.
Yamato hard-defending prplhz is weeeeeird, but there's usually something I could point to in prplhz's filter that's townie when he's town, and I've gotten none of that this game.
One might say this is more likely to be a paranoid townie, than a mafia who patently knows he's being ridiculous. Well he pushed Cora more because he "didn't like a post of his" rather than because Cora was scum. Anyway, I do want comments on Oats. Because I think I'm on to something. With what? His claim reaction? Why? I spilled the beans in a single explicit sentence and there was literally nothing else to say about it, it's an open and shut case. The fuck are you talking about? you're saying he never mentioned the s&b claim again. I said to you/the thread that s&b was practically confirmed town because any counterclaim would mean he died immediately. There's literally nothing else to be said in the thread about the claim after that point. Nooooo but think of it from Oats perspective. Oats clearly "doubted" the claim for a while. Why wouldn't he post something about him changing his opinions? His whole attitude towards feels more like a desperate attempt to shovel shit on SnB than a genuine "oh I guess I was wrong huh?"
I just think it's a weak point. If I'm envisaging a town-Oats, I can easily see him not grasping the line of thought that I put forth. I can just as easily see him not bothering to talk about it again after he read and understood what I said.
He may yet be mafia (although I doubt it) but I don't think it'll be because of that if he is.
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On March 31 2013 07:51 Hapahauli wrote:
I mean on a second lookthrough of Oats filter, there's nothing screamingly townie about it.
He kinda just went around latching onto cases and putting a show about being 100% confident that players were scum.
The thing I want to look at tomorrow that I have noted down to look at is how he made his cases.
I have a kinda memory that he made his cases on Palmar and Acro AFTER he was asked to make them, or after someone else had made one (in Acro's case) - i.e. post-justification. It may have happened with someone else too.
Balanced against this is the townie feelings that both Palmar and I got from his filter in general. I think Palmar said that he just felt pretty green in general, and I'm inclined to agree. If I don't find some really particular things when I look tomorrow, I'm still hedging on town.
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Cora, that's already built in if you look at how it goes from 8/4 to 6/2
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On March 31 2013 08:09 Hapahauli wrote:On the subject of "peculiar" things... Show nested quote +On March 28 2013 03:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im saying scum didnt shoot Grack.
I thought everyone agreed.
What.
lol Hapa.
Prp tends to disappear as town too.
In duel he disappeared in day 3 and got mislynched for his troubles.
This sticks out to me a lot. Because I didn't think it was possible at all for town to have shot Palmar until Prplhz came in and said something about possibly accidentally killing him. I get the feeling he knows man. He knows.
I'll read your post closer when I've had less to drink. But he's not talking about shooting Palmar here, he's talking about shooting Grack. And my instinct has told me Grack was a town-shot (although without great certainty). Where is he saying town shot Palmar?
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Hapa you're so fucking intelligent and you miss the most basic stuff sometimes <3
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I'm drunker than Claudius and I caught it.
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Not a chance I'm reading 100 posts in a mason-log right now, that will have to wait until tomorrow.
Random thing is that I know rayn posts under BLFG in general obsQTs (I've seen him post under that name in other obsQTs), so it's not some attempt at hiding identity, I don't think
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On March 31 2013 08:33 Hapahauli wrote:
Well that's why Acro was scummy yeah, but what's the significance in regards to Sinani?
Sinani is prob town because of how much Acro wanted him dead last cycle. Sinani had a high chance of dying, and I don't think mafia would double-bus on a lynch. There is of course the possibility that Acro was planning to vote-rig at the end fo the day to save Sinani, but eh... that seems pretty convoluted.
Anyway by elimination, the 3rd scum pretty much has to be Oats. If there's a 4th, probably Prplhz.
I have issues with some of this. I'll look into it more tomorrow.
Both you and Kei are both beating the drum that Acro wanted sinani dead, but you have to remember that Acro was completely and totally on nisani, and not sinani, during Day 1, and I think you're either forgetting this or not attaching not enough importance to it.
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On March 31 2013 08:35 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 08:34 marvellosity wrote:On March 31 2013 08:33 Hapahauli wrote:
Well that's why Acro was scummy yeah, but what's the significance in regards to Sinani?
Sinani is prob town because of how much Acro wanted him dead last cycle. Sinani had a high chance of dying, and I don't think mafia would double-bus on a lynch. There is of course the possibility that Acro was planning to vote-rig at the end fo the day to save Sinani, but eh... that seems pretty convoluted.
