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Australia9388 Posts
[fluff]
Setup Speculation
Take with a grain of salt
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
This game is C9++, the page linked is for normal setup with JK/Vig/Mason etc.
This is the same probabilities, jsut replacing the blue roles (I believe, only host knows for certain).
Now, with Sylencia death; we know there is an RB; and we know there is SK.
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+ Show Spoiler [2 scum team] +
If we assume team is 2 scum + SK,
The two options are
TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, SK - as this doesnt allow blues.
OR
TTTTT = Goon + GF, SK - as Sylencia was RB, this doesn't hold.
2 man scum team is impossible based on the RB claim.
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The 3 man scum setups with SK =
T = Goon + RB + GF, SK
If setup is "T", then there are 6 blue letters rolled => approx 3-6 blues rolled.
I am not certain how the host handles multiple letter rolls (like VV; as all vig are one-shot)
OR
TTT = 2 Goons + RB, SK
If setup is "TTT" then there are 4 blue letters rolled => approx 2-4 blues rolled.
(based on the 4 VTs flipping.. this situation is more likely)
As 3-6 Blues, indicates 3-6 VTs; which is starting to look unlikely based on flips
So far the flips: 4 VT, 1 Blue, 1 SK
Lets assume 13 players
3 scum
1 sk
2-4 blues
5-7 VTs
This leaves us now with: 1-3 blues and 3-1 VTs.
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What is the point
Based on likelihood and Sylencia RB claim; I believe we are dealing with 2 Goons + 1 RB.
Secondly, there is a chance there are 3 VTs, and only 1 Blue left (who may not even be a vet)
I think we need to shut up shop this cycle, and not let scum figure out who *ISN'T* a vet.
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Australia9388 Posts
On February 19 2013 11:39 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2013 11:35 cDgCorazon wrote:
Zare most of these are just discussion questions. The only one where I'd say he thinks the person is scum is the one about WB.
You're just reaching with this argument. Not officially, but you don't say things like "Why not, you worried I'll find out you're scum?" to promote a good town environment day 1. This isn't a case; this is backing up my claim that Mocsta suggests is a false one.
I think you're getting completely muddled by early day1 banter to promote discussion.
Its how the game works; just like my comment to Sn0_Man. If you think that post to him is indicative of me having a firm scum read on him 2hrs into the game; you're grasping as straws MAJORLY.
warbaby was the first guy I genuinely followed up with; as he was my first *actual* read.
The rest of what you posted (other than Geript) is foreplay... and you know it.
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Australia9388 Posts
EBWOP
Actuallly what you quoted on Geript was foreplay.
I later had a genuine read on Geript; but for whatever reason you were only focused on play from the frist 12 or so hours - so didnt include it.
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Alright, I'm going to take a majority of this night cycle off due to the fact that I feel like others (aka everyone not name Mocsta and WB) need to step up their game and actually help. I'll be back to post my thoughts before the deadline and join in the discussion at least 2-3 hours before the deadline.
WB and Mocsta- Keep doing what you guys are doing. I appreciate the activeness.
Sn0 and Zare- You two need to make up for your absences (especially Zare). Help contribute to the scum hunt and prevent this town from becoming a ghost town.
Sevryn- Make cases. Simple enough.
Mandalor- I'm sorry for what happened with your RL issues, but I know you have the potential to be a really good asset to town D4 (I've seen flashes of it in your earlier posts). It's never too late to redeem yourself in this game.
@all: I've heard a lot of talk about how I'm scum (especially from Sevryn). I'm challenging you all now: If you think I'm scum, make the case during N3, and make it with a lot of time to spare so that I have a chance to refute it on N3 and so there is plenty of time to talk about it. Give us some different reasons than what TestsubjectGeript had, and maybe we can get something productive done.
Have fun.
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I think that my head is getting too much into WIFOM. So I am going to take a step back and look at things that we ABSOLUTELY KNOW about the mafia.
1. They killed geript N1
2. They all voted for an ObviousOne lynch Day 2
3. They killed TestSubject, confirmed Tracker, N2
4. They RB'd Sylencia N1 and N2
What are possible extrapolations from this?
1. Geript is an interesting choice. I personally considered him to be a productive analyst, but I was fairly alone in that assessment -- most people assumed he had been vigi-shot for lurking. What are potential scum motivations for killing him? A) They don't know the blue roles, and want to avoid a save by targeting a less-obvious player; B) He read as a blue role; C) He read as a threat; D) They wanted to keep the active players in play.
I've usually seen scum target the most active analyst that isn't scummy unless there's a blue claim. Why didn't scum target Sn0, Mocsta, Cora, myself, or Warbaby? Well, Warbaby already had a good amount of suspicion; I had only contributed a fake case up to that point, really; and based on the final vote tally, perhaps scum was plenty happy with the town environment that the actives had cooked up.
