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On March 19 2013 15:40 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:37 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 19 2013 15:30 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 19 2013 15:16 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
BH you have an unhealthy obsession with Geript imo. And I was pissed at him last game but I've since played in another NMM with him and he's perfectly capable of decent play; I think he may have learned from LX and doesn't seem likely to repeat it (though he's certainly trollier now).
If you survive the night, make a case on Geript and I'll listen to it if it's actually based on decent reads and not an emotional response to him.
Still waiting on the other stuff you promised too, daypost is coming up real soon I think. That actually gave me townie points on BH... im surprised we treating this "tell' so differently Will have to re-read the logs, they REALLY hard to read. Yeh gotta read from bottom to top and then the dates/signatures are hard too. I'm not saying that his obsession with geript is scummy per se, but I have an overall null read on Geript so if there's something I'm missing to make him look scummier I'd be interested to see if BH can bring something purely objective to the table. Actually for me the tell was how he went about discussing Geript.. Maybe i have been conned, but I read genuine consideration being given.. My take was that BH is instinctively driven to lynch a player like Geript (too much deviation in play styles). As scum he could EASILY push that lynch on that validation. Instead, he is actively querying other peoples thoughts to see if its just him being tunneled, or there is something there. Now yes, scum coudl be fishing on a push.. but lets be serious.. Geript is lynchbait, you dotn need to go to that effort to validate the push. I am reading this as a town guy trying to actively put consideration into his targets. As I said before.. the Log format is a fuckn bitch to read.. so I would like to read it one more time (will prob copy/paste the logs into word or soemthing.. just to confirm im not missing some funny business.. but I think that he handled Geript the same to both VE and GK gives consistency to the tell. (He didnt know he was gonna post the mason log either remember!) Thoughts WoS? You call Geript lynchbait...has he actually been as such this game? Looking into his filter his read on zare is more or less what I came up with on him, and he does a decent job attempting to press his reads. Sure he gets trolly later on with BH but if you look at his play in the most recent NMM he has discovered his balls, apparently. I havnt read anything of Geript other than his RNG push, so perhaps im talking out of turn.. But i stand by him being lynch bait.. he gets emotionally flustered too quickly. Geript admits freely he has been voted Least Valuable Town numerous times.. so yeah. I dunno what to expect from a scum Geript; but based on my heuristic of a lynchbait Geript.. I think BH reasoning is town aligned. U didnt actually comment on your thought; other than geript isnt lynchbait? Do you think his logs feel forced in general?
I don't think the RNG push means anything, it's just him putting on his troll shoes imo. You make a good point though that every game I've played in with Geript he has been town so I wouldn't know meta-wise what to expect from Geript. I guess I've been unconsciously assuming he's town since his play fits the past 3 games.
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As an aside, lets do some setup speculation.
How likely is it that there are 2 town aligned masons, with Nightmare already flipping? Granted, Nightmare was a mason-vig, but Mason is a pretty damn strong role. In games with temporary masons, you don't often see them so lopsided, numbers wise :o
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Just so everyone knows, I'm pretty sick tonight so I won't be writing a ton of flavor.
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I might not be around for deadline, which is unfortunate, so I have no choice to post now. It's not going to be very detailed, since I'm short on time.
In case I die, please look into VE and TranceStorm in particular. Tentatively glurio may also be a good candidate for lynch.
I reread to try and figure out why I misread greymist and what else I invariably got wrong, since I was very confident he was scum and I (foolishly) predicated some of my reads on him tentatively flipping red. I found VE relatively townie, for reasons I don't really remember. However, I think he is a great lynch for tomorrow given how much he has posted, but how little he has actually said. He also was very quick to push blame onto me following the lynch, even going so far as to say that I lurked my way through the wagon building. Firstly, that makes no sense, and secondly, he wasn't around at all either (and if he truly were interested in lynching someone other than grey, because he believed that GK or whoever was more likely to flip scum, perhaps he should have vocalized this before the lynch).
I found that the most interesting-prior to lynch, there was a huge amount of time where VE said nothing at all. It was only after lynch that VE came into the thread to push blame onto the originator of the case (me).
Aside from VE I think scum are probably lurking. VE's activity is lower than normal too, so it wouldn't surprise me if the whole scum team is lurking. glurio and TranceStorm in particular stand out as suspicious.I think TranceStorm is considerably more likely to flip scum than glurio though-at the very least some of glurio's posts have a hint of an abrasive, town-like attitude.
