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On February 13 2013 04:52 WaveofShadow wrote:
I feel like doing a full case on Sevryn right now but I have a midterm soon so I don't have the time to follow up. Will be back a few hours pre-vote.
Sevryn has been tunneling Glurio REAL hard all game. The only post not directed at Glurio since yesterday was one talking about how he wants to see more from lurkers like Mandalor when they have contributed far more than he has. His filter is one page long and the first few posts are all game theory crap. Not linking here because you can check the filter yourself; real easy read.
Now I don't like glurio this game either so I'm going to speculate a little.
I don't believe they are both scum. If they were both scum and Sevryn implicates glurio, then he is in danger of being lynched D1 due to lurker/scummy reads on him so far. I can't see him doing this and leaving it up to chance at the end of the day like he says. I don't believe this is a bus attempt either because it's a newbie game, and bussing is real big talk most of the time. I don't believe they are both good town either because each has posted 'just enough' to attempt to stay under radar while contributing absolutely nothing of value. Essentially I believe either Sevryn or glurio are scum right now, with another scum being one of the 0-post lurkers, Sylencia or geript as I had stated earlier.
So you think that:
One of Glurio/Sevyrn is scum
One of Sylencia/Geript/9bit/Macheji is scum
One of the rest is scum.
Why are you voting for a 1/4 chance when you could vote for a 1/2 chance (glurio/sevyrn)? Plus, I'm of the opinion that it should be fairly easy to lynch one of glurio/sevyrn if you make a realistic case.
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On February 13 2013 04:52 zarepath wrote:
Here's the thing -- we don't KNOW that he'll be replaced
Well if they aren't replaced then WoS is voting no-lynch which is NOT helping town
On February 13 2013 04:52 zarepath wrote:It is actually to scum's advantage for replacements to come in because we have less info on them if they ARE scum and have plenty of excuses to roll with, and if they're NOT scum town is still going to spend a bunch of energy wondering about this mysterious replacement when they come in.
Sure, but one of the most important parts of the day 1 lynch is to GENERATE INFORMATION. The voting is often very informative. If we all just vote for a 0-poster then we don't learn anything, and the player may as well have been modkilled + we have a no-lynch. Once again, this isn't helping town.
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I'll just say that voting for a non-poster doesn't necessarily not generate any information. But you have a point, and now I'm getting too deep into theory.
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Okay, the vote is in just four hours, yes?
I would really like everyone's opinion on warbaby. We certainly got away from him for a while, and he seemed less emotional, but I think we should all look at his filter again (I will be doing it, too), and decide if the second half of Day 1 changes how you see him for the first half of Day 1.
I would especially like to hear from 9-Bit, Mocheji, Sevryn, glurio, warbaby, Mandalor, and Sylencia.
I'll have my final read and vote before lynch time, hopefully early enough so that the last hours aren't insane.
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Yeah 4 hours.
I actually kinda like insane last hours, they lead to screw-ups which are often key to catching scum. But yeah, I intend on having my vote in decently ahead of lynch. I'll read up on warbaby but otherwise I like a sev/glurio lynch today. One of the two.
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Sev has been pretty consistent on his read on Glurio, and hasn't really bandwagoned at all except on my fake case. He also pointed out Mandalor.
Glurio defended WB as town, attacks Mocsta, did a big case on Sn0 (you) and then said he only did it because he was told to, and then said he only did it as a trap (?). He did go out of his way to pressure Mandalor, though.
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Well warbaby soft-blue claimed, so i don't think we can or should lynch him today.
He obviously made some terrible posts at the beginning of the day, but he did so last game too, also he soft-blue claimed last game to and turned out to be the doc.
Hes also very active so if he's scum he'll actually slip up sooner or later.
I'd prefer lynching one of the lurkier players, sevryn, syl or mandalor right now.
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On February 13 2013 06:21 glurio wrote:
I'd prefer lynching one of the lurkier players, sevryn, syl or mandalor right now.
Which one? Why?
I mean, I don't disagree, but you have 3 targets and I'm assuming you don't think that you have nailed the 3-man scumteam so there is reason to go further than "one of these 3".
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Just popping in to say that Mocsta last posted 6 hours ago, which is really weird. I assume he must sleep at least 6 hours a day, though.
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Right now i prefer either Mandalor or Sevryn. Depends on what they come forward with till the lynch.
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On February 13 2013 06:29 zarepath wrote:
Just popping in to say that Mocsta last posted 6 hours ago, which is really weird. I assume he must sleep at least 6 hours a day, though.