Anyway by elimination, the 3rd scum pretty much has to be Oats. If there's a 4th, probably Prplhz. I have issues with some of this. I'll look into it more tomorrow. Both you and Kei are both beating the drum that Acro wanted sinani dead, but you have to remember that Acro was completely and totally on nisani, and not sinani, during Day 1, and I think you're either forgetting this or not attaching not enough importance to it. Day 2. Difficult for me to imagine Acro willingly bussing not one, but two of his teammates on the double-lynch.
yes, I'm totally aware you're talking about Day 2, I'm saying you're disregarding Day 1 when you're thinking about this.
Acro mafia is pretty much 100% bound to bus Smurf, so we can forget that. That just leaves lynch target #2.
At the time when Acro made his case on sinani, sinani was under at least some sort of pressure. You thought he was the more likely mafia between nisani and sinani, and nisani had just flipped town. I'd thought sinani was much more likely to be mafia if Nisani flipped town. Palmar thought sinani was more likely mafia than sinani.
Realistically you should be completely forgetting Smurf in this occasion. So what were the circumstances where Acro was bussing sinani? sinani wasn't under *that* much pressure from anyone. Smurf was #1 of course but #2 was completely up for grabs. It could have been me, it could have been OO, it could have been strongandbig, it could have been sinani. It's actually perfectly possible and reasonable that an Acro under not too much pressure could bus a sinani that's also not under too much pressure. I just remember Liquid City towards the end of Day 1, where I randomly hard bussed Node out of nowhere on Day 1 and he barely avoided the lynch. My bus on Node that game was far more likely to lead to a lynch than Acro randomly deciding to bus sinani. Bear in mind that Acro didn't push sinani at all. He attacked him, but the followup has been negligible.
None of this *has to be* the case, but I'm trying to show that if it were the case, it's not actually that unlikely at all, in my opinion.
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On March 31 2013 08:42 Keirathi wrote:
"So in closing, tomorrow we should focus on Smurf and Sinani.If they both suddenly prove they're townie, then OO and probably Marv," is particularly interesting, with OO flipping town and clearing marv (for all intents and purposes, although we don't exactly what it is that he knew).
I just find it extremely hard to believe that he puts 2 teammates and 2 townies in his list, but neither of the townies are the ones he actually wants to push.
Your opinion here is nonsense. You're attaching far too much importance on what a mafia is saying. I don't find it hard to believe at all. It's very easy to put mafia on a list that you want to lynch - the question is, are you actually trying to lynch them?
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On March 31 2013 08:44 Hapahauli wrote:
Yeah just read it and I disagree. I think you're underplaying the double-lynch factor and the amount of suspicion Sinani was under at the time. Basically Acro went straight from the Nisani lynch to immediately pushing Smurf/Sinani. Never explored other options at all.
well I vehemently disagree.
If both Oats and prplhz are mafia I will be monumentally surprised. I attach a > 1% possibility to this combination.
I may have been shit recently but I just don't see this.
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EBWOP* er.... < 1%? lol :p
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On March 31 2013 08:47 Hapahauli wrote:
Oh well.
Anyways I'm done for a while. It would be ideal if obv-townies weren't discussing this.
Actually we're the ideal people to be discussing this. Between you/me/Kei, we're the strongest players around to discuss this.
That said, I'm about to go out again. I'll be back again before lynch time tomorrow to talk about it more, though.
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In my sober state I was just coming around to agreeing with Hapa/Kei about the sinani thing...
This claim looks pretty bad imo.
I'd also like prplhz to full roleclaim, I don't like this pussying about with this should I, shouldn't I nonsense.
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Phone posting - did rayn claim Grack shot too? I forget and I'm trying to mull things over
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I guess it was a blue snipe from mafia like Smurf said then. From a setup perspective, it seems like rayn is the town Kp? Just need him to come back and answer the outstanding questions I guess.
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Any town member who shot Grack should claim it, regardless of whether he has outstanding powers.
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On April 01 2013 01:36 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2013 01:34 cDgCorazon wrote:This is why I don't see Sinani as scum: On March 31 2013 07:33 Hapahauli wrote:
Sinani initially seems more active than normal, but all he's really done is tunnel a bunch of people. I'd say of the group of four, he's the one I think is the likeliest townie due to how Acro pushed him. I do need to read into Acro's suspicions on him again just to see if it is compelling enough to vindicate Sinani completely.
I know scum can be risky, but bussing two of your scummates out of 4 total scum is borderline stupid. I don't think Acro is stupid. Dude. Acro could totally change the lynch to screw with us. Why not do that and hope we wifom out of lynching sinani? What in HIS PLAY that is scummy? Also prp. Talk to me about prp.
This is actually a very good point.
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The point is that mafia can bus with impunity with the vote rigger
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EPT