In particular, notice TS's last post in the thread: it's not much more than an excuse for why he was a complete nonfactor all day, followed by a relatively weak suspicion of Wiggles. He also basically abstained, given that his vote was on DYH, someone who was, as far as I can remember, never a serious lynch candidate. Now, had he given off the impression that he wanted to push his read on DYH, I would be okay with him having relatively low activity. However, he did no such thing-most of his posts are low quality and are sympathetic toward a mafia-view of the game (e.g. the stuff he said about d1 and looking for differences in town/mafia play) His comments on lynch candidates are cursory at best:
On March 18 2013 00:38 TranceStorm wrote:
I have no reservations on a zarepath lynch. I have nothing to contribute on him beyond what others have already said. I think that DoYouHas is a stronger candidate however. This is all pending an explanation of the Vivax 'scumslip' though.
and I never got the impression that he was interested in scumhunting. In fact, for most of the time that I was reading the game, I did not even realize that he was playing. Scum love to go unnoticed-then they don't have to deal with the pressure of faking reads.
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On March 19 2013 15:43 Keirathi wrote:
As an aside, lets do some setup speculation.
How likely is it that there are 2 town aligned masons, with Nightmare already flipping? Granted, Nightmare was a mason-vig, but Mason is a pretty damn strong role. In games with temporary masons, you don't often see them so lopsided, numbers wise :o
No idea
IIRC
Mafia LIX had 6 masons from memory out of 30 players
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On March 19 2013 15:41 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:40 Keirathi wrote:On March 19 2013 15:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 19 2013 15:37 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: And, he stands up to VE's SAST. How many newbie scum go out of their way to stand up to vets? I did the same thing..... On March 17 2013 02:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
I'm not familiar to heavily themed games but what makes me wonder here about the setup is the sheer number of roles. 17 to be exact. Are these all going to be roles with power?
And now off the topic of setup speculation a few things I noticed from the very beginning of the game:
BH playing exactly like I've seen him before, mega aggressive. It works fine for him, he hunts scum and succeeds.
Can't decide whether I like Geript's 'new troll-y' style of playing or not, but ultimately (as many have pointed out) it's probably better than the way he ended in LX.
I don't have any scumreads as of yet (especially since half the thread is yet to post) but I'll be keeping my eye out.
Oh yeah one more thing: VE that SAST idea is retarded in my eyes, but makes me wonder about some sort of extra/3rd party wincon. Something like,' get a bunch of people to join your 3rd party group and successfully get 3-5 people mislynched' or some shit. I can't think of ANY other reason why you'd try to be serious about something that ridiculous. If you're serious about hunting scum, it's probably better you focus on that since you can be a huge asset to town when you're focused. So, you're saying you're scum, so my argument is invalid? Okay then. No, I'm saying that argument is meaningless either way. Zare is not afraid to 'stand up' to anyone, nor should he be, scum or town. I think it;s null.
It's easy for you to say you disagree if you are town. You have no problem standing up to someone, because it doesn't really matter how you look to that person.
As a newbie scum, coming into your first (?) big game, you are scared to death of fucking up and getting lynching for saying something stupid. You don't run into the thread and start picking apart posts from one of the strongest players in the game.
Even just think back to hydra, when you posted that bit about ObsQT. Would you have done that if you were scum? I'm going to say its unlikely, because as scum you are worried about keeping up your appearance. You would have talked with Soniv and gotten your story straight.
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On March 19 2013 15:43 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:40 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:37 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 19 2013 15:30 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 19 2013 15:16 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
BH you have an unhealthy obsession with Geript imo. And I was pissed at him last game but I've since played in another NMM with him and he's perfectly capable of decent play; I think he may have learned from LX and doesn't seem likely to repeat it (though he's certainly trollier now).
If you survive the night, make a case on Geript and I'll listen to it if it's actually based on decent reads and not an emotional response to him.
