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On January 31 2013 04:41 RockHydra wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 03:10 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
So who do you think is that scum hydra?
If you are not the scum hydra, at least help us get him.
Also that's the truth marv. Or rather it's something I know WILL happen in this game (it's kind of inevitable). You can't just say "Fuck you just make a decent read on me, if you don't it's your fault", mafia doesn't work like that.
/G I find this whole "people assume there must be a scum hydra" thing of yours to be suspicious. I don't think anyone specifically said there must be a scum hydra. It seems like you are trying to push the discussion in a certain direction without a good reason. Is it likely that there is a scum hydra? Yes, because there are so many hydra's. Is it unlikely there is no scum hydra? Not very unlikely. (12%) It is as likely a lone player is scum, as that a hydra is scum, so why look at hydra's only? /zebezt
Well, I'd like to see that math of yours. I got that there is a 9% chance no hydra is scum, and that's if scum are chosen uniformly (I might have gotten it wrong though)
Take away uniformity to take balance and stuff into account, and that chance is even smaller.
Take into account that Nova doesn't seem to be scum, thus that the only way no hydra is scum is if both Stutters+Crossfire are scum, and that chance goes even lower and lower.
Also lol:
I find this whole "people assume there must be a scum hydra" thing of yours to be suspicious.
If I am scum, then what I'm saying is 100% true isn't it?
I want to put attention on hydras, and not let anybody fly under the radar. Again (I've said this like 10 times), so we don't repeat what happened last game.
I won't 100% oppose a Stutters+Crossfire scumteam though, if there is evidence for such. And I'd probably not oppose it after someone flips, not before most likely.
/G
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On January 30 2013 02:27 Nova_Terra wrote:
I am not quite OK with revealing our decks, not for my own sake, but because if anyone decided to run life gain cards, they'd have little hope of avoiding scum targets. I'm fine with revealing decks, for instance my own, but I don't feel that it should necessarily be a requirement.
this is silly, someone else pointed it out before, but life gain is so weak in this format that i doubt scum would be worried, still that could be explained by him not knowing much about mtg, null leaning scum a little bit tell.
On January 30 2013 02:47 Nova_Terra wrote:
2 things before dinner:
I feel that ThePoster is doing a fine job, and has been attempting to do more actual scumhunting and pro-town things than the rest of us. Compared to CH, where I find that much if not most of the time he has been trying to explain why he feels that Minds Aglow is good for the entire town, not only for him. the second thing is related to this:
How is Minds Aglow particularly pro town? If we have to discard back to 7 anyway, I don't like giving CH 10 zombies. Why? Because if he gets 10 zombies before we can get anything that could even come close to rivaling that and he turns out to be scum, we're screwed. Thats like mafia having 30 kp, and we couldnt even be sure if he IS scum because he could just target "scummy" town players. kill 2 of them, and the games like, over. unless someone draws some miracle, that is.
sucking up to gonzaw, who has a history of being partial towards people who suck up to him (see last mtg mafia), this is scummy.
also misunderstanding the importance of card advantage but that's okay because not everyone has studied mtg theory, this is null.
not wanting acro to get zombies is fine but not a towntell or a scumtell/
On January 30 2013 03:17 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 02:50 BinOnFire wrote:You must have missed my earlier post on the extended plan involving Minds Aglow. I'll dig it up for you: On January 29 2013 09:45 BinOnFire wrote:
To further expand on plan 1)
Cast Minds Aglow T1, hope to hit Collective Voyage (77% if we do all draw ~10 cards), Collective Voyage T2, everyone has ~20 lands in play for T3. Everyone drawing cards might not be pro-town, I agree, but everyone having upwards of 20 land by turn 3 is most assuredly good for us: even if the scum players can kill two of us immediately, it's still a 5v2, with a pretty clear indicator of alignment. Durr. Completely misread Collective Voyage. Heres the thing. I have a very low amount of basic lands, and from what i can tell, CH has none. what would this mean? Tons of zombies. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that we would know who the scum are even if we did end up with 7 players left, and I would think that we may be in a similar situation (of not knowing who the scum are) then. I would agree with using Collective Voyage on a smaller scale, but 20 lands each? I think we're begging for trouble. The strength of town is their numbers and collective majority, all we would end up doing is making it easier for people who make one slightly scummy mistake to get killed. We have good minds here, lets figure it out.
what
what
"powering up town is bad because town can kill people more easily and they might be wrong" the solution to that is to not be wrong. it's okay to oppose powering up individual players if you think they might be scum or if you think they are likely to use that power impulsively to kill townies. it's not okay to oppose powering up town as a whole.
