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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
As for the feeling like my posts are 'storytelling' I'm not sure how to respond because it is pretty vague. Maybe you mean that I like to paint things I comment on with the motivation or perspective I think corresponds. If that is the case then I don't see what is so scummy. @Trance - You support lynching me, but until you actually get more involved in the thread or make a case with examples to refute, I feel no pressure from you. At least Vivax was trying to get people to look into/switch onto me. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Something that has been bothering me for a while now is how zarepath has been put on the back-burner. Similar to how people are dealing with Coag but with much less reason. With the exception of Vivax, nobody has really defending zare. It is like everyone took a look at the points against zare and said, "yeah, that does look bad, let's move on". Am I alone in thinking that it is suspicious that there was so little opposition to us pushing zare, yet it gained so little traction? Obviously some townies just prefer their own choice and are going to push it. But I can't shake the feeling that zare is getting pushed off the consideration table, not because he is a worse candidate, but because scum are invested in changing the focus. I know that above paragraph isn't super logical, it is my intuition. But when I pair it with the points made earlier by myself and scib I definitely want to lynch zarepath today. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
This Town Ain't Big Enough VT NMMXXXVII VT NMMXXXVI VT And if you dig really far back you get his 1 scum game, which also happens to be the first game I played on TL as well. I don't know how well his scum meta would have held up as this game is more than a year old (Jan. 2012), and he has played a fair bit since. NMMIII Goon | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 18 2013 11:12 GreYMisT wrote: Again, if I have to die so be it. the best I can do is say that I think goodkarma should be lynched. After GK I think waveofShadow should be looked into, followed by testsubject. These are my feelings at the moment. This martyr junk is really annoying. It is pure WIFOM bait and GreY has to know that. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 18 2013 11:43 sciberbia wrote: Kitaman, do you have an opinion on zarepath? Also DYH, did you find anything interesting in zarepath's meta? I guess I'll go make a votecount myself. Seems like we are between zarepath and greymist tho. I did find some interesting corroborating evidence in his meta, but I also ran into a some frustration in the form of his old scum game that I can't decide whether or not is a good heuristic. I can't really compare activity between his past games and this one because we know that he can't be as active on weekends, and that has cut down his post count for this day 1. What I looked at was tone. Hopeless, Scib, and I all separately took issue with the tone of zarepath's posts. Hopeless thought that he seemed like he was looking for things to say, stances to take. Scib thought that his heart wasn't in it, that he was producing generic pro-town advice to fake being town. I said that I felt like his scumhunting felt shallow, that he was shuffling players into his suspicions using silly categories. That kind of critique could not be made of the day1 posts of those 3 town games I linked earlier. In those games his tone is very active, even when he is uncertain (Clicky). Note that in that post his tone is completely different than what we have seen in this game, it looks like he isn't just commenting, he is participating. The one big thing I would draw your attention to in that post is that he states, "My reads are all very close to null at this point on everyone. ". At this point in that game he has even fewer solid reads than he has shown in this one. And yet, his tone is so incredibly superior. The frustration comes with his really old scum game. Some things fit: the posting of generic pro-town advice, the passive tone in a lot of his posts. Other things do not: the bold strokes of suggesting an rng lynch right off the bat, the hard defense of the day1 townie lynch, and the way he responds to slOosh's case. I can't decide whether or not to throw out this game because of it's age or to leave it in there and just have it be a non-alignment indicative piece of evidence. tl;dr - I think zarepath's meta supports him being scum this game mainly by analyzing tone. (PS. Please check me on all this, I don't want to be screwed by confirmation bias.) | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 18 2013 12:21 geript wrote: Sidenote: how do you find the games someone's been in? Just by manually looking into all the games or is there another way? I go to their profile, click posts, then work back through them, any mafia title you find where the person posts more than 10-20 times they probably played in, just clicky and check the filter list. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