Still waiting on the other stuff you promised too, daypost is coming up real soon I think. That actually gave me townie points on BH... im surprised we treating this "tell' so differently Will have to re-read the logs, they REALLY hard to read. Yeh gotta read from bottom to top and then the dates/signatures are hard too. I'm not saying that his obsession with geript is scummy per se, but I have an overall null read on Geript so if there's something I'm missing to make him look scummier I'd be interested to see if BH can bring something purely objective to the table. Actually for me the tell was how he went about discussing Geript.. Maybe i have been conned, but I read genuine consideration being given.. My take was that BH is instinctively driven to lynch a player like Geript (too much deviation in play styles). As scum he could EASILY push that lynch on that validation. Instead, he is actively querying other peoples thoughts to see if its just him being tunneled, or there is something there. Now yes, scum coudl be fishing on a push.. but lets be serious.. Geript is lynchbait, you dotn need to go to that effort to validate the push. I am reading this as a town guy trying to actively put consideration into his targets. As I said before.. the Log format is a fuckn bitch to read.. so I would like to read it one more time (will prob copy/paste the logs into word or soemthing.. just to confirm im not missing some funny business.. but I think that he handled Geript the same to both VE and GK gives consistency to the tell. (He didnt know he was gonna post the mason log either remember!) Thoughts WoS? You call Geript lynchbait...has he actually been as such this game? Looking into his filter his read on zare is more or less what I came up with on him, and he does a decent job attempting to press his reads. Sure he gets trolly later on with BH but if you look at his play in the most recent NMM he has discovered his balls, apparently. I havnt read anything of Geript other than his RNG push, so perhaps im talking out of turn.. But i stand by him being lynch bait.. he gets emotionally flustered too quickly. Geript admits freely he has been voted Least Valuable Town numerous times.. so yeah. I dunno what to expect from a scum Geript; but based on my heuristic of a lynchbait Geript.. I think BH reasoning is town aligned. U didnt actually comment on your thought; other than geript isnt lynchbait? Do you think his logs feel forced in general? I don't think the RNG push means anything, it's just him putting on his troll shoes imo. You make a good point though that every game I've played in with Geript he has been town so I wouldn't know meta-wise what to expect from Geript. I guess I've been unconsciously assuming he's town since his play fits the past 3 games. Is there a particular you have dodged the question @ hand 2 or 3 times in a row?
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On March 19 2013 15:49 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:43 Keirathi wrote:
As an aside, lets do some setup speculation.
How likely is it that there are 2 town aligned masons, with Nightmare already flipping? Granted, Nightmare was a mason-vig, but Mason is a pretty damn strong role. In games with temporary masons, you don't often see them so lopsided, numbers wise :o No idea IIRC Mafia LIX had 6 masons from memory out of 30 players
But weren't 3 of those town, and 3 scum?
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You want a solid read spelled out for you? Fine. I don't think Geript is scum. I have null-leaning town.
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Keir you make a good point, but then if anything that points to zarepath being scummy rather than someone you don't want to focus on D2....
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On March 19 2013 15:52 WaveofShadow wrote:
Keir you make a good point, but then if anything that points to zarepath being scummy rather than someone you don't want to focus on D2....
What? How?
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I see definite differences in his play that I noted; just because he stands up to one person disagreeing with the town circle idea is not enough.
His regular town play he is much more methodical, he pushes his reads constantly and as Mocsta noted, isn't afraid of trying crazy shit if he thinks it might benefit the town.
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Day 2 coming in about 5 minutes
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I just don't think that you can write him off as a 'newbie' because he was one of the strongest players in the game I had with him, and has since played in another.
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On March 19 2013 15:50 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:49 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 15:43 Keirathi wrote:
As an aside, lets do some setup speculation.
How likely is it that there are 2 town aligned masons, with Nightmare already flipping? Granted, Nightmare was a mason-vig, but Mason is a pretty damn strong role. In games with temporary masons, you don't often see them so lopsided, numbers wise :o No idea IIRC Mafia LIX had 6 masons from memory out of 30 players But weren't 3 of those town, and 3 scum?
yes that sounds about right from memory
i beleive Dr.H said this is a normal game with flavour (and closed setup)
So we arent ognna expect fucked imbalance or uber roles (like in personality)
I think out of 25 players.. 5scum.. perhaps 6 (if no 3rd party)
5-8 blues (maybe more blues to compensate for closed setup). but blues might be additional masons or whatever
Im not sure if we can really speculate from 1 flip though?
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On March 19 2013 15:51 WaveofShadow wrote:
You want a solid read spelled out for you? Fine. I don't think Geript is scum. I have null-leaning town.
Thats the thing. I was never talking about Geript?
I was talking about BH logs, and the impact on my read on BH... how is this not clear?
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On March 19 2013 15:43 Keirathi wrote:
As an aside, lets do some setup speculation.
How likely is it that there are 2 town aligned masons, with Nightmare already flipping? Granted, Nightmare was a mason-vig, but Mason is a pretty damn strong role. In games with temporary masons, you don't often see them so lopsided, numbers wise :o
I hate setup speculation, but yes, this is an entirely reasonable point in the context of speculating about the setup. I can understand VE's reasoning for outing me, especially given that this is the case. I don't really have an answer for this other than that I am a town-aligned mason role, and although it's weird it's not unthinkable, and DrH is a wiley fellow.
Okay so lists posts are crap right so I'm gonna keep it short and simple, here are my two scumreads I want to lynch today, and why we should lynch them. I'm leaving wiggles, testsubj, geript wos ryu dp etc unmentioned because they are not my top 2 scumreads and I want to stay focused. Each of them individually has things I dislike about them but barring a something weird happenign with the daypost I won't be pushing them.If that changes and I am still alive, I will let you know.
