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Day 1 Vote Analysis
On February 13 2013 09:05 Dandel Ion wrote:![[image loading]](https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2752616335/4b3ae0f60a4556ba1b2b4088d779492b_normal.jpeg) Count Vote:Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor WaveofShadow (1): geript Macheji (1): WaveofShadow geript (1): Mocsta glurio (1): Sevryn Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man Mandalor (1): zarepath Not Voting (5): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia, cDgCorazon Currently, Sylencia is set to be lynched!
~1 hour remaining until deadline.
Remember you have to vote!
I am bringing this part up, before the final tally, because this is where Sylencia would have been lynched, and scum knew that Sylencia was not scum (and so do we, now). At this point, do scum necessarily want to hammer this home? Do they wait back and see if someone else will be the next vote? With so many 1-votes, I imagine it's hard for scum to decide what to do. At least one scum has voted at this point, because the only other person not on the board whose alignment we don't already know is Corazon.
What happens next?
Mocsta unvotes geript and goes for Glurio on this point:
On February 13 2013 09:14 Mocsta wrote:OK Glurio responded basically said.. his contributions are better than the other lurkers because Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 09:02 glurio wrote:
I know my alignement, don't know theres, i'm town. ##Unvote
##Vote: GlurioEven bad town are trying to contribute, its just they dont know how to do it effectively. (Look at WoS) That you can not even discriminate between your contributions and others, suggests you're not even trying. Guess what, thats scummy as.
Despite the fact that earlier, Mocsta had said the following:
On February 13 2013 08:07 Mocsta wrote:
I recommend we have 2 lynch candidates
i.e. 1 agreed representative for the lurkers
1 agreed representative for the actives
We never "agreed" but Sylencia is a representative for the lurkers that is currently set to be lynched. After preaching consolidation, why is Mocsta voting for Glurio at this point in time? It's true that about a page or two before this vote switch, he attacked Glurio, so it is not entirely out of the blue. But it IS inconsistent with his consolidation strategy. It is really only worth thinking about this because we all now know that Glurio was town, and Mocsta was the momentum for the Glurio lynch.
The next vote:
On February 13 2013 09:23 cDgCorazon wrote:
Lynching Glurio would go a long way in either proving or disproving my case towards WB. His town claim is even stupider than WB's as well. There's not much else to say.
##Vote: Glurio
So now Cora has put the third (and, in the end, final) vote on Glurio. His reasoning is incredibly suspect and I wish I had seen this earlier. Note that he is the last person to vote, and he only votes after Mocsta has switched onto Glurio. While Mocsta's switch onto Glurio is at least backed up by an attack pages earlier where Mocsta warned that Glurio was earning his ire, Cora's stance toward Glurio was not as clear or built-up, and his reasoning for switching is pretty awful -- in order to prove or disprove his theory on WB? I don't recall him following up on this and saying, "Well, this now means that WB MUST be town/scum," his entire reason for voting for Glurio. However, we can say that Cora was only trying to do what Mocsta had asked for earlier -- consolidation.
On February 13 2013 09:29 Dandel Ion wrote:
glurio (3): Sevryn, Mocsta, cDgCorazon
Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor
WaveofShadow (1): geript
Macheji (1): WaveofShadow
Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man
Mandalor (1): zarepath
Not Voting (4): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia
Currently, glurio is set to be lynched!
~half an hour remaining until deadline.
Remember you have to vote!
Now there are two people left to vote (4, really, but in retrospect and realistically only 2). No matter how they vote, either Sylencia or Glurio will be mislynched -- a mafia victory. Because we know who all these people were, we can deduce that mafia have all voted by this point.
Because of Corazon and Mocsta's votes, mafia is guaranteed a mislynch unless multiple people switch votes at the last minute AND the two final voters vote elsewhere.
Next, WB votes Sevryn for this Glurio wagon (not exactly a productive vote) but doesn't try to get people off of the wagon, and Glurio votes for Corazon for sheeping onto the Glurio wagon.
The final vote is Sylencia voting for WB, contributing nothing.
Considering where things stood, I find Corazon, Mocsta, and WB's votes to be the most suspicious coming out of Day 1, now knowing what we know. The question is -- if Cora or Mocsta are scum, why didn't they vote for Sylencia when there were already two votes on him? Perhaps a fear of looking too bandwagonny, and it's not as if any scum were in trouble themselves at the time. However, Cora's vote on Glurio would be exactly as bandwagonny (if not moreso) than if he had simply voted for Sylencia when there were two votes there.
