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Day 1corazon fluff about confirmation bias and meta, and then listing lurkers
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17636349brief warbaby vs acid happens.
Sn0 asserts his belief that both warbaby and acid are trying to take control of town, rather than actually scumhunting
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17641802warbaby vs Sn0 happens.
corazon makes some useless side comments
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17639117http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642031and goes back to just listing lurkers
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17642563and calling out the penis contest
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17643306Sn0 votes, and leaves
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17646502His second vote on SkaPunk makes the wagon credible and enables others to wagon on.
Both scum and silly townie sheep can easily bandwagon.
zare actually sounds like a voice of reason amidst the whole mess
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17644643http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17648807Night 1Sn0 soft busses Cora on setup details.
Zare makes a case on Cora without relying on the setup error:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17653902Glurio and and slayalot both cast some WIFOM suspicion toward warbaby.
There is some bollocks going on about warbaby looks scummy by association with mocsta meta -- complete bollocks, I am amazed how that was even admissible to anyone.
Zare actually speaks sense here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17655668But Acid makes a late night case against warbaby.
What would a Sn0+Cora scumteam do here?
glurio and slayalot aren't very active or useful, they are not a threat, and can be manipulated.
Acid could be painted as going apeshit all over warbaby, plus he was gone for a good chunk and did not vote. safe to keep around.
AFK (later replaced by myself late in N1) was an unknown factor, could be left for later.
Zare makes reasonable, sensible arguments. Warbaby also demonstrated that he is a highly active player who will engage and spar with anyone.
Kill Zare.
He is able to remain calm, and use sound reason.
Why not warbaby? because Warbaby looks more likely to be influenceable, and it looks possible to drive a mislynch on him.
Role Check Warbaby might have happened or not. Not too important.
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Day 2The nightkill fails. Was Zare saved by a doc, or saved by a JK?
The day opens with warbaby vs acid.
Corazon tries to sound reasonable, but then FoS into warbaby for continued tunnelling
When warbaby tries to post reason for others, corazon paints it with emotional appeal:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658510http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17658553Sn0 is the first with the setup speculation:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17662395warbaby's post here is telling in hindsight:
On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 00:23 Sn0_Man wrote:
C) Town has a JailKeeper/Doctor who is a clairvoyant (this one seems the most likely).
In the case of C, however, there is an interesting distinction between having a JK and a Doc. If we have a Doc, they have a confirmed townie on their hands, although that isn't necessarily that helpful. If we have a JK, then they know that their target is EITHER mafia OR the mafia target last night. But they can't be certain which. That again is interesting.
I don't think B) could happen either, since Cakepie is the only TRULY afk player over the course of all of Night 1... although if anybody can come up with a plausible scumteam that was simply afk all night 1 I'm listening.
I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town.
Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it).
If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful.
If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town?
I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims.
"I made a lucky save. Does it make sense for me to make a claim?"
If scumteam realized this, they would have suspected warbaby to be doc. (Or they might have already had a rolecop check)
Warbaby makes a side comment about not believing in clairvoyance.
Scumteam could read this as a confirmation that "I did not see clearly, I just made a lucky save"
Sn0 latches on to the comment on clairvoyance as justification for his vote.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17663135This is complete bullshit, of course.
Zare convinces warbaby with calm reason to try making other cases. You can see why he would comply, since he had zare confirmed town.
I appear and mention the fact that JK blocks result in a notification.
This is news to Sn0. Scumteam now knows that they were not blocked by JK.
He figures out the implications:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665292As Acid makes his reappearance, Corazon comes in to offer a polar choice: Lynch either WB or Acid.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665711At 26 hours to go, he just wants to mislynch either of the guys who are actively prying around. It is convenient that they tunnel one another.
Continuing lack of JK claim or roleblocked claims increases confidence of scumteam that they know the setup
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665775http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17665787Acid vs Corazon happens. There is a lot of WIFOM.