1) thepeashooter: I've talked a lot about TPS in thread already but mainly I'm concerned about his attempts to _look_ like he's contributing without actually doing it. I'm like 90% sure his "anger" at my spamming is faked given that you had the same filter length as me at the time and his response to it was to just quote a bunch of my posts. He's done a pretty slick job of not contributing to the game and looking like an "emotional townie". Why would he quote all my posts and complain about my filter length when at the time Ve has the same level of spam? (link) this doesn't read "angry town" to me, it reads "fake anger". His weird opt-out of the town discourse D1 (link) is scummy, as well as the fact he had to be forcefully prodded into contributing. I don't buy his theory that he wanted to "let it play out" with GM rather than (link) actively interacting with the case. Imagine you are a townie in this situation. Do you engage and try to get an understanding of what's going on and push your own reads, or even ask questions to refine them? Or do you hang back and "let it play out"? Even if you hang back, you at least ask questions and try to learn more. This is not what town does, this think that TPS has done. A lot of his other posts aren't analysis but are just dismissals (link)(link)(link) in which he doesn't push his own ideas but just naysays what other people have to say.
I will be voting for TPS when the daypost goes up based on this.
2) vivax: I know a lot of people like vivax, but I don't. For me, the essence of this scumread comes down to the inconsistency of his own scumreads. As VE has astutely pointed out, Viv sounds weird (link) and inconsistent on his reads (link). Now you may think "BH people change their minds all the time" but that's not what we're talking about here. Vivax doesn't actually remember who he thinks is scum. He claims scum are pushing a wagon, but marks his scumreads as others. What this means is he has an idea (perhaps from his scum QT) of who he should push, and he makes up a rationalization post-hoc. A town player doesn't forget what he thinks-- hwo could he? But scum forgets easily. His analysis is pointing the wrong way, and this isn't a mistake town makes. his thought process isn't town. Although he doesn't have the prepoderance of evidence against him that TPS does, I consider him a highly acceptable lynch candidate.
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Pre-Day Reads
Town
BH and GK - I believe the claim as presented by BH.
Scib - Person I have agreed with the most, constructive.
Vivax - I haven't agreed with him much of the time, but the way he has behaved and pursued his reads looks very townie to me.
DP - This one is harder to explain, it is more of a gut read.
Likely Town
VE - The last time I nailed VE to the wall as scum (when I was vig) the thing that pushed him over the top for me was how he seemed to distance himself from the thread conversation. His play thus far has been very involved and spotlight grabbing which is the opposite of that game, Paranoia mafia. I am not a big fan of how he has been jumping around to different lynch targets though.
Hopeless - His posts were few and short, but I liked them.
Ryu - He defended himself well and like a townie when I pressured him. Keep an eye on him and make sure he is contributing on multiple subjects.
People I Found Myself Agreeing With, IE The Dangerous Ones (if they are scum)
Mr. Wiggles - Seems to have some pretty good analysis, but I remain cautious of him.
layabout - Was one of my strongest townreads early on, and could probably fit very comfortably in my 'Likely Town' category. His lack of any lengthy analysis during day one is why I put him here.
kitaman27 - Similar to layabout, I have liked a lot of what he has to say, but I feel like he has held himself separate from the conversation, which bothers me.
Scummy People
zarepath
TranceStorm - Dude might just be lynch bait, but I really don't like his play.
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On March 19 2013 15:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
I see definite differences in his play that I noted; just because he stands up to one person disagreeing with the town circle idea is not enough.
His regular town play he is much more methodical, he pushes his reads constantly and as Mocsta noted, isn't afraid of trying crazy shit if he thinks it might benefit the town.
That's fine. Like I said, I haven't looked into his meta at all. I have never played with him, nor read a single one of his games.
My points still stand for me until I do. I'll rehash: 1) seems to be genuinely trying to figure out the game, with solid analysis posts on a couple of players (even though I disagree with his reads) 2) posts flow naturally and like they aren't constructed, like a newbie town who isn't afraid to just type rather than a newbie scum who is always checking himself to make sure he isn't fucking up and 3) was willing to stand up to a major player in his very first post
I'll read through some of his other games tomorrow though.
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On March 19 2013 15:56 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 15:51 WaveofShadow wrote:
You want a solid read spelled out for you? Fine. I don't think Geript is scum. I have null-leaning town.
Thats the thing. I was never talking about Geript? I was talking about BH logs, and the impact on my read on BH... how is this not clear?
Because you were talking about the logs and Geript a lot in the same post. Sorry it wasn't clear to me.
If I had to say one way the other I'd lean town on BH. The differences people have been coming up with in the thread don't seem that big to me, and I'm certainly not 100% of VE's scumclaim against him.
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EPT