- I am still confident in my zarepath read from day 1, but that has been rehashed enough already, and it seems fruitless to pursue that further until there is more content or until we get to day2. - WOS hadn't really caught my eye as particularly suspicious until he started responding to post-flip pressure. I found that particularly scummy (something I will get into in my next post). - Ryu deserves a good bit of consideration. Remember when BH was attacking TPS for his tunnel on Coag, an unproductive target, and thought that he was using that tunnel to avoid other topics/being constructive? Well that is exactly what Ryu did day1, and it is a scummy trait. He pointed out 'fishy-ness' in the interaction between Sandro and GreY, speculated that they might both be scum, and never moved on from there. He pushed Sandro until Sandro's afk was explained, then he made a case on GreY. A case that, while described by a few people as 'good', contained 2 blatant misrepresentations+ Show Spoiler [Misrepresentations] + Misrepresentation #1: At no point does GreY refer to his "gotcha" moment on GK as a trap. Someone else described it that way, and it stuck. As someone doing a PBPA on GreY, Ryu should have seen this, but he didn't. Instead he runs with this 'setting a trap' mentality as something scummy GreY did, when GreY never actually showed that behavior. Lazy case making. Misrepresentation #2: Ryu describes GreY's response to GK as "nothing more than OMGUS", which it absolutely wasn't. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 19 2013 03:16 WaveofShadow wrote: Yeah Vivax I don't see how you're so certain you're getting lynched tomorrow. It's all WIFOM. If your reads are accurate then if they lynch you they risk exposing your reads as accurate. If they're not accurate they can lynch and try to make people think your reads are accurate. It's null. As for you asking absolutely everyone about all your 5 people, I really think you should be focusing; it's too much this early. One at a time. Like, which of the five do YOU feel we should be focused on today and why? Zarepath? Wowwy Wow Wow. WOS just revealed he knows Vivax is town. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 19 2013 05:34 RyuSuzaku wrote: well, that sucks. I was pretty convinced GM was scum given how suspicious he was acting. Pretty disappointing play from him, especially given his incredibly strong role. Obviously I was wrong, but I'm town and I had completely valid reasons for attacking GM. 1. This is completely false. I did not vocalize any of my other reads because they were not as sure as greymist. The longer I looked at the interaction between greymist and sandroba, the more I became sure that greymist was scum. I chose to ignore sandroba because he was going to be replaced-there's not much reason to attack a person you know will not even be around, and whose scummy traits were probably not motivated by alignment to begin with. My vote was on sandroba for quite a while until the replacement was announced (though it's not in the voting thread because I was not aware of it) 2. Secondly, simply because greymist didn't literally call it a trap doesn't mean it was a trap. If you want to argue semantics, by all means, go ahead. Your point is moot, given that greymist himself said the words "Perfect. I was waiting for this!" Given that he was expecting such a reaction, it's only reasonable to assume he was trying to trap a scum. So he "never" showed that behavior, eh? This is not a misrepresentation. This is you looking for something where nothing exists. 3. It was nothing more than OMGUS, unless you can find a better reason greymist had for attacking GK. None of his points were substantiated and I showed exactly why I think GK is town. This is convenient ignorance of what I posted. In fact, it's ignorance of almost everything that happened surrounding GK and GM. GM did not attack GK until GK showed suspicion of GM. That's textbook definition of OMGUS. 4. Lastly, how exactly is pushing a case and seeking consolidation on a chaotic day 1 scummy? If that's your definition of scummy, I fear to see your other reads. Sadly I can't tell whether you are saying these things as a scum trying to push responsibility for a mislynch, or as a townie who is just bad. I never assumed sandro to be town nor did I ever strongly feel him to be scum. I voted him to begin with to pressure him into explaining his reads. He obviously never did because he was afk the entire time. I ignored him after the replacement was announced. IIRC this was before the replacement was announced. I simply was surprised that a player would ignore sandro's accusation, given that he is widely accepted to be a very good town player. I misinterpreted the situation. Why are you cherry picking me? Are you scum? 1. - I am quite interested in what these other, not vocalized, reads are. Please elaborate. 2-3. - Originally I thought I had caught you here by getting you to state that GreY's attack on GK was both a trap and OMGUS, which wouldn't make any sense. HOWEVER, I decided to look back at your original case again to make sure I got my facts straight and it turns out that I made a mistake in my original assertions against you. And, because of my mistake, it revealed an inconsistency much larger than the simple contradiction I first mentioned. "Secondly, simply because greymist didn't literally call it a trap doesn't mean it wasn't a trap. If you want to argue semantics, by all means, go ahead. Your point is moot, given that greymist himself said the words "Perfect. I was waiting for this!" In Ryu's original case, he says twice that he doesn't believe the 'trap' explanation for GreY's post. He classifies GreY as opportunistic and picking on the easy targets. I was wrong when I said that Ryu had misrepresented GreY by endorsing the trap explanation. Yet Ryu doesn't point out the obvious flaw in how I was representing him, he accepts it and defends it. That is not the action of a tunneling townie who has been challenged on his past case. That is the action of a scum who is reacting to pressure. 4. - I think it is amusing that you convicted GreY on OMGUS, yet you bite back at both me and VE with "maybe you're scum" as soon as we pressure you. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 19 2013 07:26 RyuSuzaku wrote: it obviously was a trap in retrospect because grey flipped town. I didn't believe it was a trap at the time. How is this contradictory at all? Grey said it was a trap-you claim it wasn't. I disbelieved that it was a trap, that he wanted it to look like one, but that it truly wasn't. He flipped town = he intended it to be a trap. No contradiction here. My statement of confusion over you and VE is me questioning my reads, because both of you are grossly misrepresenting me (you more than VE). I'm not going to post my reads at night, no use. You make a good point. I'll walk back my accusation a bit and do some more thinking. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