Zare starts casting some real suspicions against Corazon, backed by a strong read of hypocrisy from Corazon
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673093Sn0 rushes to dismiss the possibility of a Corazon wagon
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673269Zare also posts a case on warbaby.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673310Sn0 likes this case much better!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673365At the same time there is some suspicion cast lightly toward Zare:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17673448http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17674187Warbaby falls back to a lurker lynch. Gets goaded into making a very ill-advised softclaim.
Sn0 presses him for a hard claim. Scum wants blue to out!
Unfortunately there is no way out of it. Acid and zare are also pressing for the claim.
Glurio's vote adds pressure since he actually looks like might get lynched.
Warbay claims at January 31 2013 06:04.zare unvotes, but slaylot votes on.
the four votes on warbaby are Acid, Sn0, glurio, Slayalot.
Corazon refuses to move onto warbaby. He needs to stay off the wagon for now
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676374Sn0 backs him up:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676429But then there is actually some momentum toward a Corazon wagon.
As momentum builds, Sn0 tries to save Cora again:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17676827It gets to:
warbaby (3):
Acid, Sn0,
zarepath, glurio, Slayalot
Corazon (3): Acid, zarepath, warbaby
Corazon shits his pants. There are 8 players, he NEEDS to vote warbaby to bring it to 4, because he has no way of knowing what I would do.
Acid points out that Sn0 has been crumbing Cora:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17677383Except, Acid, those are not breadcrumbs at all.
It is only a crumb if Sn0 used steganography in N1 to indicate that he intended to check Cora.
This is what real crumbs look like:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=73#1460What happens is that this presents an opening to Sn0 Cora scumteam -- they can try to risk a fakeclaim here to save Cora.
It is actually a modersately safe claim, because they are fairly certain that there is no JK.
They will risk a possible cop counterclaim, because no one has come out with a cop claim yet, despite the whole day.
The bet is this: a cop would know that by claiming, there would be a confirmed doc+cop setup, the strongest setup possible.
The game then becomes a simple follow-the cop. With D1+D2 mislynch, N1 nokill, and N2 doc kill, the cop would have 3 confirmed reads (2 from cop checks, one is Zare=town) in a 6 player game on D3. It would be easy!
The lack of this makes it quite safe for Sn0 to cop claim.
The problem is, he insists on not seeing the simple follow-the-cop for the win.
Even if warbaby is scum with doc fakeclaim, we'd have dead cop with a town read on Cora, and a confirmed scum in warbaby.. also EZ-PZ.
This is what makes Sn0's failure to switch off warbaby really scummy.
Night 2Cora finds himself in a bad position, so he throws shit at zare:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17679171We all call him out for it.
Sn0+cora worry that if Sn0 stays alive, he will get lynched because town won't believe in a situation that scum does not kill the cop claim.
My posts and reasoning leaves them a way out of the situation -- but there does not look like there is enough controversy around Sn0. Only glurio threw some shit at Sn0.
So, Cora tries stupid convoluted tricks to give plausibility to the scenario that Sn0 lives.
The expected happens: we lose a confirmed town.
But Zare points out one important thing
On February 01 2013 10:00 zarepath wrote:
If Sn0_Man is not killed, I really suggest that you look at his filter, and the thread leading up to his cop claim. He only cop claimed after Cora was under a lot of attack and Acid is the one who suggested that he was breadcrumbing and cop claiming before he actually cop claimed -- and his earlier posts make it seem as though he didn't know the setup blue possibilities despite bieng cop. His breadcrumbs aren't entirely justified.
And his late post seems SUPER scummy. The thing is, I can totally see and understand a scum team realizing that if they don't do something, they're pretty much done for, and they ahve to take the 1-in-3 chance (closer to 1-in-2 because there was no evidence of a JK) to cop claim. It wasn't really meditated; Acid kind of just forced him into it (incidentally), and it was worth the risk.
And like I already said a couple of times, those aren't even real breadcrumbs.
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Day 3Sn0 and Cora won't work with me, shit fest happens.
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EPT