On January 30 2013 07:03 Nova_Terra wrote:
Yes, i have a slight suspicion of stutters for his early posting, which is only slight as if hes at work it makes sense, and slight suspicion of crossfire for the reason already said.
I am not particularly suspicious of Aperture Science, as i feel they/he would be acting differently if he was scum. I do understand how grey's post rubbed a bit weird, but i think that it was less of a scum problem than a phrasing problem.
nice jumping in to share widespread town sentiment without providing any reasoning. like, i dont see anywhere above here in your filter you saying that crossfire is scum or explaining this suspicion.
On January 30 2013 07:22 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 07:10 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Not significant posting is indicative of them as players though, not of them as scum. In fact you'll find that stutters has never had a game of scum on TL but pulls this useless bullshit all the time. Do you think both of Stutters and Xfire could be scum? Who else do you find scummy?
P The probability of them both being scum and acting like that is low. I'm more suspicious of crossfire than stutters. I'm currently looking at Marv+s&b's filter, and i'm seeing things that i dont like. I'd love it if we could all take a look at their filter, because i'm not sure if what im finding scummy is just (marv's?) typical posting style or if it is actually scummy. Also, there is the s&b policy post, which looked to me like a cut and pasted prepared "See im doing stuff!" type post. With relevant informatiOn added in after, of course.
ditto the above, way to not actually say anything. "marvs typical posting style" lolwut, there's no way you havent seen at least a couple other games from him, hes ubiquitous. also there's literally no explanation of what nova finds scummy about marvs posts so far. and how the crap was my policy post cut and pasted? except that its the same policy i proposed last time i was town in an mtg game?
On January 30 2013 08:04 Nova_Terra wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 07:53 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Well Nova, who do you think could be scum from the hydras? I.e who are you the most suspicious of them?
/G Marv+ s&b
okay reasons would be nice
On January 30 2013 16:35 Nova_Terra wrote:
As i said, a analysis on suck will be forthcoming. Also i feel like many of those are self explanatory
lolk
On January 31 2013 03:51 Nova_Terra wrote:
Hey guys, popping in to give an update, had a rough afternoon and thought i might be getting fired from my work as my boss just left the company and everyone is running around like chickens with their heads cut off. I still find marv/s&B to be the most likely scum, and i will elaborate on this tonight at any rate. I really need a cold shower and some food right now though.
well this sucks we should wait a few days before we kill him. good thing we have to. also note that this is only an explanation for his recent absence not for his earlier terrible and scummy posting.
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Basically there's two likely possible scumteams: hydra+maverick and hydra+hydra. in the previous sentence, which word appeared more, hydra or maverick? that what kind of player we should focus on to find scum.
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On January 31 2013 04:44 RockHydra wrote:
EBWOP: zomg my math seems to be off.. make that 14%
Actually, the chance of 2 non-hydras being scum is 1/3 * 1/4 = 1/12 = 8.25%
Then again, pick 3 people randomly in this game. The chance that two of them are scum is 1/3 * 1/4, so that is not really an argument for a hydra being scum.
What IS an argument for a hydra being scum is that it seems unlikely to put all the veterans in the town team and leave scum with the newbies. However, Artanis might have used deck power to balance out newbieness. Still, I think it's likely at least one of the veteran hydras is scum... and I am increasingly sure it's Marv/SnB.
/Acro
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On January 31 2013 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, I'm done reading Bin and it was rather unproductive.
It confirmed to me that Oats is all over the map. The scum explanation is as above: he throws oil on pointless conversations, hoping their ignition derails town. The town explanation is that he's a newbie who has no real clue what he is doing. Honestly, the former explanation requires Oats to be quite a lot more devious than I have seen from him in previous games. In CT he was also bullshitting his way around and making stupid posts. I have not yet read that newbie game where he was scum and got lynched D1, which insofar as I know is his only scum game.
MG brings up some good points about SnB (not playing to his town meta) and Marv (pointless theatrics, overdoing his town read on Bin), which I find myself agreeing with. Also, his MTG play seems town motivated, although I don't buy that he'd play the deck any differently as scum. He needs his lands out to do anything, and giving town lots of creatures is fine as long as you can avoid them attacking you (by looking like a super pro-town plan maker). I would like to see more in the line of his posts at SnB and less in the line of explaining how pro-town his plan is. If his strong card requires him to have 22 mana, he'd need to get that land out asap anyway.