Pre-Day Reads Town BH and GK - I believe the claim as presented by BH. Scib - Person I have agreed with the most, constructive. Vivax - I haven't agreed with him much of the time, but the way he has behaved and pursued his reads looks very townie to me. DP - This one is harder to explain, it is more of a gut read. Likely Town VE - The last time I nailed VE to the wall as scum (when I was vig) the thing that pushed him over the top for me was how he seemed to distance himself from the thread conversation. His play thus far has been very involved and spotlight grabbing which is the opposite of that game, Paranoia mafia. I am not a big fan of how he has been jumping around to different lynch targets though. Hopeless - His posts were few and short, but I liked them. Ryu - He defended himself well and like a townie when I pressured him. Keep an eye on him and make sure he is contributing on multiple subjects. People I Found Myself Agreeing With, IE The Dangerous Ones (if they are scum) Mr. Wiggles - Seems to have some pretty good analysis, but I remain cautious of him. layabout - Was one of my strongest townreads early on, and could probably fit very comfortably in my 'Likely Town' category. His lack of any lengthy analysis during day one is why I put him here. kitaman27 - Similar to layabout, I have liked a lot of what he has to say, but I feel like he has held himself separate from the conversation, which bothers me. Scummy People zarepath TranceStorm - Dude might just be lynch bait, but I really don't like his play. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On March 19 2013 16:07 Mocsta wrote: Im not following? Its all WIFOM right? If you want more WIFOM, Kei just caught VE in hydra.... Yes, my thinking could be reduced to WIFOM but here it is anyways. Scum priorities for NKs tend to fall along what threatens them the most balanced with a risk/reward assessment. If zare is scum, then the people threatening him right now are myself, Scib, and Vivax (off the top of my head). Vivax might be slightly less of a threat, as people have repeatedly ignored some of the things he says. But both Scib and I are extremely hard lynches at the moment, being considered townie by practically all of the thread (if I have read correctly). This makes Scib and I, and to a lesser degree, Vivax, logical targets IF zarepath is scum, and IF he was feeling the pressure. BH is another logical target if his roleclaim is true (I think it is, but can't be 100% sure). Now consider possible Medic protections. BH has claimed blue which could likely pull a medic's attention. Scib is probably the most townie and biggest threat in general, also a good chance of protection. But that still leaves myself and Vivax as pretty safe targets. Yes, this is WIFOM, but if I was scum this is how I would sift possible targets IF I was worried about zare getting lynched D2. Instead we get a Keirathi kill. A good kill because he is a solid town player, but by killing a replacement player who had very little time to put forth his opinions my guess is that scum is less worried about the track town is currently on, and more worried about a new voice providing a course correction. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I need to get to bed, good night. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
"Okay so the hosts are dragging their feet with setting up the Mason QT(So BH made one himself) so I'll drop some stuff in here(here being the QT BH just made) since I have to step out for a moment." It is far more probable than your theory that BH made a QT, the hosts were made aware of it, and they just stuck with that QT for the BH-GK masoning. The slip you found simply isn't. On March 20 2013 01:46 WaveofShadow wrote: Ok found it. It's the timestamps that bother me. Between BH and GK, (the ones Vivax suspects of being a scumteam-fabricated QT/logs) every single post has a fairly decent size berth in between; the smallest one being 3 minutes right at the end, the next smallest being 5 minutes (2-lines) and every one after that being 12 min or longer in between posts. This means that it's POSSIBLE that they were fabricating these posts in the scum QT in between. This isn't possible in the VE-BH logs, as there is evidence of free-flowing quick conversation taking place with multiple 2-minute spaces in between posts from both of them. Also of course the fact that they didn't even start contacting each other until much later in the day either means a) they were planning in the scum QT b) BH didn't send his mason request till late (can be a subset of (a), null) c) he's telling the truth and DrH didn't set up the QT until later. The post where Vivax outlines the slip makes option (c) seem VERY odd so the scummier options seem more likely here. Now this could all be Wave's Conspiracy Theories™ but I figure it's worth putting out there to see what people think. @WOS You are supposing that BH, GK, and possibly VE all coordinated enough to create these false logs, yet you don't think they could have changed the timestamps to make the exchange look more genuine? If you think the logs are faked, analyzing the timestamps like you are is worthless. | ||
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