We can get into WIFOM here but there really isn't anything productive that we can suggest at this point. So let's just look at geript:
Votes Warbaby
Attacks RNG and wants to move on from it
Criticizes Cora for his tone
Criticizes Sn0 for getting into an unproductive discussion on English that Sn0 admitted was unproductive
Says he likes LAL
Unvotes WB
Calls Warbaby town
Calls out Mocsta for throwing attacks everywhere and jumping on the first one that gains traction
Puts more pressure on Mocsta and votes for him
Breaks down my WoS case and then votes for WoS
Calls out Cora and Mocsta for a "my way or the highway" approach to the game
Calls out Sylencia for bad logic; asks why Cora and Mocsta DIDN'T
Pressures WoS more
Calls out Cora for tunneling and "let's lynch a loud voice" logic
Two final cases are a big one against Cora and a summary one against WoS
What else do we know about scum's N1 geript kill? They didn't know that WaveofShadow, geript's Day 1 vote, was going to die that night. Geript was uniquely on the attack on WaveofShadow; but to a certain extent, he was also uniquely on the attack on Cora and, to a lesser extent, Mocsta.
Geript was not a sheep, stuck to his guns, and called BS where he saw it. That alone may have been enough for scum to kill him, in addition to the fact that he probably wasn't going to be protected.
2. The ObviousOne lynch -- whether they knew OO was a vigilante or an SK, scum wanted him lynched either way. It's difficult to parse out the town motivations for lynching OO from the scum motivations, but let me put it this way -- scum would not want anyone to consider leaving OO alive, especially with scum knowing they can't night kill him easily. This is their best chance for killing OO.
Mocsta was the first to vote for him, and called him "Mr. SK" despite the fact he could be scum.
I suggest OO might night kill for us in exchange for his life
Sevryn calls Mocsta out for that point
Mocsta brings up pros/cons for keeping the SK alive on a leash; suggests lynch
Cora doesn't want to overcomplicate things and so wants to just lynch him
Mocsta hopes his post convinces others it's not worthwhile to keep the SK alive
Sn0 identifies the inherent problems with lynching an SK instead of a scum read, but thinks it's better in the end
WB doesn't want to negotiate with him at all
Cora doesn't see why we can't vote him off later (at the end of the day, not right now)
Sn0 brings up the possibility of leashing the SK based on his clear read of him as an SK
WB delves into all the possibilities there, worried about how we can't mislynch after lynching OO
3. Testsubject night kill. Scum absolutely had to target Testsubject here, but if they didn't have an RB, they may have done something else because of Sylencia's role-blocked claims (which would mean there's a JK, who would obviously protect Testsubject). The fact that they targeted and killed Testsubject means not only that there's not a JK, but that scum knew that there's not a JK -- which gives a lot of credence to Sylencia's RB claim. In retrospect, we as town should have realized this and not lynched him. Unfortunately there is not much else to learn from this; it is a clear and obvious scum move that implicates no one.
4. Sylencia RBs. I find it interesting that their N1 moves were a geript kill and a Sylencia RB. RBing Sylencia had the effect of making town believe that he was lying and scum trying to take credit for it. Sylencia was one of MANY targets Day 1, and one of the more obvious lurkers. Scum may have RB'd him for a few different reasons; A) Scum thought he was blue; B) Scum wanted town to believe he was a fake-claiming lurker, making him the most obvious lurker to pressure/target; C) Scum wanted to RB someone they thought would also be JK'd so that the town JK assumes there is no scum RB, and saw Sylencia as a likely JK target.
I find A and B to be the most likely, particularly B because the result would have gone nicely with Motivation B (ie, it worked, after a fashion).
The Day 2 RB on Sylencia either suggests that mafia believe that he was a blue that was stopped N1 (there were no other JK claims, no vigi-kills, and no Watcher claims), or that they wanted us to believe he was fake-claiming two days in a row and that there was no RB (because surely the scum RB would target a more blue-looking target, right?). I can see either of these motivations being the case.
But if scum wanted us to believe he was fake claiming RBs, that suggests a few things; A) Scum saw a potential mislynch here and just went for it; B) Scum wanted Sylencia to be the lurker that stood out the most on a day that everyone is clearly going to be talking about the Three Lurkers; C) Sylencia had valuable reads and insight and needed to be shut down.
Looking through Sylencia's filter, he does a good amount of blue speculation (potential sign of being blue?), thinks WB is either scum or vigi, votes WB Day 1, says that he's not blue, mentions that Sn0 considered him to be either blue or scum and perhaps that's why scum has been RBing him, then most of his final energy is defending himself.
His only real pressure read was WB; and there was speculation that he was blue. I can see scum RBing him twice just because of the possibility of him being blue.
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On February 19 2013 11:41 Mocsta wrote:Secondly, there is a chance there are 3 VTs, and only 1 Blue left (who may not even be a vet) Show nested quote +I think we need to shut up shop this cycle, and not let scum figure out who *ISN'T* a vet.