This makes me null, with a slight lean towards town. Now back to SnB/Marv.
/Acro
Ok, I am now suspicious of Acro. Unlike MG he knows my play and if he really thinks what I did on Bin is at all alignment indicative of me, he's either being stupid or he's mafia.
- marvelbabe
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EBWOP 8.33%, sorry. Don't let me do this off by heart any more 
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On January 31 2013 05:07 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, I'm done reading Bin and it was rather unproductive.
It confirmed to me that Oats is all over the map. The scum explanation is as above: he throws oil on pointless conversations, hoping their ignition derails town. The town explanation is that he's a newbie who has no real clue what he is doing. Honestly, the former explanation requires Oats to be quite a lot more devious than I have seen from him in previous games. In CT he was also bullshitting his way around and making stupid posts. I have not yet read that newbie game where he was scum and got lynched D1, which insofar as I know is his only scum game.
MG brings up some good points about SnB (not playing to his town meta) and Marv (pointless theatrics, overdoing his town read on Bin), which I find myself agreeing with. Also, his MTG play seems town motivated, although I don't buy that he'd play the deck any differently as scum. He needs his lands out to do anything, and giving town lots of creatures is fine as long as you can avoid them attacking you (by looking like a super pro-town plan maker). I would like to see more in the line of his posts at SnB and less in the line of explaining how pro-town his plan is. If his strong card requires him to have 22 mana, he'd need to get that land out asap anyway.
This makes me null, with a slight lean towards town. Now back to SnB/Marv.
/Acro Ok, I am now suspicious of Acro. Unlike MG he knows my play and if he really thinks what I did on Bin is at all alignment indicative of me, he's either being stupid or he's mafia. - marvelbabe
lolk
~dandel
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On January 31 2013 05:01 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 04:41 RockHydra wrote:On January 31 2013 03:10 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
So who do you think is that scum hydra?
If you are not the scum hydra, at least help us get him.
Also that's the truth marv. Or rather it's something I know WILL happen in this game (it's kind of inevitable). You can't just say "Fuck you just make a decent read on me, if you don't it's your fault", mafia doesn't work like that.
/G I find this whole "people assume there must be a scum hydra" thing of yours to be suspicious. I don't think anyone specifically said there must be a scum hydra. It seems like you are trying to push the discussion in a certain direction without a good reason. Is it likely that there is a scum hydra? Yes, because there are so many hydra's. Is it unlikely there is no scum hydra? Not very unlikely. (12%) It is as likely a lone player is scum, as that a hydra is scum, so why look at hydra's only? /zebezt Well, I'd like to see that math of yours. I got that there is a 9% chance no hydra is scum, and that's if scum are chosen uniformly (I might have gotten it wrong though) Take away uniformity to take balance and stuff into account, and that chance is even smaller. Take into account that Nova doesn't seem to be scum, thus that the only way no hydra is scum is if both Stutters+Crossfire are scum, and that chance goes even lower and lower. Also lol: Show nested quote +I find this whole "people assume there must be a scum hydra" thing of yours to be suspicious. If I am scum, then what I'm saying is 100% true isn't it? I want to put attention on hydras, and not let anybody fly under the radar. Again (I've said this like 10 times), so we don't repeat what happened last game. I won't 100% oppose a Stutters+Crossfire scumteam though, if there is evidence for such. And I'd probably not oppose it after someone flips, not before most likely. /G
Bleh.. I kinda forgot you are a hydra too, since you never sign your posts 
Also I was wrong on the math. *sigh
I should sleep early tonight.
On third attempt I arrive at 8% (3/9)*(2/8) I might be off on that again though.
Why do you think Nova is not scum? I just looked through his filter
He did not post a whole lot. Did not scumhunt very hard. Made some "me too" posts.
Didn't really scream "town" to me
/zebezt
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ah great. You guys agree with me now. Math brings people together :D
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On January 31 2013 05:07 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, I'm done reading Bin and it was rather unproductive.
It confirmed to me that Oats is all over the map. The scum explanation is as above: he throws oil on pointless conversations, hoping their ignition derails town. The town explanation is that he's a newbie who has no real clue what he is doing. Honestly, the former explanation requires Oats to be quite a lot more devious than I have seen from him in previous games. In CT he was also bullshitting his way around and making stupid posts. I have not yet read that newbie game where he was scum and got lynched D1, which insofar as I know is his only scum game.