WB's vote accomplishes nothing and goes a ways toward ensuring that either Sylencia or Glurio are mislynched.
I am curious as to anyone else's thoughts on these votes.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 20 2013 01:00 warbaby wrote:
I feel the same was Corazon does.
For 96 hours, only 3 out of (original) 13 players actually played the game properly, and 2 halfway. That is bullshit and the game is pretty much ruined already.
Zarepath, Sn0_man, how would you like it if I stopped posting for 96 hours? Apparently I can without breaking the rules.
The weekend is when you have fun. Mafia is a game. You have fun playing games. If you do not have fun playing mafia, then you're doing it wrong. If you do not have fun on a 3 day weekend, you are doing it wrong. If whatever you do with your family for an entire 3-day weekend is more fun than mafia, the you are doing it wrong.
You are either doing it wrong by being a dull person who does not understand how to have fun, or you are doing it wrong by signing up for mafia when it's either not a game you enjoy playing, or you have much more interesting things to do with your time.
WB, legit concerns, but they don't relate to the game right now. Let's talk afterwards.
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EBWOP: I messed up the last part of my analysis -- it was Sylencia voting for WB, not WB throwing away a vote. Please ignore my last comments about WB's votes.
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That's fine. I don't want to get on your ass about it like I did to Acid. Real life stuff is real life stuff, and I hope everything is OK. Especially for Mandalor, if he's telling the truth it sounds like his real life sucks pretty hard right now 
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Finally, the plan came to fruition! Miss Piggy had given Kermit his very last chance at redemption. He had refused. Her wrath was complete!
The Muppet Show will never be the same.
warbaby as Kermit the Frog (Vanilla Townie) was wumped once too often.
Mandalor as Waldorf (Goon), Sevryn as Statler (Goon) and Mocsta as Miss Piggy (Roleblocker) emerge victorious and create a successful internet spinoff!
zarepath as the Swedish Chef (Vanilla Townie) was relegated to the Cooking Channel.
sn0_man as the Newsman (Nosy Neighbour) cannot keep up with modern technology.
cDgCorazon as Sam the Eagle (Veteran) committed suicide in this amoral society.
+ Show Spoiler [role pms] +Your are Kermit the Frog (Vanilla Townie). You are the star of the muppet show. Unfortunately, you are slightly at a loss in the current situation, because years on the stage have not prepared you for this. Sometimes it’s just not easy being green. You have your voice and your vote! Use both well. You win with town.
You are the Swedish Chef (Vanilla Townie). Urn dee bom derk big disaster. Moo dee bing bong urk voice unde vote. Bork! Bork! Bork! You win with town.
You are The Newsman (Nosy Neighbour). This is a Muppet News Flash! Tonight there was a … ! Well, that was that. You’d better figure out what happened, so you can report it! Every night you visit a random witness. This is ultimately pointless, but potential watchers and trackers don’t know that and see you entering the witness’ house! Your other powers include your vote and your voice. Use them well. You win with town.
You are Sam the Eagle (Veteran). You stand for honor, and morals, and integrity! But right now you stand for justice above all else. American justice! Brought down on those hoodlums who thought to befoul the beatific muppet show! As a fighter for justice you are strong and powerful. You will survive a nightly attack upon your life (but not two). In addition, you may use your voice and your vote to fight for freedom (or to lynch scummers). You win with town.
You are Statler (Mafia Goon). After all those years of being locked in that theatre box, you are free! You may be old, but you are more cynical than ever. The muppets tortured you for long enough with their awful puns and slapstick jokes. It is time for payback! You and your team may kill one muppet every night. You must decide together who performs the kill. You win when you outnumber town (and there is no SK alive), or this is inevitable.
You are Waldorf (Mafia Goon). After all those years of being locked in that theatre box, you are free! You may be old, but you are more cynical than ever. The muppets tortured you for long enough with their awful puns and slapstick jokes. It is time for payback! You and your team may kill one muppet every night. You must decide together who performs the kill. You win when you outnumber town (and there is no SK alive), or this is inevitable.