If there are 3 scum and 4 non-scum, the game would be over already unless there IS a vet.
I am going to operate on the assumption that we'll be playing on Day 4, either because of scum hitting a vet or because there are only 2 scum.
I'm going to try to do my own math on the setup to determine if there really CAN'T be just 2 scum.
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Based on mocsta's speculation, and given that we have 7 living players, the hope now is that either: The game isn't really close to what mocsta is speculating and we still have 2 scum, OR mafia shoots a vet (that we don't even know we have)?
Not sure I like the chances here. I'm re-reading important parts of the game but I'm not sure I see the value in tossing out any observations just yet.
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Why do you two always post in tandem and then go lurking for long periods of time? This isn't the first time it's happened. It's so fishy...
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I think it's called time zones and weekends, my friend.
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Considering my time/participation has been limited, I'm going to contribute/analyze while I have the time (right now). I think that getting mroe people to participate in scum hunting is more valuable than the information that it may give to scum for their N3 actions.
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On February 20 2013 00:27 zarepath wrote:
I think it's called time zones and weekends, my friend.
First of all, it's Tuesday.
Second of all, you two are grouping your activity together and not actually getting anything done (compared to me/Warbaby/Mocsta). My patience has worn out on both of you, and the constant tandem posting makes me wonder if you two are hiding something or not...
Lastly, saying that you are going to participate now, when things are desperate, suggests that you are only deciding to help when the town has a very slim chance of winning. That, in itself, is a huge scum tell.
I'll be back in a few hours to make a big case.
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On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote:
Second of all, you two are grouping your activity together and not actually getting anything done (compared to me/Warbaby/Mocsta).
Oh, yes? What "anything done" have you three accomplished, other than mislynching twice?
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On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 00:27 zarepath wrote:
I think it's called time zones and weekends, my friend. First of all, it's Tuesday.
In America, Monday was a holiday.
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On February 20 2013 00:39 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote:
Second of all, you two are grouping your activity together and not actually getting anything done (compared to me/Warbaby/Mocsta). Oh, yes? What "anything done" have you three accomplished, other than mislynching twice?
I'm sorry, you did not help us at all any of those days. You've been sitting back and have been ok with the mislynches, instead of revealing the information that you did before Sylencia was lynched.
You voted for Sylencia as well.
We've been the backbone of this town, while you two have sat here and not only made this game ridiculously boring, but ridiculously easy for the scum to sit around and hide.
If we have 5 lurkers, the scum have no qualms about continuing to lurk because they won't stand out as a lurker if 2-3 townies are doing the same thing.
The lack of activity from you and Sn0 has been a huge factor into why we are in such deep shit. Did you want this to happen?
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I'm not saying we're not in a horrible situation. But it's a heck of a thing to call someone out for not contributing at all, unlike Us Three Untouchable Mafia Gods Who Have Mislynched At Every Opportunity, right after I contribute a post full of content. It's almost as if the fact that I am contributing is your evidence for me NOT contributing. And what happened to you chilling until the deadline? Are you only lurking so that you can criticize anyone who posts?
I'm going to keep trying to work things out today. If you have a CASE that you believe will lead us to definitely finding scum tomorrow, then go for it. Otherwise, BACK OFF and let me do what you're complaining that I'm not doing.
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On February 20 2013 00:46 cDgCorazon wrote:
The lack of activity from you and Sn0 has been a huge factor into why we are in such deep shit. Did you want this to happen?
Possible, but unlikely. I'm not particularly sure what I was gonna contribute given the current theme of this town which is: I can say whatever I want and the lynches boil down to popularity contests. I'm not actually good at finding scum in this game, but I will say that both OO and TS, who knew they were gonna die the next action (lynch then NK) both tabbed me as the towniest player in the game. While this may have been before my long AFK period, I like to think that if ALL of town could be as blatantly town as I, it would be a lot easier to nail the scum. Process of elimination and all that.
That doesn't really excuse everything, but at the same time if every town played my game we would probably be very near victory by now so take that for what you will.
I'm unsure why you think that me and ZP posting at similar times is even remotely relevant? We both live in NA.
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I feel the same was Corazon does.
For 96 hours, only 3 out of (original) 13 players actually played the game properly, and 2 halfway. That is bullshit and the game is pretty much ruined already.
Zarepath, Sn0_man, how would you like it if I stopped posting for 96 hours? Apparently I can without breaking the rules.
The weekend is when you have fun. Mafia is a game. You have fun playing games. If you do not have fun playing mafia, then you're doing it wrong. If you do not have fun on a 3 day weekend, you are doing it wrong. If whatever you do with your family for an entire 3-day weekend is more fun than mafia, the you are doing it wrong.
You are either doing it wrong by being a dull person who does not understand how to have fun, or you are doing it wrong by signing up for mafia when it's either not a game you enjoy playing, or you have much more interesting things to do with your time.
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EPT