MG brings up some good points about SnB (not playing to his town meta) and Marv (pointless theatrics, overdoing his town read on Bin), which I find myself agreeing with. Also, his MTG play seems town motivated, although I don't buy that he'd play the deck any differently as scum. He needs his lands out to do anything, and giving town lots of creatures is fine as long as you can avoid them attacking you (by looking like a super pro-town plan maker). I would like to see more in the line of his posts at SnB and less in the line of explaining how pro-town his plan is. If his strong card requires him to have 22 mana, he'd need to get that land out asap anyway.
This makes me null, with a slight lean towards town. Now back to SnB/Marv.
/Acro Ok, I am now suspicious of Acro. Unlike MG he knows my play and if he really thinks what I did on Bin is at all alignment indicative of me, he's either being stupid or he's mafia. - marvelbabe
It was just something I picked up from doing my own cutesy QT talk. I might be overestimating you. What I realized while writing that up is that you used that as a reason for labeling him town. Now, you are a good enough player to realize that if you can make up a cute QT talk for why it makes no sense from a scum point of view, you SHOULD immediately jump to the conclusion that the same QT talk makes no sense from a town (hydra) point of view.
That should lead you to realize that that whole interchange is null, not townie. Yet, you went ahead with your blatant town read anyway. Maybe I'm overestimating your town play, or maybe you are scum who is using his prior knowledge about Bin's alignment and your cute QT convo is exactly that: theatrics. In that case I wouldn't expect you to put as much thought into it and you might overlook the fact that a convo between the two hydra heads about the topic makes equally little sense from a town point of view.
/Acro
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Btw.. is that a thing, where the OP decides to make the teams fair by having an experienced scum?
Is that likely to happen?
/zebezt
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Nova seems to be playing like his previous game (MTG 1)
Here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=345422&user=255225
He does the whole "one-liner" thing a lot, and I see his attitude is the same. His posts don't show hesitation in my mind, or fear of post, etc, specially one-liners that have to do with catching scum or pressuring people and the like (not just setup speculation)
His "some guys are null" comment struck me as townie. He didn't use any wishy-washy stance or anything as I'd expect (maybe say stuff like "I dunno he seems townie because of X but scummy because of Y" and that shit).
Another townie thing that struck me was him being so "eager" and enthusiastic when I posted that "Suck and Crossfire's posts seem weird" comment. I don't really see scum being so jumpy on it, and immediately promise analysis on Suck.
He's basically giving me the same feeling he did last game, and based on meta him not being "useful" is not telling (and may actually be a town tell...although I don't know any game he was scum in)
/G
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On January 31 2013 05:16 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 05:07 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:On January 31 2013 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, I'm done reading Bin and it was rather unproductive.
It confirmed to me that Oats is all over the map. The scum explanation is as above: he throws oil on pointless conversations, hoping their ignition derails town. The town explanation is that he's a newbie who has no real clue what he is doing. Honestly, the former explanation requires Oats to be quite a lot more devious than I have seen from him in previous games. In CT he was also bullshitting his way around and making stupid posts. I have not yet read that newbie game where he was scum and got lynched D1, which insofar as I know is his only scum game.
MG brings up some good points about SnB (not playing to his town meta) and Marv (pointless theatrics, overdoing his town read on Bin), which I find myself agreeing with. Also, his MTG play seems town motivated, although I don't buy that he'd play the deck any differently as scum. He needs his lands out to do anything, and giving town lots of creatures is fine as long as you can avoid them attacking you (by looking like a super pro-town plan maker). I would like to see more in the line of his posts at SnB and less in the line of explaining how pro-town his plan is. If his strong card requires him to have 22 mana, he'd need to get that land out asap anyway.
This makes me null, with a slight lean towards town. Now back to SnB/Marv.