Warbaby's last post is quite a while ago (page 30 methinks?) as well if I didn't mess up his filter somehow. I still think it safe to say we will see both of them before lynch.
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I'll go grab something to eat and watch a movie. After that i'll be here for the pre-lynch craziness.
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On February 13 2013 06:21 glurio wrote:
Well warbaby soft-blue claimed, so i don't think we can or should lynch him today.
He obviously made some terrible posts at the beginning of the day, but he did so last game too, also he soft-blue claimed last game to and turned out to be the doc.
Hes also very active so if he's scum he'll actually slip up sooner or later.
I'd prefer lynching one of the lurkier players, sevryn, syl or mandalor right now.
Can you quote the post where I soft blue claimed? All I recall is hard claiming town alignment, and refusing to role claim (which is not a soft claim).
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On February 11 2013 14:01 warbaby wrote:
I won't claim my actual role right now (just that my alignment is not mafia rofl), but if we get to a point later (d2+) where others are considering claiming, I will not hesitate this time.
On February 11 2013 20:57 warbaby wrote:
I could give away more information (like a blue role) later on, but I haven't done that yet
Between the two of these it looks like you are saying "I'm blue but I'm not gonna out and say it". VTs traditionally have no real problem mentioning that they are VT (afaik?). You are more like "I'm town, but I won't tell you what special kind of town". Which means you are a special kind. Which is a soft claim. Even if you didn't mean it that way, at least half the thread read it that way.
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To further explain WB, the fact that you even went so far as to mention roles and blue and whatever looks bad. "I'm Town" looks fine and doesn't claim VT or blue, but "I won't tell you my role (other than I'm town)" looks leading/breadcrumby/soft-claim.
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OK I see what you mean, thanks for explaining. That wasn't my intention but I'm not gonna argue the point more.
I'm done with work for the day, so I'll catch up with the thread and will be around for the next couple hours 
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On February 13 2013 06:54 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 14:01 warbaby wrote:
I won't claim my actual role right now (just that my alignment is not mafia rofl), but if we get to a point later (d2+) where others are considering claiming, I will not hesitate this time. Show nested quote +On February 11 2013 20:57 warbaby wrote:
I could give away more information (like a blue role) later on, but I haven't done that yet Between the two of these it looks like you are saying "I'm blue but I'm not gonna out and say it". VTs traditionally have no real problem mentioning that they are VT (afaik?).
This.
If you were VT, you would've come out and said so after the pressure on all of your "trying to look like town" actions. Claiming VT has nothing to lose, as scum would rather take their chances on hitting a blue rather than a VT.
If you were VT, you would've said so.
If you were blue, you would not have tried to look ridiculously town to the point where scum would be willing to kill you off.
Therefore, I don't really believe your claim.
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However, if you were veteran, you would act as such because you would be wanting to bait the scum attacking you and saving everyone from the N1 kill. Is that your plan?
It's the only blue role where I could see you trying to look townie ridiculously hard.
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I explained why I won't role claim, but why I'm happy to alignment claim. Scum does not know my role yet. If I'm VT, then scum can skip lynching me tonight, which gives them a higher chance of hitting a blue. Claiming blue now would be insane because it would guarantee my lynch tonight. How do you not understand this?
Honestly it almost seems like you're scum, and trying to trick me into claiming my role instead of just my alignment.
Because I assume you do understand the difference between a role and an alignment.
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On February 13 2013 06:06 zarepath wrote:
Okay, the vote is in just four hours, yes?
I would really like everyone's opinion on warbaby. We certainly got away from him for a while, and he seemed less emotional, but I think we should all look at his filter again (I will be doing it, too), and decide if the second half of Day 1 changes how you see him for the first half of Day 1.
I would especially like to hear from 9-Bit, Mocheji, Sevryn, glurio, [b]warbaby[b/], Mandalor, and Sylencia.
I'll have my final read and vote before lynch time, hopefully early enough so that the last hours aren't insane.
You want my opinion on myself? I think I'm dashing and handsome.
But seriously? I've already responded as much as I care to right now about the case against me. I guess this doesn't satisfy corazon (or others), but my job isn't to satisfy corazon (and others), it's to hunt scum.
My opinion on others hasn't changed a whole lot. I think it's a bit odd glurio would take off for a movie after dinner, when there are 4 hours to lynch, seems a little odd. Is he delaying to see where the bandwagon goes? This makes him seem more like he did in the last game (as scum).
Mandalor's post about sylencia is not exactly breaking news, so I still think he's lurking pretty effectively. No new posts from sylencia or sevryn -- so I'm happy leaving my vote on sylencia for now.
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EPT