You are Miss Piggy (Mafia Roleblocker). You were never appreciated as the star you are. Kermit is not worthy of a diva like you. You should be running this show! Well, if there’s one thing you can do for your team it is to keep some hapless muppet occupied all night while your companions go about their business. And that business is revenge! Every night you may seduce a target. This blocks one night action (may block passive abilities). You and your team may kill one muppet every night. You must decide together who performs the kill. You win when you outnumber town (and there is no SK alive), or this is inevitable.
Scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/s4anwjnME7M9
Obs QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/89MuX6n5FQp6
Setup spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgRwUW7S2s2HdFpSWjRqcGpZTC1RXzJrRnpZRi1NLUE&usp=sharing
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hahahahahahaha GG all 
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Interesting. GGWP all.
I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup... 
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Hey, I don't get a N3 action? T_T
XD
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IMBA IMBA IMBA rofl.
I nominate Acrofales and Dandel Ion for Best Newbie Mafia Hosting Archon of 2013. That last flavor video was great lol
Also big thanks to the coaches.
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Yeah Cora I'm definitely avoiding games with you.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On February 20 2013 02:33 geript wrote:
Yeah Cora I'm definitely avoiding games with you.
hey! be nice, it's post-game
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On February 20 2013 02:28 warbaby wrote:
IMBA IMBA IMBA rofl.
I nominate Acrofales and Dandel Ion for Best Newbie Mafia Hosting Archon of 2013. That last flavor video was great lol
Also big thanks to the coaches.
I wrote nothing of this cuz i have no idea about the wuppets.
dis one is all on acro.
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On February 20 2013 02:25 Sn0_Man wrote:Interesting. GGWP all. I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup...
Why?
I thought it was fairly normal.
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If you want to see imbalanced setups, look at Jinglehell games :3
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If I wasn't knocked off N1 for no reason maybe my almost-vote-switch to Sevryn would have meant something. Bleah. Oh well at least I was somewhat vindicated.
Gg all!
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Also shit like this game is why you lynch lurkers.
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Policy lynches are the shit.
I dunno why people hate them so much.
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On February 20 2013 02:36 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 02:25 Sn0_Man wrote:Interesting. GGWP all. I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup... Why? I thought it was fairly normal.
Mislynch twice, lose on the spot.
Sure our analysis could have been better, but the fact is we basically have to let the SK live and hope he hits scum or else we just lose. Because 2 mislynches simply isn't enough space for town (especially newer towns).
I mean, we get super-lucky to have our tracker hit an anti-town role on his first guess, and we still are in basically unwinnable position from N1 on.
Maybe if our vet manned up and took a bullet somewhere? but even then scum had the RB to stop that.
It hurts more that we had a Harmful-to-town role on our side (me the nosy neighbor) and a dumbed-down power role (tracker) instead of medic/JK/cop. I dunno, I just felt like town never had a real chance in this game. Closer to 1/10 than 1/3. Admittedly I'm biased and fresh off a loss, but this is what it looks like right now
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On February 20 2013 02:50 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 02:36 Dandel Ion wrote:On February 20 2013 02:25 Sn0_Man wrote:Interesting. GGWP all. I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup... Why? I thought it was fairly normal. Mislynch twice, lose on the spot. Sure our analysis could have been better, but the fact is we basically have to let the SK live and hope he hits scum or else we just lose. Because 2 mislynches simply isn't enough space for town (especially newer towns). I mean, we get super-lucky to have our tracker hit an anti-town role on his first guess, and we still are in basically unwinnable position from N1 on. Maybe if our vet manned up and took a bullet somewhere? but even then scum had the RB to stop that. It hurts more that we had a Harmful-to-town role on our side (me the nosy neighbor) and a dumbed-down power role (tracker) instead of medic/JK/cop. I dunno, I just felt like town never had a real chance in this game. Closer to 1/10 than 1/3. Admittedly I'm biased and fresh off a loss, but this is what it looks like right now
Scum RB doesn't stop Vet. Vet is passive.
Since the SK only shot once (and as I understand it, also tried to hit scum), you can pretend it was a vig.
Vig hits townie.
3 (effective) mislynches.
Vet doesn't get shot.
It was kind of a worst-case scenario for town, but shit happens.
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Too many lurkers on both sides. People not listening whatsoever to each other. Negative atmosphere. Easy pickings.
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EPT