/Acro Ok, I am now suspicious of Acro. Unlike MG he knows my play and if he really thinks what I did on Bin is at all alignment indicative of me, he's either being stupid or he's mafia. - marvelbabe It was just something I picked up from doing my own cutesy QT talk. I might be overestimating you. What I realized while writing that up is that you used that as a reason for labeling him town. Now, you are a good enough player to realize that if you can make up a cute QT talk for why it makes no sense from a scum point of view, you SHOULD immediately jump to the conclusion that the same QT talk makes no sense from a town (hydra) point of view. That should lead you to realize that that whole interchange is null, not townie. Yet, you went ahead with your blatant town read anyway. Maybe I'm overestimating your town play, or maybe you are scum who is using his prior knowledge about Bin's alignment and your cute QT convo is exactly that: theatrics. In that case I wouldn't expect you to put as much thought into it and you might overlook the fact that a convo between the two hydra heads about the topic makes equally little sense from a town point of view. /Acro
It means you fail at analysis, and you overestimate yourself. As mafia, playing a card like MG played is obviously a pretty big deal, as it has large implications and certainly seems pro-town. There really would have to have been a specific conversation about it if they were mafia, I think.
On the other hand, as town, MG would just be playing this card because it's good for town, and the need to plan it out is far less.
To me it seems pretty obvious that a mafia Bin would have talked this over and made sure they were united far more than a town Bin. That is why I consider it somewhat of a town tell, not a null tell.
This is somewhat analogous to how in normal games, mafia players usually post and stuff by themselves, but for big decisions like who they're looking to mislynch the next day or who they're going to NK, they're going to talk about it.
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Damn S&B, I don't know what to think of you
Marv gives me slight town feels with his attitude (attitude alone though, not his play, i.e lack of scumhunting and taking a strong position in town), but you gave me so many "bad" feelings dude.
Like you going against Nova up there, and having that "I don't give a fuck" attitude.
Let's start somewhere: Skim Nova's filter from the previous game. Do you still find him scummy? Do you agree with what I've said a few posts back?
/G
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On January 31 2013 05:23 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Damn S&B, I don't know what to think of you
Marv gives me slight town feels with his attitude (attitude alone though, not his play, i.e lack of scumhunting and taking a strong position in town), but you gave me so many "bad" feelings dude.
Like you going against Nova up there, and having that "I don't give a fuck" attitude.
Let's start somewhere: Skim Nova's filter from the previous game. Do you still find him scummy? Do you agree with what I've said a few posts back?
/G
Actually me and s&b are talking atm, and I do find Nova quite scummy. I pointed out something I didn't like earlier in the thread and said why I didn't like it.
His previous game was indeed mostly one-liners, but his stance was always perfectly clear. Here me/s&b are scummy for unspecified, or weak reasons, with more to come. There's a lack of decisiveness compared to his last game.
- marv
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@Rock: What do you think of Suck? You haven't mentioned them in that "thoughts" post of yours.
Also again, if you had to choose, which one of Nova/Cross/Stutters is scum and why? Or if you think all 3 are town, explain to me why you think Cross is town
On January 31 2013 05:06 Aperture Science wrote:
Basically there's two likely possible scumteams: hydra+maverick and hydra+hydra. in the previous sentence, which word appeared more, hydra or maverick? that what kind of player we should focus on to find scum.
What's your "updated" read on Bin?
What about the other hydras?
If you guys are going against Nova+Stutters/etc, remember: It's VERY unlikely 2 of them are scum.
Thus, if you find Nova suspicious, you basically find Stutters and Crossfire like confirmed town. Same with the other 2.
Thus, if you put suspicion on any of them, before spouting stuff in the thread (or rather before actively FoSing any of them), think about how that changes your read on Stutters/Crossfire, and see if it's consistent and you agree.
If you think something is wrong, then better reconsider your initial push (unless you want to pressure the guy, which is fine I guess)
I am suspicious of Crossfire, and I don't see any inconsistencies with my reads on Nova and Stutters, thus I'm slightly more confident in that read.
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Well Suck, apparently this "lack of reasons" is explained by some IRL stuff.
I do want to wait to see what he pulls up, although I don't think it'll surprise me or anything.
Last game, he said "Kill Fulla, and maybe Zealos/Grey" on T1 and that's it regarding what he was pushing. I don't see much change in his "decisiveness" from there, can you point that out?
Also again, how does this change your read on Stutters and Crossfire?
/G
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On January 31 2013 04:29 Clockwork Hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 04:27 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Marv, baby, talk to me about how you read hopeless right now. I need some help.
P I had thought you prided yourself on being able to read hopeless relatively well? ~dandel
And I thought you knew how to play mafia.
Marv, I want to talk to yo about this, what is your read on Hopeless and why? I want someone to talk this out with me and you are the man for the job.
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EPT